Just wins as a measure?

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monk10

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Here is the quote from Michigan's AD regarding Rich Rod.

"This crap about what’s the record got to be? It reduces those decisions to something so simplistic, it’s almost insulting. When you’re the director of athletics, and you’re looking at any program, not just football, any of our 27 sports, you have to look at the coach. You look at how we’re recruiting, who we’re recruiting, the information how we’re doing academically, get information about how we’re behaving ourselves in terms of our behavior and community service. You get a variety of inputs to measure the health of that program and the leadership that program is receiving and, based on a variety of inputs, you make decisions."
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I know Schnoodles has been a big person on the side of wins don't matter...yet. (can I bring the dots back?)

I personally think wins matter this year. Wins in the sense of getting to a bowl game (min 6). I don't know if we get 5 if that is the end of the era, but with the improved schedule, the excitement about the talent, the youth of the team, and the final quality in the coordinators I think wins don't mean much...yet.
 

We need to be realistic about the wins. I'm not saying we should gradually build wins at a Masonesque pace over a decade, but 13-13 over the past two years is pretty good for a guy who's been head coaching for three years and has experienced a coaching carousel every friggin year. This year, I don't think it's at all too much to expect a rivalry win. In fact, I demand one. But if we play hard in every other game and the final scores are indicative of that, I want to see Brew at the helm next year. We need Brew at the helm for consistency's sake.

Nevertheless, 5 wins minimum. I predict 9, though I'm a shameless homer who thinks in terms of NCAA 11. There's no way Cooper didn't improve his ratings by +6 overall this year ;)
 

frozengopher said:
Nevertheless, 5 wins minimum. I predict 9, though I'm a shameless homer who thinks in terms of NCAA 11. There's no way Cooper didn't improve his ratings by +6 overall this year ;)
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You know, I think we will win 8 games. It wasn't that long ago however that I said that and I was told, emphatically, that it was a mathematical impossibility. That said, I really don't think the number of wins matters this year.
 

frozengopher said:
We need to be realistic about the wins. I'm not saying we should gradually build wins at a Masonesque pace over a decade, but 13-13 over the past two years is pretty good for a guy who's been head coaching for three years and has experienced a coaching carousel every friggin year. This year, I don't think it's at all too much to expect a rivalry win. In fact, I demand one. But if we play hard in every other game and the final scores are indicative of that, I want to see Brew at the helm next year. We need Brew at the helm for consistency's sake.
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I completely agree. Wins are nice, but there's a big picture here. To me, we have to, HAVE TO nab one or two of the big home games (USC, PSU, OSU, or Iowa) for me to feel there was progress. Hell, a bad Purdue team took down OSU at home last year, why not us?

I'd also like to see Horton and Cosgrove get one more year to help maintain consistency. If we go thru another OC this year, my head might explode.
 

Life's to short to spend all your time wallowing in despair. There are some people who seem to need a head start on their despair, they have to start mourning the losses before the season starts. If you have that attitude, you'll spend the whole year miserable. I'd rather be disappointed a few times a year than to spend the whole year like that.
 


I posted this a few weeks back: The magic number is 6, but a win over Iowa or Wisky counts as 2. Back then I said beating USC counted for 1.5, and most folks disagreed with me on that one. In hindsight they were probably right. I concur with others in this thread that only 5 wins without winning a hardware game is unacceptable. And that glorified bowling trophy we play PSU for doesn't count.
 

Too Long in the Wasteland said:
I posted this a few weeks back: The magic number is 6, but a win over Iowa or Wisky counts as 2. Back then I said beating USC counted for 1.5, and most folks disagreed with me on that one. In hindsight they were probably right. I concur with others in this thread that only 5 wins without winning a hardware game is unacceptable. And that glorified bowling trophy we play PSU for doesn't count.
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I think 6 ends up being a very critical number for several reasons. The biggest reason is that at only 5 wins the season will have ended on 11/27/2010. And there will probably be a lot of great coaches ready to make a move on 11/28/2010. All that said, if the fifth win is against Iowa - no one is going to feel much like finding a new HC because it will seem like we're making some progress.

If you fire a head coach after a bowl game it's a bloody mess. And 6 wins would be decent considering the difficulty of this schedule. I like out odds of making it 7 (in a bowl game) if we get to 6.
 


Wins

Brewster has done a good job of being positive, promoting the program, securing talent and now has some pretty talented coordinators...however, people are going to expect more wins at some point...it was Maturi who hired a coach without any head coaching experience...that was his choice...unfortunately, that does not give Brewster some slack in the eyes of most fans...the argument about how many wins should be expected this season due to a tough schedule is also tough to stomach...he was hired to win against the best possible competition...look at who Warmath, Stoll, Salem and Gutekunst had to compete against...I don't think they were cut slack because they faced a tough schedule...in fact Warmath, Stoll and Salem were more beloved by the fan base than Brewster seems to be now...I don't think anyone gave Smokey Joe a pass when Nebraska beat them 84-13 because the Cornhuskers were #1 in the nation...that said, I am a Gopher fan first and foremost...I think Brewster has done some good things...I want to see him succeed and believe he deserves year five regardless of how this season goes...but the cold reality is the wins will matter at some point.
 



