Minnesota Vs. Illinois - 2024 Media Predictions

[IceBoxGopher]

New week, new game, new predictions.

Dimers has Minnesota winning the game 24-22
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven college football model predicts Minnesota as the most likely winner of the game. Our leading predictive model gives Minnesota a 54% chance of beating Illinois

Clutch Points is picking Illinois to win the game
For our final prediction, we have to side with Illinois to get this win and cover the spread. They're 5-2 ATS on the season and while the Golden Gophers are 6-1-1 ATS, they've gone just 2-5 in their last seven games on the road. We're getting a ranked team at a solid price so let's roll with Illinois to win the game.

USA Today is predicting a 24-22 Minnesota victory
The Golden Gophers played the Maryland Terrapins in their last game, winning 48-23. Their last time out, the Fighting Illini lost 38-9 to the Oregon Ducks. The Golden Gophers are the favorites (-3) in their matchup against the Fighting Illini, with the over/under at 45 points.

 

[TwistingMyMelon]

New week, new game, new predictions.

Dimers has Minnesota winning the game 24-22
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven college football model predicts Minnesota as the most likely winner of the game. Our leading predictive model gives Minnesota a 54% chance of beating Illinois

Clutch Points is picking Illinois to win the game
For our final prediction, we have to side with Illinois to get this win and cover the spread. They're 5-2 ATS on the season and while the Golden Gophers are 6-1-1 ATS, they've gone just 2-5 in their last seven games on the road. We're getting a ranked team at a solid price so let's roll with Illinois to win the game.

USA Today is predicting a 24-22 Minnesota victory
The Golden Gophers played the Maryland Terrapins in their last game, winning 48-23. Their last time out, the Fighting Illini lost 38-9 to the Oregon Ducks. The Golden Gophers are the favorites (-3) in their matchup against the Fighting Illini, with the over/under at 45 points.

All three of our wins against conference teams have been precious this season but winning this one would be the most precious to date.

 

[IceBoxGopher]

College Football News is predicting a 24-21 Illinois win
Minnesota doesn’t have a running game. It’s a different team than past versions under PJ Fleck, and that’s going to be a problem in this.

Recent Gopher teams could pound the ball and control the clock; this one doesn’t do that. On the flip side, Illinois has a big problem against the run, but that won’t be a giant concern here. To hammer this home triple-hard, the team that wins the turnover battle takes this home.

Sports Chat Place is going with Minnesota to win
I’m on Minnesota here. I get the allure of backing a home underdog, but Minnesota’s really started to hit their stride and it kind of feels like Illinois might be one of the more fraudulent 6-2 teams you’ll see, narrowly getting by Purdue of all teams and getting beat up in their step up spot against Oregon.

Minnesota’s on a roll right now and I think the Gophers keep it going as they get another win and cover on the road here.

Big Al’s Sports Picks is taking Illinois, 20-13
The current betting odds have Illinois listed as a 3 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Illinois has looked really good in their games this season with their 6-2 record overall and their 3-2 conference record.

Their conference record has them in the middle of the Big Ten with no real chance at getting to the Big Ten Championship, but their 2 losses were against Penn State and Oregon who are both 2 of the best teams in the nation.

They have looked great in their home games this season too with their 5-0 home record. Meanwhile, Minnesota has looked good in their games this season with their 5-3 record overall and their 3-2 conference record.

They haven't really had a tough schedule though and a majority of their games have been at home too. They are only 1-1 in their road games and the only 2 teams they have faced this season that were ahead of them in the conference were both losses.

Minnesota doesn't have a great offense and they will struggle to move the ball against this Illinois defense that has looked great all season. Illinois is also coming off a loss to the 1st ranked team in the nation so they will be looking to bounce back now that they are back at home.

Sports Illustrated picked Illinois
Illinois is being underrated after an unsurprising loss at Oregon last week. The team will face a Minnesota team that has had some good fortune of late, beating a pass-happy USC in a windstorm, pulling out a nail-biter against UCLA, and befitting from turnovers from Maryland to get an inflated score line.

