NET Update post Purdue

[Dano564]

The NCAA NET site updated sometime between 5:00 PM and now.
Gophers are now up to 54! Just one spot behind Nebraska, two behind TCU, and 5 spots behind Penn State.
Penn State defeated Rutgers tonight, so I'd expect that delta to grow, because that's how NET works.
Penn State's KP is 43, so maybe PSU will slide up to that.

Other notables,
Alabama is #55
Indiana is #56
Both right on our heels.

 

[Some guy]

The NET sucks BTw



I don’t need a ranking system to tell me that a team with a better record and a head to head victory is better than another team.


Minnesota > Indiana and penn state

 

[Dano564]

The Penn State NET score is just embarrassing.

They must be the best example of a team who loses close often and when they win they win by large margins.
It's puzzling to have a team with an overall losing record in the area of being "in contention" for a tournament bid.

 

[Some guy]

The Penn State NET score is just embarrassing.

They must be the best example of a team who loses close often and when they win they win by large margins.
It's puzzling to have a team with an overall losing record in the area of being "in contention" for a tournament bid.

When winning becomes less important than how you lose and losing becomes less important than how you win...you know the metric sucks.


Efficiency rankings might be better for predicting future. But it is horrible for evaluating resume.
Getting in isn’t supposed to be a measure of how we think you’d do. It’s supposed to be a measure of what you’ve done.

 

[stocker08]

No worries. Some of the NET fanboys around here tell me that as the season goes on, the rankings will start to even out and make sense.

 

[WorkingMyTailOff]

Can the selection committee choose to ignore the Net rankings in favor of logic?

 

[builtbadgers]

No worries. Some of the NET fanboys around here tell me that as the season goes on, the rankings will start to even out and make sense.

Or the RPI fanboys who do not mind that Kansas is number one among the many horrible mistakes by that moronic tool. Plus that one was voted out by the coaches themselves !

 

[AO54]

It's not just that the net is putting efficiency over winning, it's not properly factoring in Strength of Schedule when calculating those efficiency numbers.

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[GopherJake]

Or the RPI fanboys who do not mind that Kansas is number one among the many horrible mistakes by that moronic tool. Plus that one was voted out by the coaches themselves !

I appreciate your contribution to the board, but this deflection is not a defense to the comment to which you responded.

 

[Some guy]

Or the RPI fanboys who do not mind that Kansas is number one among the many horrible mistakes by that moronic tool. Plus that one was voted out by the coaches themselves !

Everyone: the NeT is a tool the ncaa is using to select teams and it is really bad


Response from Badger guy: the RPI (a tool the ncaa is not using) is really bad

 

[Bad Gopher]

This is the part that makes me the most nervous - and not buying the notion that this team has already punched its ticket. If the selection committee is going to weight NET that heavily...it's the metric that undervalues the Gophers the most. Sagarin has us at 42 by comparison.

 

[Dano564]

Can the selection committee choose to ignore the Net rankings in favor of logic?

I sure hope so.

 

[Dano564]

Or the RPI fanboys who do not mind that Kansas is number one among the many horrible mistakes by that moronic tool. Plus that one was voted out by the coaches themselves !

Seldomly has seeding of the top 16 teams been an issue.
We have polls to help out the committee with that, and in general, that's how the top 16-25 teams were usually seeded.

 

[Urbandale]

Or the RPI fanboys who do not mind that Kansas is number one among the many horrible mistakes by that moronic tool. Plus that one was voted out by the coaches themselves !

You have used this argument many times in support of NET, and it has absolutely nothing to do with the efficacy of a tool. People make decisions all the time that may be good or bad. To my mind, NET has enough ridiculous outliers to cast doubt on its ability to be an effective evaluator of team performance - as do the other tools. I don't believe there is a perfect metric. But NET doesn't seem demonstrably better.

 

[stocker08]

Or the RPI fanboys who do not mind that Kansas is number one among the many horrible mistakes by that moronic tool. Plus that one was voted out by the coaches themselves !

Kansas is in regardless. It's near the cut line where RPI is proving to favor results and NET is proving to be the moronic tool.

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[builtbadgers]

This is the part that makes me the most nervous - and not buying the notion that this team has already punched its ticket. If the selection committee is going to weight NET that heavily...it's the metric that undervalues the Gophers the most. Sagarin has us at 42 by comparison.