Mark down "deserves year five regardless of how this season goes". Could come in real handy in a couple months. I particularly don't agree with the "deserves" part. Without some wins in year four I do not think anyone deserves a fifth year.
 

I don't think wins as a single measure alone is worth it.

However, given the rest of the puzzle at Minnesota, I think it is fair to take into account wins in this particular season when weighing Tim Brewster's future at Minnesota.

We're not coming off anything impressive, academically the team is solid, if he doesn't give me reason to believe on the football field we will win a Big Ten Championship, I believe he should be let go.

Rich Rod's story is a little different. He has brought scandal to a proud program--- I think even if he does win he deserves to be shown the door.
 

I wouldn't be too surprised if there were some fans in Ann Arbor who might feel that the Michigan AD is full of crap when he says that wins don't matter. In Ann Arbor, wins do matter, a very great deal. Perhaps the AD who has been sticking with RichRod even after all the trouble and lack of success RichRod has brought to Michigan would try very hard to hide behind the "wins don't matter" spin. Just ask long-time Michigan fans if wins matter or if wins don't matter. You might get some pretty colorful and interesting comments.

At Minnesota, have we really lost a sense of wins mattering? If we have, I would be tempted to say that we must have totally given up then. I fear that the Mason 10-3 season may be the high water mark for forever if we really mean it when we say: "Wins don't matter." That makes me pretty sad for the future of Golden Gopher Football. If that is the way we really feel, I fear it is all over. Why are we even fielding a team if "wins don't matter?" Is the only purpose for football to help pay for non-revenue sports and Title IX sports? Is that what you want? Is that ok? I still think wins matter and they matter a great deal. I want to see some spirit. I want to see some fight. I want to see us take it to Iowa. I want to see us smash Wisconsin. And I want that trophy that we exchange with PSU. I even want the Jug!

Wins matter and wins matter a lot. That is why we built the stadium. That is why we pay a coach over a million bucks a year. And, if this coach can't have us competetive in the Big Ten Conference lets throw him out and bring in a new one. Just like we threw out Mason, Wacker, Gutty, Salem, Stoll and Warmath. If a coach can't bring us wins, what is the point in having a coach. If and AD can't bring us wins, what is the point in having an AD?

But we must never say "wins don't matter." If that is true, nothing matters. What is the point? If football wins don't matter, kill the football program right now. Wins matter people. Wins matter a whole bunch.
 

"Is the only purpose for football to help pay for non-revenue sports and Title IX sports?" I fear that is the top priority of the AD. It is the highest priority he has. Yes, he wants us to win football games as his third or fourth priority for the football program.
 



Wins do matter to me but apparently some fans are big on moral victories alone. It is year four and definitely time to start beating the rivals and improving upon the win totals. I fear though that this may have been another bad coaching hire for this university and wonder when it will end. How many former gopher head coaches in the last 50 years have ever been a head coach at another division 1 program after leaving here, Holtz is the only one I can think of.
 

Nobody here said that wins don't matter, they absolutely do, and are the primary measure of success. But I think the point is that they shouldn't necessarily be the end all be all when evaluating that progress of a football program during certain phases.
 

Here's a different question:

Would 4-8 suffice if the wins were WI, IA, OSU and USC and all the other games were nail biters?

I am not saying the chances of that happening are good, but I think I would take it.
 

BarnBoy said:
Here's a different question:

Would 4-8 suffice if the wins were WI, IA, OSU and USC and all the other games were nail biters?

I am not saying the chances of that happening are good, but I think I would take it.
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Interesting question. My answer? HELL YES. Because this is a young team, and it would show that the team has plenty of talent to compete with the big dogs, and they just need to become more consistent. That comes with maturation and consistency in the coaching staff. I'd be pretty stoked for 2011 too.
 

He's got to win 5 with at least 3 in the Big 10. I know the schedule is rough, but that seems like a minimum. I've always said that he has to have a chance to coach his own guys and this year he will for the most part. Progress has to be shown.
 

INteresting scenario. I would love to beat the 4 teams you mentioned. But I'd also want to know WTF was up with losing to N. IL & USD. That would be the sign of bad coaching. Now going 6-6 with those two games as W's would be a heckuva accomplishment.
 

Max Power said:
He's got to win 5 with at least 3 in the Big 10. I know the schedule is rough, but that seems like a minimum. I've always said that he has to have a chance to coach his own guys and this year he will for the most part. Progress has to be shown.
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How would that show progress? Over what?
 

How about we see how game one goes, then game two, then game three. He will be evaluated every step of the way. If they beat the teams they should and improve each week, expectations will rise. How they handle those expectations is what I am concerned with. Every time in the past the media and fans have become excited, they have fallen flat.

