raragophers
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Does anyone know the point spread for Saturday's game?
I don't think Vegas publishes lines for games between FBS and FCS teams. Sagarin's computer formula says we're 2-point favorites.
I don't think you figured that correctly. NDSU is rated 65.10, Minnesota 61.28. That differential alone makes a four point favorite (3.82 rounded off). Sagarin's formula gives 3 points to the home team, which means NDSU is only favored by 1 pt, not MN by 2.
In ELO CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence, which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters. PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR of future games.
Using the "Schnauzer's xbox NCAA '12" interactive computer guided simulation model: The Gophers are actually 68 point favorites.
Using the predictor ratings, not the elo chess/predictor combo. Minnesota is rated 66.47, NDSU rated 67.45. Homefield bumps Gophers up 3.08. 69.55 - 67.45 = 2 points.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm
Using the "Schnauzer's xbox NCAA '12" interactive computer guided simulation model: The Gophers are actually 68 point favorites.
You still have it wrong.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 92 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 90.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 89 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 79.
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR).
You don't use the predictor rating in determining a "spread", you use the RATING which in that forumla contains the predictor. NDSU is a 1 pt favorite.
Using the "Schnauzer's xbox NCAA '12" interactive computer guided simulation model: The Gophers are actually 68 point favorites.
5dimes.com opens at Gophers -9.5 ou 48
5dimes.com opens at Gophers -9.5 ou 48