Major Shift: Gophers 8.5 Point Underdogs to Mich After Opening 12.5 (Wisconsin 16 pt Underdogs to USC After Opening 14)

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GopherMarroon

GopherMarroon

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Now:

#18 Michigan favored by 8.5 over Minnesota (was 12.5)

#11 USC favored by 16 over Wisconsin (was 14)

#10 Penn State favored by 18 over #24 Illinois (was 18)


Original Lines:

Opening Lines Big Ten for Sept 28 -- Gophers at Michigan

#18 Michigan favored by 12.5 over Minnesota #11 USC favored by 14 over Wisconsin #10 Penn State favored by 18 over #24 Illinois #3 Ohio State favored by 24.5 over Michigan State #9 Oregon favored by 23.5 over UCLA Nebraska by 11.5 over Purdue Indiana by 6.5 over Maryland In other games...
gopherhole.com gopherhole.com
 


I like both Illinois and the over 38.5 for the Gopher game
 

12.5 looked tempting enough, 8.5 looks like a nearly sure thing. Unless both sides of the line get straightened out, a team like Michigan will dominate in the trenches.
 

Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0 said:
12.5 looked tempting enough, 8.5 looks like a nearly sure thing. Unless both sides of the line get straightened out, a team like Michigan will dominate in the trenches.
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I put a sizable bet on MI (-8.5). I’ve been fooled before but it seems too good to be true. First time I’ve bet against the Gophers since Penn State in 2022 (PSU -4.5).
 


Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0 said:
12.5 looked tempting enough, 8.5 looks like a nearly sure thing. Unless both sides of the line get straightened out, a team like Michigan will dominate in the trenches.
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Michigan can’t score.
Michigan has a worse offense than Iowa.

I generally agree with you, but not enough to bet.

Also disagree with whoever said smash the over
 

Some guy said:
Michigan can’t score.
Michigan has a worse offense than Iowa.

I generally agree with you, but not enough to bet.

Also disagree with whoever said smash the over
Click to expand...
Michigan is basically a carbon copy of Iowa with better talent. They rushed for nearly 300 against USC and I don't see our DL issues getting fixed by game time. Orji (sp) could pass like he did Saturday and Michigan should still win comfortably.
 


A quick 4 point shift is interesting, as if someone knows something about injuries? Or tempering scoring expectations as Michigan is even worse at passing than Iowa. Imagine beating a ranked USC team with 32 yards passing. All 3 of their offensive TDs came off 40+ yard runs (the last one was 1 yd but set up by the big run) and they had a pick six so if you can limit chunk runs and don’t turn the ball over, Mich will not be able to score that much. And their D is clearly not elite like last year.
 




Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0 said:
Michigan is basically a carbon copy of Iowa with better talent. They rushed for nearly 300 against USC and I don't see our DL issues getting fixed by game time. Orji (sp) could pass like he did Saturday and Michigan should still win comfortably.
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Iowa’s back is better than michigans
Iowas OL is better than Michigan’s
Iowas QB is better than michigans
Michigans WRs are better than iowas

Yeah I agree I think it’s Michigan probably like 28-10 or something. But I don’t agree enough to bet
 

Some guy said:
Iowa’s back is better than michigans
Iowas OL is better than Michigan’s
Iowas QB is better than michigans
Michigans WRs are better than iowas

Yeah I agree I think it’s Michigan probably like 28-10 or something. But I don’t agree enough to bet
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I'm fairly confident that Michigan will score at least that much. Not very confident that the Gophers can score 10 to be honest.
 

Michigan might be a bit hungover but still, on the road for the first time this year, we reek of disaster. Michigan has not played that well until last week and not super impressive up until this game saturday. They will want to put a serious ass kicking on us. Vegas is looking for better action and 8.5 points is a gift from god right now.
USC will win big, bigger than big so if you want to take a chance, 16 is not unreasonable.
Illinois will be competitive and I will not touch that game.
 



The QBs from iowa and Michigan combined for 94 total passing yards.

Both teams won.
 


Wally said:
Line is now 6.5.

www.vegasinsider.com

Michigan vs Minnesota Odds, Betting Trends, and Line Movements - 10/04/2025

View the best Michigan vs Minnesota odds, betting trends, and line movements for 10/04/2025. We've got their head to head and last 10 game results.
www.vegasinsider.com www.vegasinsider.com

How do I order a Brinks Truck?
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Iowa beat us 24-0 in the 2nd half. And it wasn’t a fluke. Just regular offense. How can the line be this low? … unless there is a surprise, like a key Mich RB injured and out. Michigan likely will have a hard time passing on us. But it should run all over us.
 


GopherMarroon said:
#10 Penn State favored by 18 over #24 Illinois (was 18)
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This lines up with the advance stats, but definitely not the eye test. Illini have looked great this year and PSU has looked vulnerable.

