The first rule when projecting Gophers bowl games: the worst-case scenario is usually the most likely. Bowls hate the Gophers because we don't travel well. It took Purdue's football program being a complete dumpster fire and some heavy lobbying by the U of M to get the Texas Bowl to choose us ahead of the Boilers last year.
Getting to 8-4 might not make a bit of difference. The only restriction placed on Big Ten bowls is that the Capital One and Outback bowls cannot select a team with two fewer wins or two more losses than another eligible team. This would have come into play last year if the league hadn't strong-armed the Cap One Bowl into taking Nebraska - the game reportedly wanted Michigan, but once Nebraska got waxed in the B10 title game, the Wolverines were ineligible because they had only eight wins compared to the Huskers' 10. All of this is very unlikely to matter when it comes to the Gophers, however.
One last rule: the Big Ten Championship Game loser cannot fall below the fourth selection, which is the BWW Bowl this year.
In looking at the league's teams, Ohio State is a near lock for the BCS. If they lose the B10 title game, they'd be an obvious at-large selection while the Legends champ goes to Pasadena. If Wisconsin wins out, they would be another attractive at-large candidate - assuming they can rise high enough in the rankings.
The winner of this week's Michigan-Michigan State game will have the inside track to Indianapolis, though the Wolverines have a tougher remaining schedule. Either way, both of those teams will get chosen ahead of Minnesota, so even if the league gets two BCS bids, we're down to Tempe. As bad as they looked yesterday, Nebraska will still probably get to seven wins, and the BWW Bowl wanted them in 2010 before the Big 12 stepped in and nixed it since NU was leaving the conference. And no, just because they sponsor the game, BWW has absolutely zero input on who gets invited to participate.
The Gator Bowl is the first location that is realistically on the Gophers' radar. At 8-4, it's possible. Anything less, I'd say no way. Iowa will become eligible once they beat Purdue, but root for them to lose their other remaining games to finish 6-6, because a 7-5 Iowa is guaranteed to get picked ahead of an 8-4 Minnesota.
If we beat Indiana next Saturday, that will all but end the Hoosiers' bowl hopes. Northwestern's hopes are on life support, but even if they get to 6-6, they would not be all that attractive. So that leaves the Gophers going back to the Texas Bowl as a worst-case scenario at 8-4. Anything less than eight wins probably turns the Texas Bowl into a best-case scenario.
