Possibilty of making a bowl game at 5-7

[Go Gophers Rah]

Two weeks ago, I saw an article about Nebraska's chances of making a bowl game at 5-7. No I find this one from last week about Indiana. It would seem that the same would apply to us:

http://www.crimsonquarry.com/2015/11/3/9663910/indiana-and-other-college-football-teams-could-make-a-bowl-game-at-5

What it comes down to is:
- there may not be enough "bowl eligible" teams to fill all the bowl spots (80)
- If not, there is a system for figuring which non bowl-eligible teams would get the nod, it goes like this:
1) 6-6 teams with a win over an FCS team that does not give out the maximum scholarships (not applicable this year)
2) 6-6 teams with 2 wins over FCS teams (no longer applicable this year)
3) 6-7 teams with one loss coming in a conference championship (could be a possibility for a team in the Mountain West - west division)
4) 6-7 teams that play a 13 game schedule (only Colorado would apply, but they'd need wins against either USC or Utah in add'n to Wazzou)
5) Bowl Eligible teams in their "transition" to FBS period (no-body can qualify this year)
6) 5-7 teams in order of their APR rankings (this is where it would apply to us)

Currently we are tied for 12th on the list APR rankings of teams on the bubble. Some of those teams will surely qualify (like Louisville or Utah State who only need 1 win and have winnable games left) and some will lose to many to be considered (like Vanderbilt who needs to win out against a tough schedule because one of their wins was versus FCS).

My guess is that we will end up tied for 3rd or 4th on this list, and that they will need at least a couple of these teams to fill out the bowl schedule.

Nobody likes the idea of playing in a bowl with a 5-7 record, but I would say its probably better than not playing in a bowl at all (extra practice and extends the bowl streak to 4 in a row - which could play well in recruiting).

 

[dannygopher9100]

Where can you find the APR rankings.

 

[Go Gophers Rah]

The linked article as some of the key ones.

 

[dannygopher9100]

It will be a close one I think.

 

[Ski U Mah 55]

No team below .500 should be rewarded with a bowl game, absolutely absurd.

 

[SelectionSunday]

The 5-7 teams should have play-ins to earn those bowl spots. The drama, the passion, the excitement to get that all important 6th win and a chance to play again.

 

[BarnBoy]

No team below .500 should be rewarded with a bowl game, absolutely absurd.

Only the top bowl games are actually rewards. This year, 78 teams will "earn a bowl game" and get an extra month of practice and exposure for their program.

It's best to stop thinking of lower tier bowl games as rewards. It's just part of the college football landscape arms race these days and we should absolutely participate, regardless of record.

If the location and bowl name don't do it for you, don't go.

There will be 39 bowls in 2014, including the College Football Playoff championship game, meaning 76 teams will be needed. By 2015, there will be 40 bowls with 78 teams needed. There were 79 eligible teams last year for 70 slots.

 

[Go4]

any scenarios where a 4-8 team gets picked?

 

[Ski U Mah 55]

Only the top bowl games are actually rewards. This year, 78 teams will "earn a bowl game" and get an extra month of practice and exposure for their program.

It's best to stop thinking of lower tier bowl games as rewards. It's just part of the college football landscape arms race these days and we should absolutely participate, regardless of record.

If the location and bowl name don't do it for you, don't go.

Just let everyone go to a bowl game, participation awards and self esteem for everyone!

 

[howeda7]

The 5-7 teams should have play-ins to earn those bowl spots. The drama, the passion, the excitement to get that all important 6th win and a chance to play again.

It would rival the excitement of the CBI. The CIT for sure...

 

[disco]

Only the top bowl games are actually rewards. This year, 78 teams will "earn a bowl game" and get an extra month of practice and exposure for their program.

It's best to stop thinking of lower tier bowl games as rewards. It's just part of the college football landscape arms race these days and we should absolutely participate, regardless of record.

If the location and bowl name don't do it for you, don't go.

Well-stated. They're just an extra non-conference exhibition game. A chance to play against a team you wouldn't normally play.

 

[BilldGopher]

By any other name it's still a bowl game.

Rather win the next 3 and be 7-5 but if in the end we're at whatever bowl at 5-7, then that's good too because we've got to win one more even to get to that.

