Minnesota Vs. Nebraska 2021 - Media Predictions Thread

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UpAndUnder43 said:
But against not shit teams Nebraska offense has struggled. I’ve broken it down in here this week on threads you started.
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They put up 431 yards against Michigan, and 442 against MSU. Also it would make sense that their numbers wouldn't be as good against better teams, that's generally how things work.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
No way the Gophers win a shootout.

The catch-22 for the Gophers - to keep it close and keep Nebraska's offense off the field, the Gopher offense needs to control the ball and win time of possession - BUT they have to do that with - at best - their #3 (or lower) RB carrying the ball.

so, unless one of the young RB's goes nuts and runs for 100+, I think the passing game has to be a major factor. Gophers don't have to throw it 25 yards down the field - just hit some 8-10 yd routes to keep the sticks moving and keep the defense honest.

in other words, the Gophers' best chance of winning hinges on Fleck and Sanford changing their game plan.

Sorry, I don't see that happening. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the Gophers come out with an entirely different offensive approach. But I won't believe it until I see it.
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Another chance for the Gophers would be for Nebraska to turn it over 2 or 3 times in their own territory, giving our limited offense a few chances to score on a short field (ala Iowa).
 

Gophers1992 said:
They put up 431 yards against Michigan, and 442 against MSU. Also it would make sense that their numbers wouldn't be as good against better teams, that's generally how things work.
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Post #30 considers Michigan and MSU shit defenses. High standards!
 

BetSided is going with a Minnesota win
Yes, Minnesota is down their top two running backs after it was announced that Trey Potts would be out the rest of the year, but this is a Cornhuskers defense that is 82nd in defensive success rate.

I’m expecting offensive coordinator Mike Sanford to take the extra week to attack the Nebraska defense through the air. The team has their No. 1 receiver, Chris Autumn-Bell, fully up to speed after missing time this season, which should open up the passing game against a Nebraska team that is allowing opponents to complete nearly 62% of passes.

Meanwhile, Nebraska has injuries along the offensive line and are hyper dependent on quarterback Adrian Martinez to do everything, both as a passer and runner. Martinez is the teams leading rusher.

However, it may be tough sledding against the Golden Gophers defense that is 35th in defensive success rate and allowing less than three yards per rush. If Martinez is going to have to make plays downfield that may spell trouble against a strong Minnesota secondary.

Not to mention, Nebraska has the fifth worst special teams unit, per S&P+ this season, while Minnesota has a kicker in Matthew Trickett, who has made a 50 yarder this season and an above average punter in Mark Crawford. In a game with a low total, field position will be paramount.

Give me the home team at 4 or above.

Pick: Minnesota +4
 

Gophers1992 said:
They put up 431 yards against Michigan, and 442 against MSU. Also it would make sense that their numbers wouldn't be as good against better teams, that's generally how things work.
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How many points did they score. MSUs defense ranks poorly nationally.
 


UpAndUnder43 said:
How many points did they score. MSUs defense ranks poorly nationally.
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MSU isn’t that great defensively. Michigan (23rd in overall defense) and the Gopher (20th in overall defense) are nearly identical in yards allowed, etc. The Gophers have a very good defense this year. It certainly has the ability to diminish Martinez’s effect on the game. And if our defense plays a good, complete game, I like our chances. If our defense can’t corral Martinez, I still think we can play with Nebraska in a foot race if we fully utilize our passing talents to create a balanced, non-predictable offensive attack. But if our defense stumbles, and we once again marginalize our passing game talent on offense, Nebraska goes home with the chair and a bunch of sh@t eating grins.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
MSU isn’t that great defensively. Michigan (23rd in overall defense) and the Gopher (20th in overall defense) are nearly identical in yards allowed, etc. The Gophers have a very good defense this year. It certainly has the ability to diminish Martinez’s effect on the game. And if our defense plays a good, complete game, I like our chances. If our defense can’t corral Martinez, I still think we can play with Nebraska in a foot race if we fully utilize our passing talents to create a balanced, non-predictable offensive attack. But if our defense stumbles, and we once again marginalize our passing game talent on offense, Nebraska goes home with the chair and a bunch of sh@t eating grins.
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I agree. Really need to limit martinez legs. He is due for a stinker.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
I agree. Really need to limit martinez legs. He is due for a stinker.
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If our defense can contain Martinez, or we use a spy who can actually run with Martinez, Nebraska’s firepower drops dramatically. The fact that Nebraska relies so heavily on Martinez for its rushing attack as well in the passing game gives rise to a potential vulnerability that most offenses don’t suffer from. Rossi & Co. can really make this happen …
 

