Non-conference is now over, how many total B10 Ws do we end up with?

What say you Holers?

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Gopher_In_NYC

Gopher_In_NYC

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I cannot list all the options individually, so I bunched some options together, the ones at the bottom and top, as they seem the least likely to me.

I’m going with 9 FWIW = 8 more would be great!

Poll is open till 1/4, I think, the Michigan game.
 


I said 8, coming into the season I said 4ish. Our team looks improved and the Big Ten looks very poor, 500 should be in play.
 





Gophers7633 said:
We go 10-10 in league play we gotta win the BTT to get a bid.
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From Selection Sunday’s thread on the subject (see below). IIRC he predicts 90%+ for the NCAA tournament, so I think your premise might be off -

Please note, I AM NOT PREDICTING THE GOPHERS WILL MAKE THE NCAA TOURNAMENT. I'm simply offering up a path that should safely land the Maroon & Gold in the Madness that is March. This season, I think that (pre-Big Ten Tournament) number is 21.
 






Gopher_In_NYC said:
From Selection Sunday’s thread on the subject (see below). IIRC he predicts 90%+ for the NCAA tournament, so I think your premise might be off -

Please note, that I AM NOT PREDICTING THE GOPHERS WILL MAKE THE NCAA TOURNAMENT. I'm simply offering up a path that should safely land the Maroon & Gold in the Madness that is March. This season, I think that (pre-Big Ten Tournament) number is 21.
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We'll be 19-12 if we finish 10-10. That's not sniffing an at-large bid given our OOC SoS, plus we already have a bad a loss. Plus the B1G is down so going 10-10 won't really mean a whole lot. We could conceivably get to 10 conference wins and have 1 or 2 wins against the field.
 

Gophers7633 said:
We'll be 19-12 if we finish 10-10. That's not sniffing an at-large bid given our OOC SoS, plus we already have a bad a loss. Plus the B1G is down so going 10-10 won't really mean a whole lot. We could conceivably get to 10 conference wins and have 1 or 2 wins against the field.
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You’re correct, my math was mistaken - my mistake.
 
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Before the season started, I thought they could win 7 conference games but I was hoping for 8. I thought that an 18-13 record would put them into the NIT. However, I assumed they would win one of the San Francisco and Missouri games. Now they need to win 9 conference games to achieve that regular season record so that's what I'm hoping for. Before the season started, I thought that winning 9 conference games was pretty unlikely. Now I think that's more likely but maybe still less than 50%.

I don't subscribe to the theory that the conference's quality varies wildly from one year to the next. There are some teams that appear to be down this season but the conference appears to have mostly solid, if unspectacular, teams that won't be pushovers.
 

With the nonconference schedule the way it was it almost makes it impossible to predict any Big Ten outcomes. We will know a bit more a week from now. Anywhere from 5 to 10 wins.
 


Zeppelin Gopher said:
That's my thought- anything worse than 9-11 and I'll be disappointed.
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If we get into that range it will be at least a season where we are playing for something all through February! 9 to 11 wins would be a big move forward- still not where we need to be but at least progress that we can sink our teeth into.
 

TwistingMyMelon said:
Before the season started, I thought they could win 7 conference games but I was hoping for 8. I thought that an 18-13 record would put them into the NIT. However, I assumed they would win one of the San Francisco and Missouri games. Now they need to win 9 conference games to achieve that regular season record so that's what I'm hoping for. Before the season started, I thought that winning 9 conference games was pretty unlikely. Now I think that's more likely but maybe still less than 50%.

I don't subscribe to the theory that the conference's quality varies wildly from one year to the next. There are some teams that appear to be down this season but the conference appears to have mostly solid, if unspectacular, teams that won't be pushovers.
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This is definitely a down year in the B1G. We only have 3 ranked games. That's pretty pathetic. By contrast, we played 10 in 2021, when the league was very good. If we had our 2017 team and roster, we'd finish top 3 at worst.
 

Gophers7633 said:
This is definitely a down year in the B1G. We only have 3 ranked games. That's pretty pathetic. By contrast, we played 10 in 2021, when the league was very good. If we had our 2017 team and roster, we'd finish top 3 at worst.
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I think you meant "teams." Yes, I realize that but I think those who say "The Big Ten is bad!" are practicing the usual meatheaded overreaction. I never thought the Big Ten was as good as some thought when it got 9 teams in NCAA tournament and I don't think it was as bad as some thought when it got only 4 invites (2018).

