Possibilities, Probabilities and Where We Really Stand

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RememberMurray

RememberMurray

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Objectively:

Minnesota, at 10-2 (7-2), is tied for second-best record in the B1G (with Penn State). That record puts the Gophers ahead of Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. This represents rarified air for the Gophers.

But... where do we really stand? And what can we realistically expect, going forward?

My thoughts:

Ohio State stands alone in our conference. No one can seriously threaten them, right now.

Right now, Wisconsin might stand second. They're tough, and they've maintained a high standard, but they're clearly a notch below the Buckeyes.

Minnesota — today, right now — might actually stand third, or at least part of a grouping loosely tied for third. Penn State, Iowa and Michigan are in the same tier with the Gophers, right now.

Going forward, Minnesota appears to have serious forward momentum. We're new to this. We're excited. The team has an amazing energy and enthusiasm surrounding it. The future looks enticing and bright. Goals have been set at a new, higher level.

Going forward, it seems likely that Wisconsin and Iowa will remain... Wisconsin and Iowa.

Michigan appears to be at a crossroads with Harbaugh. Hard to tell what will happen, going forward.

Penn State seems to have carved out their niche. I would expect much of the same, going forward.

Ohio State...

Is this new regime that good? Can they maintain post-Urban success at this high level? It seems amazing to me that they could lose a Hall of fame coach and not miss a beat. Is the other shoe going to drop at some point? It will be interesting to watch...
 

We can be like Iowa. I don't think we can get to Wisconsin's status primarily due to their location being closer to better recruits.
 

LesBolstad said:
We can be like Iowa. I don't think we can get to Wisconsin's status primarily due to their location being closer to better recruits.
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I hope you're wrong. I hope Fleck is right when he says the goal is a return to true Gold Glory.

Achieving Iowa-level success seems pretty pedestrian to me. I just can't get too excited about that.
 

LesBolstad said:
We can be like Iowa. I don't think we can get to Wisconsin's status primarily due to their location being closer to better recruits.
Click to expand...
If I felt this way, I’d quit following the Gophers and I’d move on to something else. I am so glad I don’t feel this way. I didn’t feel this way when the Gophers were 1-11.
 

Penn State and Wisconsin have each been to three NY6 bowls in the past four years, including this year. The last time Bucky beat PSU was under circumstances that, well...let's just say if that's what it takes for the Badgers to beat the Nits, we can really hope it never happens again. Plus, PSU (and Michigan) have recruited far better talent the past few years.

Right now and going forward I can't put the Badgers above Penn State. Michigan might still be above us, but that can be settled in October at TCF.

We're in great shape for next year, and I'm optimistic about what PJ is doing, but absent better recruiting I still need to see results over a longer time frame before putting the Gophers in the top four going forward.
 


Regarding Michigan: I see trouble on the horizon for them.

I watched a couple of Michigan podcasts recently, and I was a bit shocked at how their fans currently see their program.

In these podcasts, Michigan fans seemed resigned at this point to being mere cannon fodder for Ohio State. They see a huge gap between the two programs. "The Rivalry", once the best in college football, appears to no longer exist as a real competition in their minds, and they have come to accept that.

They are terrified of Alabama in their upcoming bowl game. It's like they are expecting a beat-down.

They are disappointed in Harbaugh, but they seem to have grave doubts that any new hire/replacement could do any better.

Granted, these two podcasts were posted immediately after yet another big loss to Ohio State. Emotions were involved.

Still, I couldn't help but contrast the mood there with that of Gopher fans. Next to them, we are excited, optimistic and full of energy; Michigan fans appear dejected, and resigned to their fate as also-rans.

As someone old enough to remember Bo Schembechler and Michigan glory, I was actually stunned to see how despondent they appear to be. Michigan is a true helmet school. Now they seem... defeated.
 
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LesBolstad said:
We can be like Iowa. I don't think we can get to Wisconsin's status primarily due to their location being closer to better recruits.
Click to expand...

Totally disagree with that assessment. There is no reason why we can't compete at a level similar to Iowa and Wisconsin on a yearly basis. It will take time to make up ground because those programs have had long runs of stability but it isn't impossible for us to reach the level of either of those programs.
 