I'll never forget Scott Frost's quote after the Illinois loss this year, "they showed some stuff we didn't prepare for & we had to throw out our gameplan."

If we show new stuff we win 27-17

If we continue to play the way we have & be predictable it'll be 42-20 Huskers.
 



Random lurking on some Husker boards has the fans at least confident THIS is the game where it comes together against a challenged Gophers offense.

Most seeing a 2 TD spread going the Huskers' way.

If we can get Martinez to throw it might remain close for Special Forces and a working offense to pull it off. If Nebbie can run on us that will not be good.
 

FWIW, a bunch of media members and podcasts hosts were all over Nebraska to beat Michigan last week too. I think the fact that it almost happened (a fumble away from OT at worse) contributes to all the Nebraska picks this week.

I am very concerned about the Gopher offense and still skeptical that the Gopher defense is as good as their rankings suggest it is. That said, we all see the flaws in the team we follow most closely and maybe don't look at the opposition with the same critical eye.

I'd love to see Morgan go like 23-30 for 300 yards with Irving and another back splitting about 28 carries between them and looking good running in a much more balanced attack. If they could get a win in that manner, the rest of the season gets a whole lot more interesting. That's not a prediction, just a wish.
 


EG#9 said:
FWIW, a bunch of media members and podcasts hosts were all over Nebraska to beat Michigan last week too. I think the fact that it almost happened (a fumble away from OT at worse) contributes to all the Nebraska picks this week.

I am very concerned about the Gopher offense and still skeptical that the Gopher defense is as good as their rankings suggest it is. That said, we all see the flaws in the team we follow most closely and maybe don't look at the opposition with the same critical eye.

I'd love to see Morgan go like 23-30 for 300 yards with Irving and another back splitting about 28 carries between them and looking good running in a much more balanced attack. If they could get a win in that manner, the rest of the season gets a whole lot more interesting. That's not a prediction, just a wish.
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The common theme in all the predictions is that Nebraska has been playing solid but coming up short and NOBODY (including our fanbase) has any clue what we are going to look like on Saturday.

You would have to be very brave or very foolish to wager any money on any of our games right now because there are so many potential outcomes.
 



I find it so hard not to use 2019 as a guide for this football team. If you remove that they have.

1 good loss -- Ohio State
1 terrible loss - Bowling Green
1 terrible win - Miami of Ohio
2 good wins - Purdue, Colorado

Compared to Nebraska:
3 Great losses - Michigan, MSU and OK (losing to ranked opponent by 1 score or less)
1 terrible loss - Ill.
3 good wins - NW, Fordham, Buffalo - did what they were supposed to do to bad teams.

If you remove the Ill. game Nebraska has been relatively consistent. They play solid offense and defense, but not great at either. They do what they need to do against bad competition and give themselves a chance to win against good competition. While my hope and prayer is that MN puts it together, I can see why many media types don't agree. Neb right now is the more consistent team.
 

Michigan beat Nebraska 32-29, and it has been stated that Michigan’s defense is statistically similar to ours. I believe that we can hold Nebraska to 29 points, but how many people are confident our offense will score 30 or more points? Keep in mind that Michigan’s offense also relies primarily on the run and controls time of possession.
 

gophernut1 said:
I find it so hard not to use 2019 as a guide for this football team. If you remove that they have.

