King of the 3 Stars: Can Minnesota keep winning as a Developmental program in Revamped Big Ten?

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PJ Fleck is using the Transfer Portal effectively.
 



See no reason why Fleck can't keep having a similar level of success in the conference. If we can make 9-10 win seasons the norm that is probably the ceiling for programs like Minnesota/Wisconsin/Iowa in the current college football landscape.

As long as they can keep using the portal effectively and keep finding quality high school kids the success of the past few seasons should continue. With the occasional year like 2019 in the mix as well.
 



The new big ten makes it harder to win 11-12 games for the gophers.
I’m not sure the difference in difficulty winning 8-9 is all that different.
 

The Gophers have been able to adapt to change. They know their strength as a stable developmental program. They have been able to keep up with players transferring out by getting desirable replacements. Will it be enough to move up to higher achievements? Time will tell.

Indefatigable PJ Fleck is our man!
 




Whatever the challenges are for Minnesota in the new Big Ten, I’ll take PJ to be the coach to grapple with them. He is a tireless recruiter who seeks out rising stars and diamonds in the rough (rather than chasing ego-inflated highly ranked kids who might feign interest but aren’t coming here). He has joined our community and recruits to our region’s plentiful strengths rather than bitching about our well-known weaknesses. His energy and positivity are a plus for all but the most dour. What other coach would you want to handle, on behalf of Minnesota, the challenges of the new Big Ten?
 

Generally speaking teams outside of top 20 in recruiting have classes largely made up for 3 stars. Teams outside of the top 40 have very recruits that aren’t 3 stars for the most part also. Obviously the top 20 teams will have some form of reoccurring success but there are roughly 100 other teams that will also sustain decent programs and they will do so with 90% 2/3 star players that develop.

In the B1G the last few years only Mich, MSU, PSU, and OSU take significant percentages of their class from 4/5 star players. Everyone else, including us, take 75% 3 star and snag a few players above that level. By this metric the vast majority of CFB programs are developmental. These developmental teams may not have the same level of success or continuity but sometimes like teams Miami and USC can also have stretches of tough years. All this to say the star system isn’t the end all be all and teams can shift within their respective spectrum of their expectations. The transfer portal changes things but there will always be a lot of teams that have long stretches of success with a roster that’s 95% made of 3 stars.
 

I think the "revamped" B1G is the key to the OP.

with East/West divisions, the Gophers' developmental system worked well enough so that the Gophers were at least in contention for a division title most seasons.

when the divisions go away, the Gophers have to finish 1st or 2nd to make the Conference Championship. that is a more difficult proposition, especially when you add USC to the mix. If the Gophers want to play for a conference title, they have to potentially finish in front of a Michigan, a Penn State, a USC - and of course finish in front of WI and IA.

so the question is - does the system that generally worked for the Gophers in a divisional setup still work in a non-divisional setup? Or do the Gophers have to find some way (hint - requires $$$$) to attract more top-level players if they want to move into the top tier of conference teams?
 

Some guy said:
The new big ten makes it harder to win 11-12 games for the gophers.
I’m not sure the difference in difficulty winning 8-9 is all that different.
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It is hard for almost all P5 or B1G teams, period. Looks like 10 teams in FBS out of 131 achieved 11 or more wins last year. Honestly don't think it changes the difficulty for Gophers with the added teams and no divisions.
 



short ornery norwegian said:
I think the "revamped" B1G is the key to the OP.

with East/West divisions, the Gophers' developmental system worked well enough so that the Gophers were at least in contention for a division title most seasons.

when the divisions go away, the Gophers have to finish 1st or 2nd to make the Conference Championship. that is a more difficult proposition, especially when you add USC to the mix. If the Gophers want to play for a conference title, they have to potentially finish in front of a Michigan, a Penn State, a USC - and of course finish in front of WI and IA.

so the question is - does the system that generally worked for the Gophers in a divisional setup still work in a non-divisional setup? Or do the Gophers have to find some way (hint - requires $$$$) to attract more top-level players if they want to move into the top tier of conference teams?
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I think if they win games they "aren't supposed to win" that can help the program and make up for lack of NIL $$ a little bit. This season, if they can beat Iowa, upset either OSU or Michigan, and go to Indy, that will turn some heads and could lead to better recruiting.
 

From a schedule standpoint, most years you're really talking about one more game against the elite of the conference. Most years we play at least one against Ohio St, Michigan or Penn St already. We're rarely going to play more than two games against Ohio St, Michigan, Penn St or USC a year going forward.

As for recruiting, the thing that's surprised me after 2019 is that we haven't been able to land a few more 4-star guys like Bateman. 3-star is always going to be a bulk of the class but I figured we'd be getting a few more top 300-400 players. I think that's probably the key to taking the next step in success. Still focus on developing those 3 star guys but sprinkling in few more higher level talents.
 

