Less high school kids more transfers

[btowngopher]

Is this the formula? Spend your NIL on about 15 high school kids and get the rest through the portal? Gets you an experienced roster and less wasting of resources on kids that transfer after a year.

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

Depends on the situation and team I think.

A lot of portal guys simply don't get picked up by anyone ...

You could in theory do a lot of portal, and still highly rely on high school more than portal.

 

[Some guy]

It is probably cheaper to build depth with high school players

But I don’t know

 

[PMWinSTP]

Is this the formula? Spend your NIL on about 15 high school kids and get the rest through the portal? Gets you an experienced roster and less wasting of resources on kids that transfer after a year.

Where are you seeing that?

 

[btowngopher]

Where are you seeing that?

Wasn’t really looking for it…but turns out Indiana isn’t far off…17, 23, 19 high school enrollees the past three years.

 

[btowngopher]

It is probably cheaper to build depth with high school players

But I don’t know

Is it? What’s the price for a four star high schooler vs a three star transfer? The four star high schooler probably still has to develop for some time in most cases before being a contributor. Take Kollock for example, is he more expensive now? I’m sure there are bargains to be found either route, but the transfer is likely never a waste unless your evaluation was off. The high schooler can be everything you dreamed of, but if you can’t get him to stay it’s money thrown away.

 

[Some guy]

Is it? What’s the price for a four star high schooler vs a three star transfer? The four star high schooler probably still has to develop for some time in most cases before being a contributor. Take Kollock for example, is he more expensive now? I’m sure there are bargains to be found either route, but the transfer is likely never a waste unless your evaluation was off. The high schooler can be everything you dreamed of, but if you can’t get him to stay it’s money thrown away.

taking a bad 22 year old is worse than taking a bad 18 year old

At least the 18 year old may get better

 

[btowngopher]

taking a bad 22 year old is worse than taking a bad 18 year old

At least the 18 year old may get better

The bad 22 year old is gone faster, the 18 year old has to be convinced to leave if you want him gone.

 

[Some guy]

The bad 22 year old is gone faster, the 18 year old has to be convinced to leave if you want him gone.

No he doesnt
You tell him he is gone

It isn’t 2019 anymore

 

[PMWinSTP]

Wasn’t really looking for it…but turns out Indiana isn’t far off…17, 23, 19 high school enrollees the past three years.

I see 22 for 2026. Those numbers are not that much different. 2020 class had 20, 2019 class had 23.

 

[btowngopher]

I see 22 for 2026. Those numbers are not that much different. 2020 class had 20, 2019 class had 23.

My bad, was looking at enrollees. Regardless, I still think it’s a plan that makes a lot of sense. Not sure what you’re referencing 2019 and 2020 for.

 

[btowngopher]

No he doesnt
You tell him he is gone

It isn’t 2019 anymore

Not sure it’s as simple as that, but if it is, you can do the same thing with an older player and go get a different one.

 

[Some guy]

Not sure it’s as simple as that, but if it is, you can do the same thing with an older player and go get a different one.

Yeah

I am saying equal talent the younger player is cheaper.

I could be wrong

 

[PMWinSTP]

My bad, was looking at enrollees. Regardless, I still think it’s a plan that makes a lot of sense. Not sure what you’re referencing 2019 and 2020 for.

Because 2021 was when the rules changed.

 

[The Deliberate Stranger]

Is this the formula? Spend your NIL on about 15 high school kids and get the rest through the portal? Gets you an experienced roster and less wasting of resources on kids that transfer after a year.

Seems like we are taking the opposite approach although we brought in quite a few transfers as well

 

[50PoundHead]

I think it's going to take a few years for things to shake out before I think patterns or successful recruiting/portal strategies truly develop. Part of me thinks that a lot of high 3-star guys will be heading to lower-profile schools to build up their performance portfolios. Hard to say at this point.

 

[GopherTheJugular]

I think it's going to take a few years for things to shake out before I think patterns or successful recruiting/portal strategies truly develop. Part of me thinks that a lot of high 3-star guys will be heading to lower-profile schools to build up their performance portfolios. Hard to say at this point.

I kinda agree, especially when you see what happened to Jackson Kollack. Pretty much a year prior he was a highly regarded recruit with multiple options. One year on the bench and he might not have a good offer to play somewhere.

 

[MaxyJR1]

I like more HS kids that you can evaluate/develop for a year and then pay or cut loose after a season. Fill needs with Transfers for upper classes and continue to develop. I like the way Fleck is building rosters.

It will be interesting to see how Fleck proceeds at QB if Drake blows up and leaves or faulters and needs to be replaced. Can QB be treated like other positions of development?