1 good loss -- Ohio State
1 terrible loss - Bowling Green
1 terrible win - Miami of Ohio
2 good wins - Purdue, Colorado

Compared to Nebraska:
3 Great losses - Michigan, MSU and OK (losing to ranked opponent by 1 score or less)
1 terrible loss - Ill.
3 good wins - NW, Fordham, Buffalo - did what they were supposed to do to bad teams.

If you remove the Ill. game Nebraska has been relatively consistent. They play solid offense and defense, but not great at either. They do what they need to do against bad competition and give themselves a chance to win against good competition. While my hope and prayer is that MN puts it together, I can see why many media types don't agree. Neb right now is the more consistent team.
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Only parts of that I would take issue with are calling the Miami Ohio game a terrible win and referring to their losses to ranked teams as great losses. We played a terrible 3rd quarter but no win is ever a terrible win, I don't care who it is against. In the same token I don't think there is such a thing as a great loss. Their losses to ranked teams fall in line with our loss to Ohio State.
 

matt said:
Michigan beat Nebraska 32-29, and it has been stated that Michigan’s defense is statistically similar to ours. I believe that we can hold Nebraska to 29 points, but how many people are confident our offense will score 30 or more points? Keep in mind that Michigan’s offense also relies primarily on the run and controls time of possession.
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The Gophers and Michigan have very similar defensive stats (good stats). And, yes, Michigan runs the offense Fleck wants to run. But here's a difference: In 6 games, Michigan has averaged 440.5 yards per game and has scored a total 231 points. In 5 games, the Gophers have averaged 334.5 yards and have scored only 122 points. If averages to date maintain, we lose to Nebraska 30-24 or so. If we control Nebraska a little better than Michigan did, and our offense becomes a little more varied and explosive, the tables can turn.
 

There's two factors that aren't being discussed. Nebraska hasn't won on the road this year and fleck Always seems to have his teams ready when they come out of bye weeks or layoffs before bowl games. Nebraska seems to be coming into this game expecting to win after an encouraging LOSS to Michigan, and that seems to be the thinking of the writers. But they still have to do it on the road. Not going to happen. We are solid on defense and special teams and somehow find enough offense to win a tight one.
 


IceBoxGopher said:
Whiners and Whiners has Minnesota winning the game.
We’re looking at a couple of stiff defenses in this contest so offense could come at a premium. Nebraska has scored 223 points in seven games but 108 of those came in wins over Fordham and Northwestern. The Cornhuskers have totaled 87 points in their four losses, though all have come by eight points or less.

With that said, Nebraska has to contend with a Minnesota defense that has forced nine turnovers in five games. The Golden Gophers hold the opposition to 77 yards a game and 2.8 yards per carry on the ground. That’s Nebraska’s bread and butter offensively: Martinez isn’t as effective if the run game is sputtering. This is going to be a close game: with home field advantage, take the points and the Golden Gophers in this contest.

Prediction: Minnesota Golden Gophers +3.5
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UpAndUnder43 said:
But against not shit teams Nebraska offense has struggled. I’ve broken it down in here this week on threads you started.
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Disagree, the best D they've played was Michigan. And they had around 400 yds of offense. If anything, Nebby has played better D's than the Gophers, outside of the OSU game.

Both teams have very good D's. Inconsistent QB play. Gophers offense tends towards pedestrian right now, Nebraska's offense is like a Jaguar, either humming or self-destructing.

Each has a terrible loss and some quality losses. Neither has beaten anyone of note. Unfortunately, a win for either team also won't really count as a quality win either, given where both teams are so far on the season.
 

TheCasualGopher said:
Disagree, the best D they've played was Michigan. And they had around 400 yds of offense. If anything, Nebby has played better D's than the Gophers, outside of the OSU game.

