Point Spread for this saturday???

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I don't think Vegas publishes lines for games between FBS and FCS teams. Sagarin's computer formula says we're 2-point favorites.
 

Yep, that is off the board. Once again, this is going to be their Super Bowl, so statistics are skewed. Just gotta play every single play hard. And hopefully have it wrapped up quicker than last week.
 

I know we are going to get all we can handle from NDSU but I would love nothing more than to play a flawless game and just destroy them
 

Bodog will probably post a spread for only an hour or so before kickoff.
 


Gopher07 said:
I don't think Vegas publishes lines for games between FBS and FCS teams. Sagarin's computer formula says we're 2-point favorites.
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I don't think you figured that correctly. NDSU is rated 65.10, Minnesota 61.28. That differential alone makes a four point favorite (3.82 rounded off). Sagarin's formula gives 3 points to the home team, which means NDSU is only favored by 1 pt, not MN by 2.
 

Sumtimegophs said:
I don't think you figured that correctly. NDSU is rated 65.10, Minnesota 61.28. That differential alone makes a four point favorite (3.82 rounded off). Sagarin's formula gives 3 points to the home team, which means NDSU is only favored by 1 pt, not MN by 2.
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Using the predictor ratings, not the elo chess/predictor combo. Minnesota is rated 66.47, NDSU rated 67.45. Homefield bumps Gophers up 3.08. 69.55 - 67.45 = 2 points.

In ELO CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence, which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters. PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR of future games.
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http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm
 

Using the "Schnauzer's xbox NCAA '12" interactive computer guided simulation model: The Gophers are actually 68 point favorites.
 

Schnauzer said:
Using the "Schnauzer's xbox NCAA '12" interactive computer guided simulation model: The Gophers are actually 68 point favorites.
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This is the most accurate predictive model, of course.
 



Gopher07 said:
Using the predictor ratings, not the elo chess/predictor combo. Minnesota is rated 66.47, NDSU rated 67.45. Homefield bumps Gophers up 3.08. 69.55 - 67.45 = 2 points.



http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm
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You still have it wrong.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 92 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 90.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 89 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 79.

The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR).

You don't use the predictor rating in determining a "spread", you use the RATING which in that forumla contains the predictor. NDSU is a 1 pt favorite.
 


Sumtimegophs said:
You still have it wrong.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 92 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 90.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 89 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 79.

The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR).

You don't use the predictor rating in determining a "spread", you use the RATING which in that forumla contains the predictor. NDSU is a 1 pt favorite.
Click to expand...

Actually, I THINK one can use the predictor ratings by themselves. The NY Times did when making NCAA picks last year: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/14/how-we-made-our-n-c-a-a-picks/. I think in Sagarin's description, RATING =/= RATING ... if that makes sense. He's using the more general term RATING to describe all ratings, whereas RATING is a synthesis of his two rating systems.

Of course, I could generally be off because there's not much out there on it. But it's not, IMO, wrong to use the math based solely on margin as opposed to using the math based on a combination of W/L and margin. Just different ends to the same goal.
 





Gold Vision said:
5dimes.com opens at Gophers -9.5 ou 48
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Yowza. That's higher than I expected. Must feel like last week was a better indication of our trajectory than week 2. It will be interesting to see which way the line moves, if at all.
 


Here's a link which attempts to rate all the teams from all the divisions from #1 to #725. They have Minnesota at #54. #725 is a school called Becker. Minnesota-Morris #709, pretty cold for a team with a 2-1 record. But they have NDSU as the #7 team in the nation. Of course, they have Baylor as the #1 team, so all their ratings look pretty nonsensical.

http://sportsratings.typepad.com/college_football/power-rating-all-divisions.html
 

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