I don’t trust the Golden Gophers traveling to Illinois to face a formidable passing game, led by Luke Altmyer, that is top third of the country in EPA/Pass and may be the most effective one that Minnesota has faced.

The Daily Gopher (SB Nation) has Illinois winning 20-17
The Gophers have struggled on the road this season, especially in the first half. They scored a combined three points in the first half against Michigan and UCLA in their two previous road trips.

They can’t afford to start slow against an Illinois team that wants to control the clock and dictate the tempo of the game. But the stat that haunts me is Bret Bielema’s 10-0 career record against Minnesota.

Even when the Fighting Illini were bad in 2021 and 2023, they found a way to beat the Gophers. I don’t know what kind of black magic Bert conjures when he plays Minnesota, but I’d be a fool to bet against it. Prove me wrong, P.J.

 

[MNVCGUY]

College Football News is predicting a 24-21 Illinois win
Minnesota doesn’t have a running game. It’s a different team than past versions under PJ Fleck, and that’s going to be a problem in this.

Recent Gopher teams could pound the ball and control the clock; this one doesn’t do that. On the flip side, Illinois has a big problem against the run, but that won’t be a giant concern here. To hammer this home triple-hard, the team that wins the turnover battle takes this home.

Sports Chat Place is going with Minnesota to win
I’m on Minnesota here. I get the allure of backing a home underdog, but Minnesota’s really started to hit their stride and it kind of feels like Illinois might be one of the more fraudulent 6-2 teams you’ll see, narrowly getting by Purdue of all teams and getting beat up in their step up spot against Oregon.

Minnesota’s on a roll right now and I think the Gophers keep it going as they get another win and cover on the road here.

Big Al’s Sports Picks is taking Illinois, 20-13
The current betting odds have Illinois listed as a 3 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Illinois has looked really good in their games this season with their 6-2 record overall and their 3-2 conference record.

Their conference record has them in the middle of the Big Ten with no real chance at getting to the Big Ten Championship, but their 2 losses were against Penn State and Oregon who are both 2 of the best teams in the nation.

They have looked great in their home games this season too with their 5-0 home record. Meanwhile, Minnesota has looked good in their games this season with their 5-3 record overall and their 3-2 conference record.

They haven't really had a tough schedule though and a majority of their games have been at home too. They are only 1-1 in their road games and the only 2 teams they have faced this season that were ahead of them in the conference were both losses.

Minnesota doesn't have a great offense and they will struggle to move the ball against this Illinois defense that has looked great all season. Illinois is also coming off a loss to the 1st ranked team in the nation so they will be looking to bounce back now that they are back at home.

Sports Illustrated picked Illinois
Illinois is being underrated after an unsurprising loss at Oregon last week. The team will face a Minnesota team that has had some good fortune of late, beating a pass-happy USC in a windstorm, pulling out a nail-biter against UCLA, and befitting from turnovers from Maryland to get an inflated score line.

I don’t trust the Golden Gophers traveling to Illinois to face a formidable passing game, led by Luke Altmyer, that is top third of the country in EPA/Pass and may be the most effective one that Minnesota has faced.

The Daily Gopher (SB Nation) has Illinois winning 20-17
The Gophers have struggled on the road this season, especially in the first half. They scored a combined three points in the first half against Michigan and UCLA in their two previous road trips.

They can’t afford to start slow against an Illinois team that wants to control the clock and dictate the tempo of the game. But the stat that haunts me is Bret Bielema’s 10-0 career record against Minnesota.

Even when the Fighting Illini were bad in 2021 and 2023, they found a way to beat the Gophers. I don’t know what kind of black magic Bert conjures when he plays Minnesota, but I’d be a fool to bet against it. Prove me wrong, P.J.

Some odd takes from Big Al and Sports Illustrated.

Illinois has looked great at home? - they beat 2-6 Kansas by 6 and had to go to OT to beat Purdue and gave up 49 points in the process to a 1-6 team that has been held under 10 points in 4 of their 6 loses this season.

