MN Daily: ..."under Kill there are little signs of improvement."

[BleedGopher]

per the Daily Column: Kill's record tells bigger story, ya feel me?:

This is a results-based business, and under Kill there are little signs of improvement.

Demolishing inferior nonconference competition doesn’t indicate legitimate progress.

If Michigan — a Big Ten powerhouse — is a measuring stick the Gophers use to chart progress, then there has been no progress in Kill’s three seasons.

Three years. Three carnages.

It’s time to stop examining Kill’s epilepsy and start examining his win-loss record.

Ya feel me?

http://www.mndaily.com/sports/football/2013/10/06/column-kills-record-tells-bigger-story-ya-feel-me

Go Gophers!!

 

[thailleagle]

There is progress... just not much of it so far but let's see how the rest of the season plays out first...

 

[John Galt]

Improvement compared to what? Saturday's loss was definitely a significant improvement over the last time they went to Michigan...

 

[beavergopher]

One area that seemed to have improved, stupid penalties, have resurfaced against Iowa and Michigan.

 

[dpodoll68]

Demolishing inferior nonconference competition doesn’t indicate legitimate progress.

So losing to them is the same?

 

[RodentRampage]

The season is still young, we'll know a lot more later.

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

So losing to them is the same?

No doubt. Two years ago: Losing to NDSU and NMSU, blown out by the likes of PURDUE, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Michigan all either doubled or tripled the Gophers total yardage outputs, including being outgained by Michigan 580 yards to 177.

Last year: Triple OT against a much worse UNLV team than this year's version, coming from BEHIND to beat a Western Michigan team that went 4-8 and fired it's coach.

But apparently there's almost no improvement. Apparently it's also perfectly logical to expect a coach to completely rebuild an 85-scholarship roster in 24 months or so. One thing is for sure also; any wins the Gophers come up with in the last 6 games, there will be people who will be quick to point out the ENORMOUS flaws in those teams, how BAD they must be.

 

[Halsey Hall]

No doubt. Two years ago: Losing to NDSU and NMSU, blown out by the likes of PURDUE, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Michigan all either doubled or tripled the Gophers total yardage outputs, including being outgained by Michigan 580 yards to 177.

Last year: Triple OT against a much worse UNLV team than this year's version, coming from BEHIND to beat a Western Michigan team that went 4-8 and fired it's coach.

But apparently there's almost no improvement. Apparently it's also perfectly logical to expect a coach to completely rebuild an 85-scholarship roster in 24 months or so. One thing is for sure also; any wins the Gophers come up with in the last 6 games, there will be people who will be quick to point out the ENORMOUS flaws in those teams, how BAD they must be.

Struggled w/ UNLV, NMSU, West Ill., SJSU. That's not progress. Yes they won but it was a battle. Then lay a rotten egg against Iowa and Mich.
The first Kill game we almost beat USC in CA. From the Texas Tech game to today I think we have regressed.

 

[edma0012]

sing it!

per the Daily Column: Kill's record tells bigger story, ya feel me?:

This is a results-based business, and under Kill there are little signs of improvement.

Demolishing inferior nonconference competition doesn’t indicate legitimate progress.

If Michigan — a Big Ten powerhouse — is a measuring stick the Gophers use to chart progress, then there has been no progress in Kill’s three seasons.

Three years. Three carnages.

It’s time to stop examining Kill’s epilepsy and start examining his win-loss record.

Ya feel me?

http://www.mndaily.com/sports/football/2013/10/06/column-kills-record-tells-bigger-story-ya-feel-me

Go Gophers!!

Few if any objective measures of improvement exist.
I'll admit there are a number of subjective measures of improvement, but so what.

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

Struggled w/ UNLV, NMSU, West Ill., SJSU. That's not progress. Yes they won but it was a battle. Then lay a rotten egg against Iowa and Mich.
The first Kill game we almost beat USC in CA. From the Texas Tech game to today I think we have regressed.

An average margin of victory of 19.25 points per game is "struggling"? Ouch. That's a harsh criteria.

