Nebraska Attrition

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Gophergrandpa

Gophergrandpa

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I posted on another string that Fleck's demanding approach with recruits--which chases some off some great athletes, no doubt--might have the long-term effect of keeping more of our highly-rate recruits on board over time. They and their families know exactly what they are buying in to. PJ also seems to recruit very well to "fit" into his system, even if it means "sacrificing" some on a recruits nominal ranking.

A big mystery to me is how Nebraska has in the past years out-recruited Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin (based on 247 ratings), yet fail for the most part to put on the field a product that reflects its recruiting successes. Attached is a chart I ran listing Nebraska's top 15 signed recruits for the 2017 and 2018 classes and where they are now. The attrition at or near the top of Nebraska's classes is remarkable. To me it explains in part why Nebraska doesn't play up to expectations created by its recruiting successes. The passage of time can really decrease or increase the "value"of a recruiting class. Keep them and coach them up = good. Lose many of your top recruits each year = bad.

I haven't done the same analysis for Minnesota's 2017 & 2018 classes, but I think PJ holds on to his top recruits much better than Frost does.
 

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The 2017 class is mostly the product of Mike I think right?

The Nebraska narrative is that many of Mike's players haven't taken to Frost and Frost needs his guys.

The 2018 class though raises other questions (that's a year into frosts tenure right?)

Maybe Frost needs his guys, some coaches are like that.

On the other hand maybe Frost is just that guy who was gifted at sports and struggles to understand everyone else doesn't just go out there and do the thing like he did....
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
The 2017 class is mostly the product of Mike I think right?

The Nebraska narrative is that many of Mike's players haven't taken to Frost and Frost needs his guys.

The 2018 class though raises other questions (that's a year into frosts tenure right?)

Maybe Frost needs his guys, some coaches are like that.

On the other hand maybe Frost is just that guy who was gifted at sports and struggles to understand everyone else doesn't just go out there and do the thing like he did....
Click to expand...

Yes, 2017 was Riley’s last class, but it had some real talent at the top. I think PJ retained and used top talent from the prior regime quite effectively. I don’t know if Frost purged the 2017 class or the top players decamped, but a great recruiting class dropped back to a mediocre one. I’m not so curious about the “why?” of Nebraska attrition as I am about the effect on Frost’s chances for big success. He goes into 2020 with the classes of 2016-20, all of which were or will be highly ranked classes. Yet the value of the 2017 and 2018 classes is already greatly diminished—top talent and nominal experience lost. I guess my point is that the relative ranking of recruiting classes is meaningful as a future indicator for teams that retain top talent, but less meaningful for teams whose top talent drifts away in large numbers. And PJ seems to hold the talent at the top.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
Yes, 2017 was Riley’s last class, but it had some real talent at the top. I think PJ retained and used top talent from the prior regime quite effectively. I don’t know if Frost purged them class or the top players decamped, but a great recruiting class dropped back to a mediocre one. I’m not so curious about the “why?” of Nebraska attrition as I am about the effect of Frost’s chances for success. He goes into 2020 with the classes of 2016-20, all of which were or will be highly ranked classes. Yet the value of the 2017 and 2018 classes is already greatly diminished. I guess my point is that the relative ranking of recruiting classes is meaningful as a future indicator for teams that retain top talent, but less meaningful for teams whose top talent drifts away in large numbers.
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Very true.

It will be inresting if we see Frost continue to struggle to keep guys for more than a couple years... or if he can stabilize things.

Either way, yeah they're not getting much value for the *s they bring in.
 

Happening right now is that Nebraska is losing top in-state high school talent to other Midwestern teams, including Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Notre Dame. They just lost a state best player of the year.
 


Gophergrandpa said:
I posted on another string that Fleck's demanding approach with recruits--which chases some off some great athletes, no doubt--might have the long-term effect of keeping more of our highly-rate recruits on board over time. They and their families know exactly what they are buying in to. PJ also seems to recruit very well to "fit" into his system, even if it means "sacrificing" some on a recruits nominal ranking.

