Lack of Ability to Scout and/or Develop Offensive Skill Recruits is the Real Problem

[StudentSectionMenace]

I did a deep dive into the offensive stats of the Gophers since 2021. I went into expecting to find some sort of glaring flaw or a statistical outlier that shows how incompetent of a coach PJ Fleck is on offense. The thing is... I found nothing. Not including last year, we don't punt more than the average team, we kick an average amount of field goals. The only two stats that were relatively low were touchdowns per game and yards per play. But these stats were not significant outliers. To me, this shows that historically, Fleck is not typically as uber-conservative as he has been recently. In fact, I found evidence that the style Fleck strives for, can and does lead to National Championships (i.e. Michigan last year). In fact, a number of teams have made the CFP playing a similar style of ball. So what's the difference? Its talent, or lack there of. I don't blame NIL for this either. We have gotten quality ranked recruits and transfers in recent years. Rankings wise they are much better than the recruits Kill brought in or Fleck earlier in his tenure. But look back at the last five recruiting classes, how many names on there that developed into impact contributors on offense? Three maybe Four? We had five in 2017s class alone. Even the players that transfer out (with the exception of Bucky Irving) have gone on to have very lackluster careers. Our offensive transfers have mostly been busts too. Elijah Spencer, who was a four star transfer, has yet hasn't put up 100 yards total in his career as a Gopher. Sean Tyler and Corey Crooms were disasters to name a couple. Busts happen, but to the extent it has happened in recent years leads me to believe our scouting department is more than lack luster.

In terms of development, it isn't great either. When is the last time an offensive skill player has come out in his junior/senior year and impressed you with their development? Daniel Jackson and Spann-Ford are the only ones I can think of in recent years. Kaliakmanis regressed, Morgan had near identical stats in his freshman and super senior seasons (his junior and senior seasons were also very similar), Mo Ibrahim averaged the same yards per carry his entire career, and CRAB never reached his potential, even before the injury. That is not mention that countless of recruits that have come in and have yet to make any significant contributions on the field.

Fleck is right when he says he doesn't have the talent to successfully play his style of football. But this falls on him. He either has to adjust his style to fit the players he has or figure out how to scout and develop better.

TLDR: The problem isn't Fleck's style of football rather it is the ability to scout and develop offensive talent

 

[MaxyJR1]

Our offensive guys are not performing or getting picked to play at the next level like those on defense. That could be talent and development, but it can also be scheme. It's probably harder to evaluate guys on our offense when we are traditionally 60/40, run/pass and struggle to score.

I would say the outlier is what we do on 3rd down. Are we just making the FG a shorter attempt by running or are we trying to pick up the first down? Our redzone offense is hard to watch and it is magnified by a lack of big plays.

We played a comparable P5 last week. Let's see how the next 3 weeks go with non conference and Iowa.

 

[Spaulding!No!]

Crooms wasn’t a disaster

 

[upnorthkid]

I did a deep dive into the offensive stats of the Gophers since 2021. I went into expecting to find some sort of glaring flaw or a statistical outlier that shows how incompetent of a coach PJ Fleck is on offense. The thing is... I found nothing. Not including last year, we don't punt more than the average team, we kick an average amount of field goals. The only two stats that were relatively low were touchdowns per game and yards per play. But these stats were not significant outliers. To me, this shows that historically, Fleck is not typically as uber-conservative as he has been recently. In fact, I found evidence that the style Fleck strives for, can and does lead to National Championships (i.e. Michigan last year). In fact, a number of teams have made the CFP playing a similar style of ball. So what's the difference? Its talent, or lack there of. I don't blame NIL for this either. We have gotten quality ranked recruits and transfers in recent years. Rankings wise they are much better than the recruits Kill brought in or Fleck earlier in his tenure. But look back at the last five recruiting classes, how many names on there that developed into impact contributors on offense? Three maybe Four? We had five in 2017s class alone. Even the players that transfer out (with the exception of Bucky Irving) have gone on to have very lackluster careers. Our offensive transfers have mostly been busts too. Elijah Spencer, who was a four star transfer, has yet hasn't put up 100 yards total in his career as a Gopher. Sean Tyler and Corey Crooms were disasters to name a couple. Busts happen, but to the extent it has happened in recent years leads me to believe our scouting department is more than lack luster.