Iowa was a major disappointment. Without question. Again, I don't think Michigan was the unabashed disaster so many are describing. Went into the game with major questions at QB and completely unsure of whether or not they could throw the ball with any ability and they left the game seemingly set with Leidner at QB and he went 14-for-21 passing, in his first road start and first road BT start, as a freshman.

Texas Tech game? At least they had a healthy Nelson in that game. Against Iowa, he was obviously less than 100% and that was huge.

For the record; through 6 games last year, 44 penalties (7.33/game); through 6 games this year, 21 penalties (3.5/game), good for 6th in the country.
Last year, through 2 BT games they were -7 in TO margin. This year, through two BT games they are -3.

Those are two pretty big areas to make major improvements. The team is markedly improved.

 

[John Galt]

Struggled w/ UNLV, NMSU, West Ill., SJSU. That's not progress. Yes they won but it was a battle. Then lay a rotten egg against Iowa and Mich.
The first Kill game we almost beat USC in CA. From the Texas Tech game to today I think we have regressed.

They didn't struggle with those teams, they won every game by at least 17 points. Struggling was when we went 1-3 in the non-conference in 2011. Struggling was when we got our a$$ handed to us at home against South Dakota in 2010. 2012 was also a struggle, as we barely held on to beat UNLV and Western Michigan. We were lucky to start 4-0 last year; this year we did it easily.

This team is better than the 2010 and the 2011 squads. But ultimately, we need to win some Big Ten games. 6 more to go....

 

[MadtownGopher]

Kill desperately needs a signature win. It is hard to get excited to watch the Big Ten slate when you feel like you only have a 10-30% chance of winning against even the conference bottom feeders. The epilepsy thing doesn't help either, though it shouldn't be a significant factor in determining whether he should be the coach of this team long term. For me it is all about the conference performance and to date it has been absolutely horrible. I'm not sure we could hire a much better coach though, so our best course is to hope the Kill regime figures it out.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

An average margin of victory of 19.25 points per game is "struggling"? Ouch. That's a harsh criteria.

Iowa was a major disappointment. Without question. Again, I don't think Michigan was the unabashed disaster so many are describing. Went into the game with major questions at QB and completely unsure of whether or not they could throw the ball with any ability and they left the game seemingly set with Leidner at QB and he went 14-for-21 passing, in his first road start and first road BT start, as a freshman.

Texas Tech game? At least they had a healthy Nelson in that game. Against Iowa, he was obviously less than 100% and that was huge.

For the record; through 6 games last year, 44 penalties (7.33/game); through 6 games this year, 21 penalties (3.5/game), good for 6th in the country.
Last year, through 2 BT games they were -7 in TO margin. This year, through two BT games they are -3.

Those are two pretty big areas to make major improvements. The team is markedly improved.

This is another thing that was frustrating for me in the B1G games. We were very disciplined through out of conference play, getting only (I believe) 10 penalties in four games (2.5/game). But then once we hit the conference, we had 5 in one game and 6 in another. I was hoping that the discipline and not beating ourselves was going to be what could help us hang around and steal one of these games.

 

[beavergopher]

This is another thing that was frustrating for me in the B1G games. We were very disciplined through out of conference play, getting only (I believe) 10 penalties in four games (2.5/game). But then once we hit the conference, we had 5 in one game and 6 in another. I was hoping that the discipline and not beating ourselves was going to be what could help us hang around and steal one of these games.

You are not the only one.

 

[drinks at Northpoint]

This is another thing that was frustrating for me in the B1G games. We were very disciplined through out of conference play, getting only (I believe) 10 penalties in four games (2.5/game). But then once we hit the conference, we had 5 in one game and 6 in another. I was hoping that the discipline and not beating ourselves was going to be what could help us hang around and steal one of these games.

11 penalties in two games is still not bad. Not great, but I don't think its a sign of lack of discipline.

 

[4four4]

I have seen progress. The four wins shows how far this team has come and the two losses shows how far this team needs to improve before we start seeing Big Ten wins. Some people around here believe this football program should magically be as good as the hockey program. Sure we would all love that but in reality this football program needs more time with one coach. Currently, I am looking for competitiveness and not wins and losses. This group deserves more time than 24 months! Rome wasn't built over night.

