Mid-Summer Field of 68 Projection Feeling the SEC As Best Top-to-Bottom Conference

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SelectionSunday

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My mid-summer Field of projection has the Big Ten, Big XII, and SEC leading the way with 9 NCAA Tournament bids apiece. Top to bottom, I’d currently rank the Power 5 conferences this way:

1 SEC (I don’t think it has a single totally crap team among its 16, not even Vanderbilt)
2 Big Ten (an argument could be made all but 3 of the 18 have NCAA potential)
3 Big XII (1 to 10 Dy-No-Mite, but there’s too much “meh” from 11-16)
4 ACC (will be much improved, but I think absolute max-out is 8 bids)
5 Big East (UConn & Creighton elite, and a bunch of solid teams, but Georgetown & DePaul are heavy anchors)

Of note, I have 13 of the 18 Big Ten teams either in the field or earning some kind of mention. The 5 left out are Maryland, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, and Washington.

For this projection we’ll use Bart Torvik’s current summer rankings, which considers projected contributors, transfers, freshmen, and coaching changes. An * denotes the projected automatic qualifier in a multiple-bod conference.

FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (August 3, 2024)
America East (1): Vermont (104)

American (1): Memphis (26)

ACC (6): *Duke (2), North Carolina (6), Wake Forest (32), Pitt (51), Louisville (62), Georgia Tech (96)

ASUN (1): Jacksonville (218)

Atlantic 10 (2): VCU (52), *Saint Joseph’s (80)

Big East (5): UConn (12), *Creighton (13), Saint John’s (15), Marquette (25), Xavier (37)

Big Sky (1): Weber State (168)

Big South (1): High Point (101)

Big Ten (9): *Purdue (16), Michigan State (17), Illinois (19), UCLA (24), Indiana (31), Michigan (33), Ohio State (34), Oregon (43), Nebraska (47)

Big XII (9): Houston (1), Iowa State (3), *Kansas (4), Arizona (10), Baylor (14), Texas Tech (20), BYU (28), Cincinnati (29), Kansas State (30)

Big West (1): UC-San Diego (145)

Coastal (1): UNC-Wilmington (169)

Conference USA (1): Louisiana Tech (111)

Horizon (1): Milwaukee (166)

Ivy (1): Cornell (172)

MAAC (1): Marist (215)

MAC (1): Ohio (121)

MEAC (1): NCCU (232)

Missouri Valley (1): Bradley (95)

Mountain West (3): New Mexico (54), Nevada (59), *Boise State (69)

NEC (1): Wagner (254)

OVC (1): Little Rock (271)

Patriot (1): Colgate (202)

SEC (9): Tennessee (5), Auburn (7), *Alabama (8), Texas (11), Texas A&M (21), Kentucky (23), Florida (35), Arkansas (36), Ole Miss (39)

SoCon (1): Samford (126)

Southland (1): McNeese (65)

SWAC (1): Texas Southern (236)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (191) -- Saint Thomas (173) wins Summit Tournament but ineligible

Sun Belt (1): Arkansas State (106)

WCC (2): *Gonzaga (9), Saint Mary’s (38)

WAC (1): Grand Canyon (55)
_________________
Last 4 In: BYU (28), Nebraska (47), VCU (52), New Mexico (54)

First 4 Out: Rutgers (18), Mississippi State (22), Providence (60), UAB (82)

A Dozen to Watch: Miami-Florida (27), Wisconsin (41), Villanova (44), Iowa (45), Clemson (46), TCU (49), USC (50), Oklahoma (56), Notre Dame (68), San Francisco (84), Washington State (86), Seton Hall (92)

Non-Power 5 At-Large Bids (4): Saint Mary’s (38), VCU (52), New Mexico (54), Nevada (59)
 
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I’m interested in your thoughts about leaving Rutgers out, despite a high preseason computer rank. I suspect it’s because their best talent was playing HS last year, but there are only 2 B10 teams ranked above them (and only one and two spots ahead at that).
 

formerlybis said:
I’m interested in your thoughts about leaving Rutgers out, despite a high preseason computer rank. I suspect it’s because their best talent was playing HS last year, but there are only 2 B10 teams ranked above them (and only one and two spots ahead at that).
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Correct.

I can’t go all in on a team whose best 2 players likely will be freshmen. Especially now as experience seems to be the trend. Will be an interesting team to follow.
 


You said you don't think the SEC has any total crap teams. Missouri went winless in conference last year, do you see them being substantially better, a tough game for the Gophers to win?
 


Cayman said:
You said you don't think the SEC has any total crap teams. Missouri went winless in conference last year, do you see them being substantially better, a tough game for the Gophers to win?
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The general consensus is Mizzou will be greatly improved this season. Maybe that’s not saying much after an 0-18 campaign, but we’ll see. I expect them & Vandy to be competitive.
 

SelectionSunday said:
The general consensus is Mizzou will be greatly improved this season. Maybe that’s not saying much after an 0-18 campaign, but we’ll see. I expect them & Vandy to be competitive.
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They added some nice guards in Jason Edwards from North Texas, AJ Hoggard from Michigan State and Grant Huffman from Davidson. This portal is something else.
 

San Diego St lost a ton. Not much incoming? On paper with very little research by me I'd agree they are do for a fall, but I heard a couple minute interview with Dutcher where he expects no drop-off due to tradition, culture, system etc
Interested to see if they do stay near the top of the Mountain West.
 




60's Guy said:
San Diego St lost a ton. Not much incoming? On paper with very little research by me I'd agree they are do for a fall, but I heard a couple minute interview with Dutcher where he expects no drop-off due to tradition, culture, system etc
Interested to see if they do stay near the top of the Mountain West.
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Their culture is defense first and that will keep them conference level competitive all the time even if not second weekend competitive. I’m not betting against them.
 

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