P5 teams that go 7-2 are usually ranked - except Minnesota

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Gopher07

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Looks like this year we might "pull a Minnesota" again, and reach 7-2 without a ranking. Not saying anything about what we deserve given our schedule strength to date, just find it an interesting little tidbit about the rankings and our team - three of the last eight major conference teams to reach early November with a 7-2 record and no AP ranking were our very own Golden Gophers.

Looking back through the AP Poll, here are the major conference teams that have been unranked following the 9th game of the season for most teams, over the past eight seasons:

2015: No P5 team with a record of 7-2 or greater was unranked in early November (11/8 poll)
2014: Missouri, Minnesota were both 7-2 and unranked (11/9 poll)
2013: Minnesota, Nebraska, Duke all 7-2 or better and unranked (11/10 poll)
2012: Northwestern was 7-2 and unranked (11/4 poll)
2011: No P5 team with a record of 7-2 or greater was unranked in early November (11/6 poll)
2010: No P5 team with a record of 7-2 or greater was unranked in early November (11/7 poll)
2009: No P5 team with a record of 7-2 or greater was unranked in early November (11/8 poll)
2008: Minnesota and Northwestern were 7-2 and unranked (11/2 poll)

This year, there's probably only one team with a shot at pulling it off - our Golden Gophers, who sit at 6-2 but 38th in votes received after this week. It's doubtful we jump 13 spots with a home win over Purdue. Every other major conference team with two or fewer losses on the season is ranked currently, and none of the 7-1 teams are close to falling out of the poll.

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Edit: For those wondering, here are the 7-2 P5 teams that were ranked each of the years:

2015 (5): Michigan, UCLA, Florida State, Mississippi State, Northwestern
2014 (8): Auburn, Michigan State, Kansas State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Arizona, Clemson, Wisconsin
2013 (7): South Carolina, UCLA, Wisconsin, Arizona State, Oklahoma, Texas, Miami
2012 (8): LSU, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Stanford, UCLA, Nebraska, Texas, Mississippi State
2011 (9): Michigan State, Georgia, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Kansas State, USC, Nebraska, Georgia Tech, Michigan
2010 (8): Alabama, Iowa, Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, Arizona, Oklahoma, Missouri
2009 (6): LSU, USC, Miami, Oregon, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin
2008 (5): Ohio State, Missouri, Georgia, Michigan State, Georgia Tech

In all, from 2008-2015, 56 major conference teams were 7-2 and ranked, eight were 7-2 and unranked (13%).

This year, we'll have some combination of: Louisville, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Auburn, Utah, North Carolina, Penn State, Colorado, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Washington State
 


Nice analysis.

I can't speak to the other years, but this year's squad doesn't feel deserving quite yet. We've beaten nobody.

After a Nebraska win, yes.
 

I don't believe we deserve to be ranked at this point, but wow -- that's really interesting data.
 

Looks like some midwest and Big Ten bias as well.
 


They shouldn't be, but then again, they are only two plays or so from being 9-0.
 

If our Defensive Backs weren't suspended against Penn State, where would we be ranked?
If Jonah Persig had not been injured against Iowa, where would we be ranked?
 

I don't disagree with the sentiment that we shouldn't be ranked - frankly we haven't looked good enough. Just find it interesting that historically, we've found ourselves in this situation way more than other teams.

After this coming weekend, if we win and don't jump 13 spots, we will make up nearly half of the instances of this happening over the past nine seasons (and it's not a common occurrence - only happens to one in ten teams in a similar situation). That's pretty incredible to me.
 

BarnBoy said:
Nice analysis.

I can't speak to the other years, but this year's squad doesn't feel deserving quite yet. We've beaten nobody.

After a Nebraska win, yes.
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Agreed. No wins against anyone of character. Maryland is our best win so far...
 



I'm not sure if we have Stewart Mandel's vote, but we're on his radar at least.

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If they go 8-2 they will be ranked, if they happen to win the next two and still aren't ranked it is an issue.
 

I don't really disagree that Minnesota isn't rated Top 25, but I do have an issue with Nebraska being rated 9th in the nation. How in the world can you not beat a Top 40 team in S&P+ ratings and considered 9th in the nation? Nebraska's strongest win right now is against a 46th ranked Indiana. A game they barely pulled out if you watched it.
 



BarnBoy said:
Nice analysis.

I can't speak to the other years, but this year's squad doesn't feel deserving quite yet. We've beaten nobody.

After a Nebraska win, yes.
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Plus,Plus! Beat Purdue handily at our house and then Nebraska in 2 weeks at theirs and we earn a great deal of respect.
 

homermn said:
I don't really disagree that Minnesota isn't rated Top 25, but I do have an issue with Nebraska being rated 9th in the nation. How in the world can you not beat a Top 40 team in S&P+ ratings and considered 9th in the nation? Nebraska's strongest win right now is against a 46th ranked Indiana. A game they barely pulled out if you watched it.
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Nebraska is a clear case of why pre-season rankings are worthless. Agree that top 10 is probably too high for them but because Oregon was ranked when they beat them it propelled them into the rankings and then they kept on winning while the teams around them lost which moved them up. They are a very solid team this year but I do think they are over rated at the moment.

