Non-conference is now over, how many total B10 Ws do we end up with?

What say you Holers?

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PMWinSTP said:
.500 in conference and 19 wins doesn't get Gophs in the tournament?
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Maybe not. Most years yes. There are a lot of variables in that, most importantly who those ten wins come against. The 10-10 scenario is where the crappy non conference schedule could burn them.
 

What a change of attitude from this group! I was told that I was a CBJ burner acct. when I said 10 wins in conf. First, the Big Ten is no worse than any other power conference. College bb in general is very even talent-wise. No team is dominant, and Purdue has a long history of choking, so they may not even win the conference. The whole key to getting in the NCAA tournament is to get the 10 win ceiling, AND advance in the conf tourney in the HOME city!
 

Holy Man said:
Maybe not. Most years yes. There are a lot of variables in that, most importantly who those ten wins come against. The 10-10 scenario is where the crappy non conference schedule could burn them.
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haven't the gophers been passed up by the tourney at 10-8 in the past?
 

GopherOhana said:
haven't the gophers been passed up by the tourney at 10-8 in the past?
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Long time ago in the Clem years. That’s ancient history.

I think Nebraska was left out with an 11-7 record. Unbalanced schedule and a poor preseason schedule and performance doomed them. Most likely reason to be left out from the bubble is out of conference SOS.
 


Holy Man said:
Long time ago in the Clem years. That’s ancient history.

I think Nebraska was left out with an 11-7 record. Unbalanced schedule and a poor preseason schedule and performance doomed them. Most likely reason to be left out from the bubble is out of conference SOS.
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2017-18

Nebraska was 13-5 in Big Ten and did not get at-large bid. 22-11 overall. My recollection was they weren’t even close to deserving a bid. Overall quality of their 22 wins was putrid.
 

Gophers regular season conference record the years they made NCAA Tournament (circa 1982):

1981-82: 14-4
1988-89: 9-9
1989-90: 11-7
1993-94: 10-8
1994-95: 10-8
1996-97: 16-2
1998-99: 8-8
2004-05: 10-6
2008-09: 9-9
2009-10: 9-9
2012-13: 8-10
2016-17: 11-7
2018-19: 9-11

Others (Miscellaneous)
1992-93 (NIT champs): 9-9
1995-96: 10-8
1997-98 (NIT champs): 6-10
2013-14 (NIT champs): 8-10

Jogging my memory of projecting the fields, I think the Gophers got screwed in 1993, but not 1996. ‘93 team had a tournament worthy resume that season.
 
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I'm not buying it yet. We have the softest non conference schedule in the nation. We haven't looked particularly good against any of the teams that aren't god awful. One quality home win against what is looking like a bottom two or three team in the Big Ten is all we've really mustered thus far. I'm going with 4 Big Ten wins. Hope it's more but I haven't seen anything that tells me that we're going to be competitive in the Big Ten every game
 
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PMWinSTP said:
If so, what was their overall record?
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19-13. i think the ncaa took a 9-9 team over the gophers

but as holy man typed, it was a long time ago.

with a NC SOS 362 and now 9 bigten teams worse than 50 on kenpom, could the gophers even get enough quality wins for the tourney?
 

GopherOhana said:
19-13. i think the ncaa took a 9-9 team over the gophers

but as holy man typed, it was a long time ago.

with a NC SOS 362 and now 9 bigten teams worse than 50 on kenpom, could the gophers even get enough quality wins for the tourney?
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Yeah hard to see them passing up a 19 win B1G team that went ,500 in conference now. Still best or second best conference in a down year.
 
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SelectionSunday said:
Gophers regular season conference record the years they made NCAA Tournament (circa 1982):

1981-82: 14-4
1988-89: 9-9
1989-90: 11-7
1993-94: 10-8
1994-95: 10-8
1996-97: 16-2
1998-99: 8-8
2004-05: 10-6
2008-09: 9-9
2009-10: 9-9
2012-13: 8-10
2016-17: 11-7
2018-19: 9-11

Others (Miscellaneous)
1992-93 (NIT champs): 9-9
1995-96: 10-8
1997-98 (NIT champs): 6-10
2013-14 (NIT champs): 8-10

Jogging my memory of projecting the fields, I think the Gophers got screwed in 1993, but not 1996. ‘93 team had a tournament worthy resume that season.
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My memory is foggy but I seem to remember in 93 Clem saying he would need to “sell his soul for a star” because the thinking was that someone, maybe Purdue and Glenn Robinson, got in over us because of a high profile player. The rest is history.
 

