Many of you are being too pessimistic

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touchdownvikings

touchdownvikings

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This team will look good against Nebraska, and going forward.

Why?

Because when this team has two top-end receivers, it can pass. And when it can pass, it can run. And the defense functions as we all hoped for.

The team's problems arise when it does not have both CrAB and Wright. Because that means that Tanner is not situated within a state of affairs wherein he can decide where the ball is going before it is snapped. And he struggles mightily when that happens. But if he can know where the ball is going before it is snapped, watch out! And guess what? CrAB and Wright will be playing. So watch out!

Tanner's strengths: quite accurate, throws a catchable ball, reads the defense pre-snap well, good pocket awareness, above-average in terms of moving around the pocket, understands the offense.

Tanner's weaknesses: short, sub-par arm strength, struggles to go through progressions.

Tanner can compensate for being short by moving around the pocket - and he does that fairly well. He can compensate for sub-par arm strength by largely staying away from out-patterns that require a flat-trajectory, high-speed delivery - and he largely does that. He can "compensate" for his struggles with progressions by simply deciding where the ball is going pre-snap while attempting to look off defenders - and this works when he has two top-end receivers on the field.

Do I think we'll beat Nebraska? Yes. Because the offense will have CrAB and Wright. That means the Gophers will be able to pass. And that means they'll be able to run. So the offense will work. And the defense is clicking. All good.
 

I think the issue is that most of us agree.

But the offense has fallen SO SHORT that it seems the problem is systemic ... like strategy, OC, player utilization.

Players can't overcome that with raw potential alone, and it's not clear that the staff has fixed it. Let alone on RB3 now.

There's potential to still be a great offense, agreed, Just don't know if the folks driving the offensive boat can do it.

Then there is that creepy sensation that the COVID offensive issues were not much COVID... and again some sort of systemic issue.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
I think the issue is that most of us agree.

But the offense has fallen SO SHORT that it seems the problem is systemic ... like strategy, OC, player utilization.

Players can't overcome that with raw potential alone, and it's not clear that the staff has fixed it. Let alone on RB3 now.

There's potential to still be a great offense, agreed, Just don't know if the folks driving the offensive boat can do it.

Then there is that creepy sensation that the COVID offensive issues were not much COVID... and again some sort of systemic issue.
Click to expand...
The problem is systemic: Tanner requires two top-end receivers to be effective. He's only had that in a single game: Colorado.

Here's where the team is at. Want to win more than you lose? Then stop losing. Just by not losing, you will win about 8 games per year. That's the Jerry Kill approach ("Most games are lost, not won."). Fleck reflects Kill's belief about this matter chiefly in one way: he starts the players with the highest floor - not the highest ceiling. That's how you go about not losing.

What does this mean to the Gophers?

To date, we have started RB's who are sub-electric. Effective, but sub-electric. Remember when Mo broke one on 4th down against Ohio State? Did he go all the way? Nope. Not fast enough. And neither is Potts (although he's a little faster). Sub-electric, both of them. The running game works with those two, chiefly as a result of an offensive line that can dominate when it has numbers. And it has numbers when there are two high safeties. And there will be two high safeties when the opposing defensive coordinator KNOWS that you've got two receivers that can EACH put up 150+ yards per game.

Tanner can't force two high safeties on his own. He struggles to go through progressions. And our backs are sub-electric. So there is systemic failure. ...Buuuuuuuuuuut, give him two top-end receivers and things change. He'll throw to which ever of Wright or CrAB is not doubled up, until the opposing coordinator grows tired of that and goes to two high safeties. Then Tanner will count bodies in the box and hand the ball off. And this will go on and on and on. That's all 2019 was. This permits Tanner to use his strengths and hides his weakness.

Side note: is it possible that we have QB's and RB's on the team with higher ceilings? I suspect so. And we'll probably have to use those RB's now, given the situation. Challenge is that their floor is lower right now. That said, RB is easily the simplest position to start a freshman. Will one of the freshman mess up a blitz assignment? Yep. And it'll cost us. But I think they'll be effective enough to let the offense take advantage of CrAB and Wright.
 

Teams have tendencies for a reason - because that is what they prefer to do in various situations.

For the Gophers to pull off what TDVikings is suggesting, they will have to go away from their tendencies.

Seriously - If you watch the Gophers on a regular basis, is there any cause to think/believe that Fleck and Sanford are going to tear up the script and go in some whole new direction? Bleep No!

Fleck is who he is. Sanford is who he is.

The Gophers are who they are. If the Gophers execute and avoid mistakes, they have a chance.

I think the real issue is on defense. The defense has to up its game. the Gophers may need to be a team that wins with defense, and just enough offense. that is more likely IMHO than the idea that Fleck and Sanford are going to turn Morgan loose and start chucking the ball all over the field.
 

