Packers decision to kick field goal late - can anyone explain it?

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MNVCGUY said:
I can kind of understand this line of thinking but still feel like it was misguided during the game. Brady had struggled in the second half so him leading a game winning drive wasn't a sure thing. On the flip side I would put strong odds on his ability to run out the clock.

If the field goal eliminates your need for a TD it makes perfect sense but to me your odds of getting that needed TD are far better from the 8 than relying on getting the ball back with limited time on the clock needing to cover a big chunk of yards.
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It’s stupid.

Green Bay gave up a chance to tie with a touchdown and kicked a field goal in order to create an opportunity for a last minute drive where they still need a touchdown.


go for it on 4th and miss....and they are in the exact same situation they were in after they kicked a field goal. Needing a touchdown and being without the ball.
 

MNVCGUY said:
I can kind of understand this line of thinking but still feel like it was misguided during the game. Brady had struggled in the second half so him leading a game winning drive wasn't a sure thing. On the flip side I would put strong odds on his ability to run out the clock.

If the field goal eliminates your need for a TD it makes perfect sense but to me your odds of getting that needed TD are far better from the 8 than relying on getting the ball back with limited time on the clock needing to cover a big chunk of yards.
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That's a fair point. Depends on how limited clock we're talking about. Had things gone according to Packers plan, they would have gotten the ball back around their own 30 with around 1:45 left and 1 timeout. Plenty of time to go down the field and score a go ahead touchdown.

The low key play of the game was the Bucs getting a big chunk of yardage on that first down play. Changed everything. Had they thrown an incompletion, then two minute warning, then two safe runs to kill clock, we're probably talking about a Packer win.
 

Some guy said:
It’s stupid.

Green Bay gave up a chance to tie with a touchdown and kicked a field goal in order to create an opportunity for a last minute drive where they still need a touchdown.


go for it on 4th and miss....and they are in the exact same situation they were in after they kicked a field goal. Needing a touchdown and being without the ball.
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The key point there is needing a touchdown to WIN the game. You still lose roughly half the time if you just force overtime.
 

upnorthkid said:
Frankly I’d love to see this mythical “chart” they’re all using because there’s no way in hell it can accurate across the league. It would need to be updated to opponent (a higher rated Qb gives you the ball back less in that situation) and updated based on time left in game (if they only need one first down to ice it versus 6 minutes left, it’s a very different situation) as well as field position (pinning them at the 8 is way different than at the 30, but those are both conceivable distances to consider going for it vs FG). Further then when this chart was created is important. The game has changed drastically over the last several years and so data from decades ago, if being at all applied, is relatively useless.
in all, it was a bad call when youhave a HOF QB and you can pin them deep (where teams are far more likely to play conservative) with that along time left. Using the chart to try justify it is silly and he’s rightfully going to be crucified for it
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This. Is this mythical "chart" that always gets mentioned based on league averages? Doing what they did against the Jets and Sam Darnold is not the same as doing it against the Bucs and Tom Brady. Does it take into account field position? The Bucs are much more likely to be conservative if backed up at their own 8 yard line if you don't convert on 4th down, which means you are more likely to get the ball back. I think coaches love this "chart", as they can always fall back and blame the chart, saying that's what they should have done.
 

I also thought the 2pt conversion was misguided in the 3rd quarter. On average, 28% of points are scored in the 4th quarter, versus 21% of points in the 3rd quarter. There is a high likelihood that both teams will score some points in the 4th quarter. So going for 2 to align scores/points in the 3rd quarter is silly.
 


Schnauzer said:
One line of chatter from that game that is really getting to me is the pass interference call on the Tyler Johnson play shouldn't have been called because the refs were letting stuff go earlier in the game. I'd be more upset about missed calls than one that was called correctly, if I were Packer fans. In any level of football... it is an easy call when a defender grabs and pulls a receiver by the jersey. Its an obvious easy call. The first replay, from the side, didn't show the pull really well but the second replay from the end zone was obvious. And it also makes sense that the ref deep downfield made the call because he had that same view of the obvious garment pull. Johnson's tshirt was pulled back at least two feet and it clearly slowed him down. Obvious pass interference call.

You can't suggest rules should change IN GAME from game to game by saying they shouldn't have called that penalty because some similar infractions were missed earlier in the game.
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The only issue I had with the PI call was that the flag came in super late and from the back judge 20 yds away, but it was the right call.
 

forever a gopher said:
This. Is this mythical "chart" that always gets mentioned based on league averages? Doing what they did against the Jets and Sam Darnold is not the same as doing it against the Bucs and Tom Brady.
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FWIW Brady was just 6 of 13 for 69 yards with a TD and 3 INTs in the 2nd half before that throw to Evans on 1st down. Brady is the GOAT and super clutch, but Darnold not far off on those numbers.
 

WinLoseOrTy said:
The Tampa returner going down in front of the 2 minute warning was a terrible decision. It gave Green Bay and extra timeout and could have been a disaster. Luckily, Tampa flipped that mistake and threw on 1st down. Too many teams just run the ball up the middle in front of two minute warning. The clock is going to stop regardless so might as well go for yardage and throw.

The Packers purposely jumping offsides on 2nd and 1 was likewise brilliant. Tampa should have declined. Resetting the downs without having to burn a timeout was Green Bay's only play. Bucs gave them a lifeline by allowing it.
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I think the Tampa KR slipped, I don't think it was intentional, though maybe he was told to not risk a big hit and fumble.

Agreed on the intentional offsides. That was a heady decision.
 

