Percentage of commits that actually sign

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Spoofin said:
I still can't come up with anything concrete that explains this idea that early "commits" are better than late commits. I have heard a bunch of theories (interests other kids, let's you know where to focus, etc.), but I think that might just be wishful thinking - especially if there are a bunch of flips (and then other "commits" lose interest, you have been focusing elsewhere, are now behind on other prospects, etc.). I guess if I had to choose I would vote for getting as many early commits as possible - but this narrative that it must be better is overstated to say the least. More seeing what you want to see, IMO. All that really matters is the end game (and not even that in year 1 for some now).


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I guess in some cases it means the kid had to wait a longer time before anyone offered him, which might mean he isn't as good, but I agree there isn't anything concrete.
 

gopherhoopsguy said:
I see lots of decommits coming not because of the player but because of PJ he wants commits fast and when he lands better player at same position he will ask player to decommit.Just like these last couple guys and all the signed guys from Tracy squad. So I would expect there to be between 10-15.
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If your take is that these recent decommits have resulted from Fleck telling them to shove off because he's found someone better, then that's a really bad take.

I would suspect that decommitting will continue to become more and more common, as will transferring and grad transferring. It's just how it is. Recruiting a kid is only just starting when they commit.
 


Our 4 decommits to date are all fairly highly rated. Essentially, a score of 86 or higher on 247, while we have a few 81's onboard for perspective. So again, to climb or hold our our ground in the rankings we can't keep trading 86's for 81's. But, the higher rated guys are obviously more sought after and being pursued harder by other schools, so those guys unfortunately are the ones more likely to decommit. They liked us enough to commit early so we just need to refine our strategy to keep these guys. All I know is there is a long time until signing day. Think dating in high school or college...an 8 month or longer relationship was rare. That's what we have to accomplish to get to February with these guys.
 

I was disusing this on another site and nobody could find a good list or good data on rate of commitments vs signing ... just in general.

As some have alluded to I'm not sure how you can compare considering different coaches have different styles. I'll just worry about the final rankings and then the Ws over the long term. Whatever PJ & Co. does, if it is how they want to play it then fine by me.
 


Gophers lead the big10 with 4 decommits this year. Michigan, Penn State, and Rutgers all have 3.
 

Other P5 colleges will do to us what we used to do to Western Michigan. Poach.

Can't controls kids that are using the Gophers as a perch for better offers, are ineligible after committing, having buyer's remorse, getting caught lying to the Gophers staff about not looking around, waiting for and receiving offers from their state schools, and from family changing the recruit's plans. Young kids also have different maturity level.

What is more concerning to me are the players we lose after they signed the LOI. Kids that don't work out or unhappy about playing time or become homesick or have family situations who transfer out, kids that get cut from the team (e. g., recent sex scandal), medical hardship cases, becoming academically ineligible. Grad transfers (like Gaelin Elmore) in particular hurt the program. Declaring for the draft early are both good and bad for the team.

The coaches have to be nimble to address these subtractions by finding additions.
 


Wcfan56 said:
They also lead the Big 10 in the number of commitments by a large margin.
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Not that large of a margin as Northwestern and Wisc. have 15, OSU & Purdue 14 and PSU & Maryland 13. Every one of those schools except for Purdue also have a higher average rating per player.
Here's the BIG commit list, sorted by average player ranking.
School Commits Ave. Rating
OSU 14 0.953
PSU 13 0.9135
Mich. 10 0.9055
Neb. 10 0.8979
Mary. 13 0.8674
MSU 9 0.8659
NW 15 0.8504
Wisc. 15 0.846
Iowa 8 0.845
Minn 19 0.8413
Rut. 9 0.8365
Ind. 7 0.831
Ill. 6 0.8302
Pur. 14 0.8163
as of 6-25-2017
 



GFBfan said:
Not that large of a margin as Northwestern and Wisc. have 15, OSU & Purdue 14 and PSU & Maryland 13. Every one of those schools except for Purdue also have a higher average rating per player.
Here's the BIG commit list, sorted by average player ranking.
School Commits Ave. Rating
OSU 14 0.953
PSU 13 0.9135
Mich. 10 0.9055
Neb. 10 0.8979
Mary. 13 0.8674
MSU 9 0.8659
NW 15 0.8504
Wisc. 15 0.846
Iowa 8 0.845
Minn 19 0.8413
Rut. 9 0.8365
Ind. 7 0.831
Ill. 6 0.8302
Pur. 14 0.8163
as of 6-25-2017
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The discussion point is not about average rating but percentage of decommits to commits.
 