The selection committee is going to use several sources of input, NET is one of them. Built within the NET is the efficiency of KENPOM, which does adjust for strength of schedule. They care about who you beat and where. There is not a metric that satisfies every fanbase . Fans love the metric that favors their team and despise the one that does not. They have to use things that take out a bias. Kenpom does this tremendously as it only measures how well you play and who you do it against and where. Oh yeah, the teams that are the highest in kenpom have the most wins ! There is just a anxiety over where the Gophers are and a shared frustration by the idea of a couple teams ranked ahead of us that we are all sure we are better than. Like all of you i think we are better than NCstate, Nebraska and a few others. But do fans think there are a few teams behind us that are better than us ? Most likely fans have not even seen these other teams. Most fans watch their team only and tend towards thinking that we just got unlucky a few times, or the ref missed a call or we would be one of those top 25 teams ! Talked to a coach of a top 10 team last week and the conversation was about what the margin is between teams and we agreed it is pretty damn thin. Everyone has good players and a good or bad three point night can save or sink anyone. Season long excellence of playing well is rewarded with a safe spot in the field. We have now put ourselves in a great spot of making it. The reason it was shaky was playing bad basketball too often.

 

[builtbadgers]

Kansas is in regardless. It's near the cut line where RPI is proving to favor results and NET is proving to be the moronic tool.

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Where is the cut line ? There is not a cut line established for NET, there was not for RPI either. Plus, people that are in the game as a lifetime devotion, like coaches voted for something better. Something not to be decided by hobbyists who only follow their own team with a bias.

 

[Some guy]

KenPom sucks too.


The problem with the efficiency as a metric is it isn’t measuring what is the most important thing. It is measuring something that has a strong correlation with the most important thing.


In KenPom Penn State is 41 despite having a losing record. That’s all you need to know.



Kenpom might be better at predicting the “better” teams.
But to me, it doesn’t matter who the “better” teams are. It matters who the better teams are.

 

[Some guy]

Where is the cut line ? There is not a cut line established for NET, there was not for RPI either. Plus, people that are in the game as a lifetime devotion, like coaches voted for something better. Something not to be decided by hobbyists who only follow their own team with a bias.

Saying RPI isn’t as good as NET is not a defense of NET.

NET sucks. Might be the same or even better than RPI, but it still sucks.

 

[stocker08]

Where is the cut line ? There is not a cut line established for NET, there was not for RPI either. Plus, people that are in the game as a lifetime devotion, like coaches voted for something better. Something not to be decided by hobbyists who only follow their own team with a bias.

Right around in the high 50s is bubble territory. Again...why is PSU so much higher? Why do results not matter much for NET?

Sure....coaches voted for something better and got something far more flawed. Yay.

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[builtbadgers]

Saying RPI isn’t as good as NET is not a defense of NET.

NET sucks. Might be the same or even better than RPI, but it still sucks.

Said nothing is perfect but measuring these things is required and to do so it was determined by the coaches that this was better than RPI and it is better. Where exactly would you or any fan rank the Gophers right now ? Keep in mind how little you see of other teams and therefore know very little about them. The brain thinks highly of what it wants to be true, we are all humans. Bet if all the coaches watched all the film of all the games they would come up with a great top 50, but as you get more towards 50 you will get more variety as those margins are razor thin. Instead of all the bitching why does someone not come up with a solution that all humans will love equally ! There is not one ! People that do it for a living came up with something better. Research how poor RPI works, Research exactly what NET does, now share with me a better idea.

 

[Some guy]

Said nothing is perfect but measuring these things is required and to do so it was determined by the coaches that this was better than RPI and it is better. Where exactly would you or any fan rank the Gophers right now ? Keep in mind how little you see of other teams and therefore know very little about them. The brain thinks highly of what it wants to be true, we are all humans. Bet if all the coaches watched all the film of all the games they would come up with a great top 50, but as you get more towards 50 you will get more variety as those margins are razor thin. Instead of all the bitching why does someone not come up with a solution that all humans will love equally ! There is not one ! People that do it for a living came up with something better. Research how poor RPI works, Research exactly what NET does, now share with me a better idea.

Lol your defense of me saying comparing RPI and Net is a dumb defense of NET is to compare them again.


I never claimed to have a solution. Not my job. NET sucks even if I don’t have a solution

 

[Bad Gopher]

The selection committee is going to use several sources of input, NET is one of them. Built within the NET is the efficiency of KENPOM, which does adjust for strength of schedule. They care about who you beat and where. There is not a metric that satisfies every fanbase . Fans love the metric that favors their team and despise the one that does not. They have to use things that take out a bias. Kenpom does this tremendously as it only measures how well you play and who you do it against and where. Oh yeah, the teams that are the highest in kenpom have the most wins ! There is just a anxiety over where the Gophers are and a shared frustration by the idea of a couple teams ranked ahead of us that we are all sure we are better than. Like all of you i think we are better than NCstate, Nebraska and a few others. But do fans think there are a few teams behind us that are better than us ? Most likely fans have not even seen these other teams. Most fans watch their team only and tend towards thinking that we just got unlucky a few times, or the ref missed a call or we would be one of those top 25 teams ! Talked to a coach of a top 10 team last week and the conversation was about what the margin is between teams and we agreed it is pretty damn thin. Everyone has good players and a good or bad three point night can save or sink anyone. Season long excellence of playing well is rewarded with a safe spot in the field. We have now put ourselves in a great spot of making it. The reason it was shaky was playing bad basketball too often.