WinLoseOrTy said:
The key point there is needing a touchdown to WIN the game. You still lose roughly half the time if you just force overtime.
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You lose 100% of the time if you don’t get the ball back
 



WinLoseOrTy said:
FWIW Brady was just 6 of 13 for 69 yards with a TD and 3 INTs in the 2nd half before that throw to Evans on 1st down. Brady is the GOAT and super clutch, but Darnold not far off on those numbers.
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Fair point. Honestly, that just proves my point about the "chart". There are so many variables, including current in-game performance. Now, if I'm LaFluer, I'm not betting against Brady in a clutch situation. I'm pretty sure he's proven that you shouldn't doubt him. I think you have to assume Brady will come through and that you need to score 8 to tie and HOPE for OT.
 

Schnauzer said:
One line of chatter from that game that is really getting to me is the pass interference call on the Tyler Johnson play shouldn't have been called because the refs were letting stuff go earlier in the game. I'd be more upset about missed calls than one that was called correctly, if I were Packer fans.
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As a Packer fan, I agree. I actually give credit to TJ for selling the hold. A heads up play by one of my favorite Gophers.

I'm frustrated more with the PI that was not called throughout the game, namely the one during Rodgers' INT. That was a big swing points-wise and likely affected the game more than whether or not they go for it on 4th and goal toward the end.
 


jonnyganas said:
As a Packer fan, I agree. I actually give credit to TJ for selling the hold. A heads up play by one of my favorite Gophers.

I'm frustrated more with the PI that was not called throughout the game, namely the one during Rodgers' INT. That was a big swing points-wise and likely affected the game more than whether or not they go for it on 4th and goal toward the end.
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The TJ hold was way more obvious than some of the other ones. When you can see 2 feet of jersey being pulled out the back it's hard to ignore that.
 



Word said:
The TJ hold was way more obvious than some of the other ones. When you can see 2 feet of jersey being pulled out the back it's hard to ignore that.
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Always wear an undershirt that is brightly colored
 

MNVCGUY said:
I mean I guess you can't blame him for thinking they wouldn't get it. I mean it isn't like he has a future HOF QB and one of the best receivers in the NFL on his offense.......
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Agreed! I guess he also thought that the future hall of Famer on tampa wasnt gonna get 10 yards on 3 plays. Everyone on the planet knew aaron rodgers wasnt gonna get the ball back except for lafleur.
 

The card must have said kick field goal lol he didnt read the fine print at bottom that said if you have hall of fame qb go for it or if hall of famer on other team go for it lol
 

This one shows the chances went down slightly with the FG. The really big mistake was Rodgers not running it on 3rd down. I think he scores or at the very least gets close.

 

GophersInIowa said:
This one shows the chances went down slightly with the FG. The really big mistake was Rodgers not running it on 3rd down. I think he scores or at the very least gets close.

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Less of a difference than I would have thought.
 

GophersInIowa said:
This one shows the chances went down slightly with the FG. The really big mistake was Rodgers not running it on 3rd down. I think he scores or at the very least gets close.

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Honestly this is a classic example of coaches out thinking themselves. Obviously if they somehow manage to win the game then he looks like a genius but to me it boils down to this: Do you want to give Tom Brady the ball knowing all he has to do to win the game is get 1 first down?

Don't know about you but the last thing I want to do is give the ball to the GOAT with the lead near the end of regulation.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Honestly this is a classic example of coaches out thinking themselves. Obviously if they somehow manage to win the game then he looks like a genius but to me it boils down to this: Do you want to give Tom Brady the ball knowing all he has to do to win the game is get 1 first down?

Don't know about you but the last thing I want to do is give the ball to the GOAT with the lead near the end of regulation.
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Not just give the ball to the GOAT... take it out of the hands of your own GOAT.

That's a lot of bad GOATing choices...
 

Word said:
The TJ hold was way more obvious than some of the other ones. When you can see 2 feet of jersey being pulled out the back it's hard to ignore that.
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I think it was the stumble to the ground at the end of the play that sold it. In real-time, I thought he was shoved. In the replay, he went to the ground on his own. It was smart.
 


GopherWeatherGuy said:
It was a loser move and that's why they lost.
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The game and the moment were too big for him, plain and simple. He hasn't put on his big-boy pants yet.

On one sideline, you have Arians throwing it to the end zone at the end of the first half instead of settling for a quick out route and FG attempt; on the other sideline you have a coach with the presumed league MVP, and the best redzone TD percentage team in league history, kicking a FG with barely over 2 minutes left.

That's it in a nutshell. Somebody needs to remind LaFLeur, my Arians favorite, "No risk it, No Biscuit!!!"
 

Schnauzer said:
Horrible decision. I nearly fell out of my chair when the field goal unit was sent out.
If they don’t convert 4th and goal, they still have TB pinned deep, with their timeouts and a chance at a short field for their offense in the final minute. By kicking the field goal, they still would need a TD on a likely long drive.
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I LOVED the decision! I didn't fall off my couch, I stood up and cheered. I didn't think they'd get the ball back AND the fact our guy Tyler helped put the nail in the coffin, made it even sweeter!
 

WinLoseOrTy said:
The key point there is needing a touchdown to WIN the game. You still lose roughly half the time if you just force overtime.
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I would argue you lose more than half the time choosing the route they did!
 

After thinking about it, are Lafleur and PJ related in some way?
#decisions
 

Hate the Packers so was thrilled they lost. Hard to understand why you would ever take the ball out of Rodgers hands given how many games he has been the reason they won. It really was Viking like but super happy for AWjr n TJ getting to play in the Super Bowl their rookie season !!
 


GophersInIowa said:
This one shows the chances went down slightly with the FG. The really big mistake was Rodgers not running it on 3rd down. I think he scores or at the very least gets close.

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Punt!!!!!!!
 


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