 

[Random Guy 12]

I like more HS kids that you can evaluate/develop for a year and then pay or cut loose after a season. Fill needs with Transfers for upper classes and continue to develop. I like the way Fleck is building rosters.

It will be interesting to see how Fleck proceeds at QB if Drake blows up and leaves or faulters and needs to be replaced. Can QB be treated like other positions of development?

Isn't it still policy in the B1G that when you recruit/offer a HS kid its a 4 year offer? I'm not making an argument on if it's right or wrong at this point but are we cutting or shoving out underachieving scholarship players?

 

[btowngopher]

Isn't it still policy in the B1G that when you recruit/offer a HS kid its a 4 year offer? I'm not making an argument on if it's right or wrong at this point but are we cutting or shoving out underachieving scholarship players?

I think this is the case despite popular opinion.

 

[GreasyGopher]

I think this is the case despite popular opinion.

NIL seems to be year to year though.

Don’t offer NIL for the following year and I’m sure the kid will find another opportunity regardless of how long his scholarship may last.

 

[Scottsdale Gopher]

I like more HS kids that you can evaluate/develop for a year and then pay or cut loose after a season. Fill needs with Transfers for upper classes and continue to develop. I like the way Fleck is building rosters.

It will be interesting to see how Fleck proceeds at QB if Drake blows up and leaves or faulters and needs to be replaced. Can QB be treated like other positions of development?

QB will be a fascinating one to watch for every team. Michigan paid big money to land Underwood and likely would have been a better team this season if they spent on an older player instead. Contracts are still being tested and I suspect that contract enforceability will ultimately dictate how teams approach QB roster management.

 

[Torres9]

Fewer

 

[MNVCGUY]

NIL seems to be year to year though.

Don’t offer NIL for the following year and I’m sure the kid will find another opportunity regardless of how long his scholarship may last.

Would assume the same would apply to revenue sharing money.

 

[GophersInIowa]

Are the top players the Gophers are getting out of HS really taking up that much of the NIL money?

 

[GreasyGopher]

Would assume the same would apply to revenue sharing money.

Yeah, I’d lump those two together too. I think both are handled through the school now.

 

[btowngopher]

Are the top players the Gophers are getting out of HS really taking up that much of the NIL money?

I assume most players with multiple offers will be able to command some type of NIL leverage.

 

[BigGopher69]

Cannot build team culture with a roster full of guys that transfer every year

 

[btowngopher]

Cannot build team culture with a roster full of guys that transfer every year

Did Indiana not have a bunch of transfers?

 

[SeaBee_Gopher]

QB will be a fascinating one to watch for every team. Michigan paid big money to land Underwood and likely would have been a better team this season if they spent on an older player instead. Contracts are still being tested and I suspect that contract enforceability will ultimately dictate how teams approach QB roster management.

I agree with you.

247 top HIGH SCHOOL QB recruits:

2023 - Arch Manning, Nico Iamaleava, Dante Moore
2024 - Julian Sayin, DJ Lagway, Dylan Raiola
2025 - Bryce Underwood, Keelon Russell, Tavien St. Clair
2026 - Jared Curtis, Lamar Brown, Keisean Henderson


247 top TRANSFER PORTAL QB recruits:

2026 - Sam Leavitt, Brendan Sorsby, Drew Mestemaker, DJ Lagway, Dylan Raiola, Darian Mensah​

I remember hearing the most about teams fighting over and getting into bidding wars over QBs in the 2023 high school recruiting class. Every year since, we've heard less and less about that and more about teams fighting over PROVEN QBs in the portal. I've heard almost nothing about the 2026 top high school QBs above, but the headlines have been full of news about the portal QBs. It seems obvious that highly rated high school recruits will be paid less over time at the expense of higher paid players in the portal. It makes sense too. Guys in the portal are older, more mature, more proven, and so are more likely to actually contribute sooner. Unfortunately, you might just be training up your high school guys to help someone else.

Another thing I just heard today on a podcast specifically about QB is the level of play is now maybe 30% at the pro level & 70% college level. What they meant is at the highest college levels almost all the teams have good to excellent QBs now. If a team doesn't recruit well, they just go buy one. This has increased the difference between high school and top level college QB play making the learning curve even steeper for high school recruits, diminishing their value further.

With five year eligibility likely on the way and more good players staying in college longer, the age and experience level difference between high school and college players will continue to increase, again further diminishing the value of high school recruits.

On the other hand, high school players will probably still be very important in filling out your roster because they will cost less. Building a roster almost entirely from good portal players will be very expensive and only available for an elite few.