Miracle Years

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csom_1991

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For full disclosure, I attended the U and Illinois, so I know a lot about having bad seasons. But, watching Indiana and Northwestern this year put a lot into perspective for me. Last year was fairly magical as a Gopher fan while this year was forgettable. I am not 100% sold on PJ turning in a bunch of 10+ win seasons so I wanted to take stock of last year if PJ turns out to be a middling coach that never soars to those heights again. How would you rank these ‘miracle seasons’ for downtrodden in the B1G compared to Minnesota last year?

Minnesota 2019 (11-2), #10 ranking but losing WISC and Iowa and not making the B1G title game

Indiana this year (6-1), #11 ranking and blasting Michigan

Northwestern this year (6-2), and losing in the B1G title game

Illinois 2001 (10-2), losing in Sugar Bowl

Illinois 2007 (9-4), losing in the Rose Bowl

MSU 2013 (13-1), winning the Rose Bowl

MSU 2015 (12-2), losing the Cotton Bowl

Purdue 2000 (8-4), losing the Rose Bowl

Northwestern 1995 (10-2), losing the Rose Bowl – Beat #9 ND, #7 Michigan, #24 WISC (35-0), #12 PSU

Maryland 2002 (11-3), won the Peach Bowl

Rutgers 2006 (11-2), won the Texas Bowl
 

Isn't there like 2, maybe 3 coaches in the country who win 10+ games consistently? Would be great to be one of them but if that is what it will take for you to be sold on PJ, you'll never be sold on PJ.
 


csom_1991 said:
For full disclosure, I attended the U and Illinois, so I know a lot about having bad seasons. But, watching Indiana and Northwestern this year put a lot into perspective for me. Last year was fairly magical as a Gopher fan while this year was forgettable. I am not 100% sold on PJ turning in a bunch of 10+ win seasons so I wanted to take stock of last year if PJ turns out to be a middling coach that never soars to those heights again. How would you rank these ‘miracle seasons’ for downtrodden in the B1G compared to Minnesota last year?

Minnesota 2019 (11-2), #10 ranking but losing WISC and Iowa and not making the B1G title game

Indiana this year (6-1), #11 ranking and blasting Michigan

Northwestern this year (6-2), and losing in the B1G title game

Illinois 2001 (10-2), losing in Sugar Bowl

9 - A 3 loss season....elite offense...the first beneficiary of the new system of choosing who goes to rose bowl.
Illinois 2007 (9-4), losing in the Rose Bowl

MSU 2013 (13-1), winning the Rose Bowl

MSU 2015 (12-2), losing the Cotton Bowl

10 - 4 losses with one of the greatest quarterbacks in conference history
Purdue 2000 (8-4), losing the Rose Bowl

1 - one of the worst programs ever comes oNorthwestern 1995 (10-2), losing the Rose Bowl – Beat #9 ND, #7 Michigan, #24 WISC (35-0), #12 PSU

Maryland 2002 (11-3), won the Peach Bowl

11- (half the teams in the big ten could have gone 11-2 against the 2006 big East. They played 3 good teams all year and went 1-2).
Rutgers 2006 (11-2), won the Texas Bowl
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There are 11 on here. I will rate them how I see them and ignore everything in the middle
 

I think Michigan State is a bit of a different story. Dantonio had that program at a consistent level for basically a decade.
From 2010-2019, The Spartans had:
  • Six 10 win seasons.
  • Three conference titles
  • Three division titles.
  • Nine bowl berths.
  • Six bowl wins.
  • Six ranked finishes.
  • Four finishes in the top 10.
I also think it's too early to judge the Indiana season until after their bowl game. Same with Northwestern.

As for the rankings---
No. 1, 2001 Illinois, 10-2. They went into the bowl game with just one loss. They avoid the Michigan loss and they have a title shot. They managed to win pretty convincingly too, 12 point win over Ohio State, for example.
  • Ron Turner's fifth season.
  • Only regular season loss to Michigan.
  • Sugar Bowl Loss was to SEC Champion LSU, which finished the season ranked No. 8/7.
  • Previous season: 5-6.
  • Next season: 5-7

No. 2, 2019 Minnesota, 11-2. Yes this is bias, but the Gophers last year were a team that just seemed to get stronger as the year went on, and rallied after both losses.
  • PJ Fleck's third season.
  • Two losses, one to 10-3 Iowa which was ranked 15, and the other to 10-4 Wisconsin, which finished 11/13 in the polls.
  • Bowl win over No. 14 Auburn which had defeated Alabama that season.
  • Previous season: 7-6 with a bowl win.
  • Next season: 3-4* some games cancelled because of COVID.

