Paul Harvey: Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every Minnesota football game in 2024 (Projection: 4-8 (1-8))

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Per Paul Harvey:

Week 1: vs. UNC (W)​

UNC rolled up 500 yards in a blowout win in 2023. This time, the Gophers have a few things going for them. The Tar Heels are replacing superstar QB Drake Maye, and the season-opener is in Minneapolis. This figures to be low-scoring with 2 offenses trying to find their footing. That will tilt this matchup in favor of Minnesota at home.

Week 2: vs. Rhode Island (W)​

Rhode Island is an FCS program and far from a powerhouse at that level. The Rams have 3 all-time appearances in the FCS Playoffs, all in the 1980s. If Minnesota can squeak past UNC in the opener, Rhode Island presents a great opportunity for the offense to even out some kinks and the defense to empty the roster early in the season.

Week 3: vs. Nevada (W)​

Projecting Nevada’s performance this fall is tricky. The Wolf Pack went 4-20 the past 2 seasons under Ken Wilson and hired Jeff Choate in the offseason to rebuild the program. Choate previously had things cooking with Montana State in the FCS, going 28-22 overall with a pair of playoff appearances before joining Steve Sarkisian’s Texas staff from 2021-23. Choate was able to pull several former Power 5 prospects to Nevada via the transfer portal this offseason. But until the Wolf Pack put it all on the field, it’s hard to believe they will be cohesive early in the season. Simply put: Minnesota better not lose this game.

Week 4: vs. Iowa (L)​

It’s far from a guarantee, but Minnesota has a solid shot at beginning the season with an undefeated mark in nonconference play. The Gophers also get their first B1G game at home, and it’s sure to be a heated rivalry showdown with Iowa. Everyone remembers the drama and controversy that decided last year’s game in Iowa City. Unfortunately, I have Iowa a few legs up on Minnesota, provided the injury bug does not decimate the Hawkeyes yet again. An earlier-than-expected date for the rivalry series in the new B1G, Phil Parker’s defense could be the story in this matchup.

Week 5: at Michigan (L)​

The Little Brown Jug series leans heavily in favor of Michigan, and recent history has been very unkind to the Gophers. The Wolverines have won 4 straight since 2015, including 3 straight wins by 23+ points. Some major roster (and coaching staff) turnover for Michigan means this one will probably not be quite as ugly as Michigan’s 52-10 win last season. But the Gophers still have too much ground to make up for this one to remain competitive in Ann Arbor.


Week 6: vs. USC (L)​

Lincoln Riley will be under a microscope this season, and I could see USC’s final record playing out several different ways. However, the Trojans’ talent level should keep the program competitive in its first B1G season. Minnesota might be able to make this game interesting at the line of scrimmage, but that will not be enough to fully overcome USC’s offensive firepower.

Week 7: at UCLA (L)​

Minnesota has a chance to regroup and regain some momentum at this point in the season, and this is around the area where I think the offense as a group will begin hitting its stride. That makes it a rotten trick that the schedule makers gave the Gophers a California road trip in Week 7. On the surface, I think UCLA and Minnesota are rather evenly matched, but that travel component will weigh on a Gophers team that is reeling a bit after 2 road games in 3 weeks.

Week 8: BYE​

Week 9: vs. Maryland (W)​

Maryland and Minnesota have been evenly matched during their games as B1G members, but PJ Fleck has gotten the best of Mike Locksley over the years. Locksley’s Terrapins are 0-2 on the road in Minneapolis and his 1 win against the Gophers was a 45-44 shootout in the COVID season. This year’s game is at home, so look for the defense to take advantage.

Week 10: at Illinois (L)​

Bret Bielema and PJ Fleck have produced 3 hard-fought games since Bielema arrived in Champaign, and he’s found a way to win every time. Bielema has won the close games on the road and performed even better against the Gophers in Champaign. If Minnesota’s offense rebounds under a new starting QB, it’s possible the offense travels enough to win this one. But I’m leaning toward Illinois with the facts currently in front of us.

