Sagarin’s golden mean basically has this a pick ‘em and really, I wonder if all the analytics are more suspect than usual this year. One’s outlook probably depends on whether you’re more defense or offense-biased, and whether you believe (as I do) this was an exceptionally down year throughout college football including the SEC and Big Ten. Maybe distractions from NIL, agents, betting. Maybe practice rules. Maybe the players just aren’t as good, or the portal has killed depth.
Is it fair to say Washington hasn’t faced a defense like Michigan, and Michigan hasn’t faced an offense like Washington? Probably. Michael Penix has a ridiculously accurate arm on mid to deep throws and his receivers are really good, with Odunze a difference maker. OTOH, will Michigan blow up Washington’s protection like they did to AL? Doubtful but not inconceivable. Penix will also be much better/more composed versus pressure than the sorry AL QB. Milroe has one of if not the slowest delivery times in FBS and that offensive line was bad.
Throw out all the numbers for this one. Strength on strength, and the coaching cat and mouse tactics should be fun to watch. Individual players making plays, or not will swing it. Washington has dispatched Oregon (twice) and Texas who the analytics favored.
Washington 32
Michigan 31.