 

[CoMn]

Academics
Lack of bad behavior that makes the news
The bottom of our recruiting classes are much more solid than a couple years ago
Few players leaving the program (this is ALWAYS a sign of good coaching)
A team that has the size of a B1G team
Lack of penalties (shows discipline and buy-in)
Fewer missed tackles
Student attendance
Smarter recruiting...ie. we needed linebackers badly and we got a couple starters that are filling in nicely
Decent PWO groups
The kicking game
Special teams!

These are some things that I have noticed. We still have problems but they are getting addressed, brick by brick. Be patient.

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

11 penalties in two games is still not bad. Not great, but I don't think its a sign of lack of discipline.

Through 6 games last year, they had 4 games with at least 8 penalties; 8, 9, 9, and 11. Ouch.

It's worth noting that the Gophers have played the #8 and #9 rushing defenses in the nation in Iowa and Michigan so far. The Gophers ran for more yards against Michigan than anyone else has so far, including Notre Dame.

They face some far less intimidating rush defenses in the remaining 6 games, like Northwestern (#48, until they travel to Madison this week), Nebraska (#85), and Indiana (#107). That should help the offensive production, without question.

 

[SamSquatch]

Just by saying we expected greater improvement than we're seeing doesn't mean we have misguided notions of the program, or expect the program will "magically" be on par with the hockey program. We do see some progress. It has been choppier than it should have been. We should be more competitive in B1G play.

Saying we expect greater improvement also doesn't translate to "Fire Jerry!" Kill is our man. Because we believe in him, we expect him to be able to bring that level of improvement.

We did not dominate our non-con play despite the final scores. The Gophers did not come out and impose their will on any of those teams. They won, and that is fantastic. They won by larger margins than in the past, and that is great. But you can say the same thing about these games as is being said about the Michigan game - they were closer than the final score indicates.

 

[Iceland12]

"This is a results-based business, and under Kill there are little signs of improvement"

Now that seems more accurate.

 

[GoldInDirt]

See my online comment to the Mn Daily article below.

Mr. Gordon, do you know the most recent year the Gophers finished the season with 1 or 2 conference losses in football? Apparently not. The Gophers had two conference losses in 1973. They had one conference loss in 1967. Are you suggesting a coach in his third year, who inherited a team that some question was the worst team in the history of the Big 10, should be able to improve the team's conference record equalling the best season in 40 years? Please ignore what some of the "writers" at the StarTribune do and spend a little more time on research.

 

[atsgopher]

I take issue with the OP premise "this is a result based business." Especially, when the criteria is limited to box score evaluations. Won loss records and scores accumulations are meaningless without context and baseline references. Additionally, If one makes that claim, time frame must be included for the claim to be taken as a serious argument.

Once one considers time frame, I think it's still suspect.

In the short run this premise is absolutely false. There are simply too many factors that lay outside any one person's particular control to state unequivocally that results should be the focus of or even factor in success measured in a program. Any measures whether must be relative to some base with allowances for contextual factors such as state of program and necessary cultural shifts.

In the long run, one can make the claim, but the claim cannot be some hard standard, such as, we need to have XX number of wins and beast team XX.

That type of thinking presupposes a simple and static system and college football is clearly dynamic and complex. Results that can, and should be communicated, have to be done in relative standing to peers. This offers both downside and upside considerations as it does not introduce built in excuses, nor does it penalize in the event the entire system (i.e. competitiveness of the Big Ten) changes.

When probabilistic thinking is employed in any athletic setting, the focus should always be on process. The process should show improvement, and that improvement, should be measured and tracked. Put yourself in the best position to win, and then quit wasting energy worrying about how bounces turn out. This has long been a consideration in sports, and has really lost its standing after the ESPN/internet Rhetorical revolution in the sports world. I should add it's especially true in football, as data is far more subject to cultural shifts and structural manipulation as opposed to a sport like baseball.

 

[Former Goofer]

Tim Brewster first 3 years:

14-24 (.368 winning %) overall record
6-18 (.250 winning %) B10 record
9 20+ point blowout losses

Jerry Kill first 3 years:

13-18 (.419 winning %) overall record
4-14 (.222 winning %) B10 record
9 20+ point blowout losses

Don't forget that Kill schedules absolute cupcakes non conference opponents whereas with Brewster we actually faced some legitimate ones. The results are eerily similar and slightly favor Brew up to this point.

