Media Prediction Thread: Michigan at Minnesota, October 7, 2023

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Alex of Saturday Tradition first out of the gate:

Week 6: at Minnesota (W)​

Harbaugh has had past troubles in rivalry games against Michigan State and Ohio State. But this old timey rivalry for the Little Brown Jug hasn’t been much of a challenge. He’s 3-0 against the Gophers with a pair of blowout wins over PJ Fleck. Michigan should roll.

saturdaytradition.com

Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every Michigan football game in 2023

Saturday Tradition columnist Alex Hickey predicts the outcome of every regular season game of Michigan's 2023 football season.
saturdaytradition.com saturdaytradition.com

Go Gophers!!
 

Jesse chimes in:

Week 6 vs. Michigan (10/7)​

​
Michigan is favored to win the Big Ten and will likely be one of the top teams in college football. Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines have been dominant in the last two seasons. They have a 25-3 record, won the Big Ten twice, beat rival Ohio State twice, and made it to the college football playoffs twice. As Michigan makes a run at another playoff appearance, the Wolverines will take care of business when they play the Gophers.

Projection: Gophers lose 16-38

lastwordonsports.com

2023 Minnesota Gophers Schedule: Game-by-Game Prediction

The Minnesota Gophers will have a difficult time matching last season’s win total. Let's take a look at the season predictions.
lastwordonsports.com

Go Gophers!!
 



I have spent way too much of my life sadly recalling the 2003 game. It remains one of the three most damaging, hurtful experiences of my personal college/pro sports fan history.

I have often concluded that there isn’t anything that could make up for the 2003 Michigan game from my perspective.

But, an unlikely win against that team this year, with it directly leading to a West championship might actually allow me to bury the 2003 demons.
 



Schnauzer said:
I have spent way too much of my life sadly recalling the 2003 game. It remains one of the three most damaging, hurtful experiences of my personal college/pro sports fan history.

I have often concluded that there isn’t anything that could make up for the 2003 Michigan game from my perspective.

But, an unlikely win against that team this year, with it directly leading to a West championship might actually allow me to bury the 2003 demons.
Click to expand...

20 years later, and I still can’t get this play out of my head. 2015 sucked too, but much less than 2003.


navarre-screen-td.gif
 

I’ve mentioned this a few times, but that game cost me a very good fishing spot on “our” lake.

We didn’t have season tickets yet in 2003 and I was a much more avid angler in those days. I listened intently to the Michigan game on my boat’s radio that night. I was trolling crankbaits for walleyes.

I sat there in horror and complete helpless despair as the big lead disappeared in the second half.

For at least the following 17 years, I refused to fish on that spot because I would just be reminded of the 2003 game and my mind would automatically wander to that.

Proof that time does indeed heal all wounds though: in recent years I have finally been able to again fish that spot without melting down.
 

Schnauzer said:
I have spent way too much of my life sadly recalling the 2003 game. It remains one of the three most damaging, hurtful experiences of my personal college/pro sports fan history.

I have often concluded that there isn’t anything that could make up for the 2003 Michigan game from my perspective.

But, an unlikely win against that team this year, with it directly leading to a West championship might actually allow me to bury the 2003 demons.
Click to expand...
I was at that game and the 4th quarter collapse was shocking and heartbreaking. The 2015 game where Tracy Claeys' incompetent clock management caused another loss to Michigan was also heartbreaking.
 



2015: I was almost chuckling at what I had just witnessed. In hindsight, all that loss really meant was not having the jug for a 2nd consecutive year & going to the Motor City Bowl legit rather than going with a sub .500 record & qualifying due to having a high APR....

2003.....I was not chuckling after that one. That, at minimum, cost a Rose Bowl bid. It also more than likely led to the MSU loss the next week, which would have meant playing for a Sugar Bowl National Title bid going into the Iowa game (probably wouldn't have changed that result, but I'll still live in the sliding doors world just because).
 






Dimers is predicting a 32-13 Michigan victory
Based on advanced machine learning and data, Dimers.com has simulated Michigan vs. Minnesota 10,000 times.

Dimers' popular predictive analytics model, DimersBOT, gives Michigan a 92% chance of winning against Minnesota.

Play Picks has Michigan winning 31-12
The Wolverines are double-digit favorites, by 19.5 points. The over/under for the outing is 46 points.

Picks and Parlays has Michigan winning 38-20
These two programs have not met since 2020, when Michigan had no problems during a 49-24 road victory. The Wolverines have scored 30 plus points in each of their first five victories and will find plenty of success against a Minnesota defense that surrendered 37 points against Northwestern.
 

