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Game Preview: Gophers vs. UCLA 3/22/13
By J.B. Bauer
Let the Madness Begin
It's tournament time! The South region's No. 6 seed UCLA Bruins (25-9, 13-5 Pac-12) takes on the No. 11 seed Minnesota Golden Gophers (20-12, 8-10 Big Ten). The game is expected to begin at approximately 9pm CT and can be seen on truTV.
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/240559?referrer_id=388419
Game Preview: No. 6 UCLA Bruins (25-9, 13-5 Pac-12) vs. No. 11 Minnesota Golden Gophers (20-12, 8-10 Big Ten)
Minnesota and UCLA travel to Austin, Texas to play in the NCAA tournament’s South region Friday night. The game is expected to begin at approximately 9pm CT and can be seen on truTV.
Earlier this week we previewed the UCLA Bruins players ("Gophers vs. UCLA: Getting to Know the Bruins"). Today we look at the four factors and some the advantages held by either team.
Even before the injury to guard Jordan Adams the Bruins looked like an underdog according to many projection models. Despite finishing the year with three consecutive losses to Big Ten teams with below-.500 records, Minnesota is the consensus pick to win this game.
On paper, Minnesota wins this. If Tubby Smith mimics Ben Howland’s substitution patterns the Gophers improve their chances. However, that’s unlikely to happen.
Howland has had several days now to adjust his lineup and game plan for the Adams injury. Smart coaching could be the difference in this game.
My pick is the Gophers. They can ride the physicality of Trevor Mbakwe and scoring of Dre Hollins to victory. This is a fragile team, though, and they’ll need to play well throughout the game to get it done.
FOUR FACTORS
SHOOTING
Minn: Offense 49.1%, Defense 45.4%
UCLA: Offense 49.5%, Defense 47.1%
Advantage: Gophers
Neither team shoots the ball particularly well nor do they attempt many 3-point shots. Sidelined guard Jordan Adams (150 attempts) accounts for more than 30% of the Bruins’ 3-point tries this season.
Both teams have made approximately 49% of their 2-point attempts this season, but Minnesota’s 2FG% defense has been stronger (42.6% to 46.9%).
The Gophers are able to suppress the opposition’s field goal percentage by blocking a lot of shots. Their block percentage of more than 16% is 5th best in the nation. On offense, UCLA has their shot blocked only 7.3% of the time, 24th best in the nation. Part of this is due to the Bruins’ willingness to take 2-point jump shots instead of trying to get closer to the rim.
While UCLA’s offensive block percentage is low, top Pac-12 shot blocking teams and players like Arizona State’s Jordan Bachynzski (13 blocks in 3 games) and USC’s Dewayne Dedmon (5 blocks in 2 games) have not had a problem finding shots to redirect. Those two players are much taller than the Gophers’ Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams, but the senior forwards should be able to rack up some rejections.
Minnesota’s 2-point field goal percentage usually needs some assistance from easy points in transition. Without a lot of dunks and layups, the Gophers aren’t a good shooting team. Something similar could be said for UCLA, but for Minnesota their 2FG% has been key to winning or losing games.
In 19 games against conference foes, the Gophers were 7-0 when shooting more than 47.2% 2FG. When they made 47.2% or less than their 2-point attempts, they were just 1-11.
TURNOVERS
Minn: Offense 21.7%, Defense 20.1%
UCLA: Offense 15.7%, Defense 20.0%
Advantage: Bruins
Minnesota’s turnover rate has surpassed 20.6% in well over half of their games this season. UCLA has been over that mark just one time in 34 games.
Turnovers are major issue for Minnesota and they have been for several years in a row. In their Big Ten tournament loss to Illinois, the Gophers gave the ball away 19 times in 55 possessions (34.5%). It’s not just a player or two who struggles, it’s nearly everyone.
UCLA is without their top steal guy Jordan Adams so there is a little hope for Minnesota. Not much, but a little.
The Bruins low offensive turnover rate is one of the best in the nation. Norman Powell may see increased minutes with Adams out and while his 20% turnover rate would look great for a Gopher, it’s high relative to everyone else on the UCLA roster other than point guard Larry Drew II.
In five of the last 11 games, Drew has turned the ball over at least 5 times. UCLA needs to win the turnover battle with the Gophers and it’s important that Drew doesn’t try to do too much or have a rough outing.
REBOUNDING
Minn: Offense 44.3%, Defense 33.2%
UCLA: Offense 30.2%, Defense 34.0%
Advantage: Gophers
Minnesota has a large advantage on the offensive glass. Kyle Anderson and the Wear twins face a big challenge in limiting the Gophers’ second chances.
The Bruins are familiar with losing the rebounding battle and as long as they make some of it up on turnovers, they should be OK. UCLA has allowed their opponent an offensive rebounding percentage of 36.0% or more in 12 games this season. The Bruins’ own OR% was lower than the opponent in all 12, however their record was 11-1.
