NBADraft.net has Oturu going 8th in the 2020 draft updated today

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forever a gopher said:
Unfortunately, that's not how the NBA draft works. I have no doubt Oturu would be a better player and more developed if he stayed another year. But that often doesn't translate into higher draft position. He runs the risk of "not showing enough development" over the extra year and teams downgrading his projection. The NBA draft is all about projection and potential.

I would like to see basketball go to a baseball style system, where your two options are go pro right out of high school, or sign on to play college and stay 3 years (I think basketball could make it 2 years instead of 3). Or presumably, you could play overseas right out of high school and enter the draft after 1/2/3 years.
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But he could do that, better, in the NBA. The success of players "developing" in the NBA and even the G-League has been measurable. NBA offices are now obsessed with analytics. If drafting them younger was not paying off for teams, they would stop doing it.
 

Mulligan said:
Saw a national writer say that this year's draft is projected to be the poorest in 7 or 8 years while next year's draft is "loaded." Pretty sure Daniel is aware of that and how that might affect where he's drafted although I don't know if that would be much of a factor. Biggest thing to me would be what a serious injury would do. He has a teammate who has had two devastating knee injuries in two years.
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The first part is especially why I think he will declare this year.
 


forever a gopher said:
Unfortunately, that's not how the NBA draft works. I have no doubt Oturu would be a better player and more developed if he stayed another year. But that often doesn't translate into higher draft position. He runs the risk of "not showing enough development" over the extra year and teams downgrading his projection. The NBA draft is all about projection and potential.

I would like to see basketball go to a baseball style system, where your two options are go pro right out of high school, or sign on to play college and stay 3 years (I think basketball could make it 2 years instead of 3). Or presumably, you could play overseas right out of high school and enter the draft after 1/2/3 years.
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Just explain what benefit he would get from coming back 1 more year. His stock wont get higher. He won't be able to just focus on developing his game. People think when players come back they develop more but truth is they just become more physically mature not necessarily develop. Amir came back til his Jr Year and nothing really improved but he looks a lot better playing in the G league/NBA
 

GopherPlaya said:
Just explain what benefit he would get from coming back 1 more year. His stock wont get higher. He won't be able to just focus on developing his game. People think when players come back they develop more but truth is they just become more physically mature not necessarily develop. Amir came back til his Jr Year and nothing really improved but he looks a lot better playing in the G league/NBA
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He's very likely to go and it could be an excellent decision. However, some people are driven by different things. Maybe he wants more of the college experience and to bring a Big Ten championship to Minnesota? Maybe he thinks he can elevate himself to the #1 pick in the draft with an extra year? Maybe he doesn't want to live the NBA life style just yet? Who knows. Everyone is under the assumption that every decision is 100% money. With many it is. Not for everyone.
 


bga1 said:
He's very likely to go and it could be an excellent decision. However, some people are driven by different things. Maybe he wants more of the college experience and to bring a Big Ten championship to Minnesota? Maybe he thinks he can elevate himself to the #1 pick in the draft with an extra year? Maybe he doesn't want to live the NBA life style just yet? Who knows. Everyone is under the assumption that every decision is 100% money. With many it is. Not for everyone.
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I am not talking about him making the decision. I am talking about fans saying he needs to come back to college to develop another year and that is a false narrative. Players mature from staying another year but there isn't much more to his game he can develop from coming back to college compared to going pro and working on it everyday as a job. If he came back for reasons you listed, that makes sense but for someone to say he needs to comeback to develop when he is having one of the best years in Gopher history is crazy imo
 

GopherPlaya said:
I am not talking about him making the decision. I am talking about fans saying he needs to come back to college to develop another year and that is a false narrative. Players mature from staying another year but there isn't much more to his game he can develop from coming back to college compared to going pro and working on it everyday as a job. If he came back for reasons you listed, that makes sense but for someone to say he needs to comeback to develop when he is having one of the best years in Gopher history is crazy imo
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Totally with you there Playa. It's Daniel's decision and this is one where no one can call him dumb either way he makes it.

It COULD work to his favor to return- he could raise himself to a top 5 guy and have a great college experience for one more year. Or it COULD in his favor to leave, lower risk and he may go top 10 anyway. It is likely that it will be the latter but we'll see.

