Opposing defenses.

[Schnoodler]

I thought I'd do a little study and analyze the strength of the defenses we faced and how well we compared. I knew our SOS was significantly tougher than any other team in the Big Ten but it was tough to quantify what that meant. So I took a peak and compiled some numbers.

I'm not sure what conclusions to draw from this outside of what we already knew. We aren't very good offensively. Maybe though the numbers show, we don't suck quite as much as we thought, although I don't know what comfort you can get from an improved level of suckitude. I just wanted to get a better view of what it means to have the 18th toughest sangarin SOS and what impact that might have on our stat numbers. To really get a clearer view, this same thing would need to be done with all big ten teams and get some +/- numbers for comparison. But not today.

Now I'm not saying our offense didn't suck. So let's be clear on that before we begin this merry journey. But it is interesting that four of the teams we played are in the top 10 defenses in pts/game. PSU (4), OSU (5), Air Force (8), Iowa (10). Of course we didn't hurt anybody's numbers any except AF.

Average points against

Syracuse..............82....27.9....23
Air Force...............8.....15.3....20
California...............46....22.9... 21
Northwestern.........49.....23.3...35
Wisconsin..............51.....23.5...28
Purdue..................92......29.1...35
PSU......................4.......11.8....0
OSU.....................5........12.2....7
Michigan State.......61.......25.1....42
Illinois...................84.......28.1....32
Iowa....................10.......15.5.....0

Teams we did not play

Michigan..............79....27.5
Indiana................94....29.5
Minnesota............58.....24.6

On the rushing side (yds/gm) it's also interesting. The first number is the ranking of the team based on rush yd/gm, the second the actual rush yd/gm, the third the net yardage the gophers had against each team.

Syracuse.........14th.......101.8....112
Air Force..........48th......136.1....108
California..........25th.....112.6......37
Northwestern....34th.....123.5.....166
Wisconsin.........12th.....97.2.......57
Purdue.............93rd.....173.4.....207
PSU................10th.....93.9........37
OSU................5th......83.4.......123
MSU...............26th.....112.8......89
Illinois.............68th.....147.3......50
Iowa...............32.......122.0......48

Big Ten teams we didn't play

Michigan....91....171.9
Indiana......78....159.1
Minnesota...66....146.7

The average rushing yards per game from our opponents defensive stats = 118.54

Our average rushing yards per game. = 97.6
for reference a team with an average of 118.54 would have ranked 96th right behind Arizona State. We ranked 111.


Passing defenses

Syracuse..........82.....235.2....248
Air Force...........2......148.7....219
California..........108....257.0...233
Northwestern....66.....220.8...186
Wisconsin.........68.....222.0...271
Purdue.............42.....203.2...74
PSU.................19.....183.2...101
OSU.................16.....179.1...163
MSU.................102...251.6...416
Illinois...............107...254.8...221
Iowa.................8......164.7...153

Big Ten teams we didn't play

Michigan...67....221.4
Indiana.....91....241.9
Minnesota..59....217.6

The average passing yds/gm allowed = 210.9. The Gophers avg passing yds/gm = 198.3 For reference a team averaging 210.9 yards/gm would be the 69th right after TCU. We ranked 84th.

Other interesting numbers. Our average yard loss to sack per game = 20.2

Avg QB ratings
Syracuse........112...152.1
Air Force........23....110.3
California........66....129.4
Northwestern...54....126.5
Wisconsin........77....132.7
Purdue............33.....115.4
PSU................12.....104.1
OSU................7.......96.9
MSU................96....139.2
Illinois..............100....141.9
Iowa................5.......91.9

Big Ten teams we didn't play

Michigan....75....131.8
Indiana......92....138.4
Minnesota...49....122.5

Avg QB rating against opponents = 121.85 Gophers team QB Rating = 112.9
For reference the hypothetical average team QB rating 0f 121.85 would be = 84th right after Western Michigan. Our rating of 112.9 was 101st.

 

[Clyde Tester]

Interesting stats. I do have one quick thought though. In many cases, we helped the opposing defense look stronger than they might be. In other words, you said that four of the defense we played are in the top ten nationally for points-allowed - it's chicken/egg - did we do poorly because they are so good, or are their stats inflated in-part thanks to the Gopher game?

Good post here though - loving fact-based intelligent discussion!!!

 

[Schnoodler]

Possibly in the pts totals. a goose egg can really help there, but otherwise probably not significantly. We are only 1/12 of the total impact. And I think in most cases when we have done poorly in a game we're not so far off the average, so no I don't think we're creating skewed stats.

The one thing I found interesting is that we seemed to hold our own or even exceed the averages except when we played a highly ranked defense. In other words it's not like we performed X% below the average across the board. Mostly we were close to or above except against great defenses. I guess I'd expect to see a little more consistency like being down 20% to every team. But that wasn't the case.

 

[GVBadger]

Points is tough to use, especially on a per game basis. For example in the Wisconsin game, the Gophers defense scored a touchdown, so the points the Gophers offense scored against the Badgers defense was actually 21 and not 28. That puts them below the Wisconsin average instead of above. Same with the Purdue game and the Air Force game. The blocked field goal and the defensive touchdown both put the offensive totals below the average those teams gave up.

Points is not the best statistic to measure the success of the offense unless you account for those factors.

 

[Schnoodler]

Isn't that true for every team.