But I feel strongly about this so PSU will probably win by 45.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
Iowa beat us 24-0 in the 2nd half. And it wasn’t a fluke. Just regular offense. How can the line be this low? … unless there is a surprise, like a key Mich RB injured and out. Michigan likely will have a hard time passing on us. But it should run all over us.
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I think you're right, but what the sharps are looking at:
  • Michigan's offense is struggling and Minnesota has a top 20 defense (last week's collapse notwithstanding -- also they were missing key pieces of their secondary). SP+ expects Michigan to score ~20-23 pts
  • Minnesota's offense was able to move the ball against Iowa for awhile, who has a defense at least as good as Michigan's
Those two things together say that Minnesota should be able to hang around for awhile. Or at least that Michigan might not be explosive enough to run them into the ground.

I'm skeptical, but we'll see.
 
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hello-world said:
I think you're right, but what the sharps are looking at:
  • Michigan's offense is struggling and Minnesota has a top 20 defense (last week's collapse notwithstanding -- also they were missing key pieces of their secondary). SP+ expects Michigan to score ~20-23 pts
  • Minnesota's offense was able to move the ball against Iowa for awhile, who has a defense at least as good as Michigan's
Those two things together say that Minnesota should be able to hang around for awhile. Or at least that Michigan might not be explosive enough to run them into the ground.

I'm skeptical, but we'll see.
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We probably won't have the ball long enough to do much. Hopefully I'm wrong.
 


tjgopher said:
Where you seeing 8.5?

I see 9.5 and 9.
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Update: Now 9.5 points at FanDuel. 9 at Draft Kings.

It was 8.5 at FanDuel when I made the original post. I triple-checked. It looks like bets have gone to Michigan.

1727265499619.png

Wow, Vegas Insider now has Michigan at 11. I think that was 9 when FanDuel was 8.5.

This line has been moving all over the place. 12.5 to 8.5, 9, 9.5 and 11.

Wow! OddShark has it now at 12.5 after being as low as 9.

Here is the line history from OddShark. Between 12.5 and 9 there.


www.oddsshark.com

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Michigan Wolverines Line History | Odds Shark

Find the full line history for Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Michigan Wolverines. See the opening line and track all the line movement until game time.
www.oddsshark.com www.oddsshark.com
 

GopherMarroon said:
Update: Now 9.5 points at FanDuel. 9 at Draft Kings.

It was 8.5 at FanDuel when I made the original post. I triple-checked. It looks like bets have gone to Michigan.

View attachment 33730

Wow, Vegas Insider now has Michigan at 11. I think that was 9 when FanDuel was 8.5.

This line has been moving all over the place. 12.5 to 8.5, 9, 9.5 and 11.

Wow! OddShark has it now at 12.5 after being as low as 9.

Here is the line history from OddShark. Between 12.5 and 9 there.


www.oddsshark.com

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Michigan Wolverines Line History | Odds Shark

Find the full line history for Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Michigan Wolverines. See the opening line and track all the line movement until game time.
www.oddsshark.com www.oddsshark.com
Click to expand...

That OddShark history indicates it opened at 12.5 and is sitting at 9 now. At least I think that's the way it looks.

It looks like Vegas Insider has listed all lines currently at 9 or 9.5.
 


tjgopher said:
That OddShark history indicates it opened at 12.5 and is sitting at 9 now. At least I think that's the way it looks.

It looks like Vegas Insider has listed all lines currently at 9 or 9.5.
Click to expand...
I see, that first number is open, not current. My bad.
 

tjgopher said:
That OddShark history indicates it opened at 12.5 and is sitting at 9 now. At least I think that's the way it looks.

It looks like Vegas Insider has listed all lines currently at 9 or 9.5.
Click to expand...
I just got it at 8.5 on BetUS.

I hope we play well and cover the number, don't mind losing the $20 if so. But that is an absurd spread coming off of last week.
 


hello-world said:
I think you're right, but what the sharps are looking at:
  • Michigan's offense is struggling and Minnesota has a top 20 defense (last week's collapse notwithstanding -- also they were missing key pieces of their secondary). SP+ expects Michigan to score ~20-23 pts
  • Minnesota's offense was able to move the ball against Iowa for awhile, who has a defense at least as good as Michigan's
Those two things together say that Minnesota should be able to hang around for awhile. Or at least that Michigan might not be explosive enough to run them into the ground.

I'm skeptical, but we'll see.
Click to expand...
I understand the stats, but the season is young and 50% of ours come from playing Rhode Island and Nevada. Moreover, MN has lately fallen into a habit of being severely out-coached after quality opponents make halftime adjustments. Don't get me wrong--I'd love to see a close, meaningful game with the Jug at stake. But, even if we have a decent first half, our OC and DC need to ramp up their intellectual approach if we are going to hang with MI in the second half. Go Gophers!
 



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