Pat Caputo: P.J. Fleck to Michigan could make sense

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If the Gophers go out on Saturday and kick the crap out of Michigan I have no doubt their message boards will be calling for them to hire Fleck and the talking heads will speculate like crazy about it.

My only hope is that people here will be smart enough to not get caught up in the talk until Fleck gives any true indication that he is looking for an exit ramp out of town. Fleck talks fondly about guys like Hayden Frye and Barry Alvarez, guys who built dynasties at their respective schools.

Let the media talk, let the opponent message boards throw up rumor after rumor about how they can go get Fleck if they want him. Listen to what coach says, watch the way he conducts himself and ask yourself if he is doing anything to give you any indication what so ever that he has one foot out the door. Because while I am not naive enough to think there is no way he would leave I think it would take something truly amazing to get him to go at this point and Michigan ain't it.
 


Some guy said:
Take over for
3-9
5-7
7-6
11-2
8-5
7-6
5-7

Go
10-3
10-3
8-5
10-3
9-4

and everyone wants you fired


Take over for
6-7
8-5
8-5
6-7
9-4

go
5-7
7-6
11-2

and you’re the National media’s darling



that’s the number one reason not to go to Michigan from Minnesota
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Post of the day!
 

Some guy said:
Take over for
3-9
5-7
7-6
11-2
8-5
7-6
5-7

Go
10-3
10-3
8-5
10-3
9-4

and everyone wants you fired


Take over for
6-7
8-5
8-5
6-7
9-4

go
5-7
7-6
11-2

and you’re the National media’s darling



that’s the number one reason not to go to Michigan from Minnesota
Click to expand...
This is exactly right on. Fleck would have a few years to what win the East? Make the playoff? Win the national championship? If these aren't accomplished how long does he have?

Another thing to note is that PJ still has to prove some things here. He had one excellent year but we didn't even win our division. He's been recruiting well but what happens if we go 4-4 this year? What happens if or when we under achieve even our expectations? It could happen.

It's been a long time since we've seen a MN coach in FB or BB leave for greener pastures, yet somehow we have these conversations every year for every sport.
 

We've had many other threads on this topic. Fleck isn't going anywhere soon. If he continues to win at this level the U will back up the brinks truck. His contract is extended every year so it is easy for Coyle to up the $$.

Mich is not a fit. Note Dame is not a fit. Ohio State is not a fit. If he voluntarily leaves for another helmet P5 program, my money would be on USC.
 


Also worth noting that according to the Strib, FSU did reach out to Fleck’s camp to gauge interest and they declined to reciprocate that interest.
 

BleedGopher said:
per Caputo:

A question for those wavering on Jim Harbaugh as Michigan’s football coach: Who would be better?

Most answers don’t make sense. For all the disappointment about losses to Ohio State and a noticeable lack of championship hardware, Harbaugh has poured a solid foundation. The Wolverines have been good and potentially could move to another level if they extend Harbaugh’s contract, which is in the sixth of seven years.

Minnesota’s P.J. Fleck is the possible exception. He turned Western Michigan into a major bowl participant. He developed Minnesota into an 11-game winner capable of defeating Auburn in a bowl game.

Of course, if Michigan goes into Minneapolis Saturday night and beats the Gophers, it will be a moot point, at least for awhile.

But if Minnesota wins this game, don’t be surprised if a drum suggesting P.J. Fleck to Michigan begins to beat.

That may not be fair to Jim Harbaugh, but it is the reality of his chosen profession and current position.


Go Gophers!!
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Can't we tell them about Dan Munson?
 

die hard gopher said:
Also worth noting that according to the Strib, FSU did reach out to Fleck’s camp to gauge interest and they declined to reciprocate that interest.
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Yep. He's going to be on everyone's coaching hire list.
 

dpodoll68 said:
It doesn't make any sense, actually. How often does any coach go straight from one head coach job to another in the same conference - in ANY conference, let alone the Big Ten? And sure, Michigan has the money, the fanbase, the prestige; but in terms of the actual on-field product, it's quite easy to argue that Minnesota has already surpassed Michigan. Why would Fleck leave behind his own hand-crafted roster for one he didn't recruit and is, at very best, a lateral move in terms of roster quality?
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Roster quality has nothing to do with the decision to take a new job. An additional 4 or 5 or 6 million dollars per year will get anyone's attention. By moving jobs coaches get a free 3, 4 or 5 free years to mold the roster to their culture, with their recruits. It is going to be easier to recruit and win at Michigan than at Minnesota. Michigan has an elite academic reputation.
Two reasons I don't think PJ goes to Ann Arbor: 1. It's Ann Arbor. I think he and Heather like the cosmopolitan opportunities in the Twin Cities. 2. I doubt Michigan is adopting Row the Boat to their culture.
And I also believe we'd fight pretty hard to keep PJ here.
But, I agree with a lot of what the writer says: For instance, there isn't much to talk about if Michigan wins the game.
 