GFBfan said:
Not that large of a margin as Northwestern and Wisc. have 15, OSU & Purdue 14 and PSU & Maryland 13. Every one of those schools except for Purdue also have a higher average rating per player.
Here's the BIG commit list, sorted by average player ranking.
School Commits Ave. Rating
OSU 14 0.953
PSU 13 0.9135
Mich. 10 0.9055
Neb. 10 0.8979
Mary. 13 0.8674
MSU 9 0.8659
NW 15 0.8504
Wisc. 15 0.846
Iowa 8 0.845
Minn 19 0.8413
Rut. 9 0.8365
Ind. 7 0.831
Ill. 6 0.8302
Pur. 14 0.8163
as of 6-25-2017
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The Gophers are tenth on average rating on this list. It may be not unrealistic to think that is where ultimately their B1G recruiting ranking will end up at NSD.
 

Wcfan56 said:
The discussion point is not about average rating but percentage of decommits to commits.
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Probably should have put the commit list in a different thread.
 

Wcfan56 said:
They also lead the Big 10 in the number of commitments by a large margin.
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I didn't mean it as a sot against PJ. I meant it as people are freaking out about the decommits, when even the best school in the conference have a similar number of decommits. When you are recruiting players who have many options it is more likely to happen.
 




btowngopher said:
I guess in some cases it means the kid had to wait a longer time before anyone offered him, which might mean he isn't as good, but I agree there isn't anything concrete.
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And in others, just the opposite.
 

60's Guy said:
Our 4 decommits to date are all fairly highly rated. Essentially, a score of 86 or higher on 247, while we have a few 81's onboard for perspective. So again, to climb or hold our our ground in the rankings we can't keep trading 86's for 81's. But, the higher rated guys are obviously more sought after and being pursued harder by other schools, so those guys unfortunately are the ones more likely to decommit. They liked us enough to commit early so we just need to refine our strategy to keep these guys. All I know is there is a long time until signing day. Think dating in high school or college...an 8 month or longer relationship was rare. That's what we have to accomplish to get to February with these guys.
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So - are you saying the Gophers are like that girl who "puts out" on the 2nd date, but the guy dumps her and asks someone else to the prom?

Seriously, I don't care when players sign with the Gopher - IF they are good players and sign a LOI. If they sign early, and stick, that's good. If they sign late, and they can play, that's good. If they flip from another school and sign with the Gophers on Signing Day, that's good. Good players are good for the program. Again, these are kids we're talking about. Some of them may just have a more difficult time making up their mind - or be dealing with family/girlfriend pressure. In the end, you want each player to make a decision that is right for them. If they can make that decision early in the process, and be happy with it, great. If they wait until late in the process to make that decision, great - if it's the best decision for their situation.
 

P.S. - in the "Recruiting Updates" thread, there is an article about two 5* QB recruits who recently de-committed from their initial commitments. (one I believe from Penn State).

So, more anecdotal evidence that suggests more kids are de-committing at this stage of the recruiting cycle.
 

hungan1 said:
The Gophers are tenth on average rating on this list. It may be not unrealistic to think that is where ultimately their B1G recruiting ranking will end up at NSD.
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Not unrealistic at all. Of course, I can think of a poster from St. Paul who has been saying that for weeks on here and is savaged each and every time for his 'hate' of the coach for suggesting such a thing. Slowly the board is accepting this idea - starting with the recent "it's his first year" justifications.


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Spoofin said:
Not unrealistic at all. Of course, I can think of a poster from St. Paul who has been saying that for weeks on here and is savaged each and every time for his 'hate' of the coach for suggesting such a thing. Slowly the board is accepting this idea - starting with the recent "it's his first year" justifications.


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You claimed to know that when we had a quarter of a class...
 


A high percentage%. More than half, less than all.
 

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