Let's have a talk about kickoffs (big analytics surprise)

[fmlizard]

I was playing around with the Big Ten team stats now that the regular season is in the books. There were a lot of strong performances around the squad, but one player and one unit stood out head-and-shoulders above all other Big Ten teams.

Dragan Kesich was dragon-mode all year long. Just blew away every other kicker in the Big Ten in touchback %. Kesich had 86.6% of his kickoffs end in touchbacks, with his next closest competitor well behind. (Maryland - 69% and Michigan - 67%). Conference average was below 50%.

What did this get the Gophers opponents? The third best starting field position on kickoffs in the conference.

All these kickoffs on average netted the Gophers 40.7 yards, or nearly exactly what a touchback nets (40 yards, or the distance from the 35 to the 25). This means opponents started on the 24.3 after our kickoffs, on average.

Most teams with much worse kicking performances had their opponents starting between the 20 and 25 on average. The worst touchback kicker in the Big Ten (Northwestern, 21%) yielded the worst opponent starting field position off kickoffs, or the 19.6 yard line on average.

Does it make analytics sense in college football to avoid touchbacks and run down and cover?

 

[UpAndUnder43]

This is interesting. I wonder how it translates nationwide.

A couple things I think favoring touchbacks are…
1. No game changing returns
2. Far fewer special team injuries (I’d suspect)

I do notice in the nfl where you can’t fair catch a kick that is not in the end zone that kickers are kicking higher and shorter to help coverage. Pound the ball to the 3 with more hang time to get coverage down there.

 

[RememberMurray]

Does it mean that the coverage teams, on average, are better and more efficient than the return teams?

Does it mean receiving teams would be wiser to fair catch and start at their own 25, rather than attempt a return?

Minnesota under Fleck used to fair catch all kickoffs that didn't go into the end zone. Predictably, people on Gopher Hole hated it. Now, with our new return guy we attempt runbacks, and often get poor starting field position as a result.

 

[Gophers1992]

Between the risk of fumble, injury, penalty, and the difficulty of returning the ball past the 25, it’s obvious that it makes sense to fair catch most of the time. GH is full of people who want to complain that our coach is “coaching scared” by employing a fairly obvious tactic.

 

[RememberMurray]

Between the risk of fumble, injury, penalty, and the difficulty of returning the ball past the 25, it’s obvious that it makes sense to fair catch most of the time. GH is full of people who want to complain that our coach is “coaching scared” by employing a fairly obvious tactic.

Yes. "Risk averse" is a favorite phrase as well.

In modern sports we have analytics, and the data doesn't lie. Unless you have a dynamic kick returner a la Cordarelle Patterson, Percy Harvin or Devin Hester, it seems you're better off fair catching the kickoff and starting at the 25.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

I was playing around with the Big Ten team stats now that the regular season is in the books. There were a lot of strong performances around the squad, but one player and one unit stood out head-and-shoulders above all other Big Ten teams.

Dragan Kesich was dragon-mode all year long. Just blew away every other kicker in the Big Ten in touchback %. Kesich had 86.6% of his kickoffs end in touchbacks, with his next closest competitor well behind. (Maryland - 69% and Michigan - 67%). Conference average was below 50%.

What did this get the Gophers opponents? The third best starting field position on kickoffs in the conference.

All these kickoffs on average netted the Gophers 40.7 yards, or nearly exactly what a touchback nets (40 yards, or the distance from the 35 to the 25). This means opponents started on the 24.3 after our kickoffs, on average.

Most teams with much worse kicking performances had their opponents starting between the 20 and 25 on average. The worst touchback kicker in the Big Ten (Northwestern, 21%) yielded the worst opponent starting field position off kickoffs, or the 19.6 yard line on average.

Does it make analytics sense in college football to avoid touchbacks and run down and cover?

View attachment 22195

 

[MaxyJR1]

Should Fair catch any higher kick or all of them. Get other teams to think that is what you will do. Spring a surprise return every once in a while, that could be a game changer. We were terrible at WI and cost ourselves a bunch if field position.

 

[Word]

Should Fair catch any higher kick or all of them. Get other teams to think that is what you will do. Spring a surprise return every once in a while, that could be a game changer. We were terrible at WI and cost ourselves a bunch if field position.

Yeah, of all the kicks for us to choose to return, those were not good ones. They kicked them high and we had terrible returns on all of them. I was surprised we didn't fair catch them.

 

[MNVCGUY]

I view Dragan as a weapon. When you can essentially eliminate the chance for a game changing kickoff return that is huge.