A big mystery to me is how Nebraska has in the past years out-recruited Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin (based on 247 ratings), yet fail for the most part to put on the field a product that reflects its recruiting successes. Attached is a chart I ran listing Nebraska's top 15 signed recruits for the 2017 and 2018 classes and where they are now. The attrition at or near the top of Nebraska's classes is remarkable. To me it explains in part why Nebraska doesn't play up to expectations created by its recruiting successes. The passage of time can really decrease or increase the "value"of a recruiting class. Keep them and coach them up = good. Lose many of your top recruits each year = bad.

I haven't done the same analysis for Minnesota's 2017 & 2018 classes, but I think PJ holds on to his top recruits much better than Frost does.
Click to expand...
The 2017 class was all on Riley, and very very few of those guys that transferred have been difference makers even at lower level programs. A complete bust of a class. The 2018 class was Frost’s first and was also the first year of the early signing day and he had to fill the class with leftovers for the second signing day while also still coaching UCF in their bowl game. Last year was his first full class with being able to take advantage of an early signing day which is when most recruits sign now. I know they redshirted almost all of last years class so will he interesting to see how they contribute this year and the next couple. Time will tell if it was the correct strategy but they elected to save a players
eligibility and take their lumps early. They also made a drastic shift offensively in offense between Riley and Frost from a traditional drop back passing offense to a spread.
 


No team is immune to attrition including the Gophers. Injuries, playing time, medical retirements, not buying into the program, etc...

The difference is that PJ Fleck was able to retain and coach up Kill's/Claeys' key players and form a key part of the Gophers' recent success.

Fleck brought in Morgan and others he was recruiting while at WMU. He recruited to his system with an eye for talent regardless of ranking.

It took two/three years (depending on how you count), but the remaining legacy players bought into his system. His guys like Morgan, a few burned redshirts, and legacy players formed a formidable, united cohesive team.

I didn't see this happening in Nebraska in the transition between Riley and Frost yet.

Frost's third season is coming up. He has a rougher patch without Riley's guys that he lost. Granted, some of them will never work out for one reason or another.

I'm still trying to figure out what Frost's system is or coaching philosophy. He had a triumphant perfect season at UCF. But, he is still a young coach. It became very obvious that he had to revamp his coaching staff.

He is realizing that it's not as easy to turn the Nebraska program around. He is under a lot of pressure. Some of it he brought upon himself throwing players under the bus and other foibles.

But, he is learning. The program needs badly to succeed. We got the message that expectations were tempered lower when the AD said publicly that the game against the Gophers at the end of the season is pivotal.

One program has become a well oiled machine. Another needs more than a tune up job.

Preserving a lot of his recruits and taking his lumps early and a revamped coaching staff may pay dividends. It is an interesting strategy.

Fleck burned some redshirts like Fa'alele's that was pivotal in the winning streak at the end of the 2018 campaign leading up to the 2019 season nine game winning streak. That strategy paid great dividends in the psychological well being of long suffering Gopher fans and in the current recruiting class.

Don't count Scott Frost out yet. We have to see if his strategy works.
 
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Riley was a pretty dynamic coach who was replaced by a pretty dynamic coach.

Dynamic coaches are rarely similar and thus are rarely able to appeal to the same demographic. So Frost probably wasn't able to keep Riley's players.

Now look at our situation:

Claeys has all the personality of a couch potato, while Fleck is a freaking positivity tornado in a bottle! Going from half the team wants to quit on this guy before the bowl game to this guy really, no, I mean REALLY, NO, I MEAN REALLY WANTS US HERE AND THINKS WE CAN DO SOMETHING ELITE!!!! Well, that's a lot easier to sell to a young man.

It's like going from being coached by a Ford Fiesta to being coached by a Lexus with a Quadrophonic Blaupunkt spewing positivity at all times. Damn right I want to play for this guy! He just asked me to run through the wall in front of me and I did it!