The Daily Gopher has Michigan winning 34-10
The Wolverines have been one of the most dominant teams in the country through the first five weeks of the season. Their average margin of victory: 28.4 points. Granted, the combined record of their first five opponents is 13-12 and their two best wins are over UNLV (4-1) and Rutgers (4-1). But I haven’t seen anything from this Minnesota team to suggest that the Gophers are capable of pulling the upset. I expect Michigan to keep rolling.

BetSided has Michigan coming away victorious
After failing to cover the point spread in their first four games, we saw the upside of the Michigan Wolverines by rolling past Nebraska as 17-point favorites, winning 45-7 on the road by averaging nearly six yards per play.

While Michigan has somewhat coasted through its first four games, I believe we are going to see an aggressive shift as Big Ten play picks up. I especially fancy this matchup for the Wolverines as this Minnesota defense is not equipped to slow down the visitors.

The Golden Gophers are 100th in success rate on the year and will face arguably the best offensive line in college football with two future pros at running back in Blake Corum and Donnovan Edwards.

Further, Minnesota isn't a team built to come back from a big deficit, even if Taylor returns to the field after a week absence. The Golden Gophers don't have faith in Athan Kaliakmanis to throw a ton, the team is 123th in passing play percentage this season, as it leans on the ground game to put the team in managable down and distances. However, that won't come easy against a Michigan defense that is sixth in success rate.

I believe Michigan will pull away with relative ease against this limited Minnesota offense.
 

FireDaveLee said:
2015: I was almost chuckling at what I had just witnessed. In hindsight, all that loss really meant was not having the jug for a 2nd consecutive year & going to the Motor City Bowl legit rather than going with a sub .500 record & qualifying due to having a high APR....
Click to expand...

Actually, the Gophers beat Michigan the year before (2014) and pretty decisively (30-14). We happened to catch Michigan in a rare bad year (5-7). That was Brady Hoke's final year. Harbaugh's first year was 2015.

The heart breaking thing about the 2015 loss is we really did outplay a 10-3 Michigan team in that game (461 yards to 296 and a 2-0 turnover advantage). That probably was our best game of a tough year and we still lost.
 

Schnauzer said:
I have spent way too much of my life sadly recalling the 2003 game. It remains one of the three most damaging, hurtful experiences of my personal college/pro sports fan history.

I have often concluded that there isn’t anything that could make up for the 2003 Michigan game from my perspective.

But, an unlikely win against that team this year, with it directly leading to a West championship might actually allow me to bury the 2003 demons.
Click to expand...
Maybe we can gather at the former MetroDump grounds and bury something as a symbolic end to this misery.
 

PeoplesFront said:
20 years later, and I still can’t get this play out of my head. 2015 sucked too, but much less than 2003.


navarre-screen-td.gif
Click to expand...
Maybe the Gophers can run this play back to AK against Michigan? That would be some sweet irony now wouldn't it.
 



MLive has Michigan winning 35-14
Back-to-back road games for Michigan, which is coming off its most complete performance of the season last week at Nebraska. This week, Jim Harbaugh’s club goes up against a Minnesota team that doesn’t do much of anything particularly well.

The Gophers own wins over Nebraska (by three), Eastern Michigan and, most recently, Louisiana, but lost an ugly overtime game to Northwestern. P.J. Fleck’s team is in clear rebuild mode, and I expect Michigan to come in and try to run the football in cold weather.

Look for Blake Corum and the offensive line to feast, and the Wolverines to open up another big lead early and coast much like last Saturday’s win in Lincoln.

Athlon Sports is taking Michigan, 31-12
Our computer model predicts the Wolverines will earn a victory. In their last outing, the Wolverines knocked off the Nebraska Cornhuskers 45-7. The Golden Gophers are coming off of a 35-24 win over the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns.

The Wolverines are expected to win by at least two touchdowns (currently -19.5) against the Golden Gophers.

College Football News has Michigan winning 34-7
Michigan has taken nine of the last ten Little Brown Jugs in this classic battle that began in 1892, when a powerhouse Minnesota team sent Frank Barbour’s Wolverines home with a 14-6 in the program’s first real college football game - if you don’t want to count the inaugural season’s lid-lifter against a team made up of University of Minnesota alumni.

There’s a brilliance in Michigan’s methodical style. It’s not taking a whole lot of chances, the defense is holding up drive after drive, JJ McCarthy is playing like a Heisman candidate, and … 13.

