NCAA RPI and Strength of Schedule through games of 1-26-20. Moving, sort of, into RPI striking distance even with the ridiculous, self attached, Illini ball and chain.
| RPI | Team | SOS | Conf | | | | | |
| 9 | Maryland | 11 | 9-2 | | | | | |
| 12 | Iowa | 20 | 9-2 | | | | | |
| 14 | Indiana | 7 | 7-3 | | | | | |
| 15 | Northwestern | 40 | 9-2 | | | | | |
| 25 | Ohio State | 3 | 4-5 | | | | | |
| 26 | Purdue | 21 | 6-4 | | | | | |
| 40 | Michigan | 28 | 9-2 | | | | | |
| 45 | Rutgers | 119 | 6-4 | | | | | |
| 54 | Minnesota | 36 | 4-7 | | | | | |
| 73 | Nebraska | 90 | 5-6 | | | | | |
| 102 | Michigan State | 77 | 4-6 | | | | | |
| 107 | Wisconsin | 61 | 3-8 | | | | | |
| 161 | Illinois | 94 | 1-9 | | | | | |
| 182 | Penn State | 46 | 1-10 | | | | | |
Iggy's last post is the correct RPI/SoS as of 2-2-2020 (with now-corrected date).
I think it's useful to sort in order of Current RPI (referenced post) as well as in order of estimated End of Season RPI - which I'll update in this post as of 2-3-2020 (with Current stats having only minor differences caused by any Monday games).
The following table shows estimated End-of-Season (EoS) RPI (sorted in that order) and EoS SoS, along with Current (Cur) RPI and SoS, and won/loss records for Conference (Conf) and Total season (thus far, in the case of Current). End-of-Season estimates are based on Warren Nolan's projected End-of-Season RPI, End-of-Season SoS, and End-of-Season Conf W-L (which aren't super great, but seem to be more accurate than other estimates such as Gamer).
| EoS RPI | EoS SoS | EoS Conf | EoS Total | Team | Cur RPI | Cur SoS | Cur Conf | Cur Total |
| 5 | 12 | 16-2 | 25-4 | Maryland | 8 | 11 | 9-2 | 18-4 |
| 14 | 8 | 14-4 | 24-6 | Indiana | 13 | 7 | 8-3 | 18-5 |
| 15 | 22 | 14-4 | 23-6 | Iowa | 12 | 17 | 9-2 | 18-4 |
| 16 | 50 | 16-2 | 26-3 | Northwestern | 16 | 29 | 9-2 | 19-3 |
| 35 | 4 | 9-9 | 16-3 | Ohio State | 27 | 3 | 5-5 | 12-9 |
| 39 | 17 | 10-8 | 19-11 | Purdue | 33 | 13 | 6-5 | 15-8 |
| 44 | 89 | 12-6 | 22-7 | Rutgers | 46 | 93 | 6-4 | 16-5 |
| 54 | 30 | 9-9 | 18-11 | Michigan | 40 | 31 | 5-5 | 14-7 |
| 81 | 28 | 6-12 | 16-13 | Minnesota | 55 | 38 | 4-7 | 14-8 |
| 86 | 55 | 7-11 | 17-12 | Nebraska | 73 | 71 | 5-6 | 15-7 |
| 133 | 63 | 7-11 | 14-15 | Michigan State | 100 | 52 | 4-7 | 11-11 |
| 156 | 44 | 3-15 | 11-18 | Wisconsin | 112 | 63 | 3-8 | 11-11 |
| 210 | 58 | 1-17 | 10-19 | Illinois | 162 | 82 | 1-9 | 10-11 |
| 213 | 45 | 2-16 | 8-21 | Penn State | 190 | 49 | 1-10 | 7-15 |
Warren Nolan currently predicts 2 more wins for the Gophers: a 71-66 road win at Wisconsin, and a 72-71 squeaker over Michigan.
Nolan predicts all our games after Michigan to be losses. That includes a 70-72 squeaker loss at Ohio State and a 71-72 squeaker loss at Michigan State. I personally think we can win those two close games, although a lot might depend on the health of Jasmine Brunson.