As for the Gophers I am with those in this tread that have said it doesn't feel like a slight at all that we are not rated at the moment given who we have played to this point. I also don't think a win over Purdue will do much to bump us in the minds of most voters as Purdue is very bad. We are getting to the point in the season where the polls are actually somewhat accurate, win the next 2 and we will definitely be in the top 25.
 

Had we finished off either Iowa or PSU, I think we'd be in there.
 


Sparlimb said:
Agreed. No wins against anyone of character. Maryland is our best win so far...
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Agreed. Assuming we beat Purdue, we will have a 7-2 record by virtue of beating Oregon State (one of the two bottom dwellers in the PAC 12), Indiana State (an FCS team), Colorado State (a middle-of-the pack Mountain West team), Rutgers (the bottom of the Big 10), Maryland, Illinois (2-6 with one victory against an FBS team), and Purdue (a bottom dweller with an interim coach) and losing to unranked Iowa at home and one very close loss on the road to a legit ranked team (PSU).

Why should we be ranked if we are 7-2 after that schedule? If we become 8-2 with a win over Nebraska at Lincoln, then that's a different story. Maybe we should get consideration if we are 8-3 with a win over Northwestern.
 

7-2 with a best win of Maryland does not sound like a ranked team. But 8-2 with a road win @ Nebraska certainly would deserve consideration for the top 25, especially if the 'Huskers win in Columbus this weekend.

(just saw that I pretty much duplicated prior post. ... didn't see that before I posted)
 

SelectionSunday said:
7-2 with a best win of Maryland does not sound like a ranked team. But 8-2 with a road win @ Nebraska certainly would deserve consideration for the top 25, especially if the 'Huskers win in Columbus this weekend.
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Totally agree. Curious that it seems to happen to us often, but as mentioned, can't argue that this year it seems to be the right call given the data available.
 

It happens to us often because voters trust the eye test to some degree, and they are often right. That paired with our tradition of toe-stubbing ourselves at every opportunity puts us at about this level of consideration. The overwhelming number of losses against the mid and top-tier B1G programs over the last decade+ shows that those votes are correct. And those losses aren't just injured players, luck, refs, etc. We lose these games because our players get worked over by a better team.

We will get votes by earning confidence. Have to start beating WI, NEB, OSU, Mich, and Mich St. on occasion, and not only when these squads have down years (even then we rarely earn the W).
 

I thought the Rutgers win was actually a loss so aren't we really 5-3?
 

Best win is Maryland with a backup quarterback.
Second best win is over 4-4 Colorado state? I don't know what the second best win is.

Win 2 of the next four and others receiving votes going into the bowls.
Win 3 and they'll be top 20.
Win 4 and they'll be top 12 going into the BtT game
 

Some guy said:
Best win is Maryland with a backup quarterback.
Second best win is over 4-4 Colorado state? I don't know what the second best win is.

Win 2 of the next four and others receiving votes going into the bowls.
Win 3 and they'll be top 20.
Win 4 and they'll be top 12 going into the BtT game
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According to S&P rankings, these are the wins from best to worst:
Colorado State #58
Maryland #68
Oregon State #84
Rutgers #113
Indiana State FCS

Sagarin
Maryland #65
Oregon State #80
Colorado State #92
Rutgers #117
Indiana State #159
 

GophersInIowa said:
I thought the Rutgers win was actually a loss so aren't we really 5-3?
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As it pertains to being ranked the Rutgers game kind of was like a loss. Had we blown them out we would be getting more attention from a rankings standpoint, the fact that we needed a late FG to beat a really bad team I'm sure didn't inspire a lot of confidence in the National voters.
 

I think Nebraska was the beneficiary of one or two highly or slightly overrated opponents right? Also, an OT loss to Wisconsin doesn't look all the bad either. Of course, that's assuming Wisconsin is worthy of their rank, which I'm skeptical of.
 

I don't see Nebraska being in the Top 25 as wrong based on their schedule and play, but Top 10 is way too generous for what they have and haven't done.

I don't like the idea that playing a ranked team who later underperforms on expectations and ends up being unranked (see Oregon and Michigan State) means that previous wins are treated As Was. They lost to a team in OT who is now in the Top 10, we lost to a team in OT who is in the Top 20. We have a bad loss to Iowa, they have no bad losses. Nebraska at 22 and Minnesota at 38 feels about right to me.

Let's see what the CFP committee says tomorrow.
 

BarnBoy said:
Nice analysis.

I can't speak to the other years, but this year's squad doesn't feel deserving quite yet. We've beaten nobody.

After a Nebraska win, yes.
Click to expand...

Pending what Neb does this week, a win over them would likely vault us up into the top 20.
 


Rankings aside, if we win next week and NE loses (both likely), the Gophers will be tied for first in the West in November. As frustrating as this year has been at times, that'll definitely feel good and hopefully provide some added motivation for the team down the stretch.
 

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