Our USC game was apparently played in a windstorm

Illinois passing offense is apparently one of the best in the country....at least they are in EPA/Pass I guess because when you compare their passing game to the rest of the conference they certainly don't come across as some great passing offense. Both USC and Maryland strike me as more dangerous passing offenses than Illinois but apparently some obscure advance stat says otherwise. Gotta love those analytics.

I fully expect a battle against Illinois this weekend and the game could go either way. But some of these takes just strike me as really odd and lazily written.

 

[TwistingMyMelon]

I fully expect a battle against Illinois this weekend and the game could go either way. But some of these takes just strike me as really odd and lazily written.

In other words, about par for the course in these times of Web-based hackery.

Lots of praise about Illinois' passing offense (for the record, I think they are a pretty good passing team) but silence about our passing defense which actually is one of the best in the country by statistical metrics. It's not like we haven't faced prolific conference passing teams this season. All three of our conference wins were against heavy passing teams. It's the really good rushing teams that give us fits (including USC - thank God they didn't run more).

 

[MNVCGUY]

In other words, about par for the course in these times of Web-based hackery.

Lots of praise about Illinois' passing offense (for the record, I think they are a pretty good passing team) but silence about our passing defense which actually is one of the best in the country by statistical metrics. It's not like we haven't faced prolific conference passing teams this season. All three of our conference wins were against heavy passing teams. It's the really good rushing teams that give us fits (including USC - thank God they didn't run more).

Yeah, seems like if you are going to praise their passing game our conference leading 15 INT might at least deserve a mention in terms of our ability to defend them.

They have a really good QB in Altmyer so I have no doubt that their passing offense will be effective but it doesn't strike me as nearly as explosive as USC and Maryland were and our secondary is very much a strength of our defense.

 

[IceBoxGopher]

Sports Grid is taking Illinois, 23-20
Minnesota (-2.5) vs. No. 24 Illinois: This is an interesting one to look at. I'll happily take the points with the home underdog and look for Illinois to show up.

At USA Today, four writers are picking Minnesota to win, while two are taking Illinois

 

[IceBoxGopher]

The Pioneer Press is going with Minnesota, 31-24
Minnesota Offense Vs. Illinois Defense: The U hasn’t run the ball nearly as well as years past, but the Illini are nowhere near as stout at DT as last year with Jer’zhan Newton and Keith Randolph. Edge: Gophers

Minnesota Defense Vs. Illinois Offense: CBs Justin Walley and Ethan Robinson have proven they are up to the task against top WRs in the conference. Edge Gophers

Prediction: The Gophers passing game is humming and should have success in the run game against Illinois. The U is healthier and Illinois just doesn’t feel like a legit Top 25 team.

College Football Network is predicting a Minnesota win, 27-20
If both teams protect the football, it’ll come down to one thing: third-down success. Minnesota ranks 17th nationally with a 47.0% third-down conversion rate, while Illinois struggles, allowing opponents to convert 45.0% of the time — 116th in the nation.
With QB Max Brosmer firing on all cylinders (70% completion rate or higher in his last three games) and RB Darius Taylor primed to exploit a subpar run defense (Illinois ranks 78th, allowing 154.8 rushing yards per game), the road favorite looks poised to win and cover in this one.

Athlon Sports writers are split
Josh Skluzacek is taking Illinois in the game, 28-24
Illinois may be ranked 24th but this may be the toughest matchup of the season so far for the Gophers. If the offense keeps clicking and the defense can create takeaways, Minnesota definitely has a chance but I think Illinois’ run game will be too much and will snap the Gophers’ winning streak.

Tommy Wiita is picking Minnesota to win, 31-30
The Gophers are rolling and have the uttermost confidence in themselves. Two out of the three losses they've endured could have gone the other way easily and this is one of the those games where every possession matters. The Gophers have learned from their past mistakes and get another upset on the road on Saturday.

 

[stocker08]

All three of our wins against conference teams have been precious this season but winning this one would be the most precious to date.

Beating #11 USC at home would be hard to top. But getting the Bielma monkey off our back would be nice.

Also....SVP picked Minnesota -3 on Sportscenter last night.