Regarding Iowa and Wisconsin:

"Old school" is the phrase that springs to mind.

At Iowa, Ferentz is near retirement. Does his approach appeal to high school recruits in the same way it did 10 years ago? Is Brian Ferentz a viable long-term replacement?

At Wisconsin, Chryst is a fine coach. He fits the Alvarez model to a "T". But I don't see the Badgers as a threat to make a huge move forward from where they are now. What you've seen in the recent past is what they'll likely be in the future. A very, very good, solid team; but not great.
 



record wise the year feels like 2016. Sans scandal and the qb not having a passing touchdown for 7 straight games. still 9 wins in 2016
 

So is the goal to be tops in the Big Ten and yet want to play a 6-6 team in the bowl games so that we have a better chance of winning?
 

BeenHazy said:
Penn State and Wisconsin have each been to three NY6 bowls in the past four years, including this year. The last time Bucky beat PSU was under circumstances that, well...let's just say if that's what it takes for the Badgers to beat the Nits, we can really hope it never happens again. Plus, PSU (and Michigan) have recruited far better talent the past few years.

Right now and going forward I can't put the Badgers above Penn State. Michigan might still be above us, but that can be settled in October at TCF.

We're in great shape for next year, and I'm optimistic about what PJ is doing, but absent better recruiting I still need to see results over a longer time frame before putting the Gophers in the top four going forward.
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Yep, and Michigan has been to two NY6 bowls in the past three years, and five in its past 10 bowl appearances. It has been ranked in the top 15 three of the past four years...a win against Bama will make it four top 15 finished in five years.

I love the Gophs but one great season does not raise them above Iowa. They need to string together several more 8-10 win seasons to be on par with Iowa, and have 8-10 years where they rank solidly in the top 25 to be on par with Wisconsin. I feel PSU and Mich are a level above Badgers.

MSU is a wildcard right now. Six Top 15 finishes in the past 10 years, but .500 from 2016-2018 (and probably 2019).

1. OSU
2, Mich/PSU
4. WI
5. IA
 

Spaulding!No! said:
record wise the year feels like 2016. Sans scandal and the qb not having a passing touchdown for 7 straight games. still 9 wins in 2016
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This year stopped feeling anything like 2016 after the Penn State game. We won 8 regular season games in 2016, 10 in 2019. We beat a top 5 team this year, had a shot to win the West in the final game of the season, and were in the CFP discussion for much of the year.

If we lose the bowl game the final records will look fairly similar but this year was light years ahead of 2016 and as opposed to that season the prospects for the next few years look really bright as well.
 



Fleck has us on the upswing and going forward the offense looks great. Jury is going to be out for a while on the coaches ability to build a defense capable of the same level as the offense. I think the Gophers will resemble Fleck's progress chart but always have the potential to have special seasons! Minnesota needs NFL draftees to improve our recruiting.

Michigan - How long can Harbaugh continue to reap great recruits with his decent but ultimately un-Michigan seasons? Sooner or later stud players are going to think about going elsewhere.

PSU is always going to be solid with Franklin. There will be near zero letdown in Happy Valley.

Iowa is always up and down. They play better in years there are picked to do worse and play worse in years they are predicted to do less. Seems they can not catch Whisky. Once Ferentz leaves, they should fall back to the mean.

Wisconsin has a system and they stick to it. I see no letdown for them. They just replaced 4 starting offensive lineman and didn't skip a beat! They will continue to get the recruits they need because they continue to produce NFL players.

OSU could be coached by me and win! They get players recruiting themselves.

Where are the Gophers ranked as a program?


1. OSU
-
Chasm
-
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan
-
ditch
-
5. Iowa
6. MSU
7. Minnesota
8. Nebraska
 

As a program, MN is definitely still behind Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, PSU, OSU, and MSU. Give me a division champship, a NY6 game, an end of season top 10 ranking, 3 out of 5 years with 9 or 10 wins...the other two with 7 or 8. Then I think we can start making comparisons to programs with decades of sustained success.

I believe MN can DEFINITELY get there under Fleck with the facilities, committment from administration, and improved recruiting...but it takes time.
 