And of course there's the chance to end the season at 6-7...even better.

Coming into the season I thought we'd be in Tampa or Jacksonville. Disappointing but the extra practices are huge.

 

[BarnBoy]

Just let everyone go to a bowl game, participation awards and self esteem for everyone!

Good retort. You forgot to add, "Get off my lawn." Did you actually read my reply?

 

[Bayfieldgopher]

Billd and Barnboy get it.

Sounds like getting a bunch of extra practices in December and a chance to play one more game isn't important to some Gopher "fans"! Wow! I find that hard to believe.

 

[2nd Degree Gopher]

I totally understand people who don't have any interest in bowl games between teams with mediocre records. If that doesn't interest you, ignore them. What I don't understand is why some people rail against the existence of those games. I don't enjoy the endless string of holiday movies on ABC Family Channel between Thanksgiving and Christmas, but it would never occur to me to get worked up about it. I just don't watch. It's hard to dispute that the practices are helpful, especially for teams with a lot of inexperienced players or, in our case, possibly a new head coach who might want to tweak some things before spring ball.

 

[tmvander]

It's fine that some people find the 5-7 bowl a joke but I welcome it. The way this season has gone with injuries, a coach having to leave mid season, and a hectic schedule I say bring on a bowl game if we can get one.

With that being said we can scoreboard watch a little. I read the article above but am still a little behind on things. Who are the teams we really want to lose?

 

[Ski U Mah 55]

Good retort. You forgot to add, "Get off my lawn." Did you actually read my reply?

Yes, giving in to the "arms race" is part of the problem with college football.

 

[saintpaulguy]

I can't wait to hear how we don't travel well when we get selected for the Quick Lane Bowl against another 5-7 team.

 

[BarnBoy]

Yes, giving in to the "arms race" is part of the problem with college football.

Your dislike of lower tier bowl games and desire to be idealistic isn't going to change anything.

There will be 78 teams invited to a bowl game. Let's be one of them so our team can get an extra month of practice like the other 77 teams.

Or should we stage a sit-in?

I'll get off your lawn now.

 

[Ski U Mah 55]

Your dislike of lower tier bowl games and desire to be idealistic isn't going to change anything.

There will be 78 teams invited to a bowl game. Let's be one of them so our team can get an extra month of practice like the other 77 teams.

Or should we stage a sit-in?

I'll get off your lawn now.

Obviously that isn't going to change the direction things are going, but that doesn't mean you just accept it. Also, I don't have a lawn, and I'm not a big fan of sit-ins but thanks for offering.

 

[highwayman]

Zero chance of bowl game at 5-7. Zero.

 

[Bayfieldgopher]

Just let everyone go to a bowl game, participation awards and self esteem for everyone!

No.

Just those that meet the criteria to be eligible for a bowl game.

 

[Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0]

Just win the last 3 and remove any question like this.

 

[RodentRampage]

There are 51 bowl-elligible teams right now. Another 19 teams have 5 wins. 21 teams have 4 wins. That means at least 6 of the teams currently with 4 wins will be going to bowl games. There's a good chance that we won't have 6 of those teams won't win two more, and some of the teams with 5 wins might lose out.

Sent from my XT1031 using Tapatalk

 

[Jike Spingleton]

There are 51 bowl-elligible teams right now. Another 19 teams have 5 wins. 21 teams have 4 wins. That means at least 6 of the teams currently with 4 wins will be going to bowl games. There's a good chance that we won't have 6 of those teams won't win two more, and some of the teams with 5 wins might lose out.

It's going to be very, very close on having enough six-win teams to fill every bowl game. Right now, I forecast there being one extra team from the MAC -- either Akron or Buffalo -- after every eligible team is placed. And I might be on the optimistic side because I still think three out of Minnesota/Nebraska/Illinois/Indiana become eligible.

 

[BAJJERFAN]

It's going to be very, very close on having enough six-win teams to fill every bowl game. Right now, I forecast there being one extra team from the MAC -- either Akron or Buffalo -- after every eligible team is placed. And I might be on the optimistic side because I still think three out of Minnesota/Nebraska/Illinois/Indiana become eligible.