Week 11: at Rutgers (L)​

Minnesota and Rutgers only have 3 head-to-head meetings in the B1G. The Gophers are 3-0, but they haven’t faced a roster as deep and veteran-laden as this Scarlet Knights team. Fans will get no joy from facing former Minnesota QB Athan Kaliakmanis, but he is likely to be the piece to elevate Rutgers’ potential this fall. It will sting watching Kaliakmanis lead Rutgers past Minnesota in the middle of a breakthrough year for the Scarlet Knights.

Week 12: BYE​

Week 13: vs. Penn State (L)​

After a resounding upset by Minnesota in the 2019 matchup, Penn State got some revenge with a 45-17 beatdown at home in 2022. This year’s game will come in Minneapolis, but the final outcome is likely to be closer to the 2022 version. The Nittany Lions are among the top teams in the Big Ten Championship odds, and the depth of James Franklin’s program will win out this late in the season.

Week 14: at Wisconsin (L)​

Even with Wisconsin’s dominance in the rivalry since the mid-1990s, the Badgers only hold a 63-62-8 all-time series lead after a win in 2023. Paul Bunyan’s Axe is one of the best and most coveted rivalry trophies in the sport, and the nature of the series makes it hard to predict this one. Expect another close game that could hinge on a single play late in the 4th quarter. But since it’s going to be at Camp Randall Stadium, I’ll lean toward Luke Fickell moving to 2-0 against Fleck.

2024 Projection: 4-8 (1-8)​

I truly wanted to be optimistic about Minnesota’s season. The Gophers did some nice work in the transfer portal, and the offense will be better because of it.

However, one potential problem that I see is the defense. The Gophers finished 70th in the country with 26.7 points per game last season only to watch defensive coordinator Joe Rossi get scooped up by new Michigan State coach Jonathan Smith.

The nonconference schedule is manageable and could lead to some false expectations entering the B1G slate. But on a game-by-game breakdown in the new-look B1G, I just don’t see many wins for the Gophers.


Go Gophers!!
 






I can see a 4-8 season and also 8-4. 4-8 and PJ will have some hard breakfast discussions and many fans will become doubters. Our best need to stay healthy and the ??? areas need to surprise. That is asking a lot considering the injuries we have currently and
the safety and LB spots RB, RT, C and WR unsettled new DC and if Brosmer is the real deal.
 

I don't put stock in any of the preseason stuff because everyone is just guess but I do not understand the Rutgers love. They are coming off a 7-6 (3-6) season and handing the keys to the offense to the guy who led the Gophers to a 6-7 (3-6) record and did not look good at all over the course of the season.

Athan is young, maybe he makes a huge jump going into his 3rd year but it is surprising to see the number of people predicting Rutgers to have a good year with him at the helm. I don't see it but maybe we will be proven wrong when he suddenly is able to put touch on the ball and complete the easy throws that he definitely could not last year.
 


4-8 with a loss to Rutgers would be the beginning to the end of PJ's tenure here.
coming on the heals of last year, a second below average season in a row would definitely make his seat warm heading into 2025
 






4-8 is not out of the realm of possibility but I am slightly more optimistic.
 



I’m going with 8-4. If we’re mostly healthy.
Brosmer makes a huge difference.
Defense is stronger.
If we rack up injuries, I could see 4-8.
Would wager we’re closer to 8 wins than 4, though.
 


I’m going with 8-4. If we’re mostly healthy.
Brosmer makes a huge difference.
Defense is stronger.
If we rack up injuries, I could see 4-8.
Would wager we’re closer to 8 wins than 4, though.
I'm going with 7-5.
 

How many award watch lists have a Gopher on it? Every single one, except the Heisman.

There's a different vibe this year. I've always liked the Fleck culture but this year it feels like these guys love their teammates and they got each other's back. I think they are taking the low expectations personally.

I'm torn between 7-5/8-4.
 

I really don't see that happening. If it does there would need to be something pretty catastrophic that happened for Fleck's seat to not get warm to hot. I actually see 8 wins as more likely than 4 wins.
 