No. 3, 2002 Maryland, 11-3. Yeah this team had three losses but all of those opponents were ranked. Many of its wins, including the bowl game, were dominant.
  • Ralph Friedgen's second season
  • All losses were to ranked teams.
  • Defeated an 8-5 Tennessee team that finished unranked.
  • Previous season: 10-2 with a bowl loss.
  • Next season: 10-3 with a bowl win.

No. 4, 1995 Northwestern, 10-2. What places this behind Maryland is the loss to Miami OH. They rebounded with a great Big Ten season though.
  • Gary Barnett's fourth season
  • Lost to an 8-2-1 Miami team.
  • Lost to PAC 10 Champion USC, finished ranked 11.
  • Previous season: 3-7-1.
  • Next season 9-3 with a bowl loss.

No. 5, 2007 Illinois, 9-4. Ranked lower because the losses piled up. Other than the Iowa loss, though, their other defeats came at the hands of solid squads.
  • Ron Zook's third season.
  • Regular season losses to Missouri, finished the season ranked 4/5, Michigan, which finished 19/18, and a 6-6 Iowa team.
  • Bowl loss to PAC 10 Champion USC, which finished ranked 2/3.
  • Previous season: 2-10.
  • Next season: 5-7

No. 6, 2006 Rutgers, 11-2. This one is more of a strength of schedule argument. Their bowl win came against an average K-State team, too.
  • Greg Schiano's sixth season.
  • Two regular season losses, one to an 8-5 Cincinnati team, the other to West Virginia, which finished 11-2 and ranked 10.
  • Defeated 7-6 Kansas State team.
  • Previous season: 7-5 with a bowl win.
  • Next season: 8-5 with a bowl win.

No. 7, 2000 Purdue, 8-4. Kinda burns knowing Minnesota has also has had plenty of 8-or-more win type seasons and yet haven't earned a Big Ten title. Drew Brees was and of course still is really good, but this team had some rough losses that hold them back from being higher.
  • Joe Tiller's fourth season.
  • Lost to a 5-7 Penn State team and a 5-6 Michigan State squad.
  • Bowl loss to Washington, PAC 10 Champion, which finished ranked 3.
  • Previous season: 7-5, with a bowl loss.
  • Next season: 6-6 with a bowl loss.
 


Fitzgerald has been pretty solid at NW - at a school that does not get many big-time recruits. Three 10-win seasons, two 9-win seasons.

Surprisingly, this season is the highest NW has been ranked in the Fitzgerald era.

I wonder how he would do at a school with more consistent high-end talent? could he work with that type of situation, or is he the kind of coach who does better with underdogs and over-achievers?
 

csom_1991 said:
I am not 100% sold on PJ turning in a bunch of 10+ win seasons so I wanted to take stock of last year if PJ turns out to be a middling coach that never soars to those heights again. How would you rank these ‘miracle seasons’ for downtrodden in the B1G compared to Minnesota last year?
Click to expand...

Could I ask for some context, please?

Can you name 5 coaches, all time, who have "turned in a bunch of 10+ win seasons"?

Which coaches are we comparing Fleck to, in that regard? Oh, and... how many is "a bunch", anyway?
 

RememberMurray said:
Could I ask for some context, please?

Can you name 5 coaches, all time, who have "turned in a bunch of 10+ win seasons"?

Which coaches are we comparing Fleck to, in that regard? Oh, and... how many is "a bunch", anyway?
Click to expand...

