Minnesota is trending up and Iowa is trending down. Since Iowa's peak stretch of wins RUT/NEB/MN, their conference play has been very sketchy.
In Iowa's last 5 games (2-3), teams are shooting 43.1% from behind the arc against them, while Iowa has shot 31.2%. PSU/OSU/MD shredded Iowa and the Hawkeye's defensive stats have consistently below average/poor all season.
Iowa allows a lot of 3PFG attempts (36.3% of possessions), and MN takes a lot of 3's (40% of poss.). Plus-plus for MN as we will likely get good looks. Conversely, Iowa does not take 3's-only 30.1%(#325 in college bb), and MN limits teams to only 29.1% of shots from 3 (#14). Minus-minus for Iowa! That is probably why Iowa took 52 2PFG attempts (!) in the last meeting, making 32 of them! (MN just couldn't hit anything from distance 5-29, while Iowa was 3-13 from 3 last mtg.)
Iowa shoots FTs very well, VERY well at a team 80.5% tops in BTN. In their recent loss to PSU, Iowa was limited to only 10 FT attempts, while PSU shot 31 FTs. In Iowa's loss to WISC, the Badgers shot 35 FTs to Iowa's 16 attempts. In addition to picking up fouls, Iowa gave up the close 2's/free points at the line, opened up opposing mid-range and 3's which was the recipe for those losses.
Iowa has shown all year they can score, with #22 ADJOffEff in the country. However, McCaffrey clearly doesn't stress defending as they are mediocre #149 giving up nearly 50% of FG attempts within 15 feet of the basket. This year-long trend isn't going to change, ex: MN made 23 of 29 2PFG last meeting. MN is the best 2PFG shooting team in the conference (54.3%) and needs to pound the ball in, collect fouls, and clear open the perimeter shooters.
Iowa plays the fastest tempo in the BTN, while MN is 9th in category. Not saying we should get into a track meet, but the Gophers seem to have their best scoring when opportunistically moving the ball up court. Iowa is the worst offensive rebounding team in conf, so the chances to run will probably present themselves.
Iowa has a thin bench with 7 players chewing up almost all the minutes. If they foul, it matters. MN is 9 deep and defends much better on those fresh legs. Very much agree with prev. posts that MN needs to limit the number of FG attempts by Iowa and keep the score in the 70 range for the best chance to grab a road win. For what its worth, MN is the #1 team in the nation for covering the pt. spread.
With a solid team effort and bench production (Ihnen, JOJ need Brandon Johnson moments) this can be a methodical victory and I look forward most to coach McCaffreyBoeheim will whining in the post game pressor.
