OT: Wisconsin is going to be down this year

[KD6-3.7]

i was noticing that over 90% of the predictions in the prediction thread have us beating wisconsin. while i think that this might be a little homer, i also think that BB will be on s hot seat after the badgers go 6-6 this year.

1. the starting QB might be a RS freshman, but even more exciting for minnesota fans is that no one truly knows who the QB will be. last i read there were three, possibly four, potential starters. it seems like RS freshman phillips is the likely starter, but scherer and tolzien are just as likely, and i have even seen some conjecture that true freshman budmayr might even be considered for the starter position. having a three way battle for QB at this point in the year is a BAD thing, and no matter how good the sconite receivers are (a strong point for the badgers), unless they have a QB that can get them the ball, the offense will struggle.

2. RB is also a question mark. i know you have been hearing from sconite fans for years that clay is the next badger heisman RB, but at this point it looks like he wont even start in favor of junior zach brown. brown may very well be a good back, but i have a hard time believing that he would have been able to make it to his junior year without getting more than 170 touches if he was. also, the rumors are that clay is too heavy. i read that he is 260 and he certainly did not look svelte on the Big Ten preview. combine that with ankle problems and the badgers might have to rely on true freshman montee ball.

3. injuries. while the badgers are usually very deep at o-line, gabe carimi injured his knee last week, and even though the badger coaches say it is only a sprain and will be back soon, i will believe that when i see it.

4. razor thin depth in the secondary. i bet they are wishing that they had royston right about now. with the suspensions of carter and pleasant, their depth will be a problem. but this brings up the most important reason as to why the badgers are sliding:

5. carter and pleasant are fifth year seniors and are leftovers from the alvarez years. the reports are that carter and pleasant were openly disrespectful to BB. this could mean that the culture under BB has degenerated since alvarez left. the badgers have gone all-in behind BB (not unlike the gophers have with brewster), and if he is not the same developer (or recognizer) of talent as alvarez was, then the dipping W/L record might actually dip even more than the experts are expecting this year.

 

[GoAUpher]

i was noticing that over 90% of the predictions in the prediction thread have us beating wisconsin. while i think that this might be a little homer, i also think that BB will be on s hot seat after the badgers go 6-6 this year.

1. the starting QB might be a RS freshman, but even more exciting for minnesota fans is that no one truly knows who the QB will be. last i read there were three, possibly four, potential starters. it seems like RS freshman phillips is the likely starter, but scherer and tolzien are just as likely, and i have even seen some conjecture that true freshman budmayr might even be considered for the starter position. having a three way battle for QB at this point in the year is a BAD thing, and no matter how good the sconite receivers are (a strong point for the badgers), unless they have a QB that can get them the ball, the offense will struggle.

2. RB is also a question mark. i know you have been hearing from sconite fans for years that clay is the next badger heisman RB, but at this point it looks like he wont even start in favor of junior zach brown. brown may very well be a good back, but i have a hard time believing that he would have been able to make it to his junior year without getting more than 170 touches if he was. also, the rumors are that clay is too heavy. i read that he is 260 and he certainly did not look svelte on the Big Ten preview. combine that with ankle problems and the badgers might have to rely on true freshman montee ball.

3. injuries. while the badgers are usually very deep at o-line, gabe carimi injured his knee last week, and even though the badger coaches say it is only a sprain and will be back soon, i will believe that when i see it.

4. razor thin depth in the secondary. i bet they are wishing that they had royston right about now. with the suspensions of carter and pleasant, their depth will be a problem. but this brings up the most important reason as to why the badgers are sliding:

5. carter and pleasant are fifth year starters and are leftovers from the alvarez years. the reports are that carter and pleasant were openly disrespectful to BB. this could mean that the culture under BB has degenerated since alvarez left. the badgers have gone all-in behind BB (not unlike the gophers have with brewster), and if he is not the same developer (or recognizer) of talent as alvarez was, then the dipping W/L record might actually dip even more than the experts are expecting this year.

#'s 1, 3, 4, and 5 seem like decent reasons to be optimistic about a W over UW. But I think you're wrong on #2. RB is not a weak spot for UW. Brown is a good back. Clay is a good back. Having too many good backs to get them all carries doesn't mean some of them suck. It means you have too many good backs to get them all carries.

 

[Schnauzer]

One thing I find curious is most everyone is predicting a W against Wisconsin, and if you look at fan predictions on Wisconsin boards, a surprising number of their fans are predicting an L against the Gophers... BUT... I don't recall seeing ANY predition that puts the Gophers above the Badgers in the season-end standings.

BB just seems like waaaaaaay too big of a jerk to NOT bring the program down sooner or later. It seems to be on a steady slide but that is only a perception at this point. This year will go a long way to confirming, or refuting that opinion.

