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CutDownTheNet said:
So here’s what would be a rotten shame. If (say) we win out our remaining games and are technically then third ranked (as we are now) among Big-Ten teams when ranked by NCAA win-loss record, yet due solely to our horrible SoS, we don’t get an invitation to the NCAA playoffs. That could potentially happen. If so, the fault would be solely on the ridiculously bad schedule - in particular the bad decision to play the above six bottom-100 teams. We could have (in some alternate reality) played six teams ranked between 150 and 250 instead, and still beaten those replacement teams, and thus had the identical season win-loss record, but without the extreme impact on SoS, and thus a good RPI, and been in the tournament.

Moral: We need to take care in scheduling next year.
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During one of the post-game events for season ticket holders with Kelly Roysland and Whalen the question was raised about the NC scheduling for next year. The response was that it would be much tougher next year. It was a short answer which seemed to not want to criticize the strength of schedule that they were handed.

So, hopefully that response will mean that next year this won't be a long discussion.

I always assumed that Stollings scheduled to pad her resume. After all, I have never seen a coach's winning percentage with some kind of RPI or SOS attached to it in parenthesis.
 

Shades said:
Is MSU at #24 even after losing to Wisconsin?
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Yes, MSU current RPI #24 with SoS #42 and B1G 6-6 and NCAA 17-7.
Compare to MN RPI #103 with SoS #143 and B1G 7-7 and NCAA 18-7.
If we beat them at home, we go a full game ahead of them in B1G. For now, our records are quite similar.

Interestingly, MSU played four bottom-100 teams (to our six). Given similar records, one might expect their SoS to be rather high, but not as high as our #143. But what they did in order to get an SoS of #42 was to play two top-10 teams (to our one), plus another 76-ranked team and a 100-ranked team. Their (and our) top-100 NC opponents were:

MSU Opp (Rank) MN Opp (Rank)
Oregon (4) Syracuse (10)
N.C. State (8)
Wright State (76)
Virginia (100)

By the way, the Spartans lost to N.C. State, but beat Oregon and the others. Being on neutral ground, the loss to N.C. State was most likely net-beneficial to its RPI.

So my guess is that the way it sorta works is, each top-ten opponent “atones” for about a pair of bottom-100 opponents. That leaves four “unatoned” bottom-100 opponents for MN, whereas MSU’s bottom-100 sins were completely atoned-for. Plus MSU gets credit-in-heaven for Wright State and Virginia.

In general, MSU has somewhat balanced opponents, but MN has unbalanced opponents, tilted more toward the cupcake end.

The result is something like this. MSU and MN both have natural nRPI near (guessing) 19. Its SoS of #42 is not too bad, but does drag down its RPI to #24. MN on the other hand has a horrible SoS of #143 drag its nRPI of 19 all the way down to an RPI of #103.

You see how RPI is a weighted average of nRPI and SoS, but with a heavier weight on SoS. The nRPI here is just a term I made up to represent the won-loss term in the RPI equation, which happens to be about the same for MSU and MN - to order of magnitude.

The point of the last exercise is to show vividly (without trotting out the similar but complicated true RPI equation) how RPI is mostly a measure of Strength of Schedule, and only to a lesser extent a measure of how good is the actual basketball team.

Therefore, whenever a team (like Minnesota, for example) gives itself a horribly cupcake NC schedule (without compensating via enough top-ten NC opponents), then it is effectively sending an engraved letter to the selection committee, saying “Please don’t invite us to the Big Dance - we don’t want to go - unless, that is, we win virtually all our games - in which case you will notice that and invite us anyway.”

So for MSU and Minnesota, who are virtually equally capable teams, MSU has a nearly guaranteed invitation to the Big Dance (4th among those “in”), whereas Minnesota is first team out (about #8) for the Big Ten.

By the way, Gamer predicts we beat MSU at home, and has that baked into its projection of a final MSU RPI of #23. So we probably won’t knock MSU out of top 25 when we beat them (I’m being optimistic here, but I think it’s appropriate).

By the way, since Gamer also has our projected defeat of MSU baked into Minnesota projection of end of season RPI #91 and SoS of #107, the only way we can improve on those numbers is to also beat the two teams it thinks we lose to, namely Rutgers and Maryland.

So it’s “win out the remaining Big Ten season” or/and “win the Big Ten Tourney.” No pressure!

Go Gophers, you can do this!
 
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Huge win for Iowa. I really think Maryland could be an interesting game for us. Don't sleep on us winning that game
 
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Looks like Nebraska wants to help the Gophers out. MSU seems like a different animal on the road.
 


What in the world is wrong with MSU on the road? That team might be the third most talented team in the BIG...and they stink on the road.
 

Do we cheer for Purdue to beat Northwestern? If Purdue wins, both teams are then 8-7 in conference.
 


tripledouble said:
Do we cheer for Purdue to beat Northwestern? If Purdue wins, both teams are then 8-7 in conference.
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I think we might want Purdue to lose. Their RPI is significantly better than Northwestern's and Minnesota's (between PU and NW, PU has a tougher remaining schedule, though). If those two teams and the Gophers end up in the same neck of the woods, RPI-wise, that's probably good for the Gophers.
 



Hopefully next season with 4-5 games left, we are talking about what # seed we will be. Not whether we will make the tourney
 

Big ten officiating at its finest. Currently 10 fts to 0 in the rutgers game.
 

