Misleading Commentary Regarding 9/10 Win Seasons

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IceBoxGopher

IceBoxGopher

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Coach Fleck has the opportunity to reach nine wins, and in doing so, he’d be the first coach since Henry Williams to have three seasons with at least nine victories. I’ve seen that thrown around a lot lately, and I remember it was talked about quite a bit, too, in the 2019 season.

It’s really kind of a misleading figure, though, considering how seasons were scheduled in the early decades of college football. I think it’s safe to say that if played with modern football schedules, a lot of the teams under Bernie Bierman and Murray Warmath would have won 10+ games, if not more.

First of all, there are the obvious examples, the six national championship seasons.

Under Bierman, four of those teams went 8-0 while another went 7-1. If you tacked on more non-conference games in those seasons, considering how good they were relatively, those Bierman teams would probably be the type that go 15-0/14-1 these days.

Even in the non-national championship type seasons, there probably could have been 10-win seasons in other years. Minnesota went 6-2 in 1937 and 1938, 6-3 in 1947, and 7-2 in 1948 and 1949. During nearly all of those seasons, Minnesota played nothing but what are now Power 5 teams. Again, with modern scheduling, these types of teams would probably be the equivalent of a 10, 11 or 12 win team that plays in either a NY6 game or a Citrus Bowl.

The same can be said about Warmath’s squads. The 1960 season had nothing but Power 5 teams. In a modern schedule, that team most likely wins more than 10 games. I also think that if the national championship was on the line and the polls came out the next day, they would have beaten Washington.

The 1961 and 1967 seasons are similar. In 1961, Minnesota only played teams that are in the Power 5 today. Add on some more non-con games and that team is a 10+ win squad with a Rose Bowl victory. The 1967 team is also the type to likely get a NY6 berth and 10 wins considering it was a co-champion in the Big Ten.

I think the argument can be made that the 1954 (7-2), 1956 (6-1-2), 1962 (6-2-1) and 1968 (6-4) teams also could have earned between 9 and 11 wins with a good bowl to go to played by modern schedules.
 

Win percentage or conference win percentage are probably better metrics to use when looking at seasons historically. Especially when the total number of games don't match or the number of conference games are different.

All 8/9 win seasons are not created equally as well. To me, this season will compare very similarily with 2016. Good win total, but not a lot of impressive victories along the way.
 

In general I think it's really difficult to compare any kind of stats/records across eras. The game has changed so much in terms of how it's played, schedules are set up, etc.
 

Word said:
In general I think it's really difficult to compare any kind of stats/records across eras. The game has changed so much in terms of how it's played, schedules are set up, etc.
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And especially in football the players themselves are so much bigger, faster and stronger now. Guys who would have been lineman in the past would be small by today's standards.
 



You can eliminate comparisons with early Gopher teams under Williams, Bierman, etc. for the reasons stated.

Just compare this year's 8 or 9 wins to recent Gopher history.

And/or, compare 8 or 9 Gopher wins this season with other teams' records from around the country in 2022.

See how it looks to you.

To make it easier, I'd bet there are analytics types who are doing this already, using strength of schedule, etc.
 

Word said:
In general I think it's really difficult to compare any kind of stats/records across eras. The game has changed so much in terms of how it's played, schedules are set up, etc.
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Absolutely - many of the Gopher's best teams were in an era of segregated athletics. That doesn't diminish what they did, but it does feel silly to compare eras separated by so much time, culture, and changes in athletics.
 

More games = more chances to win and lose. We will never know what those teams would have done with more games.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
More games = more chances to win and lose. We will never know what those teams would have done with more games.
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Yep. The distant past is an unfair comparison.

As stated, compare with recent Gopher history and/or compare with other teams around the country in 2022.

That'll provide a more relevant look at things. Apples to apples.
 



MNVCGUY said:
Win percentage or conference win percentage are probably better metrics to use when looking at seasons historically. Especially when the total number of games don't match or the number of conference games are different.

All 8/9 win seasons are not created equally as well. To me, this season will compare very similarily with 2016. Good win total, but not a lot of impressive victories along the way.
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I believe it's totally appropriate (and the geek in me thinks it's fun) to compare seasons by conference win percentage. Plus, everyone seems to talk about wins, but no one wants to mention losses. If all we do is look at games won and lost and not percentages, the current 4-loss conference season isn't all that impressive.
 

Panthadad2 said:
I believe it's totally appropriate (and the geek in me thinks it's fun) to compare seasons by conference win percentage. Plus, everyone seems to talk about wins, but no one wants to mention losses. If all we do is look at games won and lost and not percentages, the current 4-loss conference season isn't all that impressive.
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Yes. The losses tell an interesting story.

Illinois beat us, but lost to Michigan State.

Iowa beat us, but lost to Nebraska.

