Not a good scenario for Minnesota or Illinois

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The winner will play a team locked into a #1 NCAA seed, whose only motivation will be to exact some revenge. Ouch.
 



gophersfan said:
Nope. Purdue is the 7 seed, Illinois is the 8 seed and Minnesota is the 9 seed.
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Everyone says no but I have this fear that it looks like an NCAA play in game. I actually like our chances of beating Illinois. If we win that game, I'm not worried about anything else.
 

bga1 said:
Everyone says no but I have this fear that it looks like an NCAA play in game. I actually like our chances of beating Illinois. If we win that game, I'm not worried about anything else.
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Our RPI is still 22 (according to ESPN). No way this is a play in game for us. Illinois, on the other hand, might have to beat us in order to make the tourney.
 


WanderingGopher said:
Our RPI is still 22 (according to ESPN). No way this is a play in game for us. Illinois, on the other hand, might have to beat us in order to make the tourney.
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When we lose to Illinois, we'll have an RPI of 30 by Sunday night. Many teams will pass Minnesota...It's very tightly bunched from 20-35.

I predict we'll be in the last 4 in by Thursday and Last 4 out by Sunday.
 

Moses87 said:
When we lose to Illinois, we'll have an RPI of 30 by Sunday night.
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Could be quite a bit worse than that.

I think if a team like Minnesota was kept out a lot of people would praise it. Might be taken as a sign that when the NCAA claims the RPI is just one of many tools available, they may actually mean it. So many variables though...
 

Moses87 said:
When we lose to Illinois, we'll have an RPI of 30 by Sunday night. Many teams will pass Minnesota...It's very tightly bunched from 20-35.

I predict we'll be in the last 4 in by Thursday and Last 4 out by Sunday.
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Really? Even when we lost to Nebraska AND Purdue in 1 week we only dropped about 4 or 5 places. Drop 10 by losing to #41 Il on neutral court? No way. Esp since others will lose too.

And even if we did, when's the last time a #30 RPI from a major conf didn't make the tourney? And the tourney's 4 teams bigger than it used to be.

Look, I'm not saying we deserve it based on the *&^!#*&^!#*&^!#*&^!#ty way our season ended, but we still have more top 50 wins than almost anyone around us in the RPI and statistically there's virtually no way we fall short of the tourney. Just get ready for an 11 seed and early exit.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
Could be quite a bit worse than that.

I think if a team like Minnesota was kept out a lot of people would praise it. Might be taken as a sign that when the NCAA claims the RPI is just one of many tools available, they may actually mean it. So many variables though...
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With their road/neutral record, quality wins, and RPI, why would anyone praise it? They have everything but the eye test.
 



If we lose to Illinois and don't get in, I'd be shocked.

I wouldn't be upset, because we've made our bed and no matter what happens, the fate we get we deserve.

But few teams in or around the bubble have our resume, and as From The Barn always says, the Selection Committee has to filed 68 teams. And this year, it will be a stretch to find resumes better than ours with our selection peer set.

Go Gophers!!
 

Gopher Warrior said:
Could be quite a bit worse than that.

I think if a team like Minnesota was kept out a lot of people would praise it. Might be taken as a sign that when the NCAA claims the RPI is just one of many tools available, they may actually mean it. So many variables though...
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No way that it drops anywhere near 30. Illinois isn't anything close to a bad loss. I would say 25.
 

mcal24 said:
No way that it drops anywhere near 30. Illinois isn't anything close to a bad loss. I would say 25.
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you're not taking into consideration all the teams in the 30's now who will get 2 or 3 wins in their conf tourney's.
 

Minnesota now 29 in the Sagarin index, which I know the committee also looks at. It has a better math algorithm than the RPI but has only served as a secondary index officially because of its consideration of margin of victory, which is somewhat politically incorrect.

If the Gophs lose to Illinois by a moderate or large margin and fall into the 30's in Sagarin, look out. If the committee wishes to validate the eye test, they could do so on the basis of this or other indexes along with the team's downward trend.

Still have to characterize it as unlikely, however, that the Gophs fail to get a bid. Just wanted to submit that it's not impossible.
 



Gopher Warrior said:
Could be quite a bit worse than that.

I think if a team like Minnesota was kept out a lot of people would praise it. Might be taken as a sign that when the NCAA claims the RPI is just one of many tools available, they may actually mean it. So many variables though...
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And so would a few GH posters apparently. How's our RPI going to fall further for losing to Illinois than Nebraska? Makes no sense.
 

howeda7 said:
And so would a few GH posters apparently. How's our RPI going to fall further for losing to Illinois than Nebraska? Makes no sense.
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It's really unbelievable. I just don't get people's mindsets or motives on this board.
 

Gold Vision said:
It's really unbelievable. I just don't get people's mindsets or motives on this board.
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Maybe Tubby can pull the anti-Seth Greenburg and go around to every ESPN outlet next Monday saying 'aw shucks we didn't deserve our bid. We blow.' It will endear him to Minnesota fans forever. Ask TK.
 