 

[mplsbadger]

i was noticing that over 90% of the predictions in the prediction thread have us beating wisconsin. while i think that this might be a little homer, i also think that BB will be on s hot seat after the badgers go 6-6 this year.

1. the starting QB might be a RS freshman, but even more exciting for minnesota fans is that no one truly knows who the QB will be. last i read there were three, possibly four, potential starters. it seems like RS freshman phillips is the likely starter, but scherer and tolzien are just as likely, and i have even seen some conjecture that true freshman budmayr might even be considered for the starter position. having a three way battle for QB at this point in the year is a BAD thing, and no matter how good the sconite receivers are (a strong point for the badgers), unless they have a QB that can get them the ball, the offense will struggle.

2. RB is also a question mark. i know you have been hearing from sconite fans for years that clay is the next badger heisman RB, but at this point it looks like he wont even start in favor of junior zach brown. brown may very well be a good back, but i have a hard time believing that he would have been able to make it to his junior year without getting more than 170 touches if he was. also, the rumors are that clay is too heavy. i read that he is 260 and he certainly did not look svelte on the Big Ten preview. combine that with ankle problems and the badgers might have to rely on true freshman montee ball.

3. injuries. while the badgers are usually very deep at o-line, gabe carimi injured his knee last week, and even though the badger coaches say it is only a sprain and will be back soon, i will believe that when i see it.

4. razor thin depth in the secondary. i bet they are wishing that they had royston right about now. with the suspensions of carter and pleasant, their depth will be a problem. but this brings up the most important reason as to why the badgers are sliding:

5. carter and pleasant are fifth year starters and are leftovers from the alvarez years. the reports are that carter and pleasant were openly disrespectful to BB. this could mean that the culture under BB has degenerated since alvarez left. the badgers have gone all-in behind BB (not unlike the gophers have with brewster), and if he is not the same developer (or recognizer) of talent as alvarez was, then the dipping W/L record might actually dip even more than the experts are expecting this year.

1. Budamyr and Scherer are not in the mix. It is a two man race. While this may be a weakness vis a vis Weber, UW can win with modestly talented QB's if they are consistent. They led the league in rushing last year. Also, the last two 'runners' to play for UW are Samuel and Bollinger, both of whom won a B10 title and Rose Bowl. So while it is an area of a lot of uncertainty, the demands are different at UW than they are elsewhere.

2. Clay returns and had 2nd most yards of all returning RB's in the Big 10 behind the Penn State guy. Zach Brown torched the Gophers a couple years ago and his lack of playing time is more a signal of depth than poor ability on his part. This is not a weakness at Wisconsin.

3. If you watched the B10 visit to UW, the O-Line looked great even with the subs. The front seven is the big worry - they gave up a lot of big plays.

4. Depth is poor in the secondary but I think both Henry and Valai will be all Big 10 (1st, 2nd, or 3rd team). So barring injuries they should be o.k. Sadly for Badger fans they may be asked to make a lot of tackles.

5. Jury is still out on Bielema. I saw some quotes supporting his position, however this shouldn't happen.

I think you're way off on 6-6. According to the latest AP poll the Badgers play two top 25 teams and two 'others receiving votes'. They get Fresno State, Michigan State, & Iowa at home, while travelling to Minnesota, Ohio State, and Northwestern in their three toughest road games. Penn State is not on the schedule. I think they'll go at least 8-4.

 

[jaker404]

zach brown's bio: In 2007, named Big Ten Co-Offensive Player of the Week and UW offensive player of the week after he rushed for career-high 250 yards and two TDs on just 29 carries in win at Minnesota on Nov. 17 … his 250 yards against Golden Gophers were fourth-most ever for a UW freshman and 10th-most overall in school history

...I'd say the gophs better prepare for him.

 

[STPGopher]

zach brown's bio: In 2007, named Big Ten Co-Offensive Player of the Week and UW offensive player of the week after he rushed for career-high 250 yards and two TDs on just 29 carries in win at Minnesota on Nov. 17 … his 250 yards against Golden Gophers were fourth-most ever for a UW freshman and 10th-most overall in school history

...I'd say the gophs better prepare for him.

Unfortunately, I was thinking the same thing.

 

[i'm batman]

Unfortunately, I was thinking the same thing.

yeah, because the 2007 gopher defense was a world beater.

no wait, it was the worst in the nation!

sorry STPGopher, i meant to quota jaker.

 

[Goldentimeofday]

As much as I dislike WI, with that schedule, anything less than about 8-4 is a total disaster.

 

[MplsHammer]

I hate to say it, but I see them having a rebound year. Great schedule, strong run game, and the quarterback play can only improve. Their defense is full of holes and lacks depth, but they'll have a motivated coaching staff and it would still be hard to go 6-6 with that schedule.