I assume you're referring to Rutgers at Indiana? Definitely one of the most irritating games I've ever watched. Also, what the heck happened to CVS? She used to be one of the coaches I most respected and now her teams are full of undisciplined creeps.
 

Rutgers has a bench player with 24 pts. Must be nice, or is this a usual starter?
 



MSU's underwhelming season continues as they lose to OSU at home, 77-70. IMO, Suzy Merchant not in the running for BIG Coach of the Year. MSU falls to 7-8 in BIG play.
 

Indiana looks like they might knock off Iowa, unless they CHOKE.
 


https://www.onthebanks.com/2019/2/2...-76-big-ten-c-vivian-stringer-caitlin-jenkins

Minnesota's next opponent, Rutgers, lost in Ann Arbor 86-76 without head coach C Vivian Stringer who was under the weather and did not make the trip. Earlier in the day it was confirmed that Caitlin Jenkins (whose troubles came to light before the Gopher game) was officially dismissed from the team.


Rutgers played it’s worst defensive game of the season without its head coach C. Vivian Stringer, who stayed in New Jersey due to being sick. Assistant coach Tim Eatman served as acting head coach for this game.

It was a close game for much of the night with Michigan leading 38-36 at the half. However, Rutgers was outscored 23-17 in the third quarter and while they cut the lead down to five points several times, they never got closer than 71-66 with 3:47 remaining in the game.

Rutgers was better offensively, shooting 45.3% from the field and 32% on 8 of 25 shots from three-point range. They lost the rebounding battle (35-29) overall, but held a +1 advantage on the offensive glass, which resulted in a 22-15 edge in second chance points. However, Michigan held an advantage with points in the paint at 48-42. The Wolverines also had a +1 turnover margin and 23-18 edge in points off of them.

Michigan was led by Naz Hillmon, who led all scorers with 21 points. Both Nicole Munger and Hallie Thome scores 16 points while Deja Church added 11 points.

Rutgers was led by Charise Wilson, who scored 14 points on 5 of 9 shooting, including 4 of 7 from three-point range. She added 3 rebounds and an assist. Stasha Carey remained steady inside, scoring 13 points on 5 of 8 shooting, grabbing 6 rebounds and adding 2 assists. Arella Guirantes also scored 13 points on 5 of 13 shooting and added 3 rebounds. CC Cryor had 8 points but struggled making just 3 of 12 shots. However she did dish out a team high 8 assists as well as 3 steals and 3 rebounds.
 

Michigan St takes down Michigan. I’m guessing that’s a good thing, but maybe not since now MSU is in the mix for a higher seed.
 

Opportunity or...?

Maryland 13-3
Iowa 12-4
Rutgers 10-5
Michigan 10-7
Ohio State 9-7

Minnesota 8-8
Michigan State 8-8
Purdue 8-8
Northwestern 8-8
Nebraska 8-8

Indiana 7-9
Wisconsin 4-11
Penn State 4-11
Illinois 2-14
 

Feb. 25, 2019 Maryland at Purdue West Lafayette, IN 6:30 pm BTN
Wisconsin at Rutgers Piscataway, NJ 7:00 pm BTN Plus
Iowa at Nebraska Lincoln, NE 8:30 pm BTN
Feb. 26, 2019 Indiana at Northwestern Evanston, IL 8:00 pm BTN Plus
Feb. 27, 2019 Penn State at Michigan State East Lansing, MI 7:00 pm BTN Plus
Feb. 28, 2019 Minnesota at Rutgers Piscataway, NJ 6:30 pm BTN
Ohio State at Wisconsin Madison, WI 9:00 pm BTN
Mar. 2, 2019 Illinois at Maryland College Park, MD 2:00 pm BTN Plus
Nebraska at Penn State University Park, PA 3:00 pm BTN
Mar. 3, 2019 Purdue at Indiana Bloomington, IN 12:00 pm BTN
Wisconsin at Michigan Ann Arbor, MI 2:00 pm BTN Plus
Rutgers at Ohio State Columbus, OH 2:00 pm BTN
Northwestern at Iowa Iowa City, IA 4:00 pm BTN
Michigan State at Minnesota Minneapolis, MN 4:00 pm BTN Plus

Maryland 15-3
Iowa 14-4
Michigan 11-8
Ohio St 10-8
Minnesota 10-8
Rutgers 10-8
Purdue 9-9
Michigan St 9-9
Northwestern 9-9
Nebraska 9-9
Indiana 8-10
Wisconsin 7-11
Penn St 6-12
Illinois 2-16
 
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Purdue lost to Michigan 58-55, so step 1 is complete. Now it'd be nice for Purdue to lose to Indiana.

Wisconsin is losing big to Rutgers, so meh.
 
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Gosh, I would love it if Sam Haiby (currently shredding the Iowa "defense") were a Gopher instead of a Husker.
 

PSU didnt help themselves, or the Gophers, out with tonight's loss to MSU.
 

As long as Minnesota can help themselves by winning their own games, they shouldn’t need any help from other teams. Although if Northwestern can beat Iowa in that game, it’d be somewhat helpful in reaching the #5 seed. But I think I prefer the #6 seed. I’d rather go through Iowa.
 
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Indiana making their NCAA argument leading Purdue 43-22 at the half. Sharon Versyp with the late technical springboarding a Hoosier run.
 

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