In terms of development, it isn't great either. When is the last time an offensive skill player has come out in his junior/senior year and impressed you with their development? Daniel Jackson and Spann-Ford are the only ones I can think of in recent years. Kaliakmanis regressed, Morgan had near identical stats in his freshman and super senior seasons (his junior and senior seasons were also very similar), Mo Ibrahim averaged the same yards per carry his entire career, and CRAB never reached his potential, even before the injury. That is not mention that countless of recruits that have come in and have yet to make any significant contributions on the field.

Fleck is right when he says he doesn't have the talent to successfully play his style of football. But this falls on him. He either has to adjust his style to fit the players he has or figure out how to scout and develop better.

TLDR: The problem isn't Fleck's style of football rather it is the ability to scout and develop offensive talent

i mean we're almost 2/3 to 1/3 running the ball every year (and this is the important part), which when you're Michigan and winning that makes perfect sense. Similar you would expect that in a year such as our 2019 year when we were winning a lot of our games and trying to keep TOP. The problem is that he also does this to inferior opponents PRIOR to being up multiple scores and when losing. You would expect in seasons with worse records, we would throw the ball more to try to catch up, score more points, take more chances, but he does not. That's a scheme issue.

I do agree with you 100% he has done a poor job with recruiting skill position guys outside of RBs and Bateman. That said, in what world would any skill position guy want to come here knowing we're going to run it 65% of the time and when we pass it, it's often out of RPO and slants over the middle with minimal downfield play? It's just not a wr friendly system and you're not going to get top tier guys in that fashion. then you're having to scrape further down the lists or take guys who were run off elsewhere, and they've seemingly missed on developing any guys internally (BSF should've been so much more, never developed Crooms as a slot guy though I disagree on calling him a disaster, Bateman's solo season he was very poorly utilized and I don't blame him for cutting out early).

It's a highly QB and WR unfriendly system that throws the ball on difficult downs and has a lot of higher difficulty throws (there are minimal short drags, short sticks, etc., which we saw Brosmer hit multiple times and they for some stupid reason decided not to do that until the last 2 minutes). Give the guys some easy throws, pop passes, outside screens (this is supposed to be a huge part of an RPO scheme that we for whatever reason choose to not utilize) that get the ball in the perimeter guys' hands. Those are fun plays for them and the best way to sell perimeter recruits to come here is to show them they are not primarily blockers. Skill and speed on the outside has been a glaring issue with this team. Some of that is scheme (when you have a limited route tree you're easy to cover) but I don't think we're getting as high impact of recruits as we think we are at those spots compared to those we're getting elsewhere.

We're 2nd to last in avg recruit rating this year in the B10. Our skill guys on offense offer sheets are... not good.

Lyons WR: Ark, Kan, Wash St, Or St, Utah
Martino Ath/WR: Louisville, Mich St, MS St, OR St, NC St, Pitt
Nimmo TE: Ill, Louisville, Rutgers
Begalle WR: No P4
Marshall RB: No P4
Washington RB: No P4
Kollock QB: Cal, Colo, Or St, Wash, Wash St

The D recruits add'l offers are much better.

 

[MonikerSchmoniker45]

Maybe elite athletes aren't interested in going to class or doing regular community service?

 

[Bayfield Gopher]

I'm with upnorthkid.

Fleck will never be able to recruit the high quality skilled athletes with his run first, ultra conservative philosophy and his inability to win big and often. They have no interest in coming to Minnesota. None. This is not just his problem but its the same for the majority of schools not named Georgia, Alabama, OSU, Oregon, Micigan, etc.

Not just the upper tier, as he has been bringing up the rear against schools such as Iowa, UNC, etc. and likely others coming soon such as USC, Washington and maybe even UCLA.

Coyle will need to have some tough breakfast conversations if Fleck does a repeat of 2023. The fans are getting restless. The PJ glitz is fading. Count me in.

 

[60's Guy]

I'd say it's lots of stuff offensively. The guys we recruit and more importantly the opportunities we give them.
We are doing nothing fun for fans or players. No traditional screens, no jet sweeps, no bubble screens outside, slants are free money...we don't do them anymore. No passes to backs in space.
All the stuff that gives players an opportunity to be a playmaker. We have no playmakers....is that recruiting or is that we don't put anybody in position to be a playmaker?
Our offense is rarely surprising or fun. We might break a run, we might hit a pass but do we ever surprise anybody or illicit a "Whoa, that was awesome! Did not see that coming." We don't scheme anybody for a big play or a fun play.