Why would a conference of this size or stature be significantly better or worse from one year to the next? People who advance this claim are never able to explain that. The recruiting and coaching are fairly stable. The difference between a lower ranked team and a higher quality unranked team is not so much. Every year people see unranked teams beat ranked teams in the NCAA tournament but that recurring phenomena never seems to register for some.
 


TwistingMyMelon said:
I think you meant "teams." Yes, I realize that but I think those who say "The Big Ten is bad!" are practicing the usual meatheaded overreaction. I never thought the Big Ten was as good as some thought when it got 9 teams in NCAA tournament and I don't think it was as bad as some thought when it got only 4 invites (2018).

Why would a conference of this size or stature be significantly better or worse from one year to the next? People who advance this claim are never able to explain that. The recruiting and coaching are fairly stable. The difference between a lower ranked team and a higher quality unranked team is not so much. Every year people see unranked teams beat ranked teams in the NCAA tournament but that recurring phenomena never seems to register for some.
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There are three ranked teams, we only play each of them once. So we have 3 ranked games left this season. The B1G isn't bad, it's just not what it was in 2021 and 2022 or even last year.

Is the bolded part a legit question? Through attrition is the obvious answer. When a team like Michigan loses Dickinson, along with 2 first rounders and doesn't adequately replace them, they're going to be worse. Same with IU. Same with Rutgers. Same with PSU. Same with Iowa. The league currently has 5 teams in the top 50 of the NET. Last year it had 9(and one at 52). So basically half as many good teams. Is that significant? Idk depends on your definition.
 

Gophers7633 said:
Is the bolded part a legit question? Through attrition is the obvious answer.
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You realize that the conference is recruiting new players (both freshmen and transfers) each year, right? Michigan wasn't that great last year with Dickinson (18-16 overall). Michigan might finish about the same this season without him.

Penn State has a new coach and had the high attrition that frequently comes with that these days. Some teams look worse but others (for example: Nebraska, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota) look better.

The struggles that a number of conference teams have had may be temporary while they adjust to new players and lineups.
 


TwistingMyMelon said:
You realize that the conference is recruiting new players (both freshmen and transfers) each year, right? Michigan wasn't that great last year with Dickinson (18-16 overall). Michigan might finish about the same this season without him.

Penn State has a new coach and had the high attrition that frequently comes with that these days. Some teams look worse but others (for example: Nebraska, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota) look better.

The struggles that a number of conference teams have had may be temporary while they adjust to new players and lineups.
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Lmao. No, I didn't realize that.

Did Michigan fill the loss of Dickinson, and their NBA guys with similar level talent? No, that's why they are worse. Did PSU? No, that's why they are way worse. Having a new coach doesn't mean anything in the discussion we are having. They may play better, and if they do, that's detrimental to the rest of the conference because they've been awful OOC. See the OSU game.

There's really no debate about the league being worse(I don't get the need to defend it). It's about the same at the top, but worse in the middle and at the bottom.
 

PMWinSTP said:
.500 in conference and 19 wins doesn't get Gophs in the tournament?
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No, won't even be particularly close given the awful OOC, and how down the league is. Even winning 10 games might only mean beating 1 or 2 tournament caliber teams, which wont be enough.
 

PMWinSTP said:
.500 in conference and 19 wins doesn't get Gophs in the tournament?
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By itself, I don't think so. Now, adding a couple of wins in the Big Ten tournament could do it. Selection Sunday's post said 21 wins probably would be required and that seems about right.
 

We could conceivably finish 12-8 in conference without getting a Q1 win. And pretty close to being able to get to 14 without a Q1 win.
 

I went with 7 in the poll. the last two seasons have me gun shy. this year's team looks better, but they haven't faced many good opponents.

going from 2 wins last year to 7 wins would be an improvement. I think 8 or maybe even 9 is possible, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

I think the key will be road wins. so far the Gophers are 1-1 in the B1G with a home win and a road loss. I suspect they will drop a couple of games at home, so they need to match those with some road wins to have a shot at a better record.
 


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