Sure wish we didn't hoist those pay cuts on PJ. I get that with COVID a paycut was needed, but PJ got a bigger slice than most P5 coaches.
 

What will be interesting is to see how many big football programs (especially Big Ten ones) lacking any or most of their ticket revenue for the 2020 season - not to mention other crazy athletic department and university losses this year - make any coaching changes after this season. You'd think it would be hard for a lot of schools to justify paying a buyout for current and former coaches and ponying up a big salary in this environment. It definitely impacted the number of coaching changes in P5 hoops this spring.
 





I may not remember correctly but didn’t we once have one of those “all things” forums about PJ Fleck job change rumors and speculation? If not, could we start one? Not trying to shut it down. I just know the better the Gophers get, the more speculation will arise. Quite frankly, I choose to avoid it and that would be easier if it was limited to one thread.
 

Schnauzer said:
I may not remember correctly but didn’t we once have one of those “all things” forums about PJ Fleck job change rumors and speculation? If not, could we start one? Not trying to shut it down. I just know the better the Gophers get, the more speculation will arise. Quite frankly, I choose to avoid it and that would be easier if it was limited to one thread.
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I get what you’re saying but really odd play to come into this thread d
 

PMWinSTP said:
P5 in conference is super rare, P5 to P5 conference is rare. Jimbo Fischer is the most recent I can think of moving from one P5 to another P5 conference.
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Leach just went from Wash State to Miss State.
 

The biggest thing to me that Fleck should keep in mind (and I'm sure he knows this), is looking at the difference between fan expectations and what the reasonable ceiling is at the school.

Right now, there is no bigger differential between those than at Nebraska. The fans think they should be Alabama. Their realistic ceiling, however, is Iowa.

For Minnesota, our realistic ceiling I would say is what Wisconsin is now. Nothing wrong with that.

For Michigan ... is their realistic ceiling closer to what Penn St is now, or what Ohio State has been? Their fans would vehemetly argue that they could easily have done what Ohio State has lately, if they had gotten Urban. But is that correct? Honestly, I could see it either way. But for certain, their fans will never be happy until Michigan and Ohio State of now, swap places. Anything less than that, they won't care what you achieve.

That's what Fleck needs to weigh.


I can't believe money matters, at this point. Does $8-10M a year matter over $4-5M? How many houses on Lake Minnetonka and wake boats, does a man need to be happy in life?


The only possible thing I could think is ... if he wants to try to accomplish what Dabo has done at Clemson. For the challenge and reward of that. And, sadly, I'm just not sure if that can be done here at Minnesota, no matter how good you are. Because of our climate and geography, and the relative location of most high 4* and 5* athletes that you need to achieve at that level ... I don't know if you can ever convince enough of them to come to live in Minneapolis, year after year. That might be too much of a challenge, for anyone.
 

dpodoll68 said:
How often does any coach go straight from one head coach job to another in the same conference - in ANY conference, let alone the Big Ten?
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It's uncommon, but not incredibly rare. Dan Mullen, Steve Sarkisian, Tommy Tubberville, Tubby Smith (wrong sport obviously). Sure I'm missing a few.

But yea, I can't think of even one example of it happening within the Big Ten.
 

Some guy said:
I get what you’re saying but really odd play to come into this thread d
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"odd play" to come into a thread about PJ Fleck job change speculation to talk about collecting threads about PJ Fleck job change speculation?
 



Some guy said:
Take over for
3-9
5-7
7-6
11-2
8-5
7-6
5-7

Go
10-3
10-3
8-5
10-3
9-4

and everyone wants you fired


Take over for
6-7
8-5
8-5
6-7
9-4

go
5-7
7-6
11-2

and you’re the National media’s darling



that’s the number one reason not to go to Michigan from Minnesota
Click to expand...
So you think Fleck thinks he can't get it done at Michigan?
 

Zeppelin Gopher said:
Not really, Leach and Tucker in the last cycle alone. There is at least one P5 to P5 in every carousel I'd bet
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Don't think there were any in 2019, so two of the last 50ish HC hires in FBS?
 

