POLL: Will the Gophers pull an upset this year in the Big Ten?

Will the Gophers pull a Big Ten Upset Win this year?

  • No, they will lose all 5 of these games

    Votes: 9 10.0%

  • Gophers will beat Iowa

    Votes: 70 77.8%

  • Gophers will beat Michigan

    Votes: 28 31.1%

  • Gophers will beat USC

    Votes: 13 14.4%

  • Gophers will beat Penn State

    Votes: 11 12.2%

  • Gophers will beat Wisconsin

    Votes: 54 60.0%
  • Total voters
    90
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GridironGus

GridironGus

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In my opinion, UCLA, Maryland, Illinois and Rutgers look to be 50/50 games. As it looks now, the Gophers may be slight favorites or slight underdogs in those games. Maybe the Iowa and Wisconsin games should be included in that list but based on the results this century, they are included here as possible upset victories. Limiting poll to three selectable choices.
 

going into the season, conventional wisdom said Gophers were heavy underdogs against Penn State and Michigan.

2 weeks in, Michigan doesn't look quite as good, but USC looks better than expected. so let's say the Gophers are solid underdogs in those 3 games.

that leaves 6 games that could go either way. Gophers need to win 4 of those 6 games to become bowl-eligible. and the 4 games you list are - on paper - the best chance for victories. If the Gophers can beat Iowa and/or Wisconsin, that makes for a better season.

if I had to choose one, I'll take Iowa.

But - all of this is based on the assumption that the offensive approach we saw against Rhode Island will be the same approach in the B1G. If the Gophers go back into RUTM mode, they can lose any game on the schedule.
 

what are we going to actually be looking at as upsets when the games roll around?
Nev: favorite
Iowa: coinflip to favorite; would not view a win here as an "upset"
Michigan: for sure dogs
USC: for sure dogs
UCLA, MD, Rutgers, Ill all will be a coinflip so no credit for an upset
PSU: sure dog
Wisc: Honestly the teams are even. Don't view this as an upset

Now if you're wanting to get into the "perception" or "point spread" upsets, then maybe Iowa will be in there and I'm sure we'll be a betting underdog against Wisc as it's at Camp Randall. I like us to beat Iowa this year and then I think Wisc is going to be decided by who's healthier and more motivated down the stretch (I will be 0% surprised if Wisc rolls into the game with us on a 4 game losing streak as they go PSU, Iowa, Oregon, Neb prior to us). So that game could be one for bowl eligibility for one or both teams pending how things go.

So given that, Michigan, USC and PSU are really the only ones I'd say are upsets. I don't think we beat any of them unfortunately, but Michigan probably is the best shot if they're going to continue to try play offense as they are as they don't have anyone outside that can hurt you and you can load the box. USC I don't like us stopping their speed on either side of the ball with how our OL has looked protecting so far. PSU you have a shot if you make Allar try beat you but I think we give up some home runs with Heatherman's style on D.
 

Iowa and Wisconsin are BORDER BATTLE games. Anything and everything may be possible in those two games. Wisky has their tough nonconference game coming up. More will become evident about the stinking badger after that game.
 

If we are going by the odds makers of course. We are going to find out that some of these big ten teams are way overrated. You add the NIL to the mix but you can subtract team chemistry. There will always be the haves but this NIL is going to end up being a disaster.

Go Gophers !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 


short ornery norwegian said:
But - all of this is based on the assumption that the offensive approach we saw against Rhode Island will be the same approach in the B1G. If the Gophers go back into RUTM mode, they can lose any game on the schedule.
Click to expand...

Play calling is impacted by many things.

— The overall quality of the defense you are facing.

— The relative strengths and weaknesses of the defense you are facing — are they stronger against the pass, or the run?

— Personnel matchup individually, particularly in the trenches.

— The score of the game at any given time.

— Weather conditions.

— Injuries.

In Game 1, North Carolina's pass rush was consistently and soundly beating Minnesota's o-line off the ball on pass plays. In my opinion it would have been foolhardy to force the pass in that game. You would have been risking sacks, fumbles, interceptions in a tight game against a P4 opponent.

I am still concerned about the Gopher offensive line play. I hoped they would be a strength of the team. I'm hoping they'll tighten things up as the season progresses.
 


Nevada just beat Troy yesterday, we play Nevada next and Iowa plays Troy next. I think results this week will be a big factor on who will be favored when we play Iowa. Guessing we’ll be a small favorite unless we crap the bed or Iowa steamrolls Troy.
 

Okay, I think we can beat Iowa and Wisconsin I hope we can find a way to beat Penn State.
 



Iowa and Wisconsin, Michigan, if the don't get it together on offense.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
going into the season, conventional wisdom said Gophers were heavy underdogs against Penn State and Michigan.

2 weeks in, Michigan doesn't look quite as good, but USC looks better than expected. so let's say the Gophers are solid underdogs in those 3 games.

that leaves 6 games that could go either way. Gophers need to win 4 of those 6 games to become bowl-eligible. and the 4 games you list are - on paper - the best chance for victories. If the Gophers can beat Iowa and/or Wisconsin, that makes for a better season.

if I had to choose one, I'll take Iowa.

