Minnesota Vs. New Mexico - Rate Bowl - Media Predictions

[Ski-U-Ham]

Rock M Nation sides with Minnesota in the game.
Tough one to call. Minnesota isn’t very good, but their defense is. New Mexico isn’t very good and… well, nothing about them is. They’re just more mediocre overall than the Gophers. Still, I think this is the type of game you win if you’re a power conference team.

Sports Grid predicts a 27-21 New Mexico victory
Low-key, New Mexico is one of the most under-appreciated teams in college football. Whoever tunes into the Rate Bowl will be pleasantly surprised.

I've always found the Missouri Tigers SB Nation predictions about Minnesota and New Mexico sporting events to be spot on

 

[Schnauzer]

Rock does know New Mexico is 9-3, played Michigan tough on the road, and beat UCLA on the road right? Seems like too many people are underestimating New Mexico or think they will just mail it in. Unlike other teams, they will come out in full force, and likely dominate.

New Mexico is a good matchup for the Gophers and they may indeed win this crappy bowl game. But, the Gophers are the betting favorites and I think that is fair. Either way you are definitely drinking more Lobos kool aid than any person I have come across in my 16 years on this board.

 

[Gophergrandpa]

Yeah, I don't see what the big deal is about the receivers who entered the portal. We had 233 receptions this season. The wide receivers who hit the portal combined for 8 of them. Fame had another 12.

I think the RB situation as interesting as the WR one. With Fame having declared for the portal, he is off the roster now, right? So, with Fame and AJ Turner (season-ending injury) out, it’s Cam as first back-up and then Washington and/or Ford. True Frosh might see some significant snaps.

 

[Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0]

New Mexico is a good matchup for the Gophers and they may indeed win this crappy bowl game. But, the Gophers are the betting favorites and I think that is fair. Either way you are definitely drinking more Lobos kool aid than any person I have come across in my 16 years on this board.

He predicted Syracuse and VATech would crush the Gophers in past bowl games also. Bad takes is what he does best.

 

[Unregistered User]

New Mexico is a good matchup for the Gophers and they may indeed win this crappy bowl game. But, the Gophers are the betting favorites and I think that is fair. Either way you are definitely drinking more Lobos kool aid than any person I have come across in my 16 years on this board.

That’s because they are not a Gopher fan, likely someone from the east or south, and is just a hater. Had them on ignore for a long time and I’m pretty sure I haven’t missed much quality content from them.

 

[Schnauzer]

That’s because they are not a Gopher fan, likely someone from the east or south, and is just a hater. Had them on ignore for a long time and I’m pretty sure I haven’t missed much quality content from them.

ah, I missed that - probably because it is sort of a forgettable user name. Given that history I will add to ignore as well. Thanks.

 

[TwistingMyMelon]

Rock does know New Mexico is 9-3, played Michigan tough on the road, and beat UCLA on the road right? Seems like too many people are underestimating New Mexico or think they will just mail it in. Unlike other teams, they will come out in full force, and likely dominate.

Are you actually reading what has been posted here? The majority (a fairly lopsided one to boot) of the predictions posted here are picking New Mexico.

I'm sure those predicting this game know New Mexico's record. That information would be pretty difficult to miss.

 

[TwistingMyMelon]

I think the RB situation as interesting as the WR one. With Fame having declared for the portal, he is off the roster now, right? So, with Fame and AJ Turner (season-ending injury) out, it’s Cam as first back-up and then Washington and/or Ford. True Frosh might see some significant snaps.

There have been players in the past (although not Gophers) who have entered the portal and still played for their current team's bowl games but I don't see any indication that Fame will do that. I suspect that he didn't get the deal he wanted, or the assurances he wanted, or he just wanted to leave Minnesota.

I wondered why Fleck didn't play Washington or Ford in some of these late season games. Perhaps he intended to save them for the bowl.

 

[TwistingMyMelon]

ah, I missed that - probably because it is sort of a forgettable user name. Given that history I will add to ignore as well. Thanks.