GophersInIowa said:
From a schedule standpoint, most years you're really talking about one more game against the elite of the conference. Most years we play at least one against Ohio St, Michigan or Penn St already. We're rarely going to play more than two games against Ohio St, Michigan, Penn St or USC a year going forward.

As for recruiting, the thing that's surprised me after 2019 is that we haven't been able to land a few more 4-star guys like Bateman. 3-star is always going to be a bulk of the class but I figured we'd be getting a few more top 300-400 players. I think that's probably the key to taking the next step in success. Still focus on developing those 3 star guys but sprinkling in few more higher level talents.
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I think many, many out here thought that as well. The fallback for many now because that hasn't happened, is that the difference having 3-5 4* recruits year in and year out is negligable in translating into more wins year in and year out. I think Fleck is a very good recruiter, but also think consistently added those 3 to 5 4* players will start to translate into more wins and better odds in beating higher caliber teams with more consistency. Gophs have gotten to 8-9 wins the last few years without getting a win that they should not have gotten, if that makes sense.

For me, the glass is pretty much always half full for Gophs football. So even thought there are many who see this season as hard, I see the opportunity much like 2019...with the breakout player being at QB.
 

PMWinSTP said:
It is hard for almost all P5 or B1G teams, period. Looks like 10 teams in FBS out of 131 achieved 11 or more wins last year. Honestly don't think it changes the difficulty for Gophers with the added teams and no divisions.
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Correct. But the gophers are much less likely to get a schedule like the 2015 Iowa team in the new alignment

But everything you say I agree with 100%
It really doesn’t change much for the gophers other than it’s harder to have a 12-0 kind of schedule with a 10-2 kind of team (like 2015 Iowa)
 

I wouldn't call our program "developmental." I argue that the staff looks for guys who fit the culture, which is big on selflessness and the team dynamic, and most kids like that are three star caliber. I feel that many 4* and most, if not all 5* guys are heavy self marketers on social media with big egos, because they've been told by everyone, including recruiting rags, how great they are since day one. I don't think that works in this program. I also think that's why this team has done so well in avoiding off the field issues. Gimme a whole crew of 3* guys year in, year out if it means regular 8/9 win seasons with the occasional 10/11 win season peppered in there. This team has been a lot of fun to watch under this staff.
 

mngg11 said:
I wouldn't call our program "developmental." I argue that the staff looks for guys who fit the culture, which is big on selflessness and the team dynamic, and most kids like that are three star caliber. I feel that many 4* and most, if not all 5* guys are heavy self marketers on social media with big egos, because they've been told by everyone, including recruiting rags, how great they are since day one. I don't think that works in this program. I also think that's why this team has done so well in avoiding off the field issues. Gimme a whole crew of 3* guys year in, year out if it means regular 8/9 win seasons with the occasional 10/11 win season peppered in there. This team has been a lot of fun to watch under this staff.
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I respectfully disagree. I see the point you're making, but feel like it contradicts itself. You said, "The staff finds guys who fit the culture." The culture itself is developmental. The biggest reason PJ advertises the program as developmental is the focus on off-field success as well as on-field. It's a "life program." I do think you're right that 4 and 5 stars are more interested in guaranteeing NFL success than becoming a more well rounded person.
 

These are all good conversations. I marvel at the well-oiled organizational structure and culture that PJ Fleck has put together.

PJ Fleck embraces change very quickly. The Gophers' program is able to attract players from the Transfer Portal to improve talent levels and address depth issues.

There is reason for optimism. Listen to this podcast by College Football with Sam:

 

mngg11 said:
I wouldn't call our program "developmental." I argue that the staff looks for guys who fit the culture, which is big on selflessness and the team dynamic, and most kids like that are three star caliber. I feel that many 4* and most, if not all 5* guys are heavy self marketers on social media with big egos, because they've been told by everyone, including recruiting rags, how great they are since day one. I don't think that works in this program. I also think that's why this team has done so well in avoiding off the field issues. Gimme a whole crew of 3* guys year in, year out if it means regular 8/9 win seasons with the occasional 10/11 win season peppered in there. This team has been a lot of fun to watch under this staff.
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Fleck has only offered five 5* and 15 total top 100 composite players in the '24 class perhaps for this reason! He wants players with 5* attitudes I think is how he put it!
 

Is anyone out there winning without being a "developmental program"?

College football is the definition of a developmental program, in football and life.

Does anyone think Nick Saban and Kirby Smart are working with polished, can't miss, sure-thing finished products?