 

[60's Guy]

i mean we're almost 2/3 to 1/3 running the ball every year (and this is the important part), which when you're Michigan and winning that makes perfect sense. Similar you would expect that in a year such as our 2019 year when we were winning a lot of our games and trying to keep TOP. The problem is that he also does this to inferior opponents PRIOR to being up multiple scores and when losing. You would expect in seasons with worse records, we would throw the ball more to try to catch up, score more points, take more chances, but he does not. That's a scheme issue.

I do agree with you 100% he has done a poor job with recruiting skill position guys outside of RBs and Bateman. That said, in what world would any skill position guy want to come here knowing we're going to run it 65% of the time and when we pass it, it's often out of RPO and slants over the middle with minimal downfield play? It's just not a wr friendly system and you're not going to get top tier guys in that fashion. then you're having to scrape further down the lists or take guys who were run off elsewhere, and they've seemingly missed on developing any guys internally (BSF should've been so much more, never developed Crooms as a slot guy though I disagree on calling him a disaster, Bateman's solo season he was very poorly utilized and I don't blame him for cutting out early).

It's a highly QB and WR unfriendly system that throws the ball on difficult downs and has a lot of higher difficulty throws (there are minimal short drags, short sticks, etc., which we saw Brosmer hit multiple times and they for some stupid reason decided not to do that until the last 2 minutes). Give the guys some easy throws, pop passes, outside screens (this is supposed to be a huge part of an RPO scheme that we for whatever reason choose to not utilize) that get the ball in the perimeter guys' hands. Those are fun plays for them and the best way to sell perimeter recruits to come here is to show them they are not primarily blockers. Skill and speed on the outside has been a glaring issue with this team. Some of that is scheme (when you have a limited route tree you're easy to cover) but I don't think we're getting as high impact of recruits as we think we are at those spots compared to those we're getting elsewhere.

We're 2nd to last in avg recruit rating this year in the B10. Our skill guys on offense offer sheets are... not good.

Lyons WR: Ark, Kan, Wash St, Or St, Utah
Martino Ath/WR: Louisville, Mich St, MS St, OR St, NC St, Pitt
Nimmo TE: Ill, Louisville, Rutgers
Begalle WR: No P4
Marshall RB: No P4
Washington RB: No P4
Kollock QB: Cal, Colo, Or St, Wash, Wash St

The D recruits add'l offers are much better.

Yup

 

[upnorthkid]

I'm with upnorthkid.

Fleck will never be able to recruit the high quality skilled athletes with his run first, ultra conservative philosophy and his inability to win big and often. They have no interest in coming to Minnesota. None. This is not just his problem but its the same for the majority of schools not named Georgia, Alabama, OSU, Oregon, Micigan, etc.

Not just the upper tier, as he has been bringing up the rear against schools such as Iowa, UNC, etc. and likely others coming soon such as USC, Washington and maybe even UCLA.

Coyle will need to have some tough breakfast conversations if Fleck does a repeat of 2023. The fans are getting restless. The PJ glitz is fading. Count me in.

its actually super interesting you bring Michigan into this. Scheme matters. Michigan coaches have been quoted saying they felt lucky they stayed healthy at WR last year d/t lack of depth/impact players.

2021: andrel anthony (left, Oklahoma), cristian dixon (left, central missouri state)
2022: Tyler Morris (3/15 against Fresno, 13 catches last year for 1 TD), Darrius Clemons (left, Or St), Amorion Walker (1 catch 2 years ago),
2023: Karmello English (left, West Georgia), Semaj Morgan (22 catches last year; they're hoping he'll be a big impact guy this year but got minimal space vs Fresno), Fredrick Moore (he's playing ST), Kendrick Bell (QB recruit, 1 catch)

Michigan 4 plus stars since 2021 at WR: 4 (two left team, one is a FR this year). Style absolutely hurts you on recruiting those big time guys.

 

[Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0]

Can better skill position players help the right side of the OL block better? Asking for a friend!

 

[Wally]

I'd say it's lots of stuff offensively. The guys we recruit and more importantly the opportunities we give them.
We are doing nothing fun for fans or players. No traditional screens, no jet sweeps, no bubble screens outside, slants are free money...we don't do them anymore. No passes to backs in space.
All the stuff that gives players an opportunity to be a playmaker. We have no playmakers....is that recruiting or is that we don't put anybody in position to be a playmaker?
Our offense is rarely surprising or fun. We might break a run, we might hit a pass but do we ever surprise anybody or illicit a "Whoa, that was awesome! Did not see that coming." We don't scheme anybody for a big play or a fun play.