Sorry, I don't think I was very clear. My point being, this is very rare to win 11 games - even with the expanded schedules with added conference championship games and more bowl gams. So, if PJ does not come back to these heights, last year would probably be the pinnacle of his tenure here. So, I just wanted to compare that to the heights other non-consistent winning programs achieved over the last 20 or so years (a little longer for NW). As IceBoxGopher pointed out, these season tend to be flukes followed by middle of the pack status. I did not include Wisconsin in this list - but if I was making it 25 years ago, I would have put their Rose Bowls up there as well. They have just been the exception in being able to maintain a high level of play. The other ones show how quickly things collapse - look at Illinois. 2001 and 2007 great seasons under 2 different coaches and turmoil ever since. I hope PJ can turn in another great run or 2 over the next 5 years - but the odds are against it. I think the key will be his ability to recruit and train up QB's. If we would have had traditional Gopher QB play last year, we finish with 8 or 9 wins tops. Same situation Illinois had for their 2001 season.
 

I'll help you a little out with the whole double-digit wins by current B1G coaches, context thing:

Minnesota:

P.J. Fleck won 11 games with Minnesota in 2019, and 13 games with Western Michigan in 2016.

Next up: Iowa.

Hayden Fry, who is Iowa's version of Barry Alvarez. Fry NEVER won 11 games. He won 10 games twice: 10-2 in 1985; 10-1-1 in 1991. I'm pretty sure Fry is in the Hall of Fame.

Kirk Ferentz: Won 11 games twice, and 12 games once.

Our next contestant... Wisconsin:

Barry Alvarez: Won 11 games once. Hall of Famer, revered in Madison.

Paul Chryst: Won 11 games once, and 13 games once.

How about Michigan, the winningest program, all-time, in college football?:

Jim Harbaugh: Won 12 games once (Stanford), and has never won 11 at Michigan. 10 is his best with the Wolverines.

What's another comparable program... Northwestern, maybe?:

Pat Fitzgerald: One of the most respected B1G coaches has never won 11 games in a season. He has won 10 games in three seasons.

Well, Penn State is a blue-blood, helmet school; what about them?:

James Franklin: Won 11 games three times, the most on my list. His record at Penn State also includes two 7-win seasons and this year's 4 wins.

So... unless you want to talk about Ohio State, we're doing okay... yeah?
 



RememberMurray said:
Could I ask for some context, please?

Can you name 5 coaches, all time, who have "turned in a bunch of 10+ win seasons"?

Which coaches are we comparing Fleck to, in that regard? Oh, and... how many is "a bunch", anyway?
Click to expand...
Pretty big list actually and many of them did it when you played at least one less game. Some have done it 18 times, some 15 etc.. Saban has done it at least 12 in a row. Meyer,Dabo,Urban, bear, Bo, Bowden,McKay, Ara, Osborne, Stoops , Carroll. Paul Chryst already did it 4 times.
 

RememberMurray said:
I'll help you a little out with the whole double-digit wins by current B1G coaches, context thing:

Minnesota:

P.J. Fleck won 11 games with Minnesota in 2019, and 13 games with Western Michigan in 2016.

Next up: Iowa.

Hayden Fry, who is Iowa's version of Barry Alvarez. Fry NEVER won 11 games. He won 10 games twice: 10-2 in 1985; 10-1-1 in 1991. I'm pretty sure Fry is in the Hall of Fame.

Kirk Ferentz: Won 11 games twice, and 12 games once.

Our next contestant... Wisconsin:

Barry Alvarez: Won 11 games once. Hall of Famer, revered in Madison.

Paul Chryst: Won 11 games once, and 13 games once.

How about Michigan, the winningest program, all-time, in college football?:

Jim Harbaugh: Won 12 games once (Stanford), and has never won 11 at Michigan. 10 is his best with the Wolverines.

What's another comparable program... Northwestern, maybe?:

Pat Fitzgerald: One of the most respected B1G coaches has never won 11 games in a season. He has won 10 games in three seasons.

Well, Penn State is a blue-blood, helmet school; what about them?:

James Franklin: Won 11 games three times, the most on my list. His record at Penn State also includes two 7-win seasons and this year's 4 wins.

So... unless you want to talk about Ohio State, we're doing okay... yeah?
Click to expand...
Barry is revered for winning 3 rose bowls and dominating his rivals.
 


RememberMurray said:
I'll help you a little out with the whole double-digit wins by current B1G coaches, context thing:

Minnesota:

P.J. Fleck won 11 games with Minnesota in 2019, and 13 games with Western Michigan in 2016.

Next up: Iowa.