Ja Morant is going to make about 27 million over the next three years- 2nd pick
Darius Garland is going to make about 20 million over the next three years- 5th pick
Cam Reddish is going to make about 13 million over the next three years - 10th pick
Mattisse Thybule is going to make about 8 million over the next three years - 20th pick

A lot depends on the issues I discussed (experiential) and a lot depends on what he thinks he could do to position himself over the next year to get to be a top 5 kid or whatever as compared to where he thinks he might be this year (based on counsel).
 

bga1 said:
Totally with you there Playa. It's Daniel's decision and this is one where no one can call him dumb either way he makes it.

It COULD work to his favor to return- he could raise himself to a top 5 guy and have a great college experience for one more year. Or it COULD in his favor to leave, lower risk and he may go top 10 anyway. It is likely that it will be the latter but we'll see.

Ja Morant is going to make about 27 million over the next three years- 2nd pick
Darius Garland is going to make about 20 million over the next three years- 5th pick
Cam Reddish is going to make about 13 million over the next three years - 10th pick
Mattisse Thybule is going to make about 8 million over the next three years - 20th pick

A lot depends on the issues I discussed (experiential) and a lot depends on what he thinks he could do to position himself over the next year to get to be a top 5 kid or whatever as compared to where he thinks he might be this year (based on counsel).
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Your right , it is about his own values. He could do the Malcom Brogdon thing and get a masters degree, still make the NBA and get paid 20 million a year. If Daniel truly loves school he can stay. He is in a great situation whatever he decides.
 




GopherPlaya said:
Just explain what benefit he would get from coming back 1 more year
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In addition to potentially improving his stock, maybe he loves college, realizes he will only get that experience once, and has dreams of making a run in the NCAA tournament. On paper, we will be a much better team next year if he returns and therefore more likely to achieve that goal.

GopherPlaya said:
His stock wont get higher.
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That's impossible to say right now. He is improving rapidly right now and his stock absolutely could get higher if that continues.

GopherPlaya said:
People think when players come back they develop more but truth is they just become more physically mature not necessarily develop. Amir came back til his Jr Year and nothing really improved but he looks a lot better playing in the G league/NBA
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Everyone develops at different rates. Some people come into college raw and improve each year, some come in already polished and don't improve much. Bigs tend to be late bloomers and Oturu already improved significantly from year 1 to year 2. Why couldn't he make similar strides with one more season?
 

Not everyone is the same, a few examples of guys that stayed with "nothing to prove or no way to improve their draft stock" are Miles Bridges, Markus Howard, Myles Powell and Tre Jones, they all thought that they could improve their stock or enjoyed college enough to stick around. I've said before, Daniel really seems to love college and the U, that matters.
 

leib0039 said:
Not everyone is the same, a few examples of guys that stayed with "nothing to prove or no way to improve their draft stock" are Miles Bridges, Markus Howard, Myles Powell and Tre Jones, they all thought that they could improve their stock or enjoyed college enough to stick around. I've said before, Daniel really seems to love college and the U, that matters.
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That back to back title winning Florida team is a great example. Nothing to prove for Brewer, Horford, or Noah but all came back to try and win a second title. Miracles happen sometimes, just usually not for the Gophers :cry:
 

Keyser Söze said:
In addition to potentially improving his stock, maybe he loves college, realizes he will only get that experience once, and has dreams of making a run in the NCAA tournament. On paper, we will be a much better team next year if he returns and therefore more likely to achieve that goal.


That's impossible to say right now. He is improving rapidly right now and his stock absolutely could get higher if that continues.


Everyone develops at different rates. Some people come into college raw and improve each year, some come in already polished and don't improve much. Bigs tend to be late bloomers and Oturu already improved significantly from year 1 to year 2. Why couldn't he make similar strides with one more season?
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He is averaging 20 & 11 shooting almost 60% what more can he do to become a top 5 pick. His stock will be as high as it will probably be if he continues this level of play this year. Also no one said he couldn't love college but from a basketball standpoint there really aren't many benefits of coming back.
 




GopherPlaya said:
He is averaging 20 & 11 shooting almost 60% what more can he do to become a top 5 pick. His stock will be as high as it will probably be if he continues this level of play this year. Also no one said he couldn't love college but from a basketball standpoint there really aren't many benefits of coming back.
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Get stronger. Play better defense. Become a better passer out of the double team. Become a 35-40% 3 point shooter. Lead a Big Ten championship team.
 

bga1 said:
Get stronger. Play better defense. Become a better passer out of the double team. Become a 35-40% 3 point shooter. Lead a Big Ten championship team.
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He can't. His age would start working against him unless he put up one of the greatest years of all time.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
He can't. His age would start working against him unless he put up one of the greatest years of all time.
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At the rate he is improving, he might put up one of the great years of all time next year. I think he could be a strong candidate for National POY next year at this rate.