I honestly feel like the game will be decided on defense as well.

Rossi has to keep everything basic and AM2 in front of him, contained.

Mn has to set the edge always and likely play a spy putting out CBs in single coverage. I'm hoping we can somewhat force enough 3rd and longs where Rossi can mix some coverages and confuse AM which has happened alot. Problem is we cant let him run.

I think TDVikings is right. Crab and Wright could possibly force Nebby to go double high. But this is only true if we are successful passing in 1st qtr.
 


Thomasthetank said:
I think TDVikings is right. Crab and Wright could possibly force Nebby to go double high. But this is only true if we are successful passing in 1st qtr.
Click to expand...

It would also be extremely helpful if the receivers would catch, rather than drop, key passes. The Gophers beat Purdue despite two key dropped passes. Granted, the ball was wet.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
I think the issue is that most of us agree.

But the offense has fallen SO SHORT that it seems the problem is systemic ... like strategy, OC, player utilization.

Players can't overcome that with raw potential alone, and it's not clear that the staff has fixed it. Let alone on RB3 now.

There's potential to still be a great offense, agreed, Just don't know if the folks driving the offensive boat can do it.

Then there is that creepy sensation that the COVID offensive issues were not much COVID... and again some sort of systemic issue.
Click to expand...
Well, it is the Sanford and Sons junkyard deal.
 

What will we be saying if Minnesota actually beats the (suddenly) formidable Cornhuskers?
 




touchdownvikings said:
This team will look good against Nebraska, and going forward.

Why?

Because when this team has two top-end receivers, it can pass. And when it can pass, it can run. And the defense functions as we all hoped for.

The team's problems arise when it does not have both CrAB and Wright. Because that means that Tanner is not situated within a state of affairs wherein he can decide where the ball is going before it is snapped. And he struggles mightily when that happens. But if he can know where the ball is going before it is snapped, watch out! And guess what? CrAB and Wright will be playing. So watch out!

Tanner's strengths: quite accurate, throws a catchable ball, reads the defense pre-snap well, good pocket awareness, above-average in terms of moving around the pocket, understands the offense.

Tanner's weaknesses: short, sub-par arm strength, struggles to go through progressions.

Tanner can compensate for being short by moving around the pocket - and he does that fairly well. He can compensate for sub-par arm strength by largely staying away from out-patterns that require a flat-trajectory, high-speed delivery - and he largely does that. He can "compensate" for his struggles with progressions by simply deciding where the ball is going pre-snap while attempting to look off defenders - and this works when he has two top-end receivers on the field.

Do I think we'll beat Nebraska? Yes. Because the offense will have CrAB and Wright. That means the Gophers will be able to pass. And that means they'll be able to run. So the offense will work. And the defense is clicking. All good.
Click to expand...

Tanner has had very little time to go through progressions. He’s been put under quick pressure way too often, and then often had nowhere to go with the ball. Even when the balls are delivered oftentimes they are dropped.

He hasn’t been stellar this year, but I’d say he’s been average. The rest of the O, the coaches also needs to step up their game.
 

Well, yeah, but he's "too short" and his arm strength is lackluster.

Right, touchdownvikings? Hello?
 


Thomasthetank said:
I honestly feel like the game will be decided on defense as well.

Rossi has to keep everything basic and AM2 in front of him, contained.

Mn has to set the edge always and likely play a spy putting out CBs in single coverage. I'm hoping we can somewhat force enough 3rd and longs where Rossi can mix some coverages and confuse AM which has happened alot. Problem is we cant let him run.

I think TDVikings is right. Crab and Wright could possibly force Nebby to go double high. But this is only true if we are successful passing in 1st qtr.
Click to expand...
Are you Frank’s brother?
 



Problem is we don't know which Gopher team will show up: they were strong against Ohio State most of the way, but Mo was in there during that time. Six quarters against Miami and Bowling Green they were so inept, they couldn't beat Illinois. They are at the bottom of the B10 in passing and their top two runners are out. Nebraska seems more consistent, game to game, and shut down MSU's offense for an entire half (no first downs), stopping Walker, a Heisman candidate. Martinez is way beyond Morgan in talent, but if CAB, Wright and Jackson can all play, and Sanford/Fleck can call a passing game, the Gophers have a chance. Would be funny if we actually ran against them, too. Doesn't seem likely, but college games are full of surprises, which makes handicapping so difficult. But Huskers are the betting favorite and that makes sense.
 

What is going to be very interesting to see is how Fleck/Sanford respond now that they will be forced out of their comfort zone. When Mo was back there, they were very comfortable handing it to him 30 times a game and letting him do his thing. They went a similar route with Potts but I don't think they will feel comfortable doing that with any of the other backs on our roster.