However, Brewster continues to sell the program. Academics seem to be on the rise or at least their has been more positive stories on that front. Walk-on program seeds to be on the rise as well. Mike Max had a quick story on WCCO at 6pm yesterday and had interviews with Rallis and Hoese. They talked about their pride in MN and wanting to walk-on rather than take a scholarship elsewhere. These commitments by Brewster should go a long way.
 

Because of the difficult schedule the total number of wins are not going to matter as much as how competitive the team is in the big games. Especially at the end of the season. We still don't know if we will have a QB who can compete with most of the other QB's in the Big 10. We haven't had one for several seasons.
 

Improvement should be shown in the following ways: Offensively, they HAVE to run the ball better, and block better up front. If we can get a 1,000 yard rusher, or at least get a decent YPC, that will show improvement. On defense, they need to try to maintain the level they were at last year, but be better on third down. I know there will be some (maybe a lot) of miscues because of the youth that is taking over on defense, but I wanna see the defense not lose a step from last year's team.

You could argue that if those things occur, the wins should come, but that's not necessarily the case. Just some bad breaks could turn a potential 9 win season into a 4 win season, as we have seen manifested in the past around here. I think a key for Brewster will just simply be producing "great" moments for the team this year. Beat one of those top four squads at TCF, or come up big in Madison. If you don't do that, then you better win the rest of those games, or at least go 6-1 in them to make up for not providing that "breakthrough" win. If he doesn't do that, he's on the fence, that's just the way it is. Not making a bowl could be devastating for him simply for timing reasons (easier to hire replacement in Nov.), which I believe was mentioned earlier, if he doesn't have one or two signature wins behind it.
 

UpnorthGo4 said:
Because of the difficult schedule the total number of wins are not going to matter as much as how competitive the team is in the big games. Especially at the end of the season. We still don't know if we will have a QB who can compete with most of the other QB's in the Big 10. We haven't had one for several seasons.
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I think there is some truth to your statement but, they need to win the games they should win and be competitive against the stronger competion.

Five is the cuttoff for me, three nonconference and two conference wins at a minimum.

If they are 2-2 nonconference and 2-6 in the conference then I think Brewsters job is at risk. It might depend on how they play at the end of the schedule.

Anything less than that I don't see how you don't cut your loses and make a change. Maturi is probably going to be more patient because it was one of the major decisions he has made as an athletic director.

We still don't know if we will have a QB who can compete with most of the other QB's in the Big 10.

The QB has to be developed over time. Compare Weber with Cupito at the start of their careers. I don't think there is any comparison. Then take a look at expectations going into their senior years. Of all the things about Brewster that position is the one the really jumps out at me. There has been no improvement at all. If you can't develop the talent you have then you are not going to be succesfull no matter how good a recruiter you are.
 

I will not accept a five win season in year four with two Big Ten wins. That would be two Big Ten wins per year for four years. Absurd. Having replaced a team that won 15 games in their last four years. Is 8 larger, about the same or less than 15?
 

Gopherhurrin said:
I will not accept a five win season in year four with two Big Ten wins. That would be two Big Ten wins per year for four years. Absurd. Having replaced a team that won 15 games in their last four years. Is 8 larger, about the same or less than 15?
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Is years 7-10 of a coach's regime larger, about the same or less than years 1-4?
 

Interesting topic.

I think every program is different and is in a much different place. Michigan's athletic director might be correct if he was talking about the Michigan track program but he is nuts if he is talking about football. Rich Rod is killing that program in every possible way and he needs to go.

Now as for the Gophers if this team can't win 5 games Brewster may have to go no matter how many key wins he gets against Iowa or Wisconsin hell if they only win 5 games and two wins are agains those two why didnt they beat anyone else? Some are talking about year #4 for Brewster and that is true but in reality he has only had 3 recruiting classes as he was hired so late he didnt get much of a chance to recruit his own players before his first season. That being said 3 recruiting classes in the books and we have on paper a more talented team than we had when he was hired no matter how much experience they have that talent has to shine through. There is no reason the Gophers cant win 6-8 games and make a bowl game with a good coach at the helm. We have been flip flopping OC's like they were not important over the last 4 years and DC's have been in and out as well. We need someone who will come in and stay for a while. That being said we have talent to win some games now at some point Brewster has to prove he is a coach not just a recruiting coordinator and cheerleader.
 

dpodoll68 said:
Is years 7-10 of a coach's regime larger, about the same or less than years 1-4?
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In year five a coach can recruit better, about the same or worse if he has averaged two Big Ten wins over his first four seasons rather than four Big Ten wins per season?
 

What does it mean to "accept" a season? None of us have the power to hire and fire.
 

Gopherhurrin said:
In year five a coach can recruit better, about the same or worse if he has averaged two Big Ten wins over his first four seasons rather than four Big Ten wins per season?
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We haven't gotten there yet. Every situation is not the same. If recruits only based their decisions on wins and losses, recruiting would be much more cut and dried.
 

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