Morning Call: Is Penn State still a Rose Bowl contender? Absolutely

[BleedGopher]

per The Morning Call:

Run for the roses?
Hoping for a trip to the Rose Bowl? Root for Wisconsin to beat Minnesota, then lose to unbeaten Ohio State again in the Big Ten title game. That likely would leave Penn State as the highest-ranked Big Ten team after playoff-bound Ohio State.

According to the Big Ten’s bowl-selection procedures, the Rose Bowl chooses a replacement team if the conference champ qualifies for the College Football Playoff. That has happened once since the CFP began: No. 5 Iowa went in 2016 after losing to Michigan State in the Big Ten title game.

Assuming Penn State beats Rutgers at home, the team’s Rose Bowl hopes will hinge on next week’s Minnesota-Wisconsin game. The Gophers won last year, ending a 14-game losing streak to Wisconsin.

Is Penn State still a Rose Bowl contender? Absolutely

Plenty to sift through from Penn State’s 28-17 loss to Ohio State. Here’s a pick-six’s worth. Run for the roses? Hoping for a trip to the Rose Bowl? Root for Wisconsin to beat Min…

www.mcall.com

Go Gophers!!

 

[Doc1001]

I think Michigan could find their way in too .

 

[MNVCGUY]

I think Michigan could find their way in too .

If they beat Ohio State and Wisconsin beats us Michigan might have a shot but would seem like a pretty big longshot at this point. Was mentioned in another thread but it is kind of funny quirk that Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State all have the same record yet somehow Michigan is the highest ranked of the 3 in spite of the fact that their 2 loses are to Wisconsin and Penn State.

Penn State has the biggest gripe since their 2 losses are us and Ohio State so it is not like they have lost to a mediocre team the way Wisconsin did.

 

[Breakin' The Plane]

Mega dink Jerry Palm has PSU to the Rose in his latest bowl predictions.

 

[Veritas]

We "only" need to do two things in order to get the Rose Bowl or better, beat Wisconsin and cover the spread against Ohio State. Go Gophers!!!

 

[MplsGopher]

Ah ha! Thank you for the link to the document in the OP. That is finally the definitive source.

And it does not explicitly decree that the 2nd-highest ranked Big Ten must go to the Rose Bowl if the champion is in the CFP, in years where the Rose is not a semi-final.

It merely says that the Rose will decide. It also does explicitly say that the rules about teams not going to the same bowl in back-to-back years (and/or requiring a certain number of different teams in a period of years) do NOT apply to the Rose Bowl.


Bottom line: there is no scenario in which the Gophers (or any BT team) are a 100% lock to play in the Rose Bowl this season. Only more likely than others.

 

[MplsGopher]

We "only" need to do two things in order to get the Rose Bowl or better, beat Wisconsin and cover the spread against Ohio State. Go Gophers!!!

I would amend your second point to be something like "lose to Ohio St by fewer points than Penn St lost to them in Columbus". That may or may not agree with what you said, depending how they set the spread.

 

[Veritas]

I would amend your second point to be something like "lose to Ohio St by fewer points than Penn St lost to them in Columbus". That may or may not agree with what you said, depending how they set the spread.

I don't think that is necessary in that we beat Penn State and there really is no getting around that reality other than us pulling a Badger and losing to OSU by an ugly amount.

 

[MplsGopher]

I don't think that is necessary in that we beat Penn State and there really is no getting around that reality other than us pulling a Badger and losing to OSU by an ugly amount.

There is no way to prove what they'll do, one way or another. It's subjective for a reason.

My thinking is the committee might say something like this:
"PSU and Minnesota both have two losses. Both lost a tough conference game on the road, PSU to Minn, and Minn to Iowa. We think the PSU loss is the slightly better of those two. And both lost to Ohio St, PSU by 11 in Columbus, and Minn by 14 (making that up) in Indy. Since PSU played in a harder environment vs Ohio St, and played on the road at Minn, we think they'd beat Minn at neutral field, and thus are ranking them higher."

Could be far-fatched, that's fine, I'm only saying they could.

 

[Veritas]

There is no way to prove what they'll do, one way or another. It's subjective for a reason.

My thinking is the committee might say something like this:
"PSU and Minnesota both have two losses. Both lost a tough conference game on the road, PSU to Minn, and Minn to Iowa. We think the PSU loss is the slightly better of those two. And both lost to Ohio St, PSU by 11 in Columbus, and Minn by 14 (making that up) in Indy. Since PSU played in a harder environment vs Ohio St, and played on the road at Minn, we think they'd beat Minn at neutral field, and thus are ranking them higher."

Could be far-fatched, that's fine, I'm only saying they could.

It is far fetched. Minnesota and PJ Fleck are the story of the Big Ten this year, by far. Even Ohio State's remarkable season is seen as rather ho hum.

 

[Maverick]

There is no way to prove what they'll do, one way or another. It's subjective for a reason.

My thinking is the committee might say something like this:
"PSU and Minnesota both have two losses. Both lost a tough conference game on the road, PSU to Minn, and Minn to Iowa. We think the PSU loss is the slightly better of those two. And both lost to Ohio St, PSU by 11 in Columbus, and Minn by 14 (making that up) in Indy. Since PSU played in a harder environment vs Ohio St, and played on the road at Minn, we think they'd beat Minn at neutral field, and thus are ranking them higher."

Could be far-fatched, that's fine, I'm only saying they could.

It is also likely that the Rose Bowl Committee looks at Minnesota as a Founding Memeber of the Big 10 and Penn State as a Johnny come lately....this giving the nod to MINNESOTA!!!

 

[MplsGopher]

Hope so!

Keeping in mind, as finally definitively shown on this thread, just because you're the 2nd highest ranked team after the BT champion, does not prove you are locked into going to the Rose. But they have always chosen the 2nd highest team, in the two years where they needed to (2015 and 2016).

 

[tmvander]

I think if we beat Wisconsin we will jump up in the rankings. We will for sure jump ahead of Florida and maybe someone like Oklahoma or Utah as well. Penn St won't climb anyone besides the Wisconsin team we beat by beating Rutgers (if Wis is ahead of them in the CFP rankings).

This could widen the gap between us leading up to the Ohio ST game. At that point there could be 4 or 5 teams between us. Would we drop 4 or 5 spots even getting beat somewhat bad by Ohio St?

Also have to remember we will have 11 wins to Penn ST's 10 wins