Media predictions for Saturday's game

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Gopher07 said:
BTN: http://btn.com/2014/10/08/week-7-see-our-predictions-for-all-five-big-ten-football-games/

Sean Merriman: Minnesota 17 Northwestern 14
Marcus Fuller: Minnesota 24, Northwestern 20
Brent Yarina: Northwestern 23, Minnesota 20
Tom Dienhart: Minnesota 17, Northwestern 14
Fans: Minnesota 59%

Others (ESPN, CFN) TBD
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These guys should be required to make their predictions on GH's Predict the Score contest, where we have 3 of 5 perfect score predictions, the most impressive was dannygopher9100, 14 years old, and needed his dad's permission. Danny's dad is a good dad!
 

ESPN:

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Why Minnesota will win: Northwestern is riding a wave of confidence, and the Wildcats won by making both Penn State and Wisconsin one-dimensional on offense. Minnesota, then, is in similar danger because of its lack of a passing game. Yet the Gophers had a bye week to rest up workhorse back David Cobb, and their defense will give the Wildcats trouble. Jerry Kill's team is playing with confidence as well, and the combination of its physicality and home-field advantage will be enough to slip by in a close one. Minnesota 20, Northwestern 17 -- Brian Bennett

Why Northwestern will win: I recognize the symbolism of Minnesota's victory at Michigan -- big for the program, big for recruiting -- but Northwestern's wins against an undefeated Penn State and a one-loss Wisconsin carry far more weight than beating the nosediving Wolverines. Northwestern is hitting its stride, particularly on defense, and faces a Minnesota team with a similar profile to Wisconsin (great run attack, weak pass attack, strong defense). The bye week factor is vastly overplayed, and Northwestern typically plays well on the road, especially for early kickoffs. These are two evenly matched teams with solid defense and the ability to run the ball. But Northwestern has a little more balance on offense and gets a close win in Minneapolis. Northwestern 21, Minnesota 20 -- Adam Rittenberg

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/108781/big-ten-week-7-predictions
 

Will Harris of ESPN Insider:

Minnesota Golden Gophers -3.5 versus Northwestern Wildcats

A bye week to get healthier and move past a rare victory over Michigan was just what Minnesota needed. The Gophers must play Ohio State from the East division, and draw Nebraska and Wisconsin on the road to close the year. But despite the schedule, we wouldn't count this team out of the West race just yet. Northwestern's defense looks as good as 2008's fine unit, but the offense is broken, and the league's lowest-rated, full-time passer will have a tough time finding the end zone against a Gophers defense that leads the Big Ten in both first downs and third down conversions allowed.

Pick: Minnesota
Score: Minnesota 17, Northwestern 9

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/cha...blue-devils-best-week-7-bets-college-football

Go Gophers!!
 

Of course Ritty had to stick with his alma mater. No surprise there.
 


Gopher07 said:
ESPN:

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Why Minnesota will win: Northwestern is riding a wave of confidence, and the Wildcats won by making both Penn State and Wisconsin one-dimensional on offense. Minnesota, then, is in similar danger because of its lack of a passing game. Yet the Gophers had a bye week to rest up workhorse back David Cobb, and their defense will give the Wildcats trouble. Jerry Kill's team is playing with confidence as well, and the combination of its physicality and home-field advantage will be enough to slip by in a close one. Minnesota 20, Northwestern 17 -- Brian Bennett

Why Northwestern will win: I recognize the symbolism of Minnesota's victory at Michigan -- big for the program, big for recruiting -- but Northwestern's wins against an undefeated Penn State and a one-loss Wisconsin carry far more weight than beating the nosediving Wolverines. Northwestern is hitting its stride, particularly on defense, and faces a Minnesota team with a similar profile to Wisconsin (great run attack, weak pass attack, strong defense). The bye week factor is vastly overplayed, and Northwestern typically plays well on the road, especially for early kickoffs. These are two evenly matched teams with solid defense and the ability to run the ball. But Northwestern has a little more balance on offense and gets a close win in Minneapolis. Northwestern 21, Minnesota 20 -- Adam Rittenberg

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/108781/big-ten-week-7-predictions
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I am anxiously waiting for the 'Adam Rittenberg is a dink' thread to show up soon.
 

Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0 said:
I am anxiously waiting for the 'Adam Rittenberg is a dink' thread to show up soon.
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and Brian Bennett is no longer a dink since he picked Minnesota but as soon as he takes some sort of perceived shot at the Gophers he will be a dink again.
 

scools12 said:
and Brian Bennett is no longer a dink since he picked Minnesota but as soon as he takes some sort of perceived shot at the Gophers he will be a dink again.
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Bennett only picked the Gophers to win by 3 which won't be enough for some here. They'll still think he's a dink.
 

I'm not going to take issue with picking Northwestern, but being good at 11 AM starts doesn't seem like a serious statistic. I don't know if they are especially good on the road, they were 2-3 on the road each of the past two seasons. The bye week may be a bigger factor than he thinks. But we will see

Sent from my LG-L38C using Tapatalk 2
 



RodentRampage said:
I'm not going to take issue with picking Northwestern, but being good at 11 AM starts doesn't seem like a serious statistic. I don't know if they are especially good on the road, they were 2-3 on the road each of the past two seasons. The bye week may be a bigger factor than he thinks. But we will see

Sent from my LG-L38C using Tapatalk 2
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Last time we hosted NW it was off a bye week. We received the opening kickoff yet somehow their RB scored a TD 4 seconds into the game and they kept us at arm's length all day. Forget about the bye week that is a tool for lazy sportswriters to have an angle and nothing more. In that case we were "rusty". Had we run back the KO for a TD we'd have been "rested". It's garbage.
 

golden boy said:
Last time we hosted NW it was off a bye week. We received the opening kickoff yet somehow their RB scored a TD 4 seconds into the game and they kept us at arm's length all day. Forget about the bye week that is a tool for lazy sportswriters to have an angle and nothing more. In that case we were "rusty". Had we run back the KO for a TD we'd have been "rested". It's garbage.
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Kill, who had 3-4 players get healthy during that "tool for lazy sportswriters", would disagree.
 

I'm sure he would and I'm sure Pat Fitzgerald publicly maintained to the end that Tim Brewster had very well-coached teams, but the proof is in the pudding. Off a bye, Jerry Kill led gopher teams are just like regular Kill led Gopher teams in the aggregate.

Maybe we were lucky that really important players play this week who wouldn't have last week. For sure if Wells get's better that will be great for us. But for me long-term actual results weigh far heavier than the "eye test" or any coach speak.
 

golden boy said:
I'm sure he would and I'm sure Pat Fitzgerald publicly maintained to the end that Tim Brewster had very well-coached teams, but the proof is in the pudding. Off a bye, Jerry Kill led gopher teams are just like regular Kill led Gopher teams in the aggregate.

Maybe we were lucky that really important players play this week who wouldn't have last week. For sure if Wells get's better that will be great for us. But for me long-term actual results weigh far heavier than the "eye test" or any coach speak.
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Understood, who could compare getting Leidner, Williams, Epping and Cobb healthy with your long-term, one game analysis. :eek:

http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_26681347/gophers-football-after-bye-week-rest-attention-turns
 



I love how 90% of all media predictions are 3 to 14 points and never has the winning team with more than 31 points. That goes for all football games since the beginning of time
 

Minnesota Football Game Predictions: Northwestern Wildcats

By Matt Humbert 

Mathematical predictions for all important contest between Minnesota and Northwestern, arguably one of the three games that will decide the Big Ten West. Time to batten down the hatches.

Models

Hey yo:

I'm always making tiny little adjustments to the models during the season, largely because I want to experiment and see if tinkering will improve performance, or have the output data make a little more sense.

Click on the link below to see Matt’s latest numbers

http://www.thedailygopher.com/2014/...otball-game-predictions-northwestern-wildcats
 

Losing a game after a bye week doesn't imply that there was no advantage to the bye week. With a bye week, there is extra time for players to get healthy.
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247Sports: http://247sports.com/Article/Big-Ten-game-predictions-Week-7-31873858

Northwestern (3-2, 2-0) at Minnesota (4-1, 1-0)

Time, TV: Noon, BTN
Line: Minnesota -4
Over/Under: 43.5

Setting the Scene: The home field hasn’t been much of an advantage in this series recently. The Wildcats have won three straight on the road against Minnesota and are 2-0 against the Gophers in TCF Bank Stadium, posting a 21-13 win in 2012 and a 29-28 victory in 2010. The Gophers won at Northwestern 20-17 last season. Minnesota was off last week and won at Michigan rather handily in its last game. The Wildcats have won three in a row, including conference games against Wisconsin and Penn State, after starting the season 0-2.