For UCLA, Shabazz Muhammad is quite good at getting to his team’s misses and Minnesota must address him.
FREE THROW RATE
Minn: Offense 41.9%, Defense 35.3%
UCLA: Offense 32.9%, Defense 24.4%
Advantage: Too close to call
UCLA will likely want to focus on denying entry passes to Mbakwe and double him once he’s got the ball. Minnesota could realize a nice advantage if they commit to getting the ball inside early and the refs are willing to call fouls.
However, the Bruins are one of the best in the nation at not sending their opponents to the line. There have been only two contests all season in which UCLA’s opponent had a free throw rate better than Minnesota’s average of 41.9%. Something must give. How things unfold in the first several minutes of the game could be very telling.
The Bruins don’t get to the line often (again, they like to take jump shots), but Minnesota’s defense has given up a free throw rate of 40% or more 12 times this season. Adding to the concern, five of those times have come in the last seven games.
OTHER NOTES
“Finish Him!”
The Bruins have come back after falling behind numerous times and they have won a lot of close games. Don’t believe those who might suggest UCLA isn’t a good comeback candidate because they don’t shoot 3-pointers. Minnesota can’t afford to let their foot off the gas if they gain the upper hand.
Just last week UCLA came back from being down by double-digits in their first two Pac-12 tourney games. The Bruins are 11-2 in games decided by five points or fewer this season.
Earlier this year they trailed Texas 61-53 with 3:02 to play and a win probability of around 2 percent. The Bruins won 65-63. Against Missouri with just over four minutes to play in regulation UCLA trailed by 9. They would go on to tie it and later win in overtime.
Keep the Ball, Win the Game
UCLA has won seven games this year despite having a lower eFG% than their opponent. Most often it’s been the turnover margin that made them a winner. Gophers guard Andre Hollins is a key to their offense, but he has the opportunity to be a hero on defense if he can turn Larry Drew II over several times.
One Minute
None of UCLA’s players have ever played a second in the NCAA tournament for the Bruins. Only Rodney Williams (1 minute) has logged time in an NCAA tournament game for the Gophers. (Trevor Mbakwe (one minute) and Larry Drew II (sparingly as a backup behind 2009 Minnesota Timberwolves draft pick Ty Lawson for national champion North Carolina) appeared with other schools.)
Ben Howland
In his 10-years as head coach at UCLA, Ben Howland has brought the program to the NCAA tournament seven times. The Bruins have won their regular conference championship in four of the past eight seasons and have posted a 233-106 record (.687) during Howland’s tenure.
By J.B. Bauer
Let the Madness Begin
It's tournament time! The South region's No. 6 seed UCLA Bruins (25-9, 13-5 Pac-12) takes on the No. 11 seed Minnesota Golden Gophers (20-12, 8-10 Big Ten). The game is expected to begin at approximately 9pm CT and can be seen on truTV.
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/240559?referrer_id=388419
Game Preview: No. 6 UCLA Bruins (25-9, 13-5 Pac-12) vs. No. 11 Minnesota Golden Gophers (20-12, 8-10 Big Ten)
Minnesota and UCLA travel to Austin, Texas to play in the NCAA tournament’s South region Friday night. The game is expected to begin at approximately 9pm CT and can be seen on truTV.
Earlier this week we previewed the UCLA Bruins players ("Gophers vs. UCLA: Getting to Know the Bruins"). Today we look at the four factors and some the advantages held by either team.
Even before the injury to guard Jordan Adams the Bruins looked like an underdog according to many projection models. Despite finishing the year with three consecutive losses to Big Ten teams with below-.500 records, Minnesota is the consensus pick to win this game.
On paper, Minnesota wins this. If Tubby Smith mimics Ben Howland’s substitution patterns the Gophers improve their chances. However, that’s unlikely to happen.
Howland has had several days now to adjust his lineup and game plan for the Adams injury. Smart coaching could be the difference in this game.
My pick is the Gophers. They can ride the physicality of Trevor Mbakwe and scoring of Dre Hollins to victory. This is a fragile team, though, and they’ll need to play well throughout the game to get it done.
FOUR FACTORS
SHOOTING
Minn: Offense 49.1%, Defense 45.4%
UCLA: Offense 49.5%, Defense 47.1%
Advantage: Gophers
Neither team shoots the ball particularly well nor do they attempt many 3-point shots. Sidelined guard Jordan Adams (150 attempts) accounts for more than 30% of the Bruins’ 3-point tries this season.
Both teams have made approximately 49% of their 2-point attempts this season, but Minnesota’s 2FG% defense has been stronger (42.6% to 46.9%).
The Gophers are able to suppress the opposition’s field goal percentage by blocking a lot of shots. Their block percentage of more than 16% is 5th best in the nation. On offense, UCLA has their shot blocked only 7.3% of the time, 24th best in the nation. Part of this is due to the Bruins’ willingness to take 2-point jump shots instead of trying to get closer to the rim.
