I have zero issue with having the other team start on the 25 after every kickoff. If your kicker can boom it out of the endzone everytime you do it.
The data is consistently showing that this might not be optimal strategy. I assumed it was but maybe it isn't.
Have no data to back it up but wonder if the analytics would flip some if you can get a touchback on 85-90% of your kickoffs the way we can. Looking at the Big Ten stats, most teams aren't anywhere close to that percentage. The thing I don't know is if that is by design or because their kicker can't do it.
We don't return kickoffs and we have Tyler back there who has a history of TD's on kick return. No need to switch.
From the eye test, many teams hit it high and try to get it to land inside the 5 or around the goal line to make the returner make a decision. Hangtime is better than driving the ball. I would say a lot of teams put more design into their kickoff teams. We rarely make the 20 when we do return. We average 11 yards on 12 returns and our opponents average 29 yards on 4 returns. Looks like giving them the 25 is a good decision.
Just so you know, this data does not count fair catches as touchbacks nor does it account for kickoffs out of bounds.
Up until halfway through the Michigan game it has been Redding. They flipped the “up” and “deep” man so Redding was the “up” man. It didn’t matter as they still didn’t allow Tyler to return one.
Everyone is afraid of the opponent starting at the 25 instead of the 20 too .... but I'm not sure we know if that really is a difference maker vs everything else that happens in a game.
I’ll do kick coverage…
Am I reading this right, we are struggling with in-state recruiting because we fair catch too many kickoffs? That's certainly a new one.
It's simply another way to get in-state kids excited to play for the Gophers.
I'm not sure you understand how analytics work.
DId you read the article?
50% of the time analytics works every time…
Usage tip. Before you comment on an "Advanced Football Analytics" article not being about football analytics, maybe you should actually glance at the article.
Outside of very rare situations like Robb Smith the answer is almost always "combination" when discussing any of this stuff.
I doubt enough to affect the outcome of a game.
It's an analytics article for sure. Only issue might be that it's from 2009 and I think the NFL has made some changes to make onside kicks harder.
Probably lack of emphasis in practice or, in other words, coaching.
the problem is he hasn't had enough kickoffs.I was playing around with the Big Ten team stats now that the regular season is in the books. There were a lot of strong performances around the squad, but one player and one unit stood out head-and-shoulders above all other Big Ten teams.
Dragan Kesich was dragon-mode all year long. Just blew away every other kicker in the Big Ten in touchback %. Kesich had 86.6% of his kickoffs end in touchbacks, with his next closest competitor well behind. (Maryland - 69% and Michigan - 67%). Conference average was below 50%.
What did this get the Gophers opponents? The third best starting field position on kickoffs in the conference.
All these kickoffs on average netted the Gophers 40.7 yards, or nearly exactly what a touchback nets (40 yards, or the distance from the 35 to the 25). This means opponents started on the 24.3 after our kickoffs, on average.
Most teams with much worse kicking performances had their opponents starting between the 20 and 25 on average. The worst touchback kicker in the Big Ten (Northwestern, 21%) yielded the worst opponent starting field position off kickoffs, or the 19.6 yard line on average.
Does it make analytics sense in college football to avoid touchbacks and run down and cover?
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