Both teams have very good D's. Inconsistent QB play. Gophers offense tends towards pedestrian right now, Nebraska's offense is like a Jaguar, either humming or self-destructing.

Each has a terrible loss and some quality losses. Neither has beaten anyone of note. Unfortunately, a win for either team also won't really count as a quality win either, given where both teams are so far on the season.
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Yards. Do. Not. Matter. Putting up yards and not scoring points isn’t helpful.
 



At MLive, three writers are going with Nebraska and one is predicting a Minnesota win.
Nebraska seems perpetually on the verge of turning the corner, but never quite can do it. Their four losses this season have all been by a touchdown or less, including to three teams currently ranked in the top 10.

Minnesota bounced back nicely from an embarrassing road loss to Bowling Green and will be coming off of a bye, but is 1-2 at home and 2-0 on the road.

Gopher Illustrated is predicting a 21-20 Minnesota victory
It's an absolutely huge game for both Minnesota and Nebraska on Saturday.

Nebraska believes they're much better than their 3-4 record shows and if the Huskers are going to get to a bowl game, this has to be a win in Minneapolis with Ohio State, Wisconsin and Iowa all still on the schedule.

Minnesota is sitting at 3-2, but now has lost their top two tailbacks and hasn't yet put together a complete game. If Minnesota can get the win at home here, you can see a path to 7-2 before Iowa with vs. Maryland, @Northwestern and vs. Illinois in the next three games.

I waited until late on Thursday night to make this pick, as I've been debating it all week. But ultimately, I do think the Minnesota passing offense does enough to get the Gophers the home win. I've also seen Scott Frost's teams not play up to their capabilities the last two years against Minnesota, and while I believe they'll play better on Saturday, I also think the bye week before this one and Minnesota getting this at home proves to be the big thing in the end.

All of the writers at the Daily Nebraskan are taking the Gophers
Landon Wirt, senior sports editor: Nebraska 28-13.
Nebraska’s talent, both defensively and offensively, should shine through against a shorthanded Minnesota team in the end, and I believe a hungry Husker team in must-win mode will bring the physicality and discipline needed to snap Fleck’s two-game winning streak over Nebraska head coach Scott Frost.

Martin Herz, assistant sports editor: Nebraska 27-10.
Minnesota is coming off its bye week but lost Potts, its most productive offensive player by far, and appears to not have an answer for its starting running back. Morgan is not the threat that he was in 2019, as he’s completed just 52% of his passes and ranks eighth in the Big Ten in adjusted yards per pass attempt. In the end, Frost should notch his first road victory in October, meaning Nebraska enters the bye week 4-4.

Jason Han, assistant sports editor: Nebraska 21-10.
Almost all the factors, whether it be talent, current form or coaching nous point to a Nebraska victory. In fact, there’s only a few factors which point the Golden Gophers’ way.

For one, there’s the history of the fixture. In recent memory, Frost’s experiences against Minnesota have been rather mixed. The team was blown out in 2019, but that was an exceptional year for Fleck’s team. The more inexcusable game was last December, where a poor, near-decimated Minnesota team still managed to outlast the Huskers.

That being said, the team in question was led mostly off the efforts of a running back who is out for the season. The game should be categorically easy for the Huskers, but once Minnesota starts to creep in with some momentum, particularly if the game is within a few scores heading into the fourth, this is also when Nebraska can prove its mettle.
 
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TheCasualGopher said:
Checks notes, 29 pts against Michigan. Also, we scored ... 10 against Bowling Green.

They average 31/game. We average 24/game.
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I didn’t say the gophers offense is good. You’re changing the conversation to fit your narrative.

check their PPG against Oklahoma, MSU and Illinois. Not exactly three world beating defenses.
The gophers offense being anemic is a different conversation.
 