Again, there is some history that makes you mostly right but in other cases, not so much. First Oturu is a young soph if I recall. Still 19? Not sure.

A lot depends on where he would be picked this year. If he is pretty sure that he is top ten this year- then you'd likely be right. If they say he is mid teens or lower- others juniors in the past few years have move UP instead of down.
 

GopherPlaya said:
He is averaging 20 & 11 shooting almost 60% what more can he do to become a top 5 pick.
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He's gotten a lot stronger since last year, but still has a lot of room on his frame to add more strength. If he adds another 15 pounds of muscle, he could become an even better rebounder, low post scorer, and low post defender. He could improve his free throw shooting from 71.5% to something closer to 80%. He could improve his 3 point % from 30 to around 35. He sometimes struggles with anticipating and passing out of double teams and has a tendency to travel when he doesn't recognize the double soon enough, so he could work on that and cut down on turnovers. Despite his monster numbers already, he legitimately could improve them next year to something like 25 and 13 and put himself in the national player of the year conversation. He would without question improve his stock if he did that.

GopherPlaya said:
Also no one said he couldn't love college but from a basketball standpoint there really aren't many benefits of coming back.
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Just because he is a basketball player doesn't mean all of his decisions have to be made 100% from a basketball standpoint. He can make life/career decisions based on any reason he wants. If he loves college and college basketball, that could be a reason to come back.
 

Oturu listed 28th in The Athletic's newest mock:

"Oturu has been one of the big midseason risers within this cycle, going from something of an afterthought after a solid freshman campaign heading into the season to one of the best centers in college basketball. The big man out of Minnesota is averaging a monster 20.1-point, 11.5-rebound per game line while also swatting 2.7 shots per game. He also moves his feet reasonably well enough to where teams should be able to play drop coverage with him at center.

The concerns here? First, he just doesn’t really pass it at all. His near-1-to-3 assist to turnover ratio is an issue. For him to become a potential starter at the center position, he’ll need to at least be able to make reads in short rolls. Also, at 6-10, even with good length, he’ll be slightly undersized for the position. Finally, while he has shown good shooting mechanics and workable potential on that end, he is only hitting 30 percent from 3. I’d bet that he’s a good shooter in time, but that consistency needs to be repped out."
 

brucekaupa said:
I think you need to consider the trajectory he's on. Compare where he was in his first freshman game to where he is now. Then look at the correctable mistakes he's still making (the dumb travels as an example) that can be coached away.

He's gone from 24 minutes per game to 33 minutes per game (about 50% more)
He's increased his PPG from 11 to 20.
He's increased his FG% from 55% to 62%
He's increased his FT% from 62% to 69%
He's increased his RPG from 7 to 12.
He's increased his BPG from 1.3 to 2.8.

And almost most importantly...his fouls per game have remained relatively low at 2.8. For someone who plays that much and has that much activity...that's awesome.

And he's still improving.
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With Murphy moving on..... all these things would increase
 

Keyser Söze said:
He's gotten a lot stronger since last year, but still has a lot of room on his frame to add more strength. If he adds another 15 pounds of muscle, he could become an even better rebounder, low post scorer, and low post defender. He could improve his free throw shooting from 71.5% to something closer to 80%. He could improve his 3 point % from 30 to around 35. He sometimes struggles with anticipating and passing out of double teams and has a tendency to travel when he doesn't recognize the double soon enough, so he could work on that and cut down on turnovers. Despite his monster numbers already, he legitimately could improve them next year to something like 25 and 13 and put himself in the national player of the year conversation. He would without question improve his stock if he did that.



Just because he is a basketball player doesn't mean all of his decisions have to be made 100% from a basketball standpoint. He can make life/career decisions based on any reason he wants. If he loves college and college basketball, that could be a reason to come back.
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I agree with pretty much everything here except the traveling part, they don't call that in the NBA so it's negligible haha!

He is really good but I think he still has some growing up to do before his jump to the NBA and hope he comes back another year. But I would not be surprised if he left for the NBA and was drafted around the 10 spot. And I wouldn't be mad about it either. I want the gophers to start making sweet 16's regularly and occasional final 4s and to do that you need better talent and if you have better talent they are going to leave early...
 



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