That’s how many penalties Michigan has been hit with, being flagged just once against Bowling Green. Michigan didn’t get flagged against Nebraska. The team is sharp, and that’s not stopping in the Bank.
 

The Star Tribune has Michigan winning 41-13
Upon first glance, this appears to be a mismatch. Michigan just routed Nebraska 45-7 in Lincoln, while the Gophers needed two late turnovers and a last-minute, 47-yard field goal to edge the Cornhuskers 13-10.

While the Wolverines schedule has been far from daunting — Rutgers is the best team Michigan has played so far — they have been winning by an average of four touchdowns. So, upon second glance, yep, it's still a mismatch. The Gophers will need too much to go their way to secure the upset.

My expectation: The Gophers produce a solid effort, but Michigan takes an early lead, keeps Minnesota at arm's length and pulls away in the second half.

The Pioneer Press is predicting a 34-14 Michigan victory
Gophers offense vs. Michigan defense: The Wolverines defense leads the nation in points allowed at 6.0 per game. They have given up a total of three touchdowns in five games. No team in the nation has allowed fewer first downs per game. EDGE: Michigan

Gophers defense vs. Michigan offense: McCarthy is completing 79 percent of passes, with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions this season. The Gophers pass defense has been susceptible to multiple breakdowns in coverage in the last three weeks. The Michigan offensive line has won two straight Joe Moore Awards, given to the best O-line in the country, and has reloaded with the help of transfers from other Power Five programs. EDGE: Michigan

Prediction: The Gophers have reached the pinnacle of their challenging schedule this season, with a midseason favorite to make a third straight College Football Playoff appearance. The U has not shown enough consistency to conjure belief in a massive upset.
 

MLive writers have their full predictions out
Ryan Zuke is taking Michigan, 41-10
Although the score has been lopsided in all five of Michigan’s games, last week’s thrashing of Nebraska was the team’s most complete performance on both sides of the ball against a respectable opponent.

I expect more of the same against Minnesota, which I view in the same tier as the Cornhuskers. The Gophers don’t have much star power and don’t have any position groups or areas where they really shine. That makes it difficult to find a winning formula against a deep and healthy Michigan squad.

I’m not sure the status of Minnesota’s No. 1 running back and Big Ten rushing leader Darius Taylor, a Michigan native, but it will need him to have a big day on the ground just to keep this game close. Many of the Wolverines’ starters haven’t played much in the fourth quarter this season, and they might get some early rest again Saturday.

Andrew Kahn is going with Michigan, 38-13
I debated copying and pasting what I wrote last week, for my Nebraska prediction, and seeing if anyone noticed. I won’t be that lazy, but I do think it will be similar to what we see on Saturday against Minnesota.

“This team will steamroll you if you don’t play well,” Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck said about Michigan this week. And Michigan has a habit of making teams not play well. The country’s No. 1-ranked defense travels well, and the Wolverines are too focused to allow for a so-called letdown performance. The fact that so many guys are pushing for playing time likely helps there -- if the starters loaf, there’s a capable player ready to step in and take his place.

The new clock rules have limited possessions and prevented the Wolverines from running up the score more than they have, but I expect another efficient offensive performance paired with a suffocating defense that forces a turnover or two.

Aaron McMann is predicting a 35-14 Michigan win
Back-to-back road games for Michigan, which is coming off its most complete performance of the season last week. This week, Jim Harbaugh’s club goes up against a Minnesota team that doesn’t do much of anything particularly well. The Gophers own wins over Nebraska (by three), Eastern Michigan and, most recently, Louisiana, but lost an ugly overtime game to Northwestern.

P.J. Fleck’s team is in clear rebuild mode, and I expect Michigan to come in and try to run the football in cold weather. Look for Blake Corum and the offensive line to feast, and the Wolverines to open up another big lead early and coast much like last Saturday’s win in Lincoln.

GopherIllustrated is predicting a 30-13 Michigan victory
I said it before, and I'll state it again. This 2023 Michigan team is arguably the most complete and talented team the Gophers' have faced since 2018 Ohio State, if not the entire Fleck era. They've got NFL talent at every position on both sides of the ball, and they're all playing at a high level.
But this is also why you play the games.

Minnesota will be the most talented team that Michigan has faced thus far, and we've seen before that Fleck's team can get up for home games like this. They kept it close with Ohio State in 2021 until Mo Ibrahim went down, and they beat an undefeated Penn State in 2019.

I don't know that I see Minnesota's first game of playing actual complementary football on offense, defense, and special teams coming in this game.

It's close until the third quarter, but Michigan pulls away late.
 

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