Prediction: Minnesota 21, Northwestern 20
ATS: Northwestern covers
Over/Under: Under

Fun Fact: Northwestern and Minnesota are tied with a +6 turnover ratio, second in the conference behind Michigan State’s +10. … Minnesota offensive coordinator Matt Limegrover was a graduate assistant for Northwestern’s Big Ten championship teams in 1995 and 1996.
 

RodentRampage said:
Losing a game after a bye week doesn't imply that there was no advantage to the bye week. With a bye week, there is extra time for players to get healthy.
Sent from my LG-L38C using Tapatalk 2
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...as well as time to, potentially, get rusty, lose momentum, over-think gameplans, increase nerves, etc.

While having a bye week can absolutely change the outcome of a team's performance, it is completely overrated as to an "advantage". In fact, it may be a significant disadvantage. The article linked here may be getting slightly dated, but this is the information that matters:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703673604575550133637891028
 

CFN: http://cfn.scout.com/2/1462079.html

Northwestern (3-2) at Minnesota (4-1) Oct. 11, 12:00, BTN

Here's The Deal: Is this … is this … is this possibly going to determine the Big Ten West title in some way, shape or form? No, can it? Probably not, since both teams still have to play Nebraska and Iowa, and Minnesota has to deal with Wisconsin, but the Badgers can’t throw, and the rest of the division outside of the Huskers might be gettable. But first things first, one of these two has to become the team that’ll start to make a big Big Ten splash and become part of the discussion.

Minnesota pasted Michigan, caused the entire university to meltdown after the Shane Morris incident, and now sits at -1 with Purdue and Illinois coming up next. All of a sudden, that blowout loss to TCU doesn’t seem so bad now. The Gophers won last year in a strange game – Northwestern controlled things, but found a way to lose – breaking a string a of three straight Wildcat wins.

It’s not like Northwestern was great against Wisconsin, but the running game worked, the defense took advantage of the disastrous Badger quarterback situation, and now, after an 0-2 sky-is-falling start, there’s a 2-0 record and a three game winning streak with Nebraska coming to Evanston next week.

Why Northwestern Might Win: The Minnesota passing game started to pick it up against Michigan, but it’s still not anything to get excited about. The Northwestern secondary gave the Badgers nightmares last week, and it should be able to generate at least two picks. Mitch Leidner was extremely careful with the ball and the passing game against the Wolverines, mainly because he didn’t have to take any chances. He’ll have to throw once in a while, and that could play into the hands of a defense that’s not allowing just 16 points a game giving up 27 points over the last three weeks.

Why Minnesota Might Win: To beat Minnesota, you have to be strong up front and have to stop the run before the back can get to the second level. Melvin Gordon went ballistic for the Badgers last week as the Wildcats gave up 284 yards on the ground and close to eight yards per pop. The overall stats are misleading, since Penn State can’t run a lick, but this isn’t a good run D, and it’s about to get hammered on by David Cobb and the running of Leidner. With two weeks off to rest up and get ready, the Gopher offensive front is about to start blasting away. However …

Who To Watch Out For: Northwestern suddenly figured out that life is much better when the running game is working. Trevor Siemien is an okay passer and a decent veteran quarterback, but he needs help to balance things out. Freshman Justin Jackson had been okay, but the coaching staff started to feed him the ball more, and the offense suddenly became steadier. The points haven’t been coming, but with 33 carries for 162 yards last week, the O is improving.

What’s Going To Happen: Minnesota won’t make the mistakes Wisconsin did. This will be a low scoring battle, but the Gophers will control the clock and should score early enough to make the Wildcats press. First one to 21 wins.

Prediction: Minnesota 24 … Northwestern 17
Line: Minnesota -4 o/u: 43
Must Watch Factor: 5: Last Week Tonight – 1: Bad Judge … 3
 

CFN said:
that blowout loss to TCU doesn’t seem so bad now.
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CFN doesn't know what it's talking about. Anyone who knows anything knows that losing to a top 10 team is just as bad as losing to Appalachian St.

CFN said:
Northwestern controlled things, but found a way to lose
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False. If anything, it was almost the exact opposite. The Gophers controlled things and somehow won by only 3 points. The Gophers held the ball close to 60% of the time, and Northwestern had about 180 yards of offense through the first three quarters. They had a long TD drive and scored with 2 minutes left to pull close, or it could've very easily been a double-digit victory.
 