The CFP-level squads have guys with more natural physical ability. But these programs are still out there coaching these guys up. It's what separates Alabama and Georgia in recent years from Texas and Florida State.
 

mngg11 said:
I wouldn't call our program "developmental." I argue that the staff looks for guys who fit the culture, which is big on selflessness and the team dynamic, and most kids like that are three star caliber. I feel that many 4* and most, if not all 5* guys are heavy self marketers on social media with big egos, because they've been told by everyone, including recruiting rags, how great they are since day one. I don't think that works in this program. I also think that's why this team has done so well in avoiding off the field issues. Gimme a whole crew of 3* guys year in, year out if it means regular 8/9 win seasons with the occasional 10/11 win season peppered in there. This team has been a lot of fun to watch under this staff.
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Fleck's 2021 class needs to be more of the norm at this point. Like I said, the fallback now is that not getting 3-5 4* recruits consistently each year is not affecting their ability to win, so those higher recruits really don't matter. I think they do, and that keeps the recruiting monentum around the program high. That consistency is really the only recruiting related concern I have with Fleck. It doesn't take more that one or two 6-7 win seasons here in MN for recruiting to take a step or two back.
 

That doesn't stop PJ Fleck from sending out offers to 4- & 5-Star players. Some 4-Stars did not pan out for the Gophers. They are adept at finding their type of players.

The constant recruiting and out-recruiting of current players raises the level of excellence.
 

PMWinSTP said:
Fleck's 2021 class needs to be more of the norm at this point. Like I said, the fallback now is that not getting 3-5 4* recruits consistently each year is not affecting their ability to win, so those higher recruits really don't matter. I think they do, and that keeps the recruiting monentum around the program high. That consistency is really the only recruiting related concern I have with Fleck. It doesn't take more that one or two 6-7 win seasons here in MN for recruiting to take a step or two back.
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You make some valid, logical points. I still disagree that win totals make that much of a difference in recruiting at our current level of success, however. I'm too tired to argue though, shift work is a bitch. So I just disagree, that's it. 🙃
 

mngg11 said:
You make some valid, logical points. I still disagree that win totals make that much of a difference in recruiting at our current level of success, however. I'm too tired to argue though, shift work is a bitch. So I just disagree, that's it. 🙃
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People get caught up in the number of 4* or 3* recruits but lose sight of the fact that just being a 4* recruit doesn't guarantee anything. Sure the odds are maybe a little better that they will pan out long term but it still always comes down to finding the right players not the highest rated.

PW used the 21 class as an example of what needs to be the norm, presumably because of the 4 - 4* recruits in it.

Ortiz - Transferred down to a lower level school
Irving - Jumped ship to Oregon for a big Payday
Athan - Looks like he is going to be the real deal
Eastern - yet to make an impact but could bust through this year.

After Eastern - 3 of the next 4 highest rated recruits have transferred out with only Brockington still here. The rest of the class contains some guys who have yet to break through and a number of others who have transferred. The one hidden gem in that group was 3* Justin Walley.

I don't think anyone would argue that getting more 4* recruits isn't a good thing, but they have to be the right guys who pan out.

It actually gets kind of depressing looking at recruiting classes and seeing the number of guys that don't pan out on a year to year basis. Really the main reason why I put so little stock in recruiting rankings and would rather wait and see if a kid can actually play once they get here.
 

MNVCGUY said:
People get caught up in the number of 4* or 3* recruits but lose sight of the fact that just being a 4* recruit doesn't guarantee anything. Sure the odds are maybe a little better that they will pan out long term but it still always comes down to finding the right players not the highest rated.

PW used the 21 class as an example of what needs to be the norm, presumably because of the 4 - 4* recruits in it.

Ortiz - Transferred down to a lower level school
Irving - Jumped ship to Oregon for a big Payday
Athan - Looks like he is going to be the real deal
Eastern - yet to make an impact but could bust through this year.

After Eastern - 3 of the next 4 highest rated recruits have transferred out with only Brockington still here. The rest of the class contains some guys who have yet to break through and a number of others who have transferred. The one hidden gem in that group was 3* Justin Walley.

I don't think anyone would argue that getting more 4* recruits isn't a good thing, but they have to be the right guys who pan out.

It actually gets kind of depressing looking at recruiting classes and seeing the number of guys that don't pan out on a year to year basis. Really the main reason why I put so little stock in recruiting rankings and would rather wait and see if a kid can actually play once they get here.
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Stay away from gopher basketball.
 

For all of Fleck’s success, let’s get real here. No division championships. Not much success against the big 3- UM, PSU, OSU. A measure of success would be at least one division championship in the weak west. It is not going to get any easier next year. To be fair the gophers have a big hill to climb. Geography, low quality of Minn high school football relative to Pennsytvania, Ohio, and Michigan. Unfortunately ,Minneapolis’s reputation lately has not helped much either. NIL has opened the gap even more.
I’m not sure if any coach can overcome those hurdles. Fleck is like a used car salesman pitching a shiny car with a sketchy engine. The customer feels warm and fuzzy until the engine detonates at the end of the year 100 miles from home.
 

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