Minnesota Vs. New Mexico - Rate Bowl - Media Predictions

BetMGM sees Minnesota taking the win
The winning team model predicts Minnesota will win this game with 57.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The Dunkel Index predicts a 23-17 Minnesota win
The Golden Gophers won against the Wisconsin Badgers in their last game, 17-7. The Lobos beat the San Diego State Aztecs, 23-17, in their last game. Pick ATS: Golden Gophers (- 2.5). Pick OU: Under (44.5)
A dunkel is one of my favorite styles of beer, and the Dunkel Index is quickly becoming one of my favorite indexes

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The Daily Gopher (SB Nation) has Minnesota winning, 20-17
This will not be an easy game for Minnesota. New Mexico is 1-1 this season against Big Ten teams, dropping the season opener to Michigan before triggering the firing of UCLA head coach DeShaun Foster with a 35-10 win over the Bruins.

Jason Eck is a rising star in the coaching ranks and could have easily parlayed his success at Idaho and now New Mexico into filling one of the Power 4 head coaching vacancies that opened up this season. For now, he remains a Lobo — and a problem for the Gophers.

But no one loves a bowl game more than P.J. Fleck, as evidenced by his 6-0 postseason record at Minnesota.


VSIN sides with New Mexico
The Golden Gophers will undoubtedly take this game seriously, as they have been a good bowl team under Fleck. However, a good argument can be made that they’ll be the inferior squad when they take the field here.

They’re also in worse shape when looking at injuries, opt-outs, and transfers. When you combine that with the fact that we have already seen New Mexico go 2-0 ATS versus Big Ten opponents, how can you not like the Lobos?


Picks and Parlays sees a 29-17 Minnesota victory
Minnesota stands as a tough obstacle for New Mexico’s impressive six-game winning streak, with both teams set to meet in the Rate Bowl in Phoenix. Throughout this season, New Mexico has relied heavily on their offense, coming up big when it mattered most to clinch six straight victories.

As the final game of their season approaches, they’ll be hoping their offensive firepower can once again make the difference and help them finish on a high note.


Bleacher Report takes New Mexico
The Lobos quietly delivered a massive season, winning their final six games while staying competitive in all matchups, including a Week 1 game against Michigan. Against Minnesota, they'll do something similar and win as a small dog.
 

Picks and Parlays prediction of 29-17 Minnesota is closest to how I think the game will end, with Minnesota winning by 2 scores.
 

How the hell does VSN know that we are beset with "injuries, opt-outs, and transfers"?

Sounds to me like lazy analysis. Any specifics to refute this/ First hypothesis = they are dinks......
 

Randy Johnson with the Strib sees this in his Magic 8 Ball...

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This score would make for a good game to watch. Going to get some take-out fajitas to go with the locale and opponent...
 


A few more predictions out, for the last time in 2025.

The Star Tribune has Minnesota winning 24-20
The Lobos are on a six-game winning streak and have an impressive 9-3 record. The Gophers are 7-5, beat the teams they were expected to beat but lost to Ohio State, Oregon and Iowa by a combined 125-19. Those facts would tend to swing this game New Mexico’s way. Not this time, though. Running back Darius Taylor has rushed for 321 yards in two bowl games. Now in better health, he’s the difference-maker as the Gophers stretch their bowl win streak to nine games, including seven under Fleck.

The Pioneer Press sides with Minnesota, 28-24
Minnesota Offense Vs. New Mexico Defense: Minnesota’s offense is averaging 23 points a game, coming in at 98th in the country, but had more success with QB Drake Lindsey throwing it at the end of the season. The redshirt freshman completed 75% of passes in the snow and cold against the Badgers and had a four-TD game versus Northwestern. Edge: Minnesota

Minnesota Defense Vs. New Mexico Offense:
DE Anthony Smith, who was second in the Big Ten with 10½ sacks, is playing in the bowl but hasn’t announced whether he will return in 2026. …. Senior DT Deven Eastern, who is headed to the Senior Bowl in January, also is expected to play. Edge: Minnesota

Special Teams:
New Mexico’s K Luke Drzewiecki made 94% of field goals this year. Edge: New Mexico

Prediction:
The Gophers always come ready to play in the postseason, and Friday will be no different. Minnesota is a disciplined team, which will uncork a few trick plays with added prep time. New Mexico beat a Big Ten team, but 3-9 UCLA was at its nadir then.


Gopher Illustrated is predicting a 28-23 Minnesota win
On paper, this is a horrendous matchup for Minnesota's run offense. New Mexico is outstanding as a unit, but I will note that Darius Taylor has been unstoppable in his two bowl game performances. He's averaging 30.5 touches per bowl contest for 5.7 yards per touch. Behind a late Darius Taylor touchdown, Koi Perich ends the game with a Lobo heave into the end zone.

Here are the picks from Gophers on SI
Tony Lieberrt is taking Minnesota, 21-17
This game will come down to the turnover battle. New Mexico quarterback Jack Layne has nine interceptions this season, and eight of them have come in their three regular-season losses. I trust Minnesota's playmakers and desire to take bowl games seriously to be just enough to give them an eighth win of the season against a trick New Mexico squad led by head coach Jason Eck.

Joe Nelson predicts a 34-14 Minnesota win
New Mexico won nine games, but how many were against quality competition? They crushed UCLA before the Bruins got hot midway through the season, but most of their wins were by six points or less. Minnesota is a level up from the Nevadas and Colorado States of the world, and if we know anything about the Gophers, it's that they're very good when they have three-plus weeks to prepare for bowl games. Take the Gophers in a landslide.

Will Ragatz sees Minnesota winning 31-20
No one fires up the troops for a middling bowl game like P.J. Fleck. The Gophers are 6-0 in bowls since he got to Minnesota, and I fully expect them to stay perfect this week. This is a program that's built to win 6-8 games in the regular season and then win a bowl game in Arizona or Detroit or the Bronx. Drake Lindsey will build some hype for 2026 with a strong performance against the Lobos.

Jonathan Harrison picks New Mexico, 23-17
P.J. Fleck's much-talked-about bowl-winning streak comes to an end here. The Gophers never really put things together this season and ended the season in an ugly bit of form, winning just two of their last five games. This Minnesota team has also not found a way to win away from Huntington Bank Stadium once this season, and last I checked, this game is not in Minneapolis. New Mexico comes in hot, winning its last six games, and is likely to make it seven in a row going into the offseason.

Hero Sports goes with New Mexico
This is a clash between two solid defenses. Minnesota is 41st in the country in total defense with 342.2 yards per game allowed. New Mexico is in the top 50 in the nation in scoring defense (22.5 points per game allowed) and total defense (359.4 yards per game allowed).

I also believe New Mexico has enough offensive talent to pull off the upset. I think this will be a close game, but I ultimately believe the Lobos will end their fantastic season with a remarkable victory.


Athlon Sports is going with Minnesota, 23-20
Don’t expect a ton of points on Friday. However, while the offensive production might be limited, this one won’t lack for intensity or intrigue. Both teams should be motivated, with turnover margin potentially the deciding factor.

Action Network goes with New Mexico
When you look closer, it feels like Minnesota is getting credit for its name, while New Mexico is being treated like the same program from past seasons. That's simply not accurate.
We're getting a more motivated and healthier team with stronger metrics across several areas catching points.

Minnesota looks like a team limping into the postseason with a thin roster and no clear offensive identity, while New Mexico appears hungry, focused and ready to win. I don’t care about Fleck’s past success in bowl games. I’m more than happy to fade the Gophers in this spot.
 





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