Purdue beat us, but lost to Wisconsin.
 

IceBoxGopher said:
Coach Fleck has the opportunity to reach nine wins, and in doing so, he’d be the first coach since Henry Williams to have three seasons with at least nine victories. I’ve seen that thrown around a lot lately, and I remember it was talked about quite a bit, too, in the 2019 season.

It’s really kind of a misleading figure, though, considering how seasons were scheduled in the early decades of college football. I think it’s safe to say that if played with modern football schedules, a lot of the teams under Bernie Bierman and Murray Warmath would have won 10+ games, if not more.

First of all, there are the obvious examples, the six national championship seasons.

Under Bierman, four of those teams went 8-0 while another went 7-1. If you tacked on more non-conference games in those seasons, considering how good they were relatively, those Bierman teams would probably be the type that go 15-0/14-1 these days.

Even in the non-national championship type seasons, there probably could have been 10-win seasons in other years. Minnesota went 6-2 in 1937 and 1938, 6-3 in 1947, and 7-2 in 1948 and 1949. During nearly all of those seasons, Minnesota played nothing but what are now Power 5 teams. Again, with modern scheduling, these types of teams would probably be the equivalent of a 10, 11 or 12 win team that plays in either a NY6 game or a Citrus Bowl.

The same can be said about Warmath’s squads. The 1960 season had nothing but Power 5 teams. In a modern schedule, that team most likely wins more than 10 games. I also think that if the national championship was on the line and the polls came out the next day, they would have beaten Washington.

The 1961 and 1967 seasons are similar. In 1961, Minnesota only played teams that are in the Power 5 today. Add on some more non-con games and that team is a 10+ win squad with a Rose Bowl victory. The 1967 team is also the type to likely get a NY6 berth and 10 wins considering it was a co-champion in the Big Ten.

I think the argument can be made that the 1954 (7-2), 1956 (6-1-2), 1962 (6-2-1) and 1968 (6-4) teams also could have earned between 9 and 11 wins with a good bowl to go to played by modern schedules.
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This has been alluded to and discussed in previous threads ad nauseam.

🥱🥱🥱🥱🥱🥱🥱🥱🥱🥱🥱
 

I wasn't really looking to compare the teams of today to those back then. I was just pointing out that it is a little off when commentators and people on social media note how there have been so few 9 to 10+ win seasons for the Gophers since 1900-1910 when the teams from the 30s-60s likely would have been relatively good enough to win more games had they played longer schedules with a post season.

Gopher_In_NYC said:
This has been alluded to and discussed in previous threads ad nauseam.

🥱🥱🥱🥱🥱🥱🥱🥱🥱🥱🥱
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Apologies. I had seen some chatter around it this past weekend and just wanted to discuss.
 



Ultimately Fleck's Big Ten winning percentage in his first six seasons is better than any Gopher Coach since Bierman. Mason had 2003, Kill/Claeys had 2016, Brew never came close, nor did Wacker, Gutey, Holtz bailed after two years. I think Fleck will have a lot of 9 win seasons in his time here. Hopefully a few more 2019 types sprinkled in as well
 

Dupreefor3 said:
Ultimately Fleck's Big Ten winning percentage in his first six seasons is better than any Gopher Coach since Bierman. Mason had 2003, Kill/Claeys had 2016, Brew never came close, nor did Wacker, Gutey, Holtz bailed after two years. I think Fleck will have a lot of 9 win seasons in his time here. Hopefully a few more 2019 types sprinkled in as well
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Yes.

Reading Gopher Hole, you can see that the one thing Fleck has done more than any other coach in recent memory is raise expectations. We Gopher fans frequently using the word disappointment to describe an 8- or 9-win season is evidence of that.
 

Panthadad2 said:
I believe it's totally appropriate (and the geek in me thinks it's fun) to compare seasons by conference win percentage. Plus, everyone seems to talk about wins, but no one wants to mention losses. If all we do is look at games won and lost and not percentages, the current 4-loss conference season isn't all that impressive.
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Even the 4-loss conference season needs some context. The 9 game Big 10 Schedule was not implemented until 2016. Also had it from 1979-84. So there is an extra opportunity for a loss.

Also this year, Gophers had 5 Big 10 Road Games, only 4 at Home. Maybe not enough to make it "impressive", but definitely not insignificant to be above .500.
 


IceBoxGopher said:
I wasn't really looking to compare the teams of today to those back then. I was just pointing out that it is a little off when commentators and people on social media note how there have been so few 9 to 10+ win seasons for the Gophers since 1900-1910 when the teams from the 30s-60s likely would have been relatively good enough to win more games had they played longer schedules with a post season.


Apologies. I had seen some chatter around it this past weekend and just wanted to discuss.
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No worries or reason to apologize for my snakiness - head colds make it easier for me to access.