PMWinSTP said:
Yeah hard to see them passing up a 19 win B1G team that went ,500 in conference now. Still best or second best conference in a down year.
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Not a chance if the numbers don’t work. ACC and SEC have both had down years and really low numbers of teams get in in recent years. In a down year and a crappy non conference schedule, it is not only believable but likely.
 





PMWinSTP said:
Yeah hard to see them passing up a 19 win B1G team that went ,500 in conference now. Still best or second best conference in a down year.
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We've grown accustomed the Big Ten being a pretty strong conference for most of the last 10 or 15 years, where we're putting in 7+ teams every year, and getting to .500 in conference gets you a reasonable to good chance of making the tournament, but that's not a given for every major conference every year.

Over the same time span where the Big Ten is putting in 7 teams every year, the Pac-12 usually gets about 4. In Tubby Smith's final win as Minnesota's head coach, we played a 6 seed UCLA. That UCLA team won the Pac-12 outright with a 13-5 conference record. The Washington team we played in the NIT Final Four in 2012 won the Pac-12 outright at 14-4 and obviously didn't make the tournament.

As someone else alluded to earlier, there's a path where the Gophers go winless against Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Ohio State, and Michigan State, and win all our other games, and end up 11-9 in conference, with our best win being...probably @Nebraska or @iowa. Swap losses to @Nebraska and @iowa for home wins against Ohio State and Michigan State, then add in a home win against Northwestern, and I think you get a winning 12-8 conference record (21-10 overall) with 0 Q1 wins going by today's NET rankings.

We're used to the Big Ten being pretty good most years, but this seems to be one of the exceptions. No decent non-conference wins and a down season for the Big Ten could mean going .500 in conference or even a little better and still missing the tournament.
 

2 more than the football team's total season wins.
 

B4 the season started I thought we would get enough W's to make the NIT. Still think that way. I picked 7 and 8 at best and still the same.
 



MNVCGUY said:
Making the NIT would be a really nice step forward for the team coming off of 2 dismal years.
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Going into the year I said Ben would need that to keep his job and I stand by that. With the soft Non-Con they were going to need to be good enough to qualify for the NIT or there is no real way to justify keeping him around. At least for now he is on track for that.
 

Dave H said:
Going into the year I said Ben would need that to keep his job and I stand by that. With the soft Non-Con they were going to need to be good enough to qualify for the NIT or there is no real way to justify keeping him around. At least for now he is on track for that.
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If they make the NIT this year I think it would be tough for even the most adamant detractors of Johnson to not feel he deserves another year. I think there is still potentially a case that could be made for keeping him if the team were to fall short of a post season bid of some kind but it would be a much tougher case to make.

I'm hopeful that the improvement we can clearly see in the roster translates to more success in conference games.
 

MNVCGUY said:
If they make the NIT this year I think it would be tough for even the most adamant detractors of Johnson to not feel he deserves another year. I think there is still potentially a case that could be made for keeping him if the team were to fall short of a post season bid of some kind but it would be a much tougher case to make.

I'm hopeful that the improvement we can clearly see in the roster translates to more success in conference games.
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I would agree with you but I can also understand why people would still not be convinced. The pressure on him next year would be immense
 


1. Caution that a team can perform differently against better teams than against the prior schedule. People are too optimistic.

2. Maybe stand put with the coach regardless until his group of guys, his guys, are another year older or two. Could save the university severance money. Is there an upward projection is what matters.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Making the NIT would be a really nice step forward for the team coming off of 2 dismal years.
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It's been more than two dismal years. We've had four straight losing seasons, four straight years with no postseason, and losing seasons in five of the last six years.

Now, cue some meathead shouting "Why would anyone ever be satisfied with the NIT!?" Well, in our case, for the same reason that a homeless man would be happy to get into a studio apartment.
 

Dave H said:
Going into the year I said Ben would need that to keep his job and I stand by that. With the soft Non-Con they were going to need to be good enough to qualify for the NIT or there is no real way to justify keeping him around. At least for now he is on track for that.
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I agree except the standards for making the NIT have changed. So I put a win total on it. 18 regular season wins or more (9 B1G). That might not be enough to make the NIT, but it would be a big enough jump.
 



TwistingMyMelon said:
Even the projections from the quantitative rating services expect us to win more conference games than that. Torvik has us at 8 Big Ten wins. ESPN's BPI has us at 7.6 conference wins.
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He’s conflicted; his moniker says it all.
Your brain 🧠 only works at 50% capacity, with that badger blood coursing through his veins.
 

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