My prediction in August - Correct thus far

[Gold Rush]

Every gopher football forum (or group of fans) I talked to had the Gopher finishing anywhere from 5-7 to 7-5 (Some Brew haters, i remember were picking 4-8).

What does it matter that Weber regressed or that our offense was terrible like the year before. If that was such an epic failure and we still finished exactly where you thought, then the other areas of the team must have been much better than you expected.

We went 6-6 with a terrible offense and a decent defense. I think most of us thought we'd go 6-6 with a bad offense and an ok defense. Is their a slight difference between our reality and our expectations? Always is...

All that is true, but the biggest problem is at the end of the season we had severely regressed, at least offensively. If we had to play the entire schedule right now with the offense that played the last few games, we would be lucky to win three games. If our offense can put in a decent showing at the bowl game, it would put a lot of those concerns to rest for awhile. Well coached teams get BETTER as the season goes on and they learn from their mistakes, and when that doesn't happen those are two red flags on the coaching staff.

 

[Schnoodler]

Schnoods about 10 days ago I gave a brief rundown of the progress of this team. You claim that "there's alot to suggest the team is better. And little to suggest it isn't." Rhetoric aside, what specifically are you referring to? You claim that anyone who makes a contrary analysis is wearing blinders; yet I have identified the issues that I see with this program and could claim that it is the apologists who are bridled to the Brewster buggy. Are there good things in this program? Yes. Are there enough good things? No. 6-6 three years in is not enough, and the method with which we reached 6-6 is even worse. I am a realist and do believe that we have to give Brew one more year, due to the fact that if we canned him now we would seriously hamstring any future ability to get a proven coach.

ST's = Very good
Defense = continued improvement despit DC change.
Recruiting = very good
Offense = sucks

That's 3 out of four positive against one negative.

those are the four most important things IMHO.

And we made the overall improvement playing the toughest schedule we've probably had in over twenty years. Our sangarin SOS ranking is twice as low as the next big ten team.

Oustide of the offense, the team is better over last year. And as sad as it is to say, if you consider the Big Ten results (which you should in this case) we are actually probably a little better year over year on offense. Through my strength of team analysis which I've posted several times now, we've achieved exactly to the level of this team. Which means Brew is able to coach at least to the level of his teams talent. If the level of his teams talent continues to rise, so should the results.

He can't get to success with the current offensive performance. If it doesn't improve he will not get results equal to or better than the talent level of his team. Until then, he's coaching well, and recruiting great. That my friend is why i remain positive. When he pulls a weiss and proves he can't coach to his teams talent level, we need to find a better coach. If he pulls a Mason and can't recruit to a level that will get us where he needs to go then we need to find one that can. That hasn't happened yet.

On top of all this, the biggest factor that should shut all you fire Brewster types up, is that no matter what eventually happens the team is better off with another year of Brewster regardless as his teams performance continues to improve. Despite whether Brewster is eventually at the helm when we hit greatness, he's assembled the talent. The next guy if need be, walks into a situation closer to a rose bowl since a time before some of you negative nellies were born.

But don't be a ninny, and hear that I think all is roses. I'm only saying the program is improved and still headed in the right direction. I'm not making a statement about the future of Brewster career, only about the present.

 

[goofinSF]

I support the logic of giving the guy some time. The U's recent history in football allows little room for people to think we can get rid of a coach who is trying hard to win here, which I believe he is, in such a short time.

 

[Word]

I think our defense was better this year than the statistics show. With as much as they were on the field due to how bad the offense was, it makes the statistics look worse.

I had this year's team going 7-5. The Illinois game was the difference. I was surprised that our defense was better than I expected, but also surprised how bad the offense was. There was basically no improvement in the running game and offensive line play. This, combined with not running the spread (which helped compensate for some of our lack of talent on OL), made the offense dreadful. I think this offense could be considerably better if they can shore up the OL.

 

[BadBrew]

What's so special about ST's?

I hear people talk about how improved our special teams are...maybe we have more flash on kick returns (Stoudermire, but no returns for TD's on the team). However we have given up nearly ten yards over the last three seasons on kickoffs. That means that three years ago teams had to go 79 yards and now they have to go 70. Maybe I'm a little old school with my football analysis but seems to me we want the other team to have to go further to score. Now, one could say that stat is more reflective of kicker leg strength. However, in 07 our kick coverage held opponents to 19.6 yds per return. Care to guess what we gave up this season of supposed very good special teams play? 24 yds per return...Brew's had three seasons and he will get one more, but how can people say that this team is better? I get that people hate Glen Mason, but Brewster is a middling coach at best and at worst he gets outcoached by SDSU...it is what it is and just cause it hurts doesn't mean it ain't so...

 

[Schnoodler]

First off I'll ignore the fact that I said good on St's and not improved.

Secondly you pick the only stat that looks poorly for ST's. It shows your slant and lack of objectivity. Let's look at the whole picture.

Kick off coverage, as you showed we didn't do very well. 107th in the nation with a 24.3 avg. 9th in the B10
Punt coverage. tells a little different story. 28th in the nation with a 6.0 avg. 4th in the B10 one spot behind Iowa.
Kick returns. 38th in the nation with 23.0 avg. 6th in the Big ten
Punt returns. 8th in the nation with 14.7 avg. 1st in the Big ten.
Punting net. 18th in the nation with a 40.0 net avg. 1st in the Big ten.
FG%. 34th in the nation with 78.6. 2nd in the Big ten.
xp%. tied for first with 100%. Tied for 1st with PSU and Indiana in the Big ten.


When looking at the entire ST's contribution, and not cherry picking for the worst stat you can find, we look quite well against the rest of the league. Depending on how you want to weight the various factors, we're going to come out first to fourth in the B10. That's pretty good. To me that's a check mark on the good side.

 

[RedPoo]

Kick off coverage, as you showed we didn't do very well. 107th in the nation with a 24.3 avg. 9th in the B10
.

...and when you think about it, we kick off, what, 12 times a year? Maybe 15 if we can get a couple field goals?




sorry, couldn't resist.

 

[Schnauzer]

Very good point RAH. I personally had a prediction of 7-5 in that same time frame and I came pretty close, but not quite as accurate as your prediction. I just find it strange that a team can pretty much meet everyone's expectations from pre season but do so in a way that changes some minds to fire everyone and clean house. I can only speculate but if the team had arrived at 6-6 and did so by losing the last 3 games by an average score of 48-50 there would be a certain segment of the fan base that would cry out for.... Brewster's firing.

I guess the better question is how could the reality of the actual 6-6 season be compared to some other make-believe 6-6 season that would have been more acceptable. After all, EVERYONE agrees this was the hardest Gopher schedule in years, right?

From my point of view, I saw some things that frustrated me this year and at any given time I had some material to question the coaching of the team. But, I am of the belief that unless the bottom completely falls out of a program or there is illegal activity, ANY coach deserves to have enough time to build a team, make a plan, execute it, and see HIS seniors lead the team. I may one day switch my vote to "fire Brewster" but that day certainly isn't today after he has managed to produce two teams that get the same results as previous coaching staff. I want to see New Years bowl games and conference championships just like everyone else. I just don't think that given the history of the program that a .500 season is a fire-worthy offense in year three of a coaching term. That is squarely putting the cart (Ohio State like expectations) ahead of the horse (40 years of mediocre football).