(Edited from prev.)
PUR currently -16.5 (-19.5 Torvik) and expected score 83-64.
Garcia needs to play at 100% if MN wants a chance to win at PUR. Duh. Purdue does a lot of things very well, and I've spent the week looking for chinks in the armor. The bad news for MN is that PUR is #1 in BTN conf. in the following metrics:
--Offensive rebounding (Edey effect)
--Free Throw Rate, getting to the line 44.1% (Edey effect)
--Shot blocks (5.8/game) (Edey effect)
--Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (128.4!) (PUR makes 3's)
--Effective FG % (55.4%)
--TGame Rating, based on multiple analytics (93.4 average, w/o NEB loss ave. 96.4) MN BEST game of the year vs MSU had a TGameRating of 90.
--After watching Edey post low all season, I can anecdotally assure everyone out there that he has AT LEAST five 3-sec lane violations not called every game.
In efforts to build some hope for MN, the following relates to the Boilers closest games, losses, and recent form.
--Purdue is the worst team in BTN at forcing turnovers, so MN shouldn't turn it over, and each possession is precious.
--MN offense seems to be at its best playing faster than the TempoRating indicates (#223 in college bb). Perhaps MN will move the ball in efforts to take Edey out of the game. Accept a few turnovers if that's the case.
--In PUR 5 close games and losses (NW, ALA, ILL, NEB, NW) those opponents shot 48% from behind the arc (65-135).
--NEB was 14-23 (61%) from 3, EFG% 63.2%, and NW EFG%=68.2%.
--In Purdue's last 7 games, they have jacked 138 3's while shooting 37% which is good, but Wisconsin and Rutgers held them to 3-11, 5-19 respectively. In that span of last 7 games, MN has only allowed 117 threes with teams making 35%.
--MN has a conf. TGame Rating average of 70, but in the last 4 games have an 87.5 rating, which approaches PUR season ave of 93.4.
--PUR defense has shown they can take nights off, and they allow a VERY high opponent FG% near the basket-63% for the season. (MN 52.5% allowed in that category).
--MN is solid shooting and defending 2PFGs, and the Gopher EFG% (54.4%), EFG%D (47.6%) are superior for their #82 TRank as a team.
--Will Jack "Thor" Wilson be able to get meaningful minutes bodying up w/Edey, and will the BTN refs allow such a thing? I won't hold my breath on that.
--Despite seemingly overwhelming odds against MN in this game, Gopher game plan can't be "business as usual". MN has to do something to throw off the scouting report. Fairleigh Dickinson was able to do it with a smaller lineup holding PUR to 58 pts. last March. Intangible also is PUR seems to always choke.
--I'm doubt that PUR is as physically tough as MN, and if it comes down to a rock fight it favors the Gophers. Smith/Jones/Loyer (aka "Thomas the Tank Engine") aren't that physical, more spot shooters.
MN needs to play the game of the year on both sides of the ball for 40 minutes, unless PUR plays worse than their previous 8 games. Study films of NW/NEB games, make shots, and push Edey out.
Think Christmas Day, 2020 beating #4 Iowa, or Feb. 26, 2013 taking down #1 Indiana.
Go Gophers!