From this perspective, if you look st our relative lack of recent success in my lifetime, born in 1966, it is mind boggling that we have stunk for do long.

It feels good to slap on an “M” hat on and no that I won’t have people rob me, but actually compliment the program, except when they think it’s for Michigan 🤓
 

Dupreefor3 said:
Ultimately Fleck's Big Ten winning percentage in his first six seasons is better than any Gopher Coach since Bierman. Mason had 2003, Kill/Claeys had 2016, Brew never came close, nor did Wacker, Gutey, Holtz bailed after two years. I think Fleck will have a lot of 9 win seasons in his time here. Hopefully a few more 2019 types sprinkled in as well
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I’m totally good with that; a li way from wearing a bag over my head to a game in the 80s as an homage to the Aints (Saints).
 

RememberMurray said:
Yes.

Reading Gopher Hole, you can see that the one thing Fleck has done more than any other coach in recent memory is raise expectations. We Gopher fans frequently using the word disappointment to describe an 8- or 9-win season is evidence of that.
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Indeed. My freshman year we were PUMPED to win 8 games and a trip to the Sun Bowl. First bowl game since the 1986 Liberty Bowl. Still have the t-shirt and hat I bought at the bookstore and everything. My ship had come in.

This isn't to say that because most of us remember a time when the Gophers stunk that we should always aim low. But expectations have drifted up so much that we've almost lost sight of what things were once like.

1990s me would never have believed you if you said that in 2022 the Gophers would beat Colorado by 42 points, beat (Big Ten foe) Nebraska in Lincoln yet again, win the Axe in Madison, and we would be talking on computers about how disappointing the Gopher football season was. There's a ton of progress we take for granted.

Part of this is because as we move up the zero-sum ladder of college football we say Nebraska, Colorado, and wisconsin aren't marquee wins. Eventually a team reaches CFP level and all wins that aren't in January are junk. This is a path to permanent un-fulfillment as a fan.
 
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Yep. It's all about expectations.

I bet they're extremely disappointed in Columbus, in Madison, in Tuscaloosa, in Iowa City, in East Lansing, in South Bend... on and on.
 

I have started to think this too. 9 wins is great, but compared to Kill, Fleck has gotten lucky in the sense that we no longer have to play Michigan or Michigan St every year, Nebraska is in the cellar, and Wisconsin is no longer a consistent top 15 team. It is very possible that Kill could have had back to back 9 win seasons had he coached in the East and West division schedules. Also worth noting that according to College Football Reference, this is the worst strength of schedule the Gophers have had in over a century.
 

StudentSectionMenace said:
I have started to think this too. 9 wins is great, but compared to Kill, Fleck has gotten lucky in the sense that we no longer have to play Michigan or Michigan St every year, Nebraska is in the cellar, and Wisconsin is no longer a consistent top 15 team. It is very possible that Kill could have had back to back 9 win seasons had he coached in the East and West division schedules. Also worth noting that according to College Football Reference, this is the worst strength of schedule the Gophers have had in over a century.
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Sure, Wisconsin and Nebraska were better back then, but Purdue and Illinois in the decade before Fleck were garbage compared to where they are now. It's all relative. Conference play is a zero sum game.
 

Regarding the OP, does anyone actually not know that comparing win totals before and after the 1970’s is apples/oranges?

That said apple to orange comparisons are pretty damn common in sports. The entire basis of the last 30 years of professional baseball is all about such comparisons.
 

the internet is where nuance goes to die.

I certainly hope that no one thinks that the 2019 Gopher team, or last year's team, achieved the same level of success as the National Championship teams, or the Rose Bowl teams of the early 60's.
the # of games won is one way to evaluate a season. It's not the only way to evaluate a season.

to be clear - I am NOT saying that this year's team is some massive disappointment.

But - it is possible to enjoy the victories, while also feeling at least some disappointment about losing three winnable games against divisional opponents. it was a mixed bag.

you can't reduce everything to a black-and-white, yes/no situation.
 

A big thing too is bowls. Up until the late 80s there were what 15 or so bowl games now there is maybe close to 30 or more? Also adds another game.
 



OK, I looked it up. 131 years of Gopher Football.
# of games played in a season. (includes bowl games)

4 gms -- 1 time
5 gms -- 4
6 gms -- 2
7 gms -- 14
8 gms -- 19
9 gms -- 22
10 gms -- 11
11 gms -- 29
12 gms -- 14
13 gms -- 15
14 gms -- 0
15 gms -- 1
 

RememberMurray said:
Yes.

Reading Gopher Hole, you can see that the one thing Fleck has done more than any other coach in recent memory is raise expectations. We Gopher fans frequently using the word disappointment to describe an 8- or 9-win season is evidence of that.
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It would be more accurate to say that many fans view a season with four conference losses as disappointing.
 

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