 

[KD6-3.7]

1. Budamyr and Scherer are not in the mix. It is a two man race. While this may be a weakness vis a vis Weber, UW can win with modestly talented QB's if they are consistent. They led the league in rushing last year. Also, the last two 'runners' to play for UW are Samuel and Bollinger, both of whom won a B10 title and Rose Bowl. So while it is an area of a lot of uncertainty, the demands are different at UW than they are elsewhere.

2. Clay returns and had 2nd most yards of all returning RB's in the Big 10 behind the Penn State guy. Zach Brown torched the Gophers a couple years ago and his lack of playing time is more a signal of depth than poor ability on his part. This is not a weakness at Wisconsin.

3. If you watched the B10 visit to UW, the O-Line looked great even with the subs. The front seven is the big worry - they gave up a lot of big plays.

4. Depth is poor in the secondary but I think both Henry and Valai will be all Big 10 (1st, 2nd, or 3rd team). So barring injuries they should be o.k. Sadly for Badger fans they may be asked to make a lot of tackles.

5. Jury is still out on Bielema. I saw some quotes supporting his position, however this shouldn't happen.

I think you're way off on 6-6. According to the latest AP poll the Badgers play two top 25 teams and two 'others receiving votes'. They get Fresno State, Michigan State, & Iowa at home, while travelling to Minnesota, Ohio State, and Northwestern in their three toughest road games. Penn State is not on the schedule. I think they'll go at least 8-4.

first off, let me clear some things up. i did not mean to imply that the o-line was anything other than deep, i don't know anything about the depth (but i know that the badger o-line is usually deep), i was just using carimi's injury as an example (clay has had injury problems, i also read at badger beat that nagy was dealing with injuries). second, i also did not say that the badgers will have a poor running game, just that there is a question mark. clay is a good back, no doubt, but is overweight (according to the accounts i have read). making cuts with a 260 pound frame could wreak havoc on his ankles, and i would guess that it would affect his ability stay quick through the fourth quarter. there is also the possibility that brown being the starter might not sit too well with clay, and the badgers don't need any more internal dissent (same could be said for scherer). it is a question mark, if not then the journal-sentinal, badger beat and the rest of the becky chatterboxes would not be spending so much time arguing about it.

as for the 6-6, well i don't believe in typing "IMO," because this is an internet message board and that my words here are just my "honest opinion" should be taken for granted, so i guess we will see how their schedule plays out. there could be 7 wins, but i think that cal state university fresno will surprise the badgers and the only "sure" wins are wofford, NIU and purdue (i think that indiana has a very underrated defense and could surprise, and traveling to hawai'i could lead to problems).

 

[wait!what?]

The WI prattle only leads others to think that gopher fans consider beating WI our football acme. oooooooooohhhh, what about Purdue.......... Let's beat OSU and then we can go from there.

 

[KD6-3.7]

The WI prattle only leads others to think that gopher fans consider beating WI our football acme. oooooooooohhhh, what about Purdue.......... Let's beat OSU and then we can go from there.

thanks for that fellow gopher fan.

 

[badgerman27]

Just to give you folks a view from our side of the fence.

I think we'll have an up and down year. There are plenty of kids on defense having to make their first real contribution. They have given up some big plays in practice, and probably will during the year as well.

It looks like Tolzien will start at QB. He is a 4th yr Jr. Very bright kid, knows the offense better than the other QBs. Throws a good ball. He'll be another in the UW line of game managers. RS freshman Phillips will probably play some, and is a great athlete, but has struggled with ball security. Too many turnovers in the passing game. I think they'll have a spread option package to use with him. Really dangerous on the corner.

We're loaded at RB. Can't really say much else.

Good depth and playmaking ability at WR & TE

The OL has missed 3 starters for most of fall camp. They think everyone will be back for the first game, but not certain. Carimi should be ready to practice next week, as well as Moffitt. Nagy is the real unknown. He was hurt in a scooter accident, and has been hampered with wrist and heel injuries.

The real question is on defense. Better depth on the DL than last year, but a real lack of experience. Guys are capable, and have ability, but are they ready to make an impact yet? We're going to have good DEs, but can the DT's play? They have been gashed quite a bit in the run game in practice.

The same at LB. 2 guys with experience, and then 4-5 with plenty of ability, but really green. A couple of freshmen and rs freshmen have really played well in fall camp.

1 very good CB, 1 who is improving, and then 3 kids who have plenty of talent, but really haven't played yet.

Same at S. The starters look good. The #2's have looked good in practice, but have only played special teams in an actual game.

My guess would be: 6 wins if things just don't come together, and maybe 9 wins if all of the question marks work out the right way. Realistic outlook is 7-8 wins. The program is still 1 year away from contending again. 2010 & 2011 look to be years where we'll be competing for a BCS bid.

 

[froggopher]

Wisconsin

I predict no wins at all for bucky's boys and girls!

Go gophers!!