It's incredibly thin, especially this year. It reminds me of a few of those snowfalls earlier this season where the gradient drops off the table at the edge of the storm. That's why the Gophs were able to move this many spots this late in the season with one good win...and why they could move down significantly with one bad loss (i.e. a blowout loss to Maryland or even a slight upset in the first round of the BTT).

 

[Some guy]

It's incredibly thin, especially this year. It reminds me of a few of those snowfalls earlier this season where the gradient drops off the table at the edge of the storm. That's why the Gophs were able to move this many spots this late in the season with one good win...and why they could move down significantly with one bad loss (i.e. a blowout loss to Maryland or even a slight upset in the first round of the BTT).

For sure the margin is thin.
With a thin margin I don’t understand why badger guy doesn’t think wins are a good way to measure teams that aren’t that far apart.


For instance:
Random team with 17+ wins > random team with 17+ losses

Nah, let’s just pretend penn state is 41 like ken pom

 

[Sparlimb]

No worries. Some of the NET fanboys around here tell me that as the season goes on, the rankings will start to even out and make sense.

Its true. We just need to get closer to the end of the regular season...

 

[GopherOhana]

Nah, let’s just pretend penn state is 41 like ken pom

The math suggests that, doesn’t it? PSU, per the math models, has played a tougher schedule than the gophers plus add in a one point victory by the gophers at home. PSU might just be a slightly better team than our gophers

Then again, I like sagarin and his math says our gophers are just a little bit better than PSU. Either way, there’s not a large gap between the two teams

 

[Dano564]

The selection committee is going to use several sources of input, NET is one of them. Built within the NET is the efficiency of KENPOM, which does adjust for strength of schedule. They care about who you beat and where. There is not a metric that satisfies every fanbase . Fans love the metric that favors their team and despise the one that does not. They have to use things that take out a bias. Kenpom does this tremendously as it only measures how well you play and who you do it against and where. Oh yeah, the teams that are the highest in kenpom have the most wins ! There is just a anxiety over where the Gophers are and a shared frustration by the idea of a couple teams ranked ahead of us that we are all sure we are better than. Like all of you i think we are better than NCstate, Nebraska and a few others. But do fans think there are a few teams behind us that are better than us ? Most likely fans have not even seen these other teams. Most fans watch their team only and tend towards thinking that we just got unlucky a few times, or the ref missed a call or we would be one of those top 25 teams ! Talked to a coach of a top 10 team last week and the conversation was about what the margin is between teams and we agreed it is pretty damn thin. Everyone has good players and a good or bad three point night can save or sink anyone. Season long excellence of playing well is rewarded with a safe spot in the field. We have now put ourselves in a great spot of making it. The reason it was shaky was playing bad basketball too often.

Ken Pom and NET are almost the same thing.

 

[Gophers_4life]

When winning becomes less important than how you lose and losing becomes less important than how you win...you know the metric sucks.

You need both.

It's simply a matter of finding the correct weighting, for each of the two concepts. Putting zero weighting on close margins of loss or big margins of win, is also stupid. But they shouldn't have equal weighting as the W-L record.

 

[Dano564]

If 39 spots go to Major 6 teams, and they are sorted just by NET or RPI, RPI and NET agree on 36 teams right now.

Here are the differences.

If NET is used these three get in, where on RPI they don't:
Nebraska
Penn State
North Carolina State


If RPI were used instead of NET, those three don't make it, and instead these do:
Arizona State
Seton Hall
Saint John's

 

[Some guy]

The math suggests that, doesn’t it? PSU, per the math models, has played a tougher schedule than the gophers plus add in a one point victory by the gophers at home. PSU might just be a slightly better team than our gophers

Then again, I like sagarin and his math says our gophers are just a little bit better than PSU. Either way, there’s not a large gap between the two teams

Arguments like this is don’t defend net either
I don’t think the gophers are very good.
But the gophers are clearly better than penn state.

I’d probably give more love to mid majors if I created a ranking system because I would value winning games as the number one criteria and SOS number 2.
Margin of victory/defeat would be a distant 3rd in my metric. I would probably use efficiency rather than margin of victory to account for pace of play and not double count.

If you used a system like this, teams like furman and Utah state would probably be higher.
Minnesota, Nebraska, penn state probably lower.

Minnesota should probably be in the 50-70 range IMO
Minnesota should be higher than penn state and Indiana though.