But - all of this is based on the assumption that the offensive approach we saw against Rhode Island will be the same approach in the B1G. If the Gophers go back into RUTM mode, they can lose any game on the schedule.
Click to expand...
Why would they change it? This sure didn't look like "hey, let's try this out for the heck of it against a weak opponent just for fun." You could tell by the execution that this offense has been the focus of the summer workouts and fall camp.

This is it. This is how we roll. It only works against good teams if the offensive line improves both protection and road grading. Since O line has long been our strength, along with great running backs, I'm confident it gets better soon.
 

I think this year's Gopher squad has a fair chance to be better than last year's team, and last year's team beat Iowa. The Gophers under Fleck have also shown that they can beat Wisconsin. Those are two games we should be competitive in.

I believe the 2024 Gophers would need to play at their 2019 level to have a fair to good chance to beat Michigan and/or Penn State. They'd probably have to play at their 9-4 level (2021-ish) to be competitive with USC, in my opinion.

We are in early days of the 2024 season. It's hard to tell at this point in time just how good these teams are.

That being said, if Bowling Green can play Penn State to a standstill, I don't see why Minnesota couldn't do the same.

Neither Iowa nor Wisconsin look like world-beaters.
 
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I am think they lose them all. Need to see Brosmer against good competition. Hope I’m wrong.
 



walrus said:
Iowa and Wisconsin are BORDER BATTLE games. Anything and everything may be possible in those two games. Wisky has their tough nonconference game coming up. More will become evident about the stinking badger after that game.
Click to expand...
I like to think like that too but both teams have pretty routinely kicked our ass for the last few decades.
 


GridironGus said:
In my opinion, UCLA, Maryland, Illinois and Rutgers look to be 50/50 games. As it looks now, the Gophers may be slight favorites or slight underdogs in those games. Maybe the Iowa and Wisconsin games should be included in that list but based on the results this century, they are included here as possible upset victories. Limiting poll to three selectable choices.
Click to expand...
I was going to select four, but was thrawatted.
 

btowngopher said:
Nevada just beat Troy yesterday, we play Nevada next and Iowa plays Troy next. I think results this week will be a big factor on who will be favored when we play Iowa. Guessing we’ll be a small favorite unless we crap the bed or Iowa steamrolls Troy.
Click to expand...
I think Nevada beat Troy last week. Nevada got beat yesterday by Georgia Southern (hello GSU Talon). Will be very interested in how Iowa does against Troy.
 





If pass protection does not have an epiphany we will not win a BIG10 game. The run game is stout but not going to win 5 games itself.
 

gopherbadgerman said:
I am think they lose them all. Need to see Brosmer against good competition. Hope I’m wrong.
Click to expand...
Brosmer will need to take salsa lessons because our line has zero footwork on pass protection.
 

gopherbadgerman said:
I am think they lose them all. Need to see Brosmer against good competition. Hope I’m wrong.
Click to expand...
Not just Brosmer. Even in Saturdays game there were issues (exhibit A; The O line). We still don't know much about were we fit in. The next couple of weeks we should start to have a better idea of where we are relative to others. We have Iowa at home so that may give us the slight edge. How we do against Nevada and Iowa does against Troy should give us a relative sense of performance against opponents that faced each other, but this is college football, almost anything is possible (When you try). Ask Northern Illinois.
 

I want to see how the Gophers play against better opposition.

to put it bluntly, I don't trust Fleck to play a more wide-open style IF he gets into a tight game. His track record is that, in tight games, he defaults to his conservative style of game management.

Maybe this year will be different, and he will allow the offense to play more wide-open in a tight game against a B1G opponent. but I have to see it before I believe it.

vs North Carolina - 3rd-and-goal from the 9 yd line, and the Gophers take Daniel Jackson out of the game and call a run. I just don't think they can beat good teams playing that way. so will the coach allow the offense to play the way they did against Rhode Island when they're facing a better team?

we will find out in two weeks when they play Iowa.
 

Wisconsin fan morale is low. Michigan maybe worse.

Upsets are always possible but have to believe, and try.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
I want to see how the Gophers play against better opposition.

to put it bluntly, I don't trust Fleck to play a more wide-open style IF he gets into a tight game. His track record is that, in tight games, he defaults to his conservative style of game management.

Maybe this year will be different, and he will allow the offense to play more wide-open in a tight game against a B1G opponent. but I have to see it before I believe it.

vs North Carolina - 3rd-and-goal from the 9 yd line, and the Gophers take Daniel Jackson out of the game and call a run. I just don't think they can beat good teams playing that way. so will the coach allow the offense to play the way they did against Rhode Island when they're facing a better team?

we will find out in two weeks when they play Iowa.
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You say the exact same thing I want to say, but you put it a little nicer. :)
 



Can someone tell me why beating wisconsin, even in Camp Randall, would be an upset?

The two teams have been broadly equal for 5-6 years now, both head-to-head and overall.

According to things like Vegas rankings and predictive models Minnesota is slightly better so far.
 

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