Sure you lose the chance to pin teams back closer to their endzone, but you also take away the chance for a coverage breakdown that leads to a long return or even a TD.

 

[SamSquatch]

In the return game, we do not have a legitimate returner. I do not want Redding returning kickoffs and would rather he fair catch them.

Happy to have Kesich get a touchback on each kickoff. We don’t have the ability to kick short and rely on coverage.

 

[MNVCGUY]

In the return game, we do not have a legitimate returner. I do not want Redding returning kickoffs and would rather he fair catch them.

Happy to have Kesich get a touchback on each kickoff. We don’t have the ability to kick short and rely on coverage.

In fairness we really don't know how good our kickoff coverage team is because they haven't had to do much because Dragan does such a great job getting touchbacks.

 

[fmlizard]

Guilty. Being a data nerd pays pretty well these days.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

Guilty. Being a data nerd pays pretty well these days.

Silly me - I remember when I first saw computers in HS and thought it would be a fad just like my pet

 

[fmlizard]

Silly me - I remember when I first saw computers in HS and thought it would be a fad just like my pet

I wish they had told me about the #1 job of 2022 - Crypto Bankruptcy Attorney

 

[Dakota2]

Does it mean that the coverage teams, on average, are better and more efficient than the return teams?

Does it mean receiving teams would be wiser to fair catch and start at their own 25, rather than attempt a return?

Minnesota under Fleck used to fair catch all kickoffs that didn't go into the end zone. Predictably, people on Gopher Hole hated it. Now, with our new return guy we attempt runbacks, and often get poor starting field position as a result.

Returning kickoffs is an ingrained art involving 11 guys. Fleck made the decision to start returning kicks this year but may not have mentioned it to the ST coach. No. 81 was more or less trying to get by the opponents 11 guys with very little interference from his blockers.

We have taken Step 1, the decision. Step 2 is to make the return game as important in practice as offense and defense. It will work and it will be a field position weapon if the work is put in.

 

[Dakota2]

Should Fair catch any higher kick or all of them. Get other teams to think that is what you will do. Spring a surprise return every once in a while, that could be a game changer. We were terrible at WI and cost ourselves a bunch if field position.

That strategy would provide delightful surprises for our other 10 guys who have little or no idea who to try to block.

Running game is about blocking. Great back helps. Kickoff returns is about blocking. Fast, shifty return guy helps.

 

[UpAndUnder43]

Silly me - I remember when I first saw computers in HS and thought it would be a fad just like my pet

Gary Dahl made millions. Don’t criticize the

 

[Some guy]

I was playing around with the Big Ten team stats now that the regular season is in the books. There were a lot of strong performances around the squad, but one player and one unit stood out head-and-shoulders above all other Big Ten teams.

Dragan Kesich was dragon-mode all year long. Just blew away every other kicker in the Big Ten in touchback %. Kesich had 86.6% of his kickoffs end in touchbacks, with his next closest competitor well behind. (Maryland - 69% and Michigan - 67%). Conference average was below 50%.

What did this get the Gophers opponents? The third best starting field position on kickoffs in the conference.

All these kickoffs on average netted the Gophers 40.7 yards, or nearly exactly what a touchback nets (40 yards, or the distance from the 35 to the 25). This means opponents started on the 24.3 after our kickoffs, on average.

Most teams with much worse kicking performances had their opponents starting between the 20 and 25 on average. The worst touchback kicker in the Big Ten (Northwestern, 21%) yielded the worst opponent starting field position off kickoffs, or the 19.6 yard line on average.

Does it make analytics sense in college football to avoid touchbacks and run down and cover?

View attachment 22195

The answer is no. Because even if you Kick it short they can fair catch it and be a touchback. Maybe if there was some analysis on squibs the question could be answered better.

It does lend merit to the strategy of fair catching everything if you don’t have a guy who can house it

 

[Some guy]

Does it mean that the coverage teams, on average, are better and more efficient than the return teams?

Does it mean receiving teams would be wiser to fair catch and start at their own 25, rather than attempt a return?

Minnesota under Fleck used to fair catch all kickoffs that didn't go into the end zone. Predictably, people on Gopher Hole hated it. Now, with our new return guy we attempt runbacks, and often get poor starting field position as a result.

Spot on.
Absolutely dumb to return a kick unless you have a guy who is going to score a couple times a year.
Even if you get a “good” return out to the 33.
The difference in scoring rate starting at the 18 instead of the 25 is larger than the difference between starting at the 25 and the 33


I’m not sure I agree with the thread title that it’s a big surprise

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Special teams have a different type of risk/reward equation.

