I can't disagree with much of what you say.
But, I thought I would expand a little on your points on my speculative player minute distribution pattern thoughts.
I think we might continue to see Hoff for a couple minutes at point guard. When Hoff switches to the point, I think the game changes considerably. Our offense slows down just a tad (unless of course there is an open 3/4 court lob available) - the structure is a lil more deliberate - the ball keeps moving. Passes are crisp and purposeful - and Tubby loves the Hoff. (Both Hoff and Nolen will likely see more court time than my projected 28 minutes.) Once Hoff takes over at point I think the defense of the opposing team morphs into a mild temporary meltdown. They have just spent the entire week preparing for Hoff 'the shooter on the wing'. Now all of a sudden they have to cover him at the point. This could result in a short period of defensive discombobulation. Who's guarding him now? What's he doin out there? Is he gonna shoot from there? There was a TV show a looong time ago (Laugh In maybe?) that would change segments rapidly in the middle of the show. The abrupt segue for the segment was always, "Now for something entirely different." I would put using Hoff at the point in the same category. "Now for something entirely different." Use it for a couple minutes just to throw the defense off and see if it provides a positive 2 or 4 point swing in that segment. Then go back to a refreshed Nolen or switch Joseph back to point from the wing.
MO, IMO might just get more minutes than we think. I believe he is averaging almost 8 minutes a game now. If any one of the other 'BIG 3' gets into serious foul trouble, (like Ralph in WVU game) we will likely see MO come in to spell one of the 'remaining 2 bigs' with some relief after they have played several minutes. 8 minutes might be too many but I think MO will see some semi-significant minutes if just for the intimidation factor and move people around.
Regarding Sampson and Iverson getting equal minutes; just when I decide for myself who between those two will be the most productive, something happens to change my view - like the WVU game. In the very early part of their careers I remember Sampson and Iverson having almost identical stat lines. Minutes played, points, rebounds, blocks etc. all were amazingly close. It was uncanny - almost like they were planning it. I agree with you that Ralph will prolly see more minutes than Colt 45 - perhaps significantly more. I may have given them equal minutes just to avoid the never ending saga: RS3 or Colt 45? Tastes great --- less filling. It's good to have two complimentary players to even have the discussion. Why not settle it in a tie?
I think you are right about Rodney getting more minutes than the Hollins/Chip combo. At least I hope you are right. But after WVU, Chip's stock is rising rapidly. Rodney - not so much. My projections after the WVU game were prolly affected by some sort of 'irrational exuberance'. I hope Rodney proves my minimal minute projections for him wrong.
You are right Devoe will cut into Chip and Hollins' minutes. He might 'chip' into Rodney's as well. Like everybody, I like our depth and I like what I have seen from both Chip and Austin. Tubby likes to play a lot of players. He has a lot of players. And he seems to be getting away from the 'Hockey style' substitution pattern - except for once early in the first half. Once he gets that first wave substitution over with he seems to settle into a fairly intricate and rigorous one, two and three player substitution pattern that gets lots of players involved, but still keeps Nolen, Hoff and Mbakwe (and Devoe, when he gets back) on the court for the most minutes. It's a nice problem to have to talk about - spreading around minutes with so much depth.
By the time the Big Ten comes around things could be completely different. This is just some minor speculation after starting out 5-0, being ranked in the top 20 and Tubby saying his second unit is better than his first.
Now if Maverick has a big game against NDSU...