Fleck may not be everyone's cup of tea, but for those who believe, that tea might as well be the stuff Captain America was injected with! Cause the players who follow Fleck get the most out of their abilities and the dividends are showing up in the NFL draft!

That's Frost's problem. And that top kid in Nebraska this year? He likes tea!

Go Gophers!
 



As Glen Mason said the Big Ten is perceived as a better conference with a strong Nebraska team in the West Division. Fortunately, I just don't see the Huskers going back to the former level of teams that were basically like Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State etc. They are so far away from those teams and if you want/need a reminder go watch on Youtube some of those games from the 97 team with Frost as QB or the 1984 Orange Bowl game vs Miami. Honestly if you have not done so check it out, you will be shocked at the difference. I see Frost as a great player but a mediocre coach. This is not uncommon at all as great players do not always translate to great coaches. Probably more rare to see a great player become a great coach.

I do pay too much attention to Nebraska. I see Frost as a softy on the sidelines and regarding off the field player discipline say no more, he's let them get away with anything and everything. Saban would never do anything like this. He kicked off the team that kid who argued/pushed with the coach on the sidelines in the National CH a couple years ago. One fan of 'Bama I know from Alabama told me if Saban saw it happen during the game, kid would have been gone at that moment; hit the locker room dude. I don't admire 'Bama but I do admire Saban and his discipline. I just don't see Frost at that level. I do see PJ Fleck at that level. Yes.

Maybe Husker recruits are signing up for the glory days and when they get to Lincoln as a 4 star they see the facilities are not that great and the team is not as advertised. The Roman Empire fell eventually and so have the Huskers.
 

Nebby is in the early stages of 6 decades of suck.
They will poke their head up once in a while, look around, and nope...
 

I remain fascinated by Nebraska. It continues to recruit at a very high level, and that’s the only thing a lot of analysts see. If Nebraska could hold on to all the talent it brings in, I think it could be a very formidable team and, I hate to say this, dominate the West. But with all the attrition of top-ranked recruits, domination is a real up hill battle—maybe a delusion. The Nebraska blogs seem to focus on improving initial recruiting results, get 5*s, etc. But a focus on retention of the good recruits you’ve already brought in might be better. I don’t know how good a coach Frost is—I assume he is pretty good. He’s a helluva recruiter—that’s proven. But he hasn’t got the top recruits to stick with the program. This is where I give PJ the advantage. PJ somehow retains the talent. He is building a sustainable team, with ever-increasing, quality depth, that can overcome injuries and mild attrition.
 

The Gophers are running a clean program with high standards. PJ Fleck didn't waste anytime kicking a couple of players off the team for public drunkenness related issues once the charges were substantiated. For him, there are clear boundaries.
 



Gophergrandpa said:
I posted on another string that Fleck's demanding approach with recruits--which chases some off some great athletes, no doubt--might have the long-term effect of keeping more of our highly-rate recruits on board over time. They and their families know exactly what they are buying in to. PJ also seems to recruit very well to "fit" into his system, even if it means "sacrificing" some on a recruits nominal ranking.

A big mystery to me is how Nebraska has in the past years out-recruited Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin (based on 247 ratings), yet fail for the most part to put on the field a product that reflects its recruiting successes. Attached is a chart I ran listing Nebraska's top 15 signed recruits for the 2017 and 2018 classes and where they are now. The attrition at or near the top of Nebraska's classes is remarkable. To me it explains in part why Nebraska doesn't play up to expectations created by its recruiting successes. The passage of time can really decrease or increase the "value"of a recruiting class. Keep them and coach them up = good. Lose many of your top recruits each year = bad.

I haven't done the same analysis for Minnesota's 2017 & 2018 classes, but I think PJ holds on to his top recruits much better than Frost does.
Click to expand...

Pretty impressive GG - thanks.
 

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