New York Post has Gophers by 4 over Wildcats!!

Greetings from Puerto Rico my fellow Gopher fans. The New York Post is about the only tabloid that is in english. Everything else is in spanish. Will find the game on the BTN somewhere out here! Go Gophers!!:clap::clap::clap::clap:
 

Gopher07 said:
CFN: http://cfn.scout.com/2/1462079.html

Northwestern (3-2) at Minnesota (4-1) Oct. 11, 12:00, BTN

Here's The Deal: Is this … is this … is this possibly going to determine the Big Ten West title in some way, shape or form? No, can it? Probably not, since both teams still have to play Nebraska and Iowa, and Minnesota has to deal with Wisconsin, but the Badgers can’t throw, and the rest of the division outside of the Huskers might be gettable. But first things first, one of these two has to become the team that’ll start to make a big Big Ten splash and become part of the discussion.

Minnesota pasted Michigan, caused the entire university to meltdown after the Shane Morris incident, and now sits at -1 with Purdue and Illinois coming up next. All of a sudden, that blowout loss to TCU doesn’t seem so bad now. The Gophers won last year in a strange game – Northwestern controlled things, but found a way to lose – breaking a string a of three straight Wildcat wins.

It’s not like Northwestern was great against Wisconsin, but the running game worked, the defense took advantage of the disastrous Badger quarterback situation, and now, after an 0-2 sky-is-falling start, there’s a 2-0 record and a three game winning streak with Nebraska coming to Evanston next week.

Why Northwestern Might Win: The Minnesota passing game started to pick it up against Michigan, but it’s still not anything to get excited about. The Northwestern secondary gave the Badgers nightmares last week, and it should be able to generate at least two picks. Mitch Leidner was extremely careful with the ball and the passing game against the Wolverines, mainly because he didn’t have to take any chances. He’ll have to throw once in a while, and that could play into the hands of a defense that’s not allowing just 16 points a game giving up 27 points over the last three weeks.

Why Minnesota Might Win: To beat Minnesota, you have to be strong up front and have to stop the run before the back can get to the second level. Melvin Gordon went ballistic for the Badgers last week as the Wildcats gave up 284 yards on the ground and close to eight yards per pop. The overall stats are misleading, since Penn State can’t run a lick, but this isn’t a good run D, and it’s about to get hammered on by David Cobb and the running of Leidner. With two weeks off to rest up and get ready, the Gopher offensive front is about to start blasting away. However …

Who To Watch Out For: Northwestern suddenly figured out that life is much better when the running game is working. Trevor Siemien is an okay passer and a decent veteran quarterback, but he needs help to balance things out. Freshman Justin Jackson had been okay, but the coaching staff started to feed him the ball more, and the offense suddenly became steadier. The points haven’t been coming, but with 33 carries for 162 yards last week, the O is improving.

What’s Going To Happen: Minnesota won’t make the mistakes Wisconsin did. This will be a low scoring battle, but the Gophers will control the clock and should score early enough to make the Wildcats press. First one to 21 wins.

Prediction: Minnesota 24 … Northwestern 17
Line: Minnesota -4 o/u: 43
Must Watch Factor: 5: Last Week Tonight – 1: Bad Judge … 3
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But, but, but, our superior advanced stats analytics department at NW says NW dominated the Wisconsin run game on D. How can this be?! #takes
 

Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0;948718[B said:
]I am anxiously waiting for the 'Adam Rittenberg is a dink' thread to show up soon[/B].
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Check the Wildcat site. They think he's a genius.
 

Detroit News - Bob Wojnowski

■Northwestern at Minnesota: It's a showdown for first place in the Big Ten's West, and I'm not even kidding. The Gophers have been swilling from little brown jugs for two weeks, while the Wildcats have beaten the Nittany Lions and Badgers. Again I ask, what world are we living in? Minnesota 27-21
 

Iceland12 said:
Detroit News - Bob Wojnowski

■Northwestern at Minnesota: It's a showdown for first place in the Big Ten's West, and I'm not even kidding. The Gophers have been swilling from little brown jugs for two weeks, while the Wildcats have beaten the Nittany Lions and Badgers. Again I ask, what world are we living in? Minnesota 27-21
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Come to think of it, it does seem a bit Twilight Zone like for this game to be for first place.
 

dpodoll68 said:
CFN doesn't know what it's talking about. Anyone who knows anything knows that losing to a top 10 team is just as bad as losing to Appalachian St.