While I have more than my fair share of people from this site on ignore, I wouldn't put this guy on ignore. Given that the Gophers are slightly favored by the betting markets, Fleck's perfect record (6-0) in bowls, and the MW conference champ losing 38-10 to Washington in the LA Bowl, I find his passionate belief that the Gophers will get stomped by UNM to be bizarre and somewhat fascinating.

 

[Schnauzer]

While I have more than my fair share of people from this site on ignore, I wouldn't put this guy on ignore. Given that the Gophers are slightly favored by the betting markets, Fleck's perfect record (6-0) in bowls, and the MW conference champ losing 38-10 to Washington in the LA Bowl, I find his passionate belief that the Gophers will get stomped by UNM to be bizarre and somewhat fascinating.

If this was his take on just this year's rate bowl - I would also find the opinion to be bizarre and somewhat fascinating. But as a couple others have pointed out this isn't an isolated opinion. Apparently this guy has felt the Gophers were going to be blown out by their previous two bowl opponents too, as well as Wisconsin every year. I read through his posting history and it comes off as subtle but consistent trolling. After that the decision to add to the ignore list was an easy one.

 

[TwistingMyMelon]

If this was his take on just this year's rate bowl - I would also find the opinion to be bizarre and somewhat fascinating. But as a couple others have pointed out this isn't an isolated opinion. Apparently this guy has felt the Gophers were going to be blown out by their previous two bowl opponents too, as well as Wisconsin every year. I read through his posting history and it comes off as subtle but consistent trolling. After that the decision to add to the ignore list was an easy one.

Thanks for the info! Well, I'll give him credit for the feigned act of concern anyway. He almost pulled it off!

 

[USAF]

Does anybody know where I can find the media bowl predictions thread?

 

[MNGoph24]

That’s because they are not a Gopher fan, likely someone from the east or south, and is just a hater. Had them on ignore for a long time and I’m pretty sure I haven’t missed much quality content from them.

If I wasn’t a Gophers fan, would I have bought these? I have more too, even from bowl games I admit I was wrong about.



I deep down hope and pray I’m wrong about the game next week as well. I hope you all laugh if the Golden Gophers end up winning and prove me wrong.

I feel like the media and fans are treating this like a cupcake non conference game. If New Mexico had the same record as Minnesota or even .500 I could see that when you factor in a power conference advantage.

However, they have two more wins than Minnesota, beaten and played tough versus two Big Ten teams on the road that Minnesota couldn’t do, and Minnesota doesn’t have many impressive victories. Add in the eventual opt outs and transfers (which are all or will be all coming from Minnesota’s side as I haven’t heard about any transfers or opt outs on New Mexico’s end of things) and the talent gap isn’t very large when you compare the teams either.

After years of Minnesota sports breaking my heart, I’m a pessimistic and also very superstitious Gopher fan. I’m even scared as the image number on my phone was an unlucky one too. So, I’m sorry if they lose, because of that and me.

 

[GooningGopher]

If I wasn’t a Gophers fan, would I have bought these? I have more too, even from bowl games I admit I was wrong about.

View attachment 40948

I deep down hope and pray I’m wrong about the game next week as well. I hope you all laugh if the Golden Gophers end up winning and prove me wrong.

I feel like the media and fans are treating this like a cupcake non conference game. If New Mexico had the same record as Minnesota or even .500 I could see that when you factor in a power conference advantage.

However, they have two more wins than Minnesota, beaten and played tough versus two Big Ten teams on the road that Minnesota couldn’t do, and Minnesota doesn’t have many impressive victories. Add in the eventual opt outs and transfers and the talent gap isn’t very large when you compare the teams either.

After years of Minnesota sports breaking my heart, I’m a pessimistic and also very superstitious Gopher fan. I’m even scared as the image number on my phone was an unlucky one too. So, I’m sorry if they lose, because of that and me.