North Carolina got us with a great play call towards the end of the game. I was sitting there wishing we had something like that.

 

[IrishGoph55]

Feel like we need taller WR’s

 

[short ornery norwegian]

beating a dead horse here --

as Tom Kelly said, the job of a coach/manager is to put his players in a position where they have the best chance of success and the lowest risk of failure.

in other words, figure out what a player does best, and ask him to do that. if there's something he doesn't do well, don't ask him to do that.

Fleck - IMHO - is one of those coaches who tries to fit players into his system instead of tailoring the system to fit the players.

to be sure - you can win playing Fleck's way - but that makes it even more important that you recruit players who fit the system.

 

[MonikerSchmoniker45]

North Carolina got us with a great play call towards the end of the game. I was sitting there wishing we had something like that.

Was it the option pass play where their lineman was ten yards down field?

 

[MNVCGUY]

as Tom Kelly said, the job of a coach/manager is to put his players in a position where they have the best chance of success and the lowest risk of failure.

in other words, figure out what a player does best, and ask him to do that. if there's something he doesn't do well, don't ask him to do that.

Fleck - IMHO - is one of those coaches who tries to fit players into his system instead of tailoring the system to fit the players.

It could be argued Fleck is doing the first two things already. He is running the system he feels his players are best equipped to run and not trying to do the things they are not good at.

2019 would dispute the last part of your post. They had elite receivers and a QB very good at making the right decisions and getting them the ball. Offense looked very different that season then it has in others. Almost like they tailored it to fit the personnel they had.

 

[fmlizard]

For a school that's thought of as a power football program, Minnesota has had one OL drafted in 20 years. Faalele has started one game in 2022 for Baltimore, and I believe that was the only NFL OL start for a Gopher player since Mark Setterstrom in 2007.

wisconsin and iowa have had a bunch of first round linemen in that stretch and their guys dot rosters all over the NFL.

The Gophers had an absolute beast of a TE around here for years who they didn't get much out of but the Cowboys put on their 53-man.

I think we may be looking in the wrong places for why the offense isn't what we wish.

 

[Spaulding!No!]

Was it the option pass play where their lineman was ten yards down field?

Imma go rewatch this. The play was in front of me and I missed the foul.

 

[GophersInIowa]

I did a deep dive into the offensive stats of the Gophers since 2021. I went into expecting to find some sort of glaring flaw or a statistical outlier that shows how incompetent of a coach PJ Fleck is on offense. The thing is... I found nothing. Not including last year, we don't punt more than the average team, we kick an average amount of field goals. The only two stats that were relatively low were touchdowns per game and yards per play. But these stats were not significant outliers. To me, this shows that historically, Fleck is not typically as uber-conservative as he has been recently. In fact, I found evidence that the style Fleck strives for, can and does lead to National Championships (i.e. Michigan last year). In fact, a number of teams have made the CFP playing a similar style of ball. So what's the difference? Its talent, or lack there of. I don't blame NIL for this either. We have gotten quality ranked recruits and transfers in recent years. Rankings wise they are much better than the recruits Kill brought in or Fleck earlier in his tenure. But look back at the last five recruiting classes, how many names on there that developed into impact contributors on offense? Three maybe Four? We had five in 2017s class alone. Even the players that transfer out (with the exception of Bucky Irving) have gone on to have very lackluster careers. Our offensive transfers have mostly been busts too. Elijah Spencer, who was a four star transfer, has yet hasn't put up 100 yards total in his career as a Gopher. Sean Tyler and Corey Crooms were disasters to name a couple. Busts happen, but to the extent it has happened in recent years leads me to believe our scouting department is more than lack luster.

In terms of development, it isn't great either. When is the last time an offensive skill player has come out in his junior/senior year and impressed you with their development? Daniel Jackson and Spann-Ford are the only ones I can think of in recent years. Kaliakmanis regressed, Morgan had near identical stats in his freshman and super senior seasons (his junior and senior seasons were also very similar), Mo Ibrahim averaged the same yards per carry his entire career, and CRAB never reached his potential, even before the injury. That is not mention that countless of recruits that have come in and have yet to make any significant contributions on the field.