I think this program can drive right by Iowa going 100 mph and right by Wisconsin at 70 mph. Gophers are on the edge of greatness, which I define as a perennial top 12 team and a regular guest in Indianapolis at the end of the season. I am extremely Bullish on the Gopher program with Fleck as the CEO.
 

RememberMurray said:
Regarding Michigan: I see trouble on the horizon for them.

I watched a couple of Michigan podcasts recently, and I was a bit shocked at how their fans currently see their program.

In these podcasts, Michigan fans seemed resigned at this point to being mere cannon fodder for Ohio State. They see a huge gap between the two programs. "The Rivalry", once the best in college football, appears to no longer exist as a real competition in their minds, and they have come to accept that.

They are terrified of Alabama in their upcoming bowl game. It's like they are expecting a beat-down.

They are disappointed in Harbaugh, but they seem to have grave doubts that any new hire/replacement could do any better.

Granted, these two podcasts were posted immediately after yet another big loss to Ohio State. Emotions were involved.

Still, I couldn't help but contrast the mood there with that of Gopher fans. Next to them, we are excited, optimistic and full of energy; Michigan fans appear dejected, and resigned to their fate as also-rans.

As someone old enough to remember Bo Schembechler and Michigan glory, I was actually stunned to see how despondent they appear to be. Michigan is a true helmet school. Now they seem... defeated.
Click to expand...

The creation of the CFP was a disaster for 95% of all college programs. Michigan, Penn State, Michigan State, Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers are now blocked from the CFP. That will not change as Ohio State will out recruit them due to their annual trips to the CFP. Their coach does not matter. She could be Rosie O'Donnell and OSU would still out recruit all the rest. This inherent inbalance in the CFP is only going to get worse over the coming years. It is a rich get richer system, built in. Thus, the mounting pressure to further change the Big Ten system or the CFP.

We, at least, can get to the Big Ten Championship game, thus a chance at the CFP. Remember as well that if we are going to win more games someone is going to have to take those wins by us as losses for them. Minnesota, Iowa, Northwestern and Wisconsin can not all have long term success in the West. Let alone Illinois and Purdue.
 

Wisconsin has been a good with flashes of great program for 25 years. They've never been able to take the leap. Even when they had Russell Wilson and an NFL line and RBs. At some point, you wonder if their model has maxed out. We can have a different model with a different ceiling.
 

Section2 said:
Wisconsin has been a good with flashes of great program for 25 years. They've never been able to take the leap. Even when they had Russell Wilson and an NFL line and RBs. At some point, you wonder if their model has maxed out. We can have a different model with a different ceiling.
Click to expand...

Wisconsin is going to their 4th Rose Bowl in 10 years. They've won 3 B1G titles in the last decade. The Badgers aren't Ohio State, or any of the top 5-10 teams who are consistently going to or on the cusp of the CFP, but what they've done for 25 years is extremely impressive. There are probably no more than 10 programs who have had a better last quarter century than Wisconsin. It's a great program.

The Gophers are trending nicely, and there's no real reason they can't compete annually for a B1G title, especially coming out of the West. But to minimize what Wisconsin has done, and even what Iowa has done, is just silly. It's not easy to win in the Big Ten if you're not Ohio State.
 

Ryan Day is like Larry Coker, Frank Solich or Tubby Smith. (at Kentucky) They'll fall off a cliff under him sooner or later.

Harbaugh has been a disappointment so far. I still wonder if he'll turn a corner there and make his team a national title contender sooner or later. I know he's been there for 5 or 6 years, but there still is part of me that wonders if he'll start doing better than he's done so far. It's just hard to imagine a coach with his resume not doing better.

Nebraska is going to stick with Scott Frost for way too long just because he was a great QB. He's 9-15 so far and they all still love him.

Iowa is going to continue to be Iowa and be ridiculously boring and average. Kirk Ferentz will probably retire soon, and they'll have an equally average successor who will go 7-5 every year.

I hope that Fleck can make us a consistent contender in the Big 10. Although I wouldn't count on that happening. We haven't been a consistent Big 10 contender in about 50 years.
 

Veritas said:
The creation of the CFP was a disaster for 95% of all college programs. Michigan, Penn State, Michigan State, Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers are now blocked from the CFP. That will not change as Ohio State will out recruit them due to their annual trips to the CFP. Their coach does not matter. She could be Rosie O'Donnell and OSU would still out recruit all the rest. This inherent inbalance in the CFP is only going to get worse over the coming years. It is a rich get richer system, built in. Thus, the mounting pressure to further change the Big Ten system or the CFP.