Ok, sweatshirts prove you are a gopher fan. I don’t think you are alone in this (goofballs picking New Mexico, Wisconsin, etc) despite them being inferior teams.

You do however have a unique passion for writing treatise on why the gophers will lose — I think it’s either 1) a philosophical seppuku solidified from the years of battering via metrodome era or 2) a humiliation kink.

I suspect 2 because you do this frequently and never learn.

 

[IceBoxGopher]

Odd Shark expects a New Mexico victory
This year's Rate Bowl features New Mexico (9-3) and Minnesota (7-5). The Golden Gophers are 2.5-point favorites despite recording fewer regular-season wins, and the total for this game is 45.5 points. The Lobos are riding a six-game win streak into this bowl matchup, and I believe that momentum should help them finish their season with 10 wins.

New Mexico hasn't played a ton of elite teams during that stretch, but the Golden Gophers have been underwhelming despite average competition. New Mexico's only losses of the season came against Michigan, San Jose State, and Boise State. The San Jose State game provides a small amount of concern, but the Lobos' relative abandonment of the run game was a big factor in that defeat.

Minnesota, meanwhile, dropped contests to Cal, Ohio State, Iowa, Oregon, and Northwestern. While you could expect the Golden Gophers to drop some of those games, there are a few unfortunate drops. Their wins also haven't been particularly impressive, which doesn't help me build any confidence in them.

Outside of beating then-No. 25 Nebraska, which finished 7-5, all of Minnesota's wins came against programs that finished the campaign with losing records. I'd expect New Mexico defensive end Keyshawn James-Newby to be a big factor when Minnesota is on offense. He led the Mountain West with eight sacks, and he also tallied 13 tackles for loss and a pair of forced fumbles.

Offensively for the Lobos, look for steady quarterback play from Jack Layne to complement running backs Damon Bankston, DJ McKinney, and Scottre Humphrey, who rushed for 578, 454, and 349 yards this season, respectively. Wide receiver Keegan Johnson should also be featured plenty.

College Football News goes with Minnesota in their full prediction, 26-20
New Mexico's pass defense is just okay. The Lobos were able to get by in the Mountain West, and it barreled over UCLA, but it'll give up well over 200 yards to Lindsey, who should connect on close to 70% of his throws.

Here's the problem with that. There won't be anything downfield, and again, this Lobo defense can tackle. The Big Ten bulk and talent will come through in the second half, but Minnesota is 7-0 at home, 0-5 away from Minneapolis, and New Mexico won't go away until late.

But it's P.J. Fleck. He wins bowl games.

Rivals has New Mexico winning, 26-23
Minnesota will have moments, but New Mexico’s physicality, defensive discipline, and ability to control tempo should decide the game late. The Lobos won’t flinch, and they won’t beat themselves. New Mexico wins a close, hard-nosed bowl game.

 

[caliGopher]

There have been players in the past (although not Gophers) who have entered the portal and still played for their current team's bowl games but I don't see any indication that Fame will do that. I suspect that he didn't get the deal he wanted, or the assurances he wanted, or he just wanted to leave Minnesota.

I wondered why Fleck didn't play Washington or Ford in some of these late season games. Perhaps he intended to save them for the bowl.

Fleck not giving some reps to depth players is something he has done consistently. The only outlier I can think of was Northwestern State this year.

Particularly at running back, but at other positions as well, he tends to pick his horse and stay with it regardless of outcomes.

It's my sincere hope that DT does NOT get the majority of the carries. We have to figure out a way to get him and keep him healthy - that is more important than another nothing bowl victory.

This game does nothing for us other than perpetuate the idea that our current bowl streak is something of a significant accomplishment (now, if they were all Citrus Bowl or better, that WOULD be something), which diminishes the accomplishment that the victory over Auburn really was.

