play selection on first down

[touchdownvikings]

So we all know that Claeys is a numbers guy, and it would be shocking for him to run a team that was predictable from a numerical point of view. So I thought I'd see how the Gophers stack up on first down - do we "always" run? Here's what I found:

(1) I ignored the first three series of Oregon St, which were all pre-scripted (and all runs on first down).
(2) I ignored the final series in each game in which we ran/kneeled just to run the game out.
(3) Counting all other first downs, we ran 33 times and passed 27 times.
(4) 45% pass on first down, 55% run.

Not too shabby from the perspective of attaining balance.

Next I'm going to calculate propensity to run/pass with a single back in the backfield.

Maybe I have too much time on my hands?

 

[Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0]

That is quite interesting. Shows Claeys definitely isn't a shadow of the Kill offensive philosophy.

 

[Doc1001]

I take complete credit for that. I tweeted Jay Johnson about our lack of success on running up the middle on first down all the time. I also take complete credit for our big Indiana state game for these reasons. MVP

 

[nsmike]

Do the analaysis again after PSU and throw out OSU. Oregon was an outlier, because it was against a team with a new DC, first game of the season, so you had no film.

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

Do the analaysis again after PSU and throw out OSU. Oregon was an outlier, because it was against a team with a new DC, first game of the season, so you had no film.

What I would like to see is a super analysis if in fact play selection varies wildly between weak ooc games and conference games for most teams.

You know a massive amount of work, but it would be interesting.

 

[BarnBoy]

Quit bringing your facts and levelheadedness to this board.

In all seriousness, we need more of this type of post. Thanks.

 

[Hollinsanity]

What I would like to see is a super analysis if in fact play selection varies wildly between weak ooc games and conference games for most teams.

You know a massive amount of work, but it would be interesting.

If only MVofDT were still around he could data-scrape box scores on a large scale and then analyze in SQL or his database of choice.

I wish I knew how to do that kind of stuff.

 

[bottlebass]

Thanks for taking the time to calculate that out! Keep the stats coming.. but only if they are good.

 

[alchemy2u]

So we all know that Claeys is a numbers guy, and it would be shocking for him to run a team that was predictable from a numerical point of view. So I thought I'd see how the Gophers stack up on first down - do we "always" run? Here's what I found:

(1) I ignored the first three series of Oregon St, which were all pre-scripted (and all runs on first down).
(2) I ignored the final series in each game in which we ran/kneeled just to run the game out.
(3) Counting all other first downs, we ran 33 times and passed 27 times.
(4) 45% pass on first down, 55% run.

Not too shabby from the perspective of attaining balance.

Next I'm going to calculate propensity to run/pass with a single back in the backfield.

Maybe I have too much time on my hands?

Where did you get the data for that? Did go back and watch all the game films?


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[touchdownvikings]

One further interesting note: if we expand the analysis to include general run/pass propensity, the outcome does not change very much.

(1) I ignored the first three series of Oregon St. for the reasons stated above (pre-scripted).
(2) I ignored the final series of each game where the Gophers ran/knelt simply to run out the clock.
(3) I ignored the final run in the second quarter of the Indiana State game where Mitch was simply centering the ball for a FG right before the half.
(4) I considered all other plays.
(5) Total offensive plays: 136. Total passes: 63. Total runs: 73. %Pass: 46.3%. %Run: 53.7%.

Listening to Claeys, I am not certain that it is his goal to be balanced nearly as much as it is his goal to be unpredictable (e.g., do not pass 90+% of the time out of a certain formation). I think that a certain degree of balance results parasitically from the pursuit of unpredictability, and that is what we are seeing here. The Gophers are still a run-focused team, but the overall run favoritism is slight. It will be interesting to see how things unfold as the Gophers face Big Ten competition, and as Mitch continues to develop rapport with his receivers.

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

If only MVofDT were still around he could data-scrape box scores on a large scale and then analyze in SQL or his database of choice.

I wish I knew how to do that kind of stuff.

Yeah well and there is so much variation, you could run a lot, but then OOC ends and maybe you run but different run plays, that would be important to note.

It's complex.

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

One further interesting note: if we expand the analysis to include general run/pass propensity, the outcome does not change very much.

(1) I ignored the first three series of Oregon St. for the reasons stated above (pre-scripted).
(2) I ignored the final series of each game where the Gophers ran/knelt simply to run out the clock.
(3) I ignored the final run in the second quarter of the Indiana State game where Mitch was simply centering the ball for a FG right before the half.
(4) I considered all other plays.
(5) Total offensive plays: 136. Total passes: 63. Total runs: 73. %Pass: 46.3%. %Run: 53.7%.

Listening to Claeys, I am not certain that it is his goal to be balanced nearly as much as it is his goal to be unpredictable (e.g., do not pass 90+% of the time out of a certain formation). I think that a certain degree of balance results parasitically from the pursuit of unpredictability, and that is what we are seeing here. The Gophers are still a run-focused team, but the overall run favoritism is slight. It will be interesting to see how things unfold as the Gophers face Big Ten competition, and as Mitch continues to develop rapport with his receivers.

Yeah I think unpredictable is certainly the goal. Run / pass % is interesting on the surface but runs and passes can be so different that you can't lump them together.

I mean I'd be happy to run 100% of the time or pass 100% of the time... if the other team guessed wrong all the time and let a guy through the line and no linebackers are there.... or a WR is open or their weak coverage guy is always on your target.

 

[Maverick]

Being predictable is good too...as long as what you actually do, is not what was predicted...

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