Per the BTN pundits a couple weeks ago, IIRC there could be as many as ten 5-7 teams with bowl bids.

 

[Jike Spingleton]

Per the BTN pundits a couple weeks ago, IIRC there could be as many as ten 5-7 teams with bowl bids.

That certainly will not happen. The Pac-12, Mountain West and MAC will have a surplus of eligible teams. The Big 12 will fall short, the SEC and ACC likely will by one each, and we'll see about the Big Ten. It will come close to evening out.

 

[disco]

That certainly will not happen. The Pac-12, Mountain West and MAC will have a surplus of eligible teams. The Big 12 will fall short, the SEC and ACC likely will by one each, and we'll see about the Big Ten. It will come close to evening out.

Right, but how does that work when bowls are contracted with certain conferences. Can they go out and get some directional Sun Belt team that's 6-5 to fill a slot?

 

[Jike Spingleton]

Right, but how does that work when bowls are contracted with certain conferences. Can they go out and get some directional Sun Belt team that's 6-5 to fill a slot?

Many times, the smaller conferences have secondary agreements with lower-level bowl games to provide a team should that bowl's primary conference fail to do so. An example is the Mountain West, which this year will send one of its surplus teams to the Cactus Bowl in Phoenix when the Big 12 fails to have enough eligible teams. The MAC will send one of its surplus teams to the Poinsettia Bowl since Army will not be eligible.

The Independence Bowl is likely going to miss out on both of its tie-ins (SEC and ACC). They have a secondary agreement with Conference USA, but barring some upsets, C-USA will not have an extra team available. At that point, they would take whichever 6-6 teams are remaining, including directional Sun Belt schools (this is how that game ended up with Louisiana-Monroe vs. Ohio a few years back). The Pac-12 had a surplus of teams two years ago and Arizona ended up in the Independence Bowl to fill the SEC's vacated spot -- I think that will happen again with someone from a group of Washington/Arizona/Arizona State. Another one of those teams can go to the Heart of Dallas Bowl, which will not have a Big 12 team available.

The Big Ten is the conference with the most question marks. I have Nebraska beating Iowa to get to six wins, and I have Indiana winning on the road against Maryland and Purdue to get to six wins. Obviously, those are far from sure things. If those fail to happen, or if Minnesota and Illinois cannot get to six wins, we could see one or two 5-7 teams go bowling.

 

[Go Gophers Rah]

Okay, I have too much time on my hands this morning, so I am trying to analyze this.

There are 80 bowl spots to be filled.
Thus far, I count 69 bowl-eligible teams (this morning’s Strib says 71, but I don’t think Appalachian State and Georgia Southern can play in a bowl because they’re in their 1st year of “transition” to FBS).

That leaves 11 spots to be filled. There are 13 teams that need just one more win to get in: Gophers, S. Alabama, Nebraska, Vanderbilt, VaTech, IU, Washington, Mizzou, E Carolina, Tulsa, Buffalo, San Jose St and Kentucky.

There are also 4 teams who have 2 games left to play and would need to win both to get to 6 wins: K-State, Texas, Louisiana- Lafayette & Ga State.

If we were to lose to the badgers, then there are a handful of teams that would still get chosen ahead of us even if they are 5-7 too; because they have better APR scores. Those teams are: Nebraska, Vanderbilt, VaTech, IU, Washington and Mizzou. So we have no rooting interest there. I actually hope they all win, so that there would be as few 5-7 teams as possible.

So if we lose, then the 6 teams above with better APR spots would get in, leaving 5 spots left.

So the teams we really want to lose (and their remaining opponents) are:
S. Alabama (Georgia Southern and Appy St)
East Carolina (Cincy)
Tulsa (Tulane)
Buffalo (UMass)
San Jose St (Boise St)
UK (Louisville)
K-State (Kansas and West Va)
Texas (T-Tech or Baylor)
Georgia State (Troy or Georgia Southern)
Louisiana-Lafayette (Appy St or Troy)
We would also want Maryland to beat Rutgers, because a 5-7 Rutgers team has a better APR than a 5-7 Gophers team).

So, if the above teams go 7-9 (or worse) in their final 16 games, we should get a bowl spot at 5-7 (I think).