Beating the Frosh/Soph VaTech team last year, and not convincingly (but never in doubt) with many starters into the 4th quarter, is not something to brag about.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Odd Shark expects a New Mexico victory

Outside of beating then-No. 25 Nebraska, which finished 7-5, all of Minnesota's wins came against programs that finished the campaign with losing records. I'd expect New Mexico defensive end Keyshawn James-Newby to be a big factor when Minnesota is on offense. He led the Mountain West with eight sacks, and he also tallied 13 tackles for loss and a pair of forced fumbles.

We don't have much in the way of impressive victories outside of the Nebraska win but I would argue that New Mexico's 9 wins haven't exactly come against the who's who of college football.

They beat two teams with winning records - UNLV and Utah State by a combined total of 8 points. They have 1 power 4 win against UCLA before the coaching change when they were playing like complete and total garbage as opposed to the somewhat respectable garbage they played like over the remainder of the season.

I expect this to be a good game that could certainly go either way depending on which team makes the most mistakes. I just think it is interesting to look at the various ways sites use to come up with their predictions on games and how often they really aren't all that well researched.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Particularly at running back, but at other positions as well, he tends to pick his horse and stay with it regardless of outcomes.

I will agree there are times (especially on offense) where it feels like Fleck could have gone to backups and didn't in games where the outcome was decided (good or bad).

But I disagree on the regardless of outcomes part. Fans love to convince themselves there is a better option on the bench that the coach refuses to play and that belief gets pushed hard around here by a handful of posters.

Coaches at this level are going to play the guys they feel give their team the best chance to win games. Because in the end if they don't win enough games they get fired.

 

[Gopherchase]

I will agree there are times (especially on offense) where it feels like Fleck could have gone to backups and didn't in games where the outcome was decided (good or bad).

But I disagree on the regardless of outcomes part. Fans love to convince themselves there is a better option on the bench that the coach refuses to play and that belief gets pushed hard around here by a handful of posters.

Coaches at this level are going to play the guys they feel give their team the best chance to win games. Because in the end if they don't win enough games they get fired.

You know next to nothing about how choices are made on who plays and who doesn’t. There is zero chance 74 was our best option at RG this year but they played him anyway.

 

[Texan Gopher]

It appears to me that New Mexico has some key contributors from their team that have already entered the transfer portal. A good defensive back, a good offensive lineman, and a decent tight end wide receiver on running back. All look like they are transferring out and not playing. Are you guys seeing the same thing?

 

[MNVCGUY]

You know next to nothing about how choices are made on who plays and who doesn’t. There is zero chance 74 was our best option at RG this year but they played him anyway.

So my working theory is that coaches spend countless hours with the players working with them in individual and team drills and use that information to put the players they feel give them the best chance to win on the field.

But since you clearly know better....please enlighten me to what really happens.

 

[caliGopher]

I will agree there are times (especially on offense) where it feels like Fleck could have gone to backups and didn't in games where the outcome was decided (good or bad).

But I disagree on the regardless of outcomes part. Fans love to convince themselves there is a better option on the bench that the coach refuses to play and that belief gets pushed hard around here by a handful of posters.

Coaches at this level are going to play the guys they feel give their team the best chance to win games. Because in the end if they don't win enough games they get fired.

I don't disagree that the best players are on the field as starters. And I'm not saying the real studs are behind the starters.

There are times when subbing someone in for a few plays would have helped both the starter get a breather, and a young player get a feel for the game and motivation to work harder to get more.

There have been enough times in the 9 seasons Fleck has been at the helm when a handful of plays in the right situations would have helped players who had to become starters due to injuries, particularly at running back.

Fleck has seemingly refused to put in backups at QB and RB throughout his tenure. There is absolutely no reason that Drake Lindsey couldn't have played in the second half of last year's bowl game.

VT was brutally bad on offense. Our offensive starters did jack all in the second half.

Why not put the future on the field in the second half of a meaningless bowl game?

Is it possible that Drake Lindsey might have had a chance to get real on-field experience that would have helped him be prepared for this year?

Any reason why DT was carring the ball in ball in the 4th quarter?

And I have a good idea of why Fleck does this - but it's a missed opportunity every single time.