Fleck referenced more of a committee approach now at RB which means the coaches are going to be forced to mix it up more and the assumption would be this will also force the offense to go to the air more than they have to this point.

The big question is, will they turn to their experienced QB and put more of the game in his hands?
 

If Fleck and Sanford institute a gameplan in which Bucko Irving runs the ball 40 times, including quite a few of the dreaded RUTMs, and the Gophers end up beating the suddenly formidable Cornhuskers by a score of, say, 13-10...

... will GopherHolers be happy, or crabby?
 

I agree. Our two problematic games came against the MAC. The coaching staff played it so basic and vanilla that they knew exactly what to expect. It doesn't take a Rhodes Scholar to see that this type of game planning won't work in the Big Ten. I'd expect to see them open it up. And despite being down our top two backs.....there's still plenty of talent ready to tote the rock. Hopefully these guys are ready.
 

I’d quote a few posts but there are two many.

1. The post about starting Mo because he has a higher floor. I’m sorry but 30 carries per game for 150/yds is not a floor, it’s LEGENDARY! He’s a beast. And the fact that he doesn’t break that many long runs just means he is pummeling the defense all day. Potts was doing similar things. This is not easy to do consistently and takes a great toll on the player. It’s why Earl Campbell had such a short career.
now maybe one of these other guys may be faster and more electric but that doesn’t mean more effective. Scoring quickly keeps your defense on the field and wears them down. It’s better to keep them off and let them rest and not let the other team get in an offensive groove.

2. The wide receiver theory of 2. Yes, this is proven! We need a receiving threat to be effective. We need blocking as well, but having 2 receivers for the defense to worry about really helps. It lessens everything up. Underneath routes to backs and TEs. Slants. You name it.

3. Stop thinking Thomas or Irving are going to be Barry Sanders. If they were, we’d be seeing them already. They may be faster than tre and Mo but they must have some deficiencies like fumbling, pass blocking, vision that keeps them back. Hopefully they are picking these things up. Some people just have it. We will have to see. The best hope for these guys is the resurrection of the passing game.
 

Otis said:
I’d quote a few posts but there are two many.

1. The post about starting Mo because he has a higher floor. I’m sorry but 30 carries per game for 150/yds is not a floor, it’s LEGENDARY! He’s a beast. And the fact that he doesn’t break that many long runs just means he is pummeling the defense all day. Potts was doing similar things. This is not easy to do consistently and takes a great toll on the player. It’s why Earl Campbell had such a short career.
now maybe one of these other guys may be faster and more electric but that doesn’t mean more effective. Scoring quickly keeps your defense on the field and wears them down. It’s better to keep them off and let them rest and not let the other team get in an offensive groove.

2. The wide receiver theory of 2. Yes, this is proven! We need a receiving threat to be effective. We need blocking as well, but having 2 receivers for the defense to worry about really helps. It lessens everything up. Underneath routes to backs and TEs. Slants. You name it.

3. Stop thinking Thomas or Irving are going to be Barry Sanders. If they were, we’d be seeing them already. They may be faster than tre and Mo but they must have some deficiencies like fumbling, pass blocking, vision that keeps them back. Hopefully they are picking these things up. Some people just have it. We will have to see. The best hope for these guys is the resurrection of the passing game.
Click to expand...
Barry Sanders wishes he was as good as Bucko!
 


Otis said:
I’d quote a few posts but there are two many.

1. The post about starting Mo because he has a higher floor. I’m sorry but 30 carries per game for 150/yds is not a floor, it’s LEGENDARY! He’s a beast. And the fact that he doesn’t break that many long runs just means he is pummeling the defense all day. Potts was doing similar things. This is not easy to do consistently and takes a great toll on the player. It’s why Earl Campbell had such a short career.
now maybe one of these other guys may be faster and more electric but that doesn’t mean more effective. Scoring quickly keeps your defense on the field and wears them down. It’s better to keep them off and let them rest and not let the other team get in an offensive groove.

2. The wide receiver theory of 2. Yes, this is proven! We need a receiving threat to be effective. We need blocking as well, but having 2 receivers for the defense to worry about really helps. It lessens everything up. Underneath routes to backs and TEs. Slants. You name it.