Fleck is right when he says he doesn't have the talent to successfully play his style of football. But this falls on him. He either has to adjust his style to fit the players he has or figure out how to scout and develop better.

TLDR: The problem isn't Fleck's style of football rather it is the ability to scout and develop offensive talent

Weird bringing up Mo and CRAB as those are actually good examples of really good development. CRAB was not highly rated at all and was set to go to Western Michigan.

The examples of the transfers actually tell me it is Fleck's style. Guys like Spencer and Tyler were very successful in other systems (albeit lower levels). That means they have the talent.

 

[GophersInIowa]

It could be argued Fleck is doing the first two things already. He is running the system he feels his players are best equipped to run and not trying to do the things they are not good at.

2019 would dispute the last part of your post. They had elite receivers and a QB very good at making the right decisions and getting them the ball. Offense looked very different that season then it has in others. Almost like they tailored it to fit the personnel they had.

The 2019 team was still a run first team. They just had a lot more success when they did throw the ball.

 

[MNVCGUY]

The 2019 team was still a run first team. They just had a lot more success when they did throw the ball.

True but it was also a very balanced team. The ratio of run to pass can be skewed as long as both facets of the offense are productive.

 

[StudentSectionMenace]

Weird bringing up Mo and CRAB as those are actually good examples of really good development. CRAB was not highly rated at all and was set to go to Western Michigan.

Mo and Crab burst onto the scene their freshman year and never really improved beyond what they were then. I would consider that good recruiting scouting and poor development after. Like Morgan, CRAB's season stats were relatively the same throughout his career. Mo put up crazy stats, but it could be argued that was due to more opportunities rather than development. Mo averaged 5.4 yards per carry every season in his career (not that he had much to improve on, but again point to good scouting rather than talent development).

 

[upnorthkid]

Mo and Crab burst onto the scene their freshman year and never really improved beyond what they were then. I would consider that good recruiting scouting and poor development after. Like Morgan, CRAB's season stats were relatively the same throughout his career. Mo put up crazy stats, but it could be argued that was due to more opportunities rather than development. Mo averaged 5.4 yards per carry every season in his career (not that he had much to improve on, but again point to good scouting rather than talent development).

I have no idea why this is listing me as quoted

 

[GophersInIowa]

Mo and Crab burst onto the scene their freshman year and never really improved beyond what they were then. I would consider that good recruiting scouting and poor development after. Like Morgan, CRAB's season stats were relatively the same throughout his career. Mo put up crazy stats, but it could be argued that was due to more opportunities rather than development. Mo averaged 5.4 yards per carry every season in his career (not that he had much to improve on, but again point to good scouting rather than talent development).

You're crazy if you think both of those guys didn't improve. Mo still averaged over 5 yards a carry even with no passing game and teams game planning to stop him specifically. Covid and injury is what prevented CRAB from taking off. He was on pace for an 800 yard season the Covid year. Stats don't tell the whole story.

I agree that lack of development has been an issue on the offensive side of the ball. I just think these are two bad examples.

 

[Spaulding!No!]

The 2019 team was still a run first team. They just had a lot more success when they did throw the ball.

Tanner was dropping dimes. Never saw a goph qb do that

 

[touchdownvikings]

John

For a school that's thought of as a power football program, Minnesota has had one OL drafted in 20 years. Faalele has started one game in 2022 for Baltimore, and I believe that was the only NFL OL start for a Gopher player since Mark Setterstrom in 2007.

wisconsin and iowa have had a bunch of first round linemen in that stretch and their guys dot rosters all over the NFL.

The Gophers had an absolute beast of a TE around here for years who they didn't get much out of but the Cowboys put on their 53-man.

I think we may be looking in the wrong places for why the offense isn't what we wish.

John Michael Schmitz says hello.

Ko Kieft says what's up?

And Aireontae Ersery will be saying ciao next year.

 

[fmlizard]

John

John Michael Schmitz says hello.

Ko Kieft says what's up?

And Aireontae Ersery will be saying ciao next year.

Damn, I admit to missing JMS. Duh.

Kieft isn't a lineman.

I look forward to Ersery in the league next year. There still haven't been nearly enough hogs coming out of the U compared to our peer schools.

 

[gopherbadgerman]

At the end of the day the players aren’t that good overall. Look at flecks average recruiting ranking over the past 5-6 years, that’s about how good the gophers are.