The prez sez said:
There's two factors that aren't being discussed. Nebraska hasn't won on the road this year and fleck Always seems to have his teams ready when they come out of bye weeks or layoffs before bowl games. Nebraska seems to be coming into this game expecting to win after an encouraging LOSS to Michigan, and that seems to be the thinking of the writers. But they still have to do it on the road. Not going to happen. We are solid on defense and special teams and somehow find enough offense to win a tight one.
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11:00 start time makes for an interesting wrinkle as well. Their last two games have been night games which have an entirely different lead up and energy level to them. Much harder to get excited for an 11:00 start time, especially when you are not used to getting started that early.

Will be crucial that we avoid getting down big early. If we can keep things tight I like our chances of coming away with the victory.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
No way the Gophers win a shootout.

The catch-22 for the Gophers - to keep it close and keep Nebraska's offense off the field, the Gopher offense needs to control the ball and win time of possession - BUT they have to do that with - at best - their #3 (or lower) RB carrying the ball.

so, unless one of the young RB's goes nuts and runs for 100+, I think the passing game has to be a major factor. Gophers don't have to throw it 25 yards down the field - just hit some 8-10 yd routes to keep the sticks moving and keep the defense honest.

in other words, the Gophers' best chance of winning hinges on Fleck and Sanford changing their game plan.

Sorry, I don't see that happening. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the Gophers come out with an entirely different offensive approach. But I won't believe it until I see it.
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SO true!!!! The Gopher coaches really have no excuse as they have had the week off and they have the game at home. I have a strong feeling they are going to come into this game with the same offensive game plan as they have had each game this year. The offense has been lackluster and now they are down to their #3 RB. They had better be flexible and start trying some new things because their old same ol same ol isn't going to fly against anyone with a half decent offense and defense. The honest truth is they were very fortunate to come out of that Purdue game with a win - the statistics look like they should have lost that game by a minimum of 10 points!!

I tell you one thing - unless they change things up (and you will know very soon in that game what their gameplan is) they are not coming out of this with a win. The sad truth is their game plan against Auburn a couple years ago rocked and they have not had anything even close to that since. I do not enjoy watching this offense struggle -- they need to fix things and with two weeks to prepare I do not want to hear any excuses if they try the same thing again.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
I didn’t say the gophers offense is good. You’re changing the conversation to fit your narrative.

check their PPG against Oklahoma, MSU and Illinois. Not exactly three world beating defenses.
The gophers offense being anemic is a different conversation.
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No you said this:
UpAndUnder43 said:
But against not shit teams Nebraska offense has struggled.
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I pointed out that against Michigan they put up over 400 yds of offense and scored 29 pts. Is Michigan a shit team?? I rest my case.

Back to your original point. That against not shit teams, Nebraska's offense isn't good (this doesn't hold up by the way Top 50 scoring O, Total O, Explosive Plays, Yards Per Completion, etc.). Both teams have a good D, the difference is we have the weaker O, and it came against weaker competition to date. We need Nebraska to hurt itself (something they are prone to do), but if both teams play their best game, and mistake free, it favors Nebraska. Ugh
 

In 2019, the 2 games off the bye Tanner Morgan threw 3 incomplete passes, total.

Maybe the bye will jump-start him for the season.
 

The Star Tribune has Nebraska winning 24-20
The Gophers will win if the running game doesn't miss a beat without Trey Potts and controls the game's tempo, the passing game surpasses 200 yards for the first time since the opener, the defense limits Nebraska's chunk plays and Mark Crawford continues to pin opponents inside their own 20-yar line.

The Huskers will win if Martinez breaks free for a couple of long runs and doesn't cough up the football, running back Rahmir Johnson provides an effective complement to Martinez and the Blackshirts defense wins the battle up front against a veteran Gophers offensive line.

The Pioneer Press is picking the Gophers to win 27-25
Nebraska coach Scott Frost said in July he didn't need "sloganeering" for his program, and that was interpreted as a swipe at P.J. Fleck's slew of catch phrases. But something needs to change as the Cornhuskers fall to 0-4 on the road this season.
 

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