PMWinSTP said:
Don't think there were any in 2019, so two of the last 50ish HC hires in FBS?
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There are about 25 coaching changes in the FBS every year, and in this 10 year cycle there was roughly one P5 to P5 per year. Additionally this does not include hired like Leach to Wazzu or Muschamp to South Carolina as they took one year breaks between stops.

2019 -- Mike Leach and Mel Tucker
2018 -- None
2017 -- Kevin Sumlin, Jimbo Fisher and Dan Mullen
2016 -- None
2015 -- Mark Richt
2014 -- Gary Andersen and Mike Riley
2013 -- Steve Sarkisian and James Franklin
2012 -- Bret Bielema
2011 -- None
2010 -- Lane Kiffin
 

I heard that if the gophers win, P.J. will be on the bus back to Michigan as their new coach.
 

noamfromm said:
There are about 25 coaching changes in the FBS every year, and in this 10 year cycle there was roughly one P5 to P5 per year. Additionally this does not include hired like Leach to Wazzu or Muschamp to South Carolina as they took one year breaks between stops.

2019 -- Mike Leach and Mel Tucker
2018 -- None
2017 -- Kevin Sumlin, Jimbo Fisher and Dan Mullen
2016 -- None
2015 -- Mark Richt
2014 -- Gary Andersen and Mike Riley
2013 -- Steve Sarkisian and James Franklin
2012 -- Bret Bielema
2011 -- None
2010 -- Lane Kiffin
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Thanks for the list. Yeah, I counted Leach and Tucker as 2020 (season) and then none in 2019 season and so on. So about 4%. To me, that is rare. From this list, I think Sarkisian is the only one to do it within the same conference...so about .4%. To me, that is very rare.
 

noamfromm said:
There are about 25 coaching changes in the FBS every year, and in this 10 year cycle there was roughly one P5 to P5 per year. Additionally this does not include hired like Leach to Wazzu or Muschamp to South Carolina as they took one year breaks between stops.

2019 -- Mike Leach and Mel Tucker
2018 -- None
2017 -- Kevin Sumlin, Jimbo Fisher and Dan Mullen
2016 -- None
2015 -- Mark Richt
2014 -- Gary Andersen and Mike Riley
2013 -- Steve Sarkisian and James Franklin
2012 -- Bret Bielema
2011 -- None
2010 -- Lane Kiffin
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What's the list like if you take out coaches that were fired from their previous job?
 

swelna said:
What's the list like if you take out coaches that were fired from their previous job?
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2019 -- Mike Leach and Mel Tucker
2018 -- None
2017 -- Kevin Sumlin, Jimbo Fisher and Dan Mullen
2016 -- None
2015 -- Mark Richt
2014 -- Gary Andersen and Mike Riley
2013 -- Steve Sarkisian and James Franklin
2012 -- Bret Bielema
2011 -- None
2010 -- Lane Kiffin

The coaches in bold were fired, so it doesn't change the list very much.
 

PMWinSTP said:
Thanks for the list. Yeah, I counted Leach and Tucker as 2020 (season) and then none in 2019 season and so on. So about 4%. To me, that is rare. From this list, I think Sarkisian is the only one to do it within the same conference...so about .4%. To me, that is very rare.
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I'll agree with you that switching in conference is very rare. In this sample it happened once a decade. The only one I know of in the Big Ten was Wes Fesler coming to Minnesota from OSU. With that said I don't think something happening on average once per cycle is rare.
 

noamfromm said:
2019 -- Mike Leach and Mel Tucker
2018 -- None
2017 -- Kevin Sumlin, Jimbo Fisher and Dan Mullen
2016 -- None
2015 -- Mark Richt
2014 -- Gary Andersen and Mike Riley
2013 -- Steve Sarkisian and James Franklin
2012 -- Bret Bielema
2011 -- None
2010 -- Lane Kiffin

The coaches in bold were fired, so it doesn't change the list very much.
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So then go through, and which of these were a guy getting "upgraded" in program stature, vs a lateral move?

Arguable, Franklin made the largest jump up, from Vandy to Penn State.

You could argue Riley leaving OR St to take over for Pelini at Neb, where he had gotten them, was an upgrade. Could possibly argue Mullen leaving Miss St for Florida was an upgrade? But not as sure on that one.


As much as we hate it, would probably be seen as an upgrade to go from Minn to Mich.
 

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