Week 11: at Rutgers (L)​

Minnesota and Rutgers only have 3 head-to-head meetings in the B1G. The Gophers are 3-0, but they haven’t faced a roster as deep and veteran-laden as this Scarlet Knights team. Fans will get no joy from facing former Minnesota QB Athan Kaliakmanis, but he is likely to be the piece to elevate Rutgers’ potential this fall. It will sting watching Kaliakmanis lead Rutgers past Minnesota in the middle of a breakthrough year for the Scarlet Knights.
What in the world is this line about Athan based on? I have to agree with MNVCGUY. I'm not getting this Rutgers hype. I'm not saying Greg Schiano can't put a decent team on the field but I'm also not buying that they will reach a higher tier this season, especially considering Athan's ability at quarterback
 

What in the world is this line about Athan based on? I have to agree with MNVCGUY. I'm not getting this Rutgers hype. I'm not saying Greg Schiano can't put a decent team on the field but I'm also not buying that they will reach a higher tier this season, especially considering Athan's ability at quarterback
Man it would sting to see Athan come out and light it up this year. I don’t see that happening. This will be a very interesting game.
 

Illinois, Rutgers, Iowa, UCLA, are all games we have a great shot to win. And we have been very competitive against Wisconsin, winning 2 of the last 3. Harvey has us losing all five of these games. We will win some of them. I don’t see a one win big ten conference record.
 

What in the world is this line about Athan based on? I have to agree with MNVCGUY. I'm not getting this Rutgers hype. I'm not saying Greg Schiano can't put a decent team on the field but I'm also not buying that they will reach a higher tier this season, especially considering Athan's ability at quarterback
Rutgers has an "easy" schedule this year. Hence the hype on record, not that they're actually better.
 

I don't put stock in any of the preseason stuff because everyone is just guess but I do not understand the Rutgers love. They are coming off a 7-6 (3-6) season and handing the keys to the offense to the guy who led the Gophers to a 6-7 (3-6) record and did not look good at all over the course of the season.

Athan is young, maybe he makes a huge jump going into his 3rd year but it is surprising to see the number of people predicting Rutgers to have a good year with him at the helm. I don't see it but maybe we will be proven wrong when he suddenly is able to put touch on the ball and complete the easy throws that he definitely could not last year.

I don't know if I'd call it "Rutgers love". They are predicted to finish 9th in the Big Ten by the media poll. The Vegas over/under on wins is 6.5.

That said, those who are predicting a better year for Rutgers are doing so mostly because for the first time since they joined the Big Ten, they play NONE of Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. They also miss Oregon and Iowa (so all of the predicted top five teams in the league).

They have five conference home games and two west coast teams travel to Piscataway.

In fact, if the preseason media poll is to be believed, Rutgers plays the following teams, organized by predicted order of Big Ten finish:

#6 USC (in LA)
#7 Wisconsin (Rutgers home game)
#8 Nebraska (in Lincoln)
#10 Washington (Rutgers home game)
#11 Maryland (in College Park)
#12 Minnesota (Rutgers home game)
#13 Illinois (Rutgers home game)
#15 UCLA (Rutgers home game)
#16 Michigan State (in East Lansing)

They should absolutely win more games this year than they did last year when they played Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Iowa.
 
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Illinois, Rutgers, Iowa, UCLA, are all games we have a great shot to win. And we have been very competitive against Wisconsin, winning 2 of the last 3. Harvey has us losing all five of these games. We will win some of them. I don’t see a one win big ten conference record.

Agree, I would put the chances at close to 0% that we lose ALL five of these games - Illinois, Rutgers, Iowa, UCLA, Wisconsin. None will be easy, but I can't see us going 0-5 in them. I'd also say nothing guaranteed about beating Maryland at home. And, not a 0% chance we beat USC or Penn State at home.
 
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Gophers biggest weapon is hurt yet again.

At least Gophers have the new QB coming in... except the top WR is nursing an injury maybe...

Others said, you get by...but losing a major rushing weapon in the big season opener..

Bad luck if rumors are right.
 




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