While UCLA’s offensive block percentage is low, top Pac-12 shot blocking teams and players like Arizona State’s Jordan Bachynzski (13 blocks in 3 games) and USC’s Dewayne Dedmon (5 blocks in 2 games) have not had a problem finding shots to redirect. Those two players are much taller than the Gophers’ Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams, but the senior forwards should be able to rack up some rejections.
Minnesota’s 2-point field goal percentage usually needs some assistance from easy points in transition. Without a lot of dunks and layups, the Gophers aren’t a good shooting team. Something similar could be said for UCLA, but for Minnesota their 2FG% has been key to winning or losing games.
In 19 games against conference foes, the Gophers were 7-0 when shooting more than 47.2% 2FG. When they made 47.2% or less than their 2-point attempts, they were just 1-11.
TURNOVERS
Minn: Offense 21.7%, Defense 20.1%
UCLA: Offense 15.7%, Defense 20.0%
Advantage: Bruins
Minnesota’s turnover rate has surpassed 20.6% in well over half of their games this season. UCLA has been over that mark just one time in 34 games.
Turnovers are major issue for Minnesota and they have been for several years in a row. In their Big Ten tournament loss to Illinois, the Gophers gave the ball away 19 times in 55 possessions (34.5%). It’s not just a player or two who struggles, it’s nearly everyone.
UCLA is without their top steal guy Jordan Adams so there is a little hope for Minnesota. Not much, but a little.
The Bruins low offensive turnover rate is one of the best in the nation. Norman Powell may see increased minutes with Adams out and while his 20% turnover rate would look great for a Gopher, it’s high relative to everyone else on the UCLA roster other than point guard Larry Drew II.
In five of the last 11 games, Drew has turned the ball over at least 5 times. UCLA needs to win the turnover battle with the Gophers and it’s important that Drew doesn’t try to do too much or have a rough outing.
REBOUNDING
Minn: Offense 44.3%, Defense 33.2%
UCLA: Offense 30.2%, Defense 34.0%
Advantage: Gophers
Minnesota has a large advantage on the offensive glass. Kyle Anderson and the Wear twins face a big challenge in limiting the Gophers’ second chances.
The Bruins are familiar with losing the rebounding battle and as long as they make some of it up on turnovers, they should be OK. UCLA has allowed their opponent an offensive rebounding percentage of 36.0% or more in 12 games this season. The Bruins’ own OR% was lower than the opponent in all 12, however their record was 11-1.
For UCLA, Shabazz Muhammad is quite good at getting to his team’s misses and Minnesota must address him.
FREE THROW RATE
Minn: Offense 41.9%, Defense 35.3%
UCLA: Offense 32.9%, Defense 24.4%
Advantage: Too close to call
UCLA will likely want to focus on denying entry passes to Mbakwe and double him once he’s got the ball. Minnesota could realize a nice advantage if they commit to getting the ball inside early and the refs are willing to call fouls.
However, the Bruins are one of the best in the nation at not sending their opponents to the line. There have been only two contests all season in which UCLA’s opponent had a free throw rate better than Minnesota’s average of 41.9%. Something must give. How things unfold in the first several minutes of the game could be very telling.
The Bruins don’t get to the line often (again, they like to take jump shots), but Minnesota’s defense has given up a free throw rate of 40% or more 12 times this season. Adding to the concern, five of those times have come in the last seven games.
OTHER NOTES
“Finish Him!”
The Bruins have come back after falling behind numerous times and they have won a lot of close games. Don’t believe those who might suggest UCLA isn’t a good comeback candidate because they don’t shoot 3-pointers. Minnesota can’t afford to let their foot off the gas if they gain the upper hand.
Just last week UCLA came back from being down by double-digits in their first two Pac-12 tourney games. The Bruins are 11-2 in games decided by five points or fewer this season.
Earlier this year they trailed Texas 61-53 with 3:02 to play and a win probability of around 2 percent. The Bruins won 65-63. Against Missouri with just over four minutes to play in regulation UCLA trailed by 9. They would go on to tie it and later win in overtime.
Keep the Ball, Win the Game
UCLA has won seven games this year despite having a lower eFG% than their opponent. Most often it’s been the turnover margin that made them a winner. Gophers guard Andre Hollins is a key to their offense, but he has the opportunity to be a hero on defense if he can turn Larry Drew II over several times.
One Minute
None of UCLA’s players have ever played a second in the NCAA tournament for the Bruins. Only Rodney Williams (1 minute) has logged time in an NCAA tournament game for the Gophers. (Trevor Mbakwe (one minute) and Larry Drew II (sparingly as a backup behind 2009 Minnesota Timberwolves draft pick Ty Lawson for national champion North Carolina) appeared with other schools.)
Ben Howland
In his 10-years as head coach at UCLA, Ben Howland has brought the program to the NCAA tournament seven times. The Bruins have won their regular conference championship in four of the past eight seasons and have posted a 233-106 record (.687) during Howland’s tenure.