Midweek Field of 68 Projection, Ken/Pom/ + RPI Based

[SelectionSunday]

All at-large teams are in the top 75 of both the KenPom and RPI rankings. Number in parentheses is team's combined KenPom/RPI average ranking.

FIELD OF 68 (through games played Dec. 12)
America East (1): Vermont (64.5)

American (4): *Wichita State (8), Temple (28), Cincinnati (37.5), SMU (47.5)

ACC (9): Duke (3.5), North Carolina (7), Virginia (11.5), Florida State (28), Miami (30.5), Clemson (35), Notre Dame (39), Syracuse (39.5), *Boston College (82.5)

Atlantic Sun (1): Lipscomb (80)

Atlantic 10 (1): Rhode Island (36)

Big East (6): *Villanova (4), Xavier (15), Seton Hall (20), Saint John's (33.5), Butler (40.5), Creighton (41)

Big Sky (1): Portland State (111)

Big South (1): NC-Asheville (144)

B1G (5): *Michigan State (3), Purdue (14.5), Michigan (29.5), Gophers (45.5), Ohio State (46)

Big XII (6): *West Virginia (12), Kansas (13), TCU (15), Texas Tech (23.5), Oklahoma (30.5), Iowa State (51.5)

Big West (1): UCSB (88)

Colonial (1): Towson (65)

Conference USA (1): Middle Tennessee (40)

Horizon (1): Northern Kentucky (114)

Ivy (1): Penn (116.5)

MAAC (1): Iona (128.5)

MAC (1): Ball State (92.5)

MEAC (1): Morgan State (221)

Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa (48)

Mountain West (2): *Nevada (26.5), Boise State (51.5)

Northeast (1): Saint Francis-Pa (176.5)

Ohio Valley (1): Jacksonville State (118.5)

Pac 12 (3): *Arizona State (18), Arizona (23.5), USC (41.5)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (115.5)

SEC (9): *Texas A&M (5.5), Tennessee (15), Arkansas (19), Kentucky (25), Missouri (27), Alabama (32.5), Florida (42), South Carolina (48.5), Auburn (49)

Southern (1): Mercer (102.5)

Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin (128)

SWAC (1): Texas Southern (208)

Summit (1): South Dakota (99.5)

Sun Belt (1): Georgia Southern (60)

WCC (1): Gonzaga (24.5)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (99.5)
___________________________________

Last 4 In: South Carolina (48.5), Auburn (49), Iowa State (51.5), Boise State (51.5)

First 4 Out: Utah (52), Maryland (54.5), Houston (56), Providence (57)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (4): Temple (28), Cincinnati (37.5), SMU (47.5), Boise State (51.5)

Next 12: Mississippi State (60.5), Virginia Tech (64), Old Dominion (66), Georgia (67), San Diego State (68), Fresno State (69), Saint Mary's (110), Baylor (111), Texas (122), Marquette (135), UCLA (143), Saint Bonaventure (144)

NCAA Seed
#1
Michigan State (3)
Duke (3.5)
Villanova (4)
Texas A&M (5.5)

#2
North Carolina (7)
Wichita State (8)
Virginia (11.5)
West Virginia (12)

#3
Kansas (13)
Purdue (14.5)
TCU (15)
Xavier (15)

#4
Tennessee (15)
Arizona State (18)
Arkansas (19)
Seton Hall (20)

#5
Arizona (23.5)
Texas Tech (23.5)
Gonzaga (24.5)
Kentucky (25)

#6
Nevada (26.5)
Missouri (27)
Florida State (28)
Temple (28)

#7
Michigan (29.5)
Miami (30.5)
Oklahoma (30.5)
Alabama (32.5)

#8
Saint John's (33.5)
Clemson (35)
Rhode Island (36)
Cincinnati (37.5)

#9
Notre Dame (39)
Syracuse (39.5)
Middle Tennessee (40)
Butler (40.5)

#10
Creighton (41)
USC (41.5)
Florida (42)
Gophers (45.5)

#11
Ohio State (46)
SMU (47.5)
Northern Iowa (48)
South Carolina (48.5) -- LAST 4 IN
Auburn (49) -- LAST 4 IN

#12
Iowa State (51.5) -- LAST 4 IN
Boise State (51.5) -- LAST 4 IN
Georgia Southern (60)
Vermont (64.5)
Towson (65)

#13
Lipscomb (80)
Boston College (82.5)
UCSB (88)
Ball State (92.5)

#14
New Mexico State (99.5)
South Dakota (99.5)
Mercer (102.5)
Portland State (111)

#15
Northern Kentucky (114)
Bucknell (115.5)
Penn (116.5)
Jacksonville State (118.5)

#16
Stephen F. Austin (128)
Iona (128.5)
NC-Asheville (144) -- FIRST 4
Saint Francis-Pa (176.5) -- FIRST 4
Texas Southern (208) -- FIRST 4
Morgan State (221) -- FIRST 4

 

[Seauville]

That's pretty wild that the SEC has 9 teams in if this were the final board. Not disputing whether they should, just not used to seeing so many of them in.

More importantly, I think this goes without being said but I'm going to be all sorts of disappointed if we finish as low as a 10-seed this season.

 

[SelectionSunday]

This version kind of a hybrid, mixing it up. More about the analytics & metrics than my personal opinion. Auburn an example of a team I wouldn't have in, but both RPI and KenPom like Tigers pretty well. South Carolina, too.

 

[Gold Vision]

Sagarin is very low on the gophers. Has us missing the tournament with a 9-9 conference record.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Consensus KenPom/KPI/RPI: On Trek for NCAA Tournament

Three rankings I'll lean heavily on when selecting my final "Field of 68" projection in March are #KenPom/#KPI, and #RPI. Currently there are 39 teams those 3 metrics agree are of NCAA caliber, determined by taking the highest ranked team from each of the 32 conferences, followed by the next 36. Starting next week I'll list the KenPom/KPI/RPI consensus every Monday, the idea being to provide a glimpse of which teams we're most likely to see in the NCAA Tournament.

Here's what we have now. Listed alphabetically, each team's RPI rank is listed in parentheses. The Gophers on the list, but just barely.

KenPom/KPI/RPI Consensus (through Dec. 13)
1 Alabama (#27)
2 Arizona (#28)
3 Arizona State (#3)
4 Arkansas (#9)
5 Clemson (#40)
6 Creighton (#46)
7 Duke (#2)
8 Florida State (#31)
9 Georgia Southern (#35)
10 Gonzaga (#38)
11 Iona (#127)
12 Kansas (#20)
13 Kentucky (#36)
14 Miami-Florida (#45)
15 Michigan (#21)
16 Michigan State (#1)
17 Middle Tennessee (#13)
18 Minnesota (#49)
19 Nevada (#16)
20 North Carolina (#6)
21 Northern Kentucky (#140)
22 Oklahoma (#32)
23 Penn (#105)
24 Purdue (#23)
25 Rhode Island (#24)
26 Seton Hall (#26)
27 South Dakota (#74)
28 Tennessee (#7)
29 Texas A&M (#10)
30 TCU (#8)
31 Texas Tech (#44)
32 Towson (#29)
33 UCSB (#34)
34 Vermont (#56)
35 Villanova (#5)
36 Virginia (#18)
37 West Virginia (#12)
38 Wichita State (#11)
39 Xavier (#17)

Notable Exclusions (ranked in AP Top 25)
#21 Baylor (#86 in RPI)
#22 Florida (#58 in RPI)
#25 Cincinnati (#61 in RPI)