Hayden Fry, who is Iowa's version of Barry Alvarez. Fry NEVER won 11 games. He won 10 games twice: 10-2 in 1985; 10-1-1 in 1991. I'm pretty sure Fry is in the Hall of Fame.

Kirk Ferentz: Won 11 games twice, and 12 games once.

Our next contestant... Wisconsin:

Barry Alvarez: Won 11 games once. Hall of Famer, revered in Madison.

Paul Chryst: Won 11 games once, and 13 games once.

How about Michigan, the winningest program, all-time, in college football?:

Jim Harbaugh: Won 12 games once (Stanford), and has never won 11 at Michigan. 10 is his best with the Wolverines.

What's another comparable program... Northwestern, maybe?:

Pat Fitzgerald: One of the most respected B1G coaches has never won 11 games in a season. He has won 10 games in three seasons.

Well, Penn State is a blue-blood, helmet school; what about them?:

James Franklin: Won 11 games three times, the most on my list. His record at Penn State also includes two 7-win seasons and this year's 4 wins.

So... unless you want to talk about Ohio State, we're doing okay... yeah?
Click to expand...

I don't know why you are so fixated on the 11 wins. If that is the sum total of your measurement in ranking 'miracle seasons', then you list is pretty straight forward. Personally, I would trade that season in a heartbeat for the 10-2 seasons of 2001 Illinois or 10-2 1995 Northwestern. In all regards, those were more impressive seasons than our 11-2. Not to say our 11-2 was not spectacular - it was and that is the reason why we are comparing miracle seasons with that included. However, fixating on the final win total seems pretty pointless - I think we all would trade it for a West title or Rose Bowl.

I think you are a bit oversensitive about PJ and read negativity in every comment about him with the intensity of someone calling your baby ugly. That was not the intention of the post. As you point out, it is rare to make it to 11 wins - even with the extra games - it is rare. So, maybe PJ will turn in a bunch of additional seasons like we had last year, maybe not. Until he does, I consider last year to be our miracle year which is comparable to the miracle years of the other middling/lower end B1G teams. Until we show consistent winning (8/9 wins minimum mixed with some 10 win seasons), we are a middling B1G team regardless of how we view ourselves. I really hope this COVID season was the fluke and not last year's team, but until we accomplish something similar again on the field, last year will be considered the fluke so it is directly comparable.
 



Northwestern did well a couple of years ago. Then, they weren't so good last year. This year, they are doing great again. It is a cycle. A team that doesn't have the great depth of tOSU lost players through graduation after a good season. They have to "learn through failure" the following season with new crop of replacements.

The GOphers are going through the same cycle. I trust what PJ says about the fortunes of the team next year. They've played better in the last two games.
 

csom_1991 said:
I don't know why you are so fixated on the 11 wins. If that is the sum total of your measurement in ranking 'miracle seasons', then you list is pretty straight forward. Personally, I would trade that season in a heartbeat for the 10-2 seasons of 2001 Illinois or 10-2 1995 Northwestern. In all regards, those were more impressive seasons than our 11-2. Not to say our 11-2 was not spectacular - it was and that is the reason why we are comparing miracle seasons with that included. However, fixating on the final win total seems pretty pointless - I think we all would trade it for a West title or Rose Bowl.

I think you are a bit oversensitive about PJ and read negativity in every comment about him with the intensity of someone calling your baby ugly. That was not the intention of the post. As you point out, it is rare to make it to 11 wins - even with the extra games - it is rare. So, maybe PJ will turn in a bunch of additional seasons like we had last year, maybe not. Until he does, I consider last year to be our miracle year which is comparable to the miracle years of the other middling/lower end B1G teams. Until we show consistent winning (8/9 wins minimum mixed with some 10 win seasons), we are a middling B1G team regardless of how we view ourselves. I really hope this COVID season was the fluke and not last year's team, but until we accomplish something similar again on the field, last year will be considered the fluke so it is directly comparable.
Click to expand...

I don't believe I'm 'over-sensitive', I simply thought we were having a conversation. In the course of that conversation, I asked you a question. I'll try asking the question again, and see if you'll answer it this time:

Which teams/programs/coaches are you talking about, and comparing the Gophers to, when you made this statement:

"Until we show consistent winning (8/9 wins minimum mixed with some 10 win seasons), we are a middling B1G team regardless of how we view ourselves."

