Penultimate Field of 12 Projection Has Alabama Hanging On to Last At-Large Spot, But It Feels Dicey at Best

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SelectionSunday

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We'll have the final projection next Saturday night or Sunday morning.

FIELD Of 12 PROJECTION (through December 1) -- * denotes automatic qualifier
ACC (1): *SMU (11-1)

Big Ten (4): *Oregon (12-0,) Penn State (11-1), Ohio State (10-2), Indiana (11-1)

Big XII (1): *Arizona State (10-2)

Independent (1): Notre Dame (11-1)

Mountain West (1): *Boise State (11-1)

SEC (4): *Texas (11-1), Georgia (10-2), Tennessee (10-2), Alabama (9-3)
____________________________
Last 2 At-Large In: #10 Indiana, #11 Alabama

First 4 (At-Large) Out: BYU (10-2), Miami (10-2), Ole Miss (9-3), South Carolina (9-3)

Auto Qualify Only Potential Path: Army (10-1), Clemson (9-3), Iowa State (10-2), Tulane (9-3), UNLV (10-2)

Movin' In (1): Alabama

Movin' Out (1): Miami

RELEVANT CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES
Mountain West -- #2 UNLV @ #1 Boise State, 7 p.m. Friday (FOX)
American -- #2 Tulane @ #1 Army, 7 p.m. Friday (ABC)
Big XII -- #1 Arizona State vs. #2 Iowa State, 11 a.m. Saturday (ABC)
SEC -- #1 Texas vs. #2 Georgia, 3 p.m. Saturday (ABC)
Big Ten -- #1 Oregon vs. #2 Penn State, 7 p.m. Saturday (FOX)
ACC -- #1 SMU vs. #2 Clemson, 7 p.m. Saturday (ABC)

THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
First Round (Dec. 20 & 21)
#9 Tennessee @ #8 Ohio State
#12 *Boise State @ #5 Penn State

#10 Indiana @ #7 Notre Dame
#11 Alabama @ #6 Georgia

Quarterfinals
#1 *Oregon vs. #8 Ohio State/#9 Tennessee winner (Rose Bowl/Jan. 1)
#4 *Arizona State vs. #5 Penn State/#12 *Boise State winner (Fiesta Bowl/Dec. 31)

#2 *Texas vs. #7 Notre Dame/#10 Indiana winner (Sugar Bowl/Jan. 1)
#3 *SMU vs. #6 Georgia/#11 Alabama winner (Peach Bowl/Jan. 1)

Semifinals
Orange Bowl (Jan. 9)
Cotton Bowl (Jan. 10)

National Championship (Jan. 20) -- Atlanta, GA

Final Power 5 Head to Head Standings -- Notre Dame (Independent), Oregon State (Pac 12), and Washington State (Pac 12) included
1. Notre Dame (8-0)
2. Washington State (2-1)
3. SEC (13-7)
4. Oregon State (2-2)
5. Big Ten (7-11)
Big XII (7-11)
7. ACC (10-17)
 
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stocker08 said:
lol

Has anyone considered that:
Oregon may win the Big Ten
Texas may win the SEC
SMU may win the ACC
Arizona State may win the Big 12

All teams in their inaugural season in these conferences.

Also.....Oregon State won the Pac-12 🥳
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I never would have thought of that. Well done!
 

I don’t think Alabama is necessarily deserving with two pretty bad losses, but the other teams in the mix don’t have super impressive resumes either. What keeps Bama out at this point? Would it be Clemson winning and getting that autobid? Would SMU get the last at-large in that case? Is there even a path for Miami at this point?
 

SelectionSunday said:
RELEVANT CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES:
Big XII -- #1 Arizona State vs. #2 Iowa State, 11 a.m. Saturday (ABC)
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Interesting that the Arizona St & Iowa St game will be the first EVER between those schools.

Bizarre that can happen in a CONFERENCE Championship. Strange new world.
 



TNGophfan said:
Not much separating them but I still give a 2 loss Miami the edge over 3 loss Alabama. Sets a bad precedent if not.
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Of the 10-2 potential at-large teams, I’d take BYU over Miami. Canes really don’t have any significant wins. BYU’s win @ SMU (its only loss) alone is way better than anything Miami has.

Definitely going to be interesting who gets the last spot. The rest are gonna’ be pretty easy, just a matter of how they seed 5-12.
 

I know people want to talk quality wins
But without beating bama, Vandy isn’t bowl eligible
Ole Miss got spanked by 4-8 Kentucky

I have them both far below Miami and South Carolina (I know bama beat South Carolina)
 

Some guy said:
I know people want to talk quality wins
But without beating bama, Vandy isn’t bowl eligible
Ole Miss got spanked by 4-8 Kentucky

I have them both far below Miami and South Carolina (I know bama beat South Carolina)
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I'd probably take the team that has won 6 straight games and just won at Clemson. They lost at Bama by 2 as 19.5 point underdogs
 



MaxyJR1 said:
I'd probably take the team that has won 6 straight games and just won at Clemson. They lost at Bama by 2 as 19.5 point underdogs
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They also only lost to lsu because they lost their qb in that game and had a horrible penalty call back a pick 6
 



TNGophfan said:
I'd be fine with USCar or BYU as well. Just not 3 loss Bama.
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Gamecocks are a super confusing case.

They might be the hottest team in the country right now and are clearly playing better than Bama or Ole Miss...but they lost a close one to Bama and got absolutely dominated by the Rebs.

In such a small sample size season, head to head has to be a major factor. But I have no idea how to actually separate or rank those teams.
 



It is very realistic that Clemson beats SMU in a close game in the ACC championship and the ACC then gets two teams in. The downside is you'll hear a lot of squawking from the SEC. Clemson lost to two SEC teams this year, but one was very early on, Georgia, and was super close at halftime and the second they lost by three to the hottest SEC team at the end of the year. How do you keep SMU out if they have only two close losses to two good teams? It would seem reasonable to set the precedent that three lose teams that didn't even play in their conference championship should not be in. I mean you lost three times in the regular season!

Of course, in this scenario, you could argue Clemson just beat SMU and South Carolina just beat Clemson so South Carolina is in. Dang it! I don't want another SEC team in the playoff, but I think it will be hard to avoid. Well, as long as it's South Carolina instead of Alabama! Alabama beat South Carolina. Ugg!
 

Zeppelin Gopher said:
Gamecocks are a super confusing case.

They might be the hottest team in the country right now and are clearly playing better than Bama or Ole Miss...but they lost a close one to Bama and got absolutely dominated by the Rebs.

In such a small sample size season, head to head has to be a major factor. But I have no idea how to actually separate or rank those teams.
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It is interesting
Ole Miss got beat by 4-8 Kentucky
I would say my natural inclination would be to put in 2 loss BYU or Miami.

I know Florida is better than Kansas but that doesn’t mean Ole Miss should go ahead of a two loss team.
The SEC clearly better than ACC and Big 12. But a conference doesn’t go, a team does.
 

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