Then Nolan predicts sizable losses versus Indiana, at Iowa, and versus Maryland.
This projection would give us a 6-12 Big-Ten record (projected to be in 9th RPI-place among Big Ten teams) and projected 16-13 overall record, but with a projected RPI of 81 (sandwiched between Nebraska and Michigan). This would probably be out of reach of a playoff berth. If we win all the predicted close wins, but convert the two predicted close losses to wins (with other predicted results being the same), we would end up with a 8-10 Big-Ten record and a better-than-81 RPI - but perhaps still not enough for a playoff berth.
If, in addition to beating Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State, we could also steal a win from one of {Indiana, Iowa, Maryland}, then we would get a 9-9 Big-Ten record (just like last year) along with a 19-10 overall record. But due to having a much better SoS this year than last year, under the latter scenario we might actually be on the bubble for NCAA selection, rather than out in the cold like last year. Don't get too excited though - that's a lot of ifs - but I'm just saying, we're not mathematically eliminated yet (as of after the Rutgers win).
Although our SoS (projected at 28 by end of season) is definitely helping our RPI this season (instead of hindering it as typical in the past), just our bad luck that all three of Ohio State and Indiana and Maryland wisely set up even better (stronger) non-conference schedules, so that their end-of-season SoSes are projected to be at 4/8/12, respectively. By doing that, they effectively moved their "starting blocks," for the race, forward a few meters.
Interestingly, if you order the Big Ten strictly by projected end-of-season RPI (which one might expect the selection committee to do with actual end-of-season RPIs, at least for a naive first-pass at selection), then the projected Warren Nolan end-of-season RPI ranking bumps Minnesota up two slots versus Charlie Creme's current bracketology (in which Minnesota is out). Specifically, an expected-RPI ranking bumps us (expected #81) over both Michigan State (expected #133) and Nebraska (expected #86). In the Charlie Creme bracketology, he predicts 9 Big-Ten teams will get in the Big Dance. Right now he has Nebraska in, and both Minnesota and Michigan State out. In other words, he gives the 9th and last Big-Ten slot to Nebraska, based on Nebraska's current better record and in spite of Nebraska's projected worse SoS (55 versus our 28). We are 9th ranked by projected end-of-season RPI (per the above table), so if Charlie is right that they pick 9 Big-Ten teams for the Big Dance, but he's wrong in his guess that they pick Nebraska over Minnesota (because the committee likes our more challenging SoS, for instance), then there is some chance (per that eventuality) that Minnesota could Dance instead of Nebraska. Also, Minnesota beat Nebraska once but lost once, so you could argue that neither has the tie-breaker over each other.
The tarot cards are pointing towards a possible showdown between Minnesota and Nebraska competing for that bubble 9th Big-Ten ticket to the Big Dance. To have any chance for that bubble opportunity, I'd guess that the Gophers would need to beat Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, and at least one of {Indiana, Iowa, Maryland}.
The other intriguing curiousity worth noting, vis-a-vis the potentiality of 9 Big-Ten teams making the NCAA Playoffs this year, is that (if Warren Nolan's predictions are even ball-park true, then) the 9th team that the committee selects is very likely going to have an end-of-season RPI in the 70s or 80s - be it Minnesota or Nebraska (or some other team that tumbles down the ranking in the remaining games). The question is, is the selection committee going to choke on that high of an RPI, in spite of the fact that they know that the Big Ten is super strong this year?
That's an interesting question in its own right. I wrote a separate post on that issue, but can't remember which thread - back when Charlie was predicting 11 Big-Ten teams to be in the Big Dance. The essence of that analysis was, certain non-trivial RPI mathematical effects, within any super-strong conference (with the Big Ten being the best example), make the number of conference teams that the committee will likely invite to the Playoffs self-limiting, in the sense that the committee is likely to choke on the high RPIs involved for the bubble teams. Since RPI Kool-Aide is the committee's drug of choice, there is a good chance that they might choke on a 9th or higher Big-Ten team, since it doesn't contain enough RPI Kool-Aide to satisfy their addiction.