Which B1G teams are consistently winning 8/9 games mixed with 10 win seasons? You know, the teams that are above a middling B1G team.

Also, why would you trade the Gophers' 11-2 2019 season "in a heartbeat" for a 10-2 season by Illinois or Northwestern?
 
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RememberMurray said:
I don't believe I'm 'over-sensitive', I simply thought we were having a conversation. In the course of that conversation, I asked you a question. I'll try asking the question again, and see if you'll answer it this time:

Which teams/programs/coaches are you talking about, and comparing the Gophers to, when you made this statement:

"Until we show consistent winning (8/9 wins minimum mixed with some 10 win seasons), we are a middling B1G team regardless of how we view ourselves."

Which B1G teams are consistently winning 8/9 games mixed with 10 win seasons? You know, the teams that are above a middling B1G team.

Also, why would you trade the Gophers' 11-2 2019 season "in a heartbeat" for a 10-2 season by Illinois or Northwestern?
Click to expand...

Which programs " consistent winning (8/9 wins minimum mixed with some 10 win seasons)"?

I think that is fairly obvious - it is the same teams that we all know are in the top tier of the conference currently. Now, that can change - MSU and Nebraska no longer are top tier programs and Wisconsin has cemented itself in the top over the last 2 decades. So, I would consider these programs to be the top of the league:

Top:
OSU
PSU
Michigan
Wisconsin

Middling:
Iowa
Minnesota
Northwestern
Nebraska
MSU
Indiana (barely based on this year)

Bottom:
Illinois
Purdue
Maryland
Rutgers

Now, I would love for us to move up to the top of the B1G, but we have not done so an single season where, granted we won 11 games, will not get us there. We need to win consistently 8-9 games and regularly beat our rivals. We have not done this. Wisconsin has. Iowa has on occasion but they are not the top of the B1G, just historically (over the last 2 decades) they have been better than us.

My whole point of the my original post is that we ARE A MIDDLING TEAM - hopefully moving up - but we are what we are now and this past season proved it. Also, it is important to see all the other middling and lower level teams have seen equivalent miracle seasons - so, putting things into perspective, last year was great - but not unprecedented at all for the B1G teams.

Also, in response to your Hayden Fry comment - he won 10 games in 1991 - they only played 12 total and went 10-1-1. One thing to note is that every team he played was the equivalent of a BCS school - no South Dakota State included. He also beat 3 top 25 teams along the way - so, how does that compare to our 11-2 last year? I would say based on quality of work, they were better because I don't place too much emphasis on total wins vs. the body of work.

Lastly, I would have gladly traded for Illinois 2001 or NW 1995 because those resulted in a conference championship and a Rose Bowl - which used to have a lot of meaning before the playoffs kinda ruined it luster. Yes, I would gladly trade an 11-2 season in which we lost to our 2 biggest rivals and did not even when our Division much less Conference championship. I think most others would as well.

 

Ahhhhhh... I see it now. Your whole point is that we are a MIDDLING TEAM... ALL CAPS. Your words, exactly.

I think I get your drift now. Thank you.
 
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RememberMurray said:
Ahhhhhh... I see it now. Your whole point is that we are a MIDDLING TEAM... ALL CAPS. Your words, exactly.

I think I get your drift now. Thank you.
Click to expand...

We aren't? Since the start of the B1G championship game in 2011, 6 different teams have played in the game and 4 different teams have won it. We are not part of either category. You disagree with my list dividing the teams into 3 different categories? Which teams would you group differently? I just don't get your argument here. If you want to claim that we have moved into the upper echelon of the B1G, I would have to see your proof for that.
 

csom_1991 said:
We aren't? Since the start of the B1G championship game in 2011, 6 different teams have played in the game and 4 different teams have won it. We are not part of either category. You disagree with my list dividing the teams into 3 different categories? Which teams would you group differently? I just don't get your argument here. If you want to claim that we have moved into the upper echelon of the B1G, I would have to see your proof for that.
Click to expand...

I was just making sure I understood your "whole point"; and I'm very grateful you put your "whole point" IN CAPS, so I couldn't possibly miss it, or misinterpret.

Thanks! It helps a lot. Now I get you.
 

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