Gold Vision said:
With their road/neutral record, quality wins, and RPI, why would anyone praise it? They have everything but the eye test.
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Yes. I'm not sure how you could justify us not getting in, but a team like Middle Tennessee getting in. We have more quality wins, a tougher schedule, etc, etc. Doesn't mean it can't happen, but if it somehow did, I would be very confused (and probably way more upset than I should be, given our collapse).
 

howeda7 said:
How's our RPI going to fall further for losing to Illinois than Nebraska? Makes no sense.
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The RPI makes no sense.

However, there are several reasons why Minnesota's RPI could fall further losing to Illinois this coming week than Nebraska this week.
 



Since GW always loves to bet people let's see if he stands behind his word. If Gophs lose to Illinois we will set our RPI next Sunday night. 35 RPI or better I win. 36 or worse and you win. What's the bet?
 

WilliamsArenaGuy said:
And of course you don't name even one here.
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I'll PM you with some reasons.

Stan said:
Since GW always loves to bet people let's see if he stands behind his word. If Gophs lose to Illinois we will set our RPI next Sunday night. 35 RPI or better I win. 36 or worse and you win. What's the bet?
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What's magical about 35? What is my "word" that I'm standing behind? That with a loss to Illinois Minnesota's RPI could be worse than 30? That there are reasons Minnesota's RPI could fall further after a loss to Illinois this coming week than it did to Nebraska last week?

I think they're at about 24 now... so they dropped what, 4, after the Nebraska loss?

I'll give you 6 spots... 1-30, you win. 31+ I win. Whatever you'd like to wager (feel free to PM with your offerings).
 

WilliamsArenaGuy said:
And of course you don't name even one here.
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1)Teams behind us will have a chance to win 2 or 3 games against quality competition and boost their resume's much more in a short period of time.

2)Illinois will pass us by beating us on a neutral court.

I believe the Gophers will wind up in the 34-36 range. But some of other polls used by the committee will have us much lower.
 

Why are your reasons for a larger RPI drop so secretive?
 

gall0249 said:
Why are your reasons for a larger RPI drop so secretive?
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They're not. It's just when a thread is a bunch of people saying, "no way that's impossible", "wah wah you have crazy motives", etc. it lessens my mood to share thoughts and knowledge. Also because the RPI is dumb and while I understand it, I don't think or talk about it in detail and would do a horrible job (as I probably just did with WilliamsArenaGuy in a PM) of explaining my thoughts to others.

Feel free to PM or email with any questions, though!

The RPI is dumb and theoretically ridiculously simple. When you get into the calculations and projecting/forecasting it's not so straightforward.

A couple of key things to keep in mind:

+ Wins and losses in the RPI world aren't the same as they are in the real world. The Gophers have a record of 15.2-8.6.

+ Minnesota's "SOS components" are very high compared to their peers (peers in this case meaning those with RPI's in the ballpark we're concerned with) and therefore the conference tourney will be especially dilutive (more so than to their peers) to the Gophers' RPI.
 

We will beat Illinois on Thursday.
 

Gophers RPI is around 22-24 right now. 0.6107

If they lose, that number goes down roughly 0.004 to about 0.6067
If no other teams are changing, that would move the Gophers to #28 with Creighton, VCU, and Saint Louis passing them.

Teams below us that with one win could arise and pass us winning one game (and never losing again which makes it tough), or winning 2 and then losing one to increase 0.004 are:

NC State
Middle Tennessee
Saint Mary's College
UCLA
San Diego State
Oklahoma

Two of those are done, and can't move up any further. (MTSU and Saint Mary's)

That leaves four of them who can then pass by the Gophers so the Gophers would then be around #32.
That's provided these other teams are getting the same value for wins and not moving closer to the average.
If I had to bet, Gophers don't drop below #30 with a loss because it's doubtful each of those would win one more game than they lose from here on out.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
I'll PM you with some reasons.



What's magical about 35? What is my "word" that I'm standing behind? That with a loss to Illinois Minnesota's RPI could be worse than 30? That there are reasons Minnesota's RPI could fall further after a loss to Illinois this coming week than it did to Nebraska last week?

I think they're at about 24 now... so they dropped what, 4, after the Nebraska loss?

I'll give you 6 spots... 1-30, you win. 31+ I win. Whatever you'd like to wager (feel free to PM with your offerings).
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It's the RPI, not the Colonel's Secret Recipe. Can't you just post it on latenighthoopscoops.com or is that only for the latest on Trevor Mbakwe?
 

Face The Facts said:
Gophers RPI is around 22-24 right now. 0.6107

If they lose, that number goes down roughly 0.004 to about 0.6067
If no other teams are changing, that would move the Gophers to #28 with Creighton, VCU, and Saint Louis passing them.
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Even ignoring the SOS (75% of RPI), I think your .004 is too low.

Current Win% of .6387 becomes .6129.. a difference of 0.258. Multiply that by 25% and you get to .0064.

But, then you'll also see the SOS go down...
 

XMan said:
We will beat Illinois on Thursday.
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In typical Gopher fashion, I expect them to run the table over the weekend and win the tourney, elevating themselves to a 5 or 6 seed...before losing to Bucknell in the first round.
 

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