3. Stop thinking Thomas or Irving are going to be Barry Sanders. If they were, we’d be seeing them already. They may be faster than tre and Mo but they must have some deficiencies like fumbling, pass blocking, vision that keeps them back. Hopefully they are picking these things up. Some people just have it. We will have to see. The best hope for these guys is the resurrection of the passing game.
Click to expand...
Otis, I agree that Mo is a beast. A sub-electric beast, but a beast: relatively powerful, strong first cut, good balance, elite vision. Those things add up to finding a hole, breaking arm tackles, punishing defenses and all things related to yards-after-contact! You can win with him. But he is slow (for a RB) and not particularly elusive. Do I suspect Bucky or Ky may have a higher ceilings? Yes, although I don't know, and I'm not expecting Barry Sanders. Your points about fumbling, pass blocking, etc., I agree. That's the "floor" I referred to. Play a freshman, expect a ball to get stripped, expect a missed block, and so on. And then the coach asks himself "who cares if he's faster or more elusive?" LOL. I'd play Mo if I had the opportunity, but he's out. And so is Potts. So the freshmen will be in.

Murray, I agree Tanner is a good QB. The best QB at MN in my lifetime, and I'm 50. But he admits to being 6' 1/2". That's short for the QB position. I think it is the least of his issues, but he does need to move around the pocket to find passing lanes, and he probably has a few more balls that end up being batted at the line of scrimmage than he would if were the more ideal 6'3" or 6'4". As for his arm, watch an entire game and count the number of times he throws a pass on an out-pattern to the far sideline. One that needs to zip in front of the face of a LB, 1-2 CB's (depending on alignment), and perhaps a safety. All of whom have the opportunity to "jump" the route. So the pass needs to be flat and extremely high velocity. The answer is he almost never throws that route. And there's a reason. It's particularly dangerous if you can't generate the velocity.

But the QB position is ultimately not about physical attributes once you cross a certain threshold. And Tanner crosses the threshold. It is about decision making. He has a particular process for decision making that makes him successful. Put two stud receivers on the field. Look for which one of the studs is uncapped by a safety. Throw to that one. If both are capped you have numbers in the box, so hand off. That is why more than 70% of all his passes go to his top two receivers. And that is why he struggles when he doesn't have two studs. Find a game where he doesn't have two stud WR's on the field, and check out his performance.

When I say he struggles with progressions, I don't mean that he literally never goes through progressions. Study the progressions he, in fact, does go through successfully. Simple triangle concepts existing within a small sector of the field. Or staggered layers of receivers running directly in front of him. In other words, concepts and designs that let him know a singular place to look - before the play even begins - in order to make his decision. That's ok. That is what most college QB's have to do. And Tanner is no exception.

You can win with Tanner. At pretty much the highest level. But he is a "system" player - almost all players in the NFL are - who needs to be in the right circumstance to let his strengths come out and to hide his primary weakness. That is not some sort of insult to Tanner. He's the best Gopher passer in my lifetime. Easily. Accurate. Catchable. Elite touch. Pocket presence. Grasp of offense. Able to do *just* enough with his legs to keep a defense guessing. Grasp of game situation. Confident. But none of that makes him 6'4". Or gives him a cannon arm. Or transforms him into a Manning-esque surveyor of the field. It's ok to be realistic about the players. I guarantee you that the coaching staff is. And they do their very best to give each player circumstances in which he can thrive.
 
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Nebraska plays down or up to their opponents, like a certain purple and gold team.
 

RememberMurray said:
If Fleck and Sanford institute a gameplan in which Bucko Irving runs the ball 40 times, including quite a few of the dreaded RUTMs, and the Gophers end up beating the suddenly formidable Cornhuskers by a score of, say, 13-10...

... will GopherHolers be happy, or crabby?
Click to expand...
Yes
 

Otis said:
Nebraska plays down or up to their opponents, like a certain purple and gold team.
Click to expand...
I can think of a maroon and gold team that does the exact same thing.
 

hungan1 said:
Well, it is the Sanford
Click to expand...
Yeah more and more I'm thinking COVID year wonkyness looks a lot like this year's and ... not as willing to give a pass anymore for that... just looks too similar.
 


On Morgan - when Duante Culpepper took over as QB for the Vikes, there was a lot of talk that the Vikes' OC simplified the offense so that Culpepper didn't have to think too much. Basically gave him 1 or 2 reads to look at and make a decision.

Of course, it helps when you can just heave the ball down the field to Randy Moss. But that was the point - don't make the QB think too much - look at one or two keys and let it fly.

I think Morgan could benefit from something similar. I am NOT saying Morgan isn't smart enough to read a defense, but just suggesting that giving him fewer choices might lead to quicker decision-making and more decisive passing.

that is where Morgan's relative lack of running ability - or the coaches not allowing him to run - limits this offense. Look at Neb - if Martinez doesn't see his 1st or 2nd reads, he just takes off and tries to pick up some positive yardage. Morgan either cannot do that - or he is not allowed to do that. either way, that limits the offense.
 

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