False. If anything, it was almost the exact opposite. The Gophers controlled things and somehow won by only 3 points. The Gophers held the ball close to 60% of the time, and Northwestern had about 180 yards of offense through the first three quarters. They had a long TD drive and scored with 2 minutes left to pull close, or it could've very easily been a double-digit victory.
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Yeah, this isn't the first time someone has said Northwestern was in control that game or that we "squeaked" out a victory. That just isn't true. If Eric Murray doesn't get called for a BS PI penalty Minnesota wins the game 20-10. We were in complete control, especially in the 2nd half.
 

Off Tackle Empire (B1G blog): http://www.offtackleempire.com/2014/10/10/6955679/picks-or-gtfo-ote-staff-calls-week-7

Straight-Up: Minnesota, 7-4 || Against the Spread: Minnesota, 6-4-1 || O/U: U, 4-3

Aaron Yorke: The Northwestern defense is real, guys. NU 20-17

Andrew Kraszewski: I'll take the Gophs to cover. We all know, after all, that TCF Bank is one of the largest home-field advantages in all of college football. I'm also going to wait one more week before I start Sippin' on Purple. You still lost to NIU and Cal (please, I dare you, try to claim that Cal is much better than we all thought on the basis of their triumphs over Wazzu and Colorado. I DARE YOU).

DJ Carver: Northwestern has given me no reason to doubt them after the past two weeks. They win outright.

Jesse Collins: Look at it this way Northwestern, I've picked against you for the past two weeks and that's worked out pretty great. I think Minnesota wins this by 4 after Northwestern blows a 17 point 4q lead. Fun times! Minny 28 - NW 24

Graham Filler: Mini wins, covers

C.E. Bell: This game is an absolute toss-up.....except for the fact that Northwestern has the Purple Messiah (my son) on its side. He's never seen Northwestern lose a game, and Northwestern has not lost in TCF Bank Stadium (2-0). Also, two questions: (1) who has Minnesota beaten that I'm supposed to be impressed by? And (2) isn't Minnesota a carbon copy of Wisconsin, except Wisconsin runs better and defends the run better, while Minny passes (slightly) better and defends the pass better? I think Justin Jackson runs for another 150, Siemian avoids mistakes for the most part (1 INT, which Minny does not turn into points), Northwestern wins the TOP battle, and Northwestern holds off a late Minnesota drive by picking off Mitch Leidner (pick going to Matthew Harris this time), to win 27-20. (Note: Minnesota is the first of three straight NU opponents facing the Wildcats after a bye.....how the hell does that happen?)

Ray Ransom: Northwestern outsmarts Minny. Nation is shocked. Fitz walks away from an explosion without caring.NU 21-10

GoForThree:Northwestern's luck and the reign of the Purple Messiah come to a screeching halt. Minnesota uses a complex gameplan of run, run, run, run, draw (fake pass to a run), and run to pound the ball down NU's throat...slowly.Minnesota 17-10.

Mike Jones: It's tough to sit here and pick Minnesota over Northwestern considering: 1) Northwestern is hot; and 2) Minnesota isn't as effective as scoring points as Wisconsin. But I like this Minnesota team. I think their defense is legitimate and they score "just enough" to win football games. Then again, NU might be for real. I could see it going either way but I'll take Minnesota to win 24-20.

babaoreally: Minnesota to cover

MNWildcat: This stupid week just needs to be done. One team gets the continued delusion that they're going to actually matter, the other goes on tilt when it's totally unnecessary. And this has been my life. Minnesota, 20-17.
 


NW did hold a TOP advantage over PSU and Wisconsin (both of which hold the ball longer than we do on average), so it's not unheard of. A lot of that was due to turnovers but still, it could very well happen.
 

The problem with som of the analysis I'm seeing is that PSU and Wisconsin are pretty average this year. I asked the question in the offseason: why will PSU be better this year? They have some holes in their roster and if Hack isn't on it's trouble. They have a used tire salesman as a head coach and he's already pissing me off, sniffing around Demry Croft. The Lyin's will be good eventually but they have some rebuilding to do.

Wisconsin is Melvin Gordon and a lot of grabbing and holding away from being a 4 win team. In hindsight that close loss to LSU looks worse. LSU isn't very good this year.

Props to the nerds for doing what needed to be done to put away these down teams, but I think we get a comfortable win tomorrow.
 

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