You can give a few players 5-15 plays over the course of some games that wouldn't significantly affect the outcome and would make both the starters and backups better.

 

[MNVCGUY]

I don't disagree that the best players are on the field as starters. And I'm not saying the real studs are behind the starters.

There are times when subbing someone in for a few plays would have helped both the starter get a breather, and a young player get a feel for the game and motivation to work harder to get more.

There have been enough times in the 9 seasons Fleck has been at the helm when a handful of plays in the right situations would have helped players who had to become starters due to injuries, particularly at running back.

Fleck has seemingly refused to put in backups at QB and RB throughout his tenure. There is absolutely no reason that Drake Lindsey couldn't have played in the second half of last year's bowl game.

VT was brutally bad on offense. Our offensive starters did jack all in the second half.

Why not put the future on the field in the second half of a meaningless bowl game?

Is it possible that Drake Lindsey might have had a chance to get real on-field experience that would have helped him be prepared for this year?

Any reason why DT was carring the ball in ball in the 4th quarter?

And I have a good idea of why Fleck does this - but it's a missed opportunity every single time.

You can give a few players 5-15 plays over the course of some games that wouldn't significantly affect the outcome and would make both the starters and backups better.

I don't disagree....they have done a good job over the years of rotating on defense but for whatever reason they don't do the same at QB and RB. The benefit of those garbage time reps can be debated but I definitely wouldn't mind seeing us go to the backups on offense more when the game is no longer in doubt.

 

[FinnGopher]

I'm looking forward to Casa de Casa tire commercials.

 

[Gopherchase]

So my working theory is that coaches spend countless hours with the players working with them in individual and team drills and use that information to put the players they feel give them the best chance to win on the field.

But since you clearly know better....please enlighten me to what really happens.

Kid that came in with me as as a freshman back in the day only came to my school because he was pissed that Nebraska didn’t offer him because they assumed he was gonna come as a preferred walk on. He was head and shoulders the best player his position, but never got any time because there was a senior who had been waiting in the wings. Transfers to Nebraska and becomes an all American and is in their Hall of Fame. There are other examples I have just from my own experiences for kids that either got breaks, or didn’t and should have. It happens all the time. You generally don’t know anything about any of this kind of stuff but think you do it makes me chuckle.

 

[TwistingMyMelon]

If I wasn’t a Gophers fan, would I have bought these? I have more too, even from bowl games I admit I was wrong about.

View attachment 40948



I feel like the media and fans are treating this like a cupcake non conference game.

The fact that you keep repeating that line is incomprehensible. The substantial majority of media predictions posted here are picking New Mexico. Do you have some kind of faulty brain that is incapable of absorbing information that is contrary to your preferred narrative?

As far as the Gopher Hole fans, yes, most expect us to win and there are defensible reasons for believing that including ---

1) The Gophers are a slight, but steady, favorite by the betting markets.

2) Fleck is 6-0 in bowls.

3) The Mountain West champion (Boise) who defeated New Mexico by 41-25 was beaten 38-10 by Washington in the LA Bowl. Washington was a better team than the Gophers this season but they're not anywhere close to OSU, Indiana, or Oregon and probably not as good as Iowa.

4) Most of the major quantitative rankings have New Mexico rated below Minnesota. I found only one (Colley Matrix) that ranks New Mexico above the Gophers. I'm not dismissing that index but it appears to weight record more than other indexes so that would explain New Mexico's higher standing there. Still, that only rates New Mexico six places above the Gophers.

 

[Gophers1992]

Rock does know New Mexico is 9-3, played Michigan tough on the road, and beat UCLA on the road right? Seems like too many people are underestimating New Mexico or think they will just mail it in. Unlike other teams, they will come out in full force, and likely dominate.

In your limited post history, you predicted a 42-10 loss to Virginia Tech, a 45-10 loss to Wisconsin this year, and a 34-10 loss to New Mexico now. I suppose you are bound to get one right eventually but you may be a touch pessimistic.