Yes, fair-catching KO's is the safer way to approach it.

But it also eliminates the possibility of a big return which could change field position or momentum.

the kick-off coverage and return is not a big issue in my book.

the real special teams-issue is punting and punt returns. without doing extensive research, I would guess that the Gophers lost net field position on punting and punt returns in virtually every game this season. that is something that needs to improve.

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

Between the risk of fumble, injury, penalty, and the difficulty of returning the ball past the 25, it’s obvious that it makes sense to fair catch most of the time. GH is full of people who want to complain that our coach is “coaching scared” by employing a fairly obvious tactic.

100%. The situations where you would return are few and far between. First and foremost, you shouldn't even think about it unless you have an ELITE level returner.

They returned it 3 times against Wisky if I'm not mistaken, and lost a total of 26 yards of field position. The worst of those situations, getting nailed on the Gophers own 11, the Gophers went 3-and-out giving Wisky one of their only scores with a very short field.

Now that they are giving you the 25, it's absolutely idiotic to return KO's in almost every typical scenario.

 

[btowngopher]

Spot on.
Absolutely dumb to return a kick unless you have a guy who is going to score a couple times a year.
Even if you get a “good” return out to the 33.
The difference in scoring rate starting at the 18 instead of the 25 is larger than the difference between starting at the 25 and the 33


I’m not sure I agree with the thread title that it’s a big surprise

Where did you find this stat?

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

Gary Dahl made millions. Don’t criticize the

It was critique on my skillz, Gary, not yours.
My pet died, can you send me a replacement for X-mas.

 

[UpAndUnder43]

It was critique on my skillz, Gary, not yours.
My pet died, can you send me a replacement for X-mas.

If only I was him. If you send your address I will send you a rock though

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

Should Fair catch any higher kick or all of them. Get other teams to think that is what you will do. Spring a surprise return every once in a while, that could be a game changer. We were terrible at WI and cost ourselves a bunch if field position.

Yeah it might seem better to return it but if we suck at returning…. fair catch.

 

[Panthadad2]

Should Fair catch any higher kick or all of them. Get other teams to think that is what you will do. Spring a surprise return every once in a while, that could be a game changer. We were terrible at WI and cost ourselves a bunch if field position.

That makes sense. The long kick return against Illinois that almost scored a TD (Mo punched it in for a TD the next play) might have surprised them. That score put the Gophs ahead in that game and seemed like a big momentum swing even though the D gave it right back.

 

[fmlizard]

Here's a related story from the NFL where the Raiders were using a holder to push the ball higher on the tee, aiming for max hang time and no touchbacks.

NFL closed the loophole after 2 weeks but the sentiment of the strategy aligns with the analytics idea of kick and cover vs. blasting touchbacks.

 

[upnorthkid]

A question regarding all of this is what is a "significant" difference? Giving up on average 3-5 "extra" yards on kickoffs probably doesn't hurt you a ton in the grand scheme but giving up a house call once can lose you a game. There's game theory to all of this. The ideal to me is if you could have a kicker who could do both deep kicks through the back as well as the pop shot that lands on one side of the field at about the 2-3. But just using the net yards probably doesn't tell the whole story of what's best when the difference is 5 yards

 

[fmlizard]

I'm resurfacing this thread from last season because the same pattern is happening in 2023.

Dragan Kesich is 24 for 28 at touchback kickoffs this season. He's got a monster leg and leads the Big Ten in touchback %

Northwestern is dead last in Touchback %, sending only 7 of 26 kickoffs into the end zone.

Guess which team leads the Big Ten in worst opponent starting field position? Northwestern. Guess which team allows the best? Minnesota.

Kesich is the best player on the team at what he does. But please stop the Happy Gilmore monster kickoffs. 25 yard line changed things. The data is becoming too much to ignore.

 

[tikited]

I'm resurfacing this thread from last season because the same pattern is happening in 2023.

Dragan Kesich is 24 for 28 at touchback kickoffs this season. He's got a monster leg and leads the Big Ten in touchback %

Northwestern is dead last in Touchback %, sending only 7 of 26 kickoffs into the end zone.

Guess which team leads the Big Ten in worst opponent starting field position? Northwestern. Guess which team allows the best? Minnesota.

Kesich is the best player on the team at what he does. But please stop the Happy Gilmore monster kickoffs. 25 yard line changed things. The data is becoming too much to ignore.

View attachment 27741

If we could tackle better on returns....