Not a good scenario for Minnesota or Illinois

[Gold Vision]

What's magical about 35? What is my "word" that I'm standing behind? That with a loss to Illinois Minnesota's RPI could be worse than 30? That there are reasons Minnesota's RPI could fall further after a loss to Illinois this coming week than it did to Nebraska last week?

"Let's say the Gophers puke against Illinois... and let's say their RPI falls to ~38 or so. Middle Tennessee or Minnesota - who would you select if you could have only one?"

You're right, you said 38, not 35.

 

[Dano564]

Even ignoring the SOS (75% of RPI), I think your .004 is too low.

Current Win% of .6387 becomes .6129.. a difference of 0.258. Multiply that by 25% and you get to .0064.

But, then you'll also see the SOS go down...

Gophers currently:

30-11 = 0.6452 winning percentage
SOS = 0.6108
Opponents record is a combined 579-369 right now (0.6108 winning percentage).

Current RPI of 0.6107


If we lose to Illinois, our SOS changes to:
SOS W-L = 600-380
SOS = 0.6122
The SOS component will improve by playing Illinois. (This is 50% of RPI)

Our record would be 20-12. Winning pct of 0.6250 (25% of RPI)


Take the SOS of 0.6122 weighted for 50%
Take winning percentage of 0.6250 weighted for 25%
Take Opponents SOS which is currently at 0.5761. This will improve slightly to around 0.5767. Weight that at 25%

That provides an RPI of 0.6065

Before loss to Illinois: 0.6107. After loss to Illinois 0.6065. Difference of .0042

 

[Gopher Warrior]

Gophers currently:

30-11 = 0.6452 winning percentage

Our record would be 20-12. Winning pct of 0.6250 (25% of RPI)

Thanks for laying that out... I think the SOS becomes a lot more involved and will decline because many Gopher opponents are about to pick up a loss. Their SOS should fall a bit this week (.003+? I struggle projecting this...)

As for the winning percentage -- my numbers adjust for the site of the game. If Minnesota loses, I have them going from a record of 15.2 wins & 8.6 losses to 15.2-9.6... at a 25% weighting, that's a drop of .0064.

What's your reason for using their actual win-loss record in calculating their RPI?

 

[supadupafly]

We will beat Illinois on Thursday.

THIS

 

[Moses87]

I think there's a chance that the Illini - Minnesota game becomes a play in game. Given its essentially a home game for them, I don't see us winning. Get your NIT tickets while their hot!

 

[XMan]

I think there's a chance that the Illini - Minnesota game becomes a play in game. Given its essentially a home game for them, I don't see us winning. Get your NIT tickets while their hot!

You should do that Moses so you can go and watch what ever team it is that you support because it sure isn't the gophers.

 

[GameDay]

We will beat Illinois on Thursday.

I love the confidence! But after the way the gophers have looked, can you REALLY say that? Or is this just a hopeful statement more than anything?

 

[XMan]

I love the confidence! But after the way the gophers have looked, can you REALLY say that? Or is this just a hopeful statement more than anything?

Nope. We will win this game. The gophers played well in the post season last year. Are done with true road games. They will pull this together and win.

 

[Dano564]

Thanks for laying that out... I think the SOS becomes a lot more involved and will decline because many Gopher opponents are about to pick up a loss. Their SOS should fall a bit this week (.003+? I struggle projecting this...)

As for the winning percentage -- my numbers adjust for the site of the game. If Minnesota loses, I have them going from a record of 15.2 wins & 8.6 losses to 15.2-9.6... at a 25% weighting, that's a drop of .0064.

What's your reason for using their actual win-loss record in calculating their RPI?

I'm backwards compiling the numbers from a couple different RPI websites. None of them are exactly correct but they closely correspond to what most major sites have. I understand the weighting for the home and road, but I haven't backwards compiled it for that sake.

Regarding the fact many teams we faced will lose... that's true. As the season goes on, RPI's will always trend towards 0.500 as a whole because there is always a winner and a loser. At best you can hope that some of your opponents you played twice (Indiana) beat teams you only played once. (Ohio St, Purdue, or Michigan).

 

[Gopher Warrior]

Clarification on Illinois at the UC. They played Auburn there, which is being counted as a home game for RPI purposes.

The games in the BTT will neutral site games for RPI purposes.

The difference is that Illinois has a history of scheduling games in Chicago over the years.. the NCAA looks at who controls the tickets, who hires the refs, is it included in the season ticket package, etc... so even though Chicago is far away from campus, the game with Auburn is a "home game" for RPI purposes.