We, at least, can get to the Big Ten Championship game, thus a chance at the CFP. Remember as well that if we are going to win more games someone is going to have to take those wins by us as losses for them. Minnesota, Iowa, Northwestern and Wisconsin can not all have long term success in the West. Let alone Illinois and Purdue.
Click to expand...

My pipe dream is the Big Ten, PAC, and Rose Bowl agreeing to go back to how it was. Champions of the two conferences play on New Years Day in Pasadena. As for the SEC and the rest, screw them. If they want to have a national championship then they can figure out a way to determine who plays the Rose Bowl champ a week later.
 

MNBadgerGuy said:
Wisconsin is going to their 4th Rose Bowl in 10 years. They've won 3 B1G titles in the last decade. The Badgers aren't Ohio State, or any of the top 5-10 teams who are consistently going to or on the cusp of the CFP, but what they've done for 25 years is extremely impressive. There are probably no more than 10 programs who have had a better last quarter century than Wisconsin. It's a great program.

The Gophers are trending nicely, and there's no real reason they can't compete annually for a B1G title, especially coming out of the West. But to minimize what Wisconsin has done, and even what Iowa has done, is just silly. It's not easy to win in the Big Ten if you're not Ohio State.
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They can’t get over the hump. I’m not minimizing their success. Just pointing out the facts. Very good for 25 years. Occasionally great.
 

MGGopher said:
As a program, MN is definitely still behind Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, PSU, OSU, and MSU. Give me a division champship, a NY6 game, an end of season top 10 ranking, 3 out of 5 years with 9 or 10 wins...the other two with 7 or 8. Then I think we can start making comparisons to programs with decades of sustained success.

I believe MN can DEFINITELY get there under Fleck with the facilities, committment from administration, and improved recruiting...but it takes time.
Click to expand...


IDK if we're really behind MSU right now. Dantonio is really on the downswing, and most of the MSU fanbase wanted him fired after this year.


The rest I agree with you on.
 


Governor Sibley said:
I’ll give a kidney for our next 35 years to look like Iowa’s last 35 years.
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Yeah, you're probably right.

If Fleck can keep success going, he's going to leave for a bigger program or the NFL.

Then, we'll probably be back in 5-7 land.

With that being said, I think this thread is more about the next 5 years or so.
 

Right now tOHSU recruits head and shoulders above the rest of the B1G. The 2nd tier is Michigan, Wisconsin, and third Tier is Iowa, MSU (although them winning the B1G not too long ago, you could argue 2nd tier and MI third tier). 4th Tier is where we are currently, and then there is Rutgers
 

Section2 said:
They can’t get over the hump. I’m not minimizing their success. Just pointing out the facts. Very good for 25 years. Occasionally great.
Click to expand...

I think we'd all be overjoyed with Wi like run next two decades.

Wi is one of the most consistent programs, but they've likely peaked.
 

Anyway, as much as I'll get killed for saying this, I think it's possible that 2019 will end up being like 2003. Basically a double digit year that made us think we were on our way to accomplishing big things, but ended up being nothing more than a one year oasis in a desert of mediocrity and Music City Bowls.
 

salzie said:
I think we'd all be overjoyed with Wi like run next two decades.

Wi is one of the most consistent programs, but they've likely peaked.
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I agree. That's all I'm saying. And the best proof for why I'm right is that their own fans are frustrated.
 

giveme said:
Anyway, as much as I'll get killed for saying this, I think it's possible that 2019 will end up being like 2003. Basically a double digit year that made us think we were on our way to accomplishing big things, but ended up being nothing more than a one year oasis in a desert of mediocrity and Music City Bowls.
Click to expand...
Anything's possible. We have great facilities and our own stadium. Mason always pointed to those as huge obstacles. And I think not getting the OSU job took some of the life out of him.
2019 to me feels like we got more success much earlier than thought. We are still way early in developing the program. Recruiting won't peak for another year or two, and we won't feel that effect for 5 years. We've come nowhere close to our ceiling yet.
 

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