 

[atsgopher]

Academics
Lack of bad behavior that makes the news
The bottom of our recruiting classes are much more solid than a couple years ago
Few players leaving the program (this is ALWAYS a sign of good coaching)
A team that has the size of a B1G team
Lack of penalties (shows discipline and buy-in)
Fewer missed tackles
Student attendance
Smarter recruiting...ie. we needed linebackers badly and we got a couple starters that are filling in nicely
Decent PWO groups
The kicking game
Special teams!

These are some things that I have noticed. We still have problems but they are getting addressed, brick by brick. Be patient.

+1, Good post.

 

[GoldenUMNGopher]

Those are all great things if you are actually winning. Still cant beat Big Ten teams. By the way, kicking game is still horrendous and there are more than enough missed tackles each game.

Academics
Lack of bad behavior that makes the news
The bottom of our recruiting classes are much more solid than a couple years ago
Few players leaving the program (this is ALWAYS a sign of good coaching)
A team that has the size of a B1G team
Lack of penalties (shows discipline and buy-in)
Fewer missed tackles
Student attendance
Smarter recruiting...ie. we needed linebackers badly and we got a couple starters that are filling in nicely
Decent PWO groups
The kicking game
Special teams!

These are some things that I have noticed. We still have problems but they are getting addressed, brick by brick. Be patient.

 

[Gopher_Nutz]

It's hard to argue with people who think things need to happen immediately. If it's so bad and there isn't any progress please tell me how you recommend the pace of progress be improved.

 

[dpodoll68]

Don't forget that Kill schedules absolute cupcakes non conference opponents whereas with Brewster we actually faced some legitimate ones.

Syracuse wasn't legitimate, eh?

 

[John Galt]

Tim Brewster first 3 years:

14-24 (.368 winning %) overall record
6-18 (.250 winning %) B10 record
9 20+ point blowout losses

Jerry Kill first 3 years:

13-18 (.419 winning %) overall record
4-14 (.222 winning %) B10 record
9 20+ point blowout losses

Don't forget that Kill schedules absolute cupcakes non conference opponents whereas with Brewster we actually faced some legitimate ones. The results are eerily similar and slightly favor Brew up to this point.

Any comparison between Kill and Brewster midway through year 3 is a worthless exercise. When Brewster started, he inheritred a team that was typically winning 6-7 games per year. Kill inherited a team that lost to South Dakota and would have gone 1-11 if Brewster was allowed to finish out the year.

 

[Ski U Mah Gopher]

Tim Brewster first 3 years:

14-24 (.368 winning %) overall record
6-18 (.250 winning %) B10 record
9 20+ point blowout losses

Jerry Kill first 3 years:

13-18 (.419 winning %) overall record
4-14 (.222 winning %) B10 record
9 20+ point blowout losses

Don't forget that Kill schedules absolute cupcakes non conference opponents whereas with Brewster we actually faced some legitimate ones. The results are eerily similar and slightly favor Brew up to this point.

BCS non-conference opponents:

Brewster:
2007 - none
2008 - none
2009 - Syracuse (W) Cal (L)
2010 - USC (L)

Kill:
2011 - USC (L)
2012 - Syracuse (W)
2013 - None

So Brewster went 1-2 in his non-conference BCS, while Kill has gone 1-1.

 

[50PoundHead]

Academics
Lack of bad behavior that makes the news
The bottom of our recruiting classes are much more solid than a couple years ago
Few players leaving the program (this is ALWAYS a sign of good coaching)
A team that has the size of a B1G team
Lack of penalties (shows discipline and buy-in)
Fewer missed tackles
Student attendance
Smarter recruiting...ie. we needed linebackers badly and we got a couple starters that are filling in nicely
Decent PWO groups
The kicking game
Special teams!

These are some things that I have noticed. We still have problems but they are getting addressed, brick by brick. Be patient.

I agree with everything but the highlighted item. I don't see us as being particularly bigger or that much more athletic than we've been going back to Mason's years. Saturday's game was another